Tag: 2010

Here is a bipartisan redistricting of Alabama with a slight Democratic lean. My goal was to keep the representation at 4-3 Republican. I know Bobby Bright is a Conservative blue dog so I gave him a heavily Black district. This should make his voting record more Liberal or a Black candidate could easily challenge him in a primary and win. At the same time, I kept Artur Davis’s district majority Black to protect his sucessor if he vacates his seat to run against Richard Shelby. I thought a 4-3 Democratic map would be too risky and too grotesquely gerrymandered. As for the four Republicans, they are all safer than they used to be, including Mike Rogers. I had to make some sacrifices but I thought it would be better if we had 2 solid seats and 1 shaky one instead of just one solid seat and two shaky ones. I still was unable to strengthen Griffith because I could not go Cleo Fields and send a finger down to the Black belt. Still, I could not avoid an extremely grotesque gerrymander but there have been worse. Here are the maps:

This link is for the current map of Alabama http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F…

1st District Jo Banner (R) Blue

Yes, this district grows more convoluted. I added Covington, Geneva counties and Houston Counties to the east which are heavily Republican. I removed Monroe County which leans Republican but has some Democratic areas. The main change to this district was sending a finger from Bobby Bright’s district down to Mobile to take in Black precincts. I kept in Republican parts of Mobile so I probably kept Banner’s home in here. I kept his district contiguous by water with Mobile Bay. The courts may object to this district but since it gets more Republican, Banner should be happy. McCain probably won 70% of the vote here, up from 61% in the old district. Demographics are 16% Black and 77% White. Status is Safe Republican.

2nd District Bobby Bright (D) Green

He keeps his Montgomery County home base but besides that, his district completely changes. I removed heavily Republican southeastern Alabama from his district. I replaced it with all of Montgomery County and some Democratic counties currently in the 3rd such as Macon and the 7th such as Dallas. Yes, this district is the culprit of the Mobile County finger. I sent up the finger to Talladega to stregthen the 2nd and 3rd districts for their respective parties. Overall, I wanted to knock down two birds with one stone in this district. Not only would there be another Black majority district in Alabama that was heavily Democratic, Bobby Bright will have a tough time holding onto the seat if a Black candidate challenges him in the primary. Unless Steve Cohen from Memphis decided to move here and run, Bright should probably lose. A possible candidate would be the Liberal Black mayor of Mobile, Sam Jones. He is pretty old but he was also the first Black mayor of Mobile. Overall, this district looks set to change. Obama probably won 67% of the vote here. Demographics are 57% Black and 38% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

3rd District Mike Rogers (R) Purple

To protect the 2nd district, I had to stregthen Rogers because it was impossible to make the 2nd district safe and keep the 3rd vulnerable. Rogers won only 53% of the vote in 2008 against Democrat Joshua Segall so Rogers should be thrilled with the new plan. I made some drastic changes to protect him by removing heavily Democratic Montgomery, Macon and part of Russel Counties. I added heavily Republican counties to the south of the old district. As a bonus, I removed Segall’s home in Montgomery into the 2nd so Rogers now has no strong challenger. Just to shake Rogers up, I removed his home and put it in the 4th district. Overall, I reduced the Black percentage from 33% to 22%, so McCain win to probably 66% of the vote here. Demographics are 22% Black and 72% White. Status is Safe Republican.

4th District Rodney Aderholt (R) Red

I made some minor changes to the district but McCain still crushed Obama here. I removed Cullman and Blount Counties, both areas where residents of Birmingham are moving. More than 70% of the old district’s residents lived in rural areas and more do now. I added Calhoun and Clerburne Counties, both rural and heavily Republican. Those counties explain the makeup of the entire district. McCain probably won 73% of the vote here, a bit lower than the current percentage but not much different. Demographics are 8% Black and 85% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

5th District Parker Griffith (D) Yellow

This was the district that is closest to its current form. I could not move it at all because this was the safest district I could make for Griffith. I hope we can keep him and if he survives 2010, he probably will keep winning. The problem is that in 2008 when he was elected, there was high Black turnout. In 2010, it should be normal unless Artur Davis runs for U.S Senate. Since Blacks are only 17% of the district’s population, they do not make a big impact. I want most blue dogs to become Liberals but Griffith should remain as Conservative as he wants, he is another vote for a Democratic speaker. McCain probably won 61% of the vote here. Demographics are 17% Black and 74% White. Status is Lean Democrat.

6th District Spencer Baucus (R) Teal

On the most part, I was able to leave Baucus alone. His old district was the most Republican district in the U.S in 2008 and should be even more so. I removed Chilton and Coosa Counties which are Republican but not as Republican as Cullman and Blount Counties which I put into the district. I pushed this district further out of slow growing Jefferson County so overall, I reduced the Black percentage from 11% to 8%. McCain probably won 80% of the vote here. Demographics are 8% Black and 85% White. Status is Safe Republican.

7th District Artur Davis (D) Gray

Davis is currently the only Black member of Congress in Alabama. He may no longer be if he gets the nomination to become Governor in 2010. I feel that no one has viewed Davis as a formidable candidate. He might appeal to some white voters because he is pretty Conservative on a few issues. He could be the Harold Ford of Alabama without the corrupt family background. In Tennessee, Ford lost to moderate (for the South) Republican Bob Corker. Shelby is a Conservative and a turncoat which he probably could not use to his advantage. If Davis can bring Black turnout up to 30%, he would have to win about 30% of the white vote to win. In Alabama, this appears hard to do but Davis has a shot. Back to the district, I barely kept the 7th district majority Black because I had to trade some areas such as Hale County with the 2nd and I took in more of Jefferson County for population purposes. Even with the reduced Obama percentage, I expect Davis or his replacement to win. Obama probably won 59% of the vote here. Demographics are 51% Black and 44% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

I am worried about the Colorado Governorship but the Democrats should still control one part of the State Legislature. They have large majorities in both houses. This calls for an incumbent protection plan even though I already expect one because the Democrats want to protect Betsy Markey and John Salazar. Salazar seems pretty safe but I decided to protect him anyway because eventually, the Republicans will find a strong challenger. The two other Republicans should have no problems under this plan. Here are the maps:

District 1 Diana De Gette (D) Blue

This district resembles Betsy Markey’s current district a bit because I extended it out into the heavily Republican prairie. Even though these counties are heavily Republican, they have barely any people. Since Denver is so Democratic, Republicans have no chance at this district. To satisfy minority politicians, this district is also minority majority. Obama probably won 69% of the vote here. Demographics are 8% Black, 38% Hispanic and 48% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 2 Jared Polis (D) Green

Okay, I did not make everyone stronger. I sent Polis’s district out to the Utah border to include Mesa County (Grand Junction) which McCain won by 20,000 votes. Polis should not worry because Boulder County (Boulder) went for Obama by 80,000 votes. Excluding the slice of Jefferson and Adams Counties, the vote results for the new 2nd district were Obama 174,567 and McCain 116,890. I estimate Obama won about 56% of the vote in the Jefferson and Adams County portions so Obama probably won 59% of the vote in the district.  Polis is a Boulder Liberal and the district should be Democratic enough to protect him. Demographics are 13% Hispanic and 81% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 3 John Salazar (D) Purple

I removed Grand Junction and nearby Republican counties in return for more ski resort counties in the Rocky Mountains like Eagle County. The Jefferson County part I added should not interrupt the district because it only has about 14% of the district’s population. Overall, Obama probably won 55% of the vote here. Salazar won here easily but now, I am sure he will win reelection here until he retires. Demographics are 22% Hispanic and 72% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 4 Betsy Markey (D) Red

Obama barely lost the old district because it had most of the heavily Republican counties to the east. I took those out and exchanged them with some Democratic territory in Adams County. The 4th district still has Republican Weld County but its votes should be offset by Adams County. Obama probably won 53-54% of the vote here, enough to protect Freshman Betsy Markey. Demographics are 19% Hispanic and 75% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

District 5 Doug Lamborn (R) Yellow

This district was already heavily Republican, even though Obama did much better here than Kerry. Those eastern counties needed to get into a district so I chose this one. Since it retains its base at Colorado Springs, Lamborn should be here indefinitely. McCain probably won 61% of the vote here. Demographics are 5% Black and 14% Hispanic. Status is Safe Republican.

District 6 Mike Coffman (R) Teal

Coffman gets a boost too under the new map. He loses small portions of Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties which lean Democratic. Since Douglas County is the fastest growing county in Colorado, the 6th district does not need much new territory to balance population. I also added heavily Republican Teller County. Overall, the district becomes more Republican. In the later part of the 2010’s, the district might become shaky as more Democrats move into the suburbs. For now, Coffman is safe unless he faces an extremely hard challenge. McCain probably won 55% of the vote. Status is Safe/Likely Republican.

District 7 Ed Perlmutter (D) Gray

I kept the district mostly the way it was. The changes I made were taking out Republican parts of Adams County, a bit of Jefferson and I added a touch of Denver. These changes should make the district even more Democratic, ensuring Perlmutter’s safety. I decided it was too risky to try to swap some territory with the 6th district to weaken Coffman. It would not be worth it because there will be Republican years. The Democratic incumbents need to be as safe as possible. Obama probably won 62% of the vote here. Demographics are 7% Black, 23% Hispanic and 62% White. Status is Safe Democrat.  

With little over a year to go until the 2010 midterm elections I thought it would be interesting to look at recent history to see if it is at all likely that Republicans could take control over the House of Representatives.

In recent weeks several pundits have opined that the decling popularity of the Obama presidency and the Democratic congress makes this a least a possibility. I for one have been skeptical.

The GOP would need to pickup 40 seats to have a majority of 1. We know that in 1994 a large number of the Republican gains were in open seats but at the moment there are only four Democrats vacating. Looking back at the waves of 2006 and 2008 we find that Democrats picked up 30 and 21 seats respectively. In terms of incumbents the numbers are 22 for 2006 and 14 for 2008. What I was interested in looking at was the percentage of the vote each of these incumbents scored in the election before the year of their defeat. In other words in 2004 and 2006.

These are the 22 GOP incumbents defeated in 2006 in descending order of their winning percentage in 2004:

Don Sherwood (PA-10) 93%

Henry Bonilla (TX-23) 69%

Sue Kelly (NY-19) 67%

John Sweeney (NY-20) 66%

Jeb Bradley (NH-01) 63%

Melissa Hart (PA-04) 63%

Clay Shaw (FL-22) 63%

Richard Pombo (CA-11) 61%

Gil Gutknecht (MN-01) 60%

Nancy Johnson (CT-05) 60%

Anne Northup (KY-03) 60%

Jim Leach (IA-02) 59%

JD Hayworth (AZ-05) 59%

Kurt Weldon (PA-07) 59%

Charlie Bass (NH-02) 58%

Jim Ryun (KS-02) 56%

Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08) 55%

Charles Taylor (NC-11) 55%

Rob Simmons (CT-02) 54%

Chris Chocola (IN-02) 54%

Jim Hostettler (IN-08) 53%

Mike Sodrel (IN-09) 49%

For sake of clarity I am exluding Shelley Sekula-Gibbs from this list despite the fact she won a special election to replace Tom Delay so in theory TX-22 wasn’t an open seat on election day.

The first thing that struck me was the number of incumbents that were defeated having won easily in 2004. But then looking at the seats in detail it is clear that several of those winning with larger margins were to become plauged by scandal by 2006 or in the case of Henry Bonilla see changes to the demographics of their district.

These are the 14 GOP incumbents defeated in 2008 in descending order of their winning percentage in 2006:

Virgil Goode (VA-05) 59%

Tom Feeney (FL-24) 58%

Phil English (PA-03) 54%

Ric Keller (FL-08) 53%

Steve Chabot (OH-01) 52%

Joe Knollenberg (MI-09) 52%

Randy Kuhl (NY-29) 52%

Chris Shays (CT-04) 52%

Thelma Drake (VA-02) 51%

Tim Walberg (MI-07) 50%

Robin Hayes (NC-08) 50%

Bill Sali (ID-01) 50%

Jon Porter (NV-03) 48%

Marylin Musgrave (CO-04) 46%

The average for 2006 was 60% which thrilled me considerably since this is exactly the arbitary cutoff I’ve been using in my mind in trying to judge which Dems are vulnerable next year. The average for 2008 was 52% which is understandable due to the nature of back-to-back waves. Because of this I think the 2006 figure is a more sensible comparison to what me might expect next year in a worst case scenario.

So using this figure which Democratic incumbents are threatened? As you can see the list is worryingly long, much longer than I was expecting. I have split the list into two – seats won in districts won by John McCain (22) which in theory should be most vulnerable and seats won by the president (34) which shouldn’t be considered necessarily safe.

McCain Dems elected with less than 60% in 2008:

Frank Kratovil (MD-01) 49% R+13

Bobby Bright (AL-02) 50% R+16

Tom Perriello (VA-05) 50% R+5

Walt Minnick (ID-01) 51% R+18

Eric Massa (NY-29) 51% R+5

Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03) 51% R+3

Parker Griffith (AL-05) 52% R+12

Chet Edwards (TX-17) 53% R+20

Harry Mitchell (AZ-05) 53% R+5

Travis Childers (MS-01) 55% R+14

Gabby Giffords (AZ-08) 55% R+4

Jim Boccieri (OH-16) 55% R+4

Chris Carney (PA-10) 56% R+8

Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01) 56% R+6

Jason Altmire (PA-04) 56% R+6

Betsy Markey (CO-04) 56% R+6

Harry Teague (NM-02) 56% R+6

Jim Marshall (GA-08) 57% R+10

Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) 57% R+4

Baron Hill (IN-09) 58% R+6

John Murtha (PA-12) 58% R+1

Lincoln Davis (TN-04) 59% R+13

Obama Dems elected with less than 60% in 2008:

Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15) 46% D+1

Dina Titus (NV-03) 47% D+2

Mark Schauer (MI-07) 49% R+2

Scott Murphy (NY-20) 50% R+2

Jim Himes (CT-04) 51% D+5

Glenn Nye (VA-02) 52% R+5

Alan Grayson (FL-08) 52% R+2

Michael Arcuri (NY-24) 52% R+2

John Adler (NJ-03) 52% R+1

Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01) 52% R+0

Steve Driehaus (OH-01) 52% D+1

Gary Peters (MI-09) 52% D+2

Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) 52% D+4

Steve Kagen (WI-08) 54% D+0

Kurt Schrader (OR-05) 54% D+1

Jerry McNerney (CA-11) 55% R+1

Larry Kissell (NC-08) 55% R+2

Ron Klein (FL-22) 55% D+1

Gerry Connolly (VA-11) 55% D+2

Dan Maffei (NY-25) 55% D+3

Chellie Pingree (ME-01) 55% D+8

Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23) 56% R+4

Dennis Moore (KS-03) 56% R+3

Leonard Boswell (IA-03) 56% D+1

Martin Heinrich (NM-01) 56% D+5

Patrick Murphy (PA-07) 57% D+3

Dave Loebsack (IA-02) 57% D+7

Solomon Ortiz (TX-27) 58% R+2

Debbie Halvorson (IL- 11) 58% R+1

Bill Foster (IL-14) 58% R+1

Tim Bishop (NY-01) 58% R+0

John Hall (NY-19) 59% R+3

Chris Murphy (CT-05) 59% D+2

John Yarmuth (KY-03) 59% D+2

Sobering isn’t it. However, I don’t think it very likely any of the seats with a Dem PVI will be lost except perhaps OH-15 and maybe OH-01, WI-08 and NV-03. That leaves 20 Obama Dems. Obviously there are seats that may look vulnerable outside these, including open seats but my thinking is that those will cancel out the seats in my list that will never materialize as even the slightest bit competitive. What I was interested in initially was to see if there was a total number of seats that make it even possible for the Republicans to take the House. It looks like the answer (42) is yes but only just. I’m sure the way I’ve come to this conclusion will look to many like I’ve pulled the number out my ass but it seems to me as good a way as any and at least it is based on real numbers from the recent past.

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

David asked me to do a quick example of how I do my redistricting, so I decided to use a relatively ‘easy’ state, Wisconsin, since it has townships. In the same way I wouldn’t drive a car or ride a bike without brakes (yes, fixie riders, the laws of physics hate you too), I don’t want to redistrict without having both sets of information.

Before you start, take a look at the state, and try to think how much detail you’re going to want to go into. I usually do townships/municipalities when available, but sometimes precincts. For Wisconsin, I’m going shooting for 7-1, by making the 1st and 6th more Democratic. Wisconsin doesn’t have precinct-level census data, so we’ll have to stick with townships. I really do want to split the city of Milwaukee though, so we’re going to do some estimating in just a little bit.

So now, here’s a quick overview of the process ahead:

1. Collect political and population data

2. Aggregate data together into one spreadsheet

3. Prepare a GIS shapefile (we’ll get into that) for the precinct and precinct-equivalents we’re going to use.

4. Import data from the spreadsheet into shapefile

5. Redistrict!

Follow me over the flip…

You’ll also need a few things:

a) GIS software (I use MapWindow GIS)

b) Microsoft Excel

c) An image editor program, like MS Paint, Photoshop or GIMP

d) A database file (.dbf) editor (Excel 2003 works for this, Excel 07 does not)

Let’s get started with the data.

Political data for Wisconsin is rather easy to do, everything comes in a nice spreadsheet. (Get it here.).

With that in hand, let’s get the population data. This will take a bit of work. Luckily, we have American FactFinder. Scroll down to “Census 2000 Redistricting Data” and select custom table. Let’s get the data for municipalities, so click “geo within geo”, select county subdivision within a state. Add all the county subdivisions of Wisconsin, and then hit next. Choose race, and then total population. Nothing in Wisconsin is VRA protected, so we don’t have to worry about racial breakdown. Now you’ll get a table, which conveniently, you can download by going to print/download. Now you have two nice spreadsheets.

Now that we have two spreadsheets, we have to combine them. This process is pretty arduous, but if you sort everything alphabetically, just copy and paste the two together and run a spot check. Make sure you watch out for any jurisdictions starting with “St.” or “Mc” – the Census Bureau aggregates them as ‘Saint’ and ‘Mac’, something Excel won’t do for you. With the political data, we can get to map making!

So first, we need a map template. Luckily for us, the Census Bureau keeps those on hand in its TIGER/LINE database. Since we’re only using municipalities, we can just download one file, 2000 County Subdivision. Of course, a shapefile is actually several different files, we’ll concern ourselves with two: the .shp, the shapefile itself; and the .dbf, the attribute file that we’ll be editing.

In my maps, I like to have both some political data and population data. Since we’re not worried about racial composition, I only add two sets of data to the attribute file: the population, and the Obama-McCain margin. Population is straightforward, obviously. I calculate the Obama-McCain margin, round up to the nearest percent, and then add 100 (MapWindow doesn’t like negative numbers too much), so theoretically, margins will range between 0 and 200.

Now pop open your MapWindow GIS, and click “Attribute Table Editor”. Under Edit, select “Add Field”. Call the new attribute whatever you want (I’d suggest something intuitive, like “Population” or “08 Margin”, but that’s just me). They’re both integers, and width of 10 is fine. Make sure you do this step before opening your .dbf.

Close out of MapWindow and open your .dbf so we can add our new data. Now we’re tempted to sort by County FIPS and township name (NAMELSAD00), but don’t just yet! Shapefiles require that the attribute file keep the EXACT order of attributes in their original order, so make sure you create a new column of numbers so you can get them back into their original places. Add the population and political info (again minding your Macs and your Saints). There are also ghost shapes called “County subdivision not defined”, which unsurprisingly occurs in counties like Kenosha, Racine, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Sheboygan, etc… Just mind those as well so all our created data gets assigned to the right shapes. [Alternatively, you can also use the VLOOKUP function to match if so you’re so inclined and don’t want to worry about order.]

Finally, we can get to map making. I like to map a few maps before any gerrymandering actually happens: one with political data, and one blank “precinct” map that you can color in your image editor to keep track of what you’ve done so far. In the legend sidebar, right-click on the name of your shapefile, and select “Properties”. Here you can edit a whole bunch of stuff on how you want your shapefile to look, from fill color to line width to transparency. Here, we want to create a coloring scheme. Click on coloring scheme, and you’ll get a pop-up menu. For field, select your margin field. Then, hit the plus sign to add colors. You’ll have to choose your colors. Under the values field, you can pick the values for which MapWindow will apply that color. You can do ranges, like “0 – 100” (this is why we wanted to avoid negative numbers). I use a 7-color scale, which is 13 in total (6 Dem, 6 Rep, and 1 for an exact tie).

With that in hand, you can take screenshots of your maps using Edit->Copy->Map. For finer resolutions, I usually zoom in a bit, take multiple screenshots, and piece them together in an image editor. Now you can get to gerrymandering. To keep running totals of population and political data, in my Excel sheet, I create a column for “District”, and have a series of “SUMIF” statements. This way, as I assign precincts to a district, we get a running total. In states that have VRA protected districts, we can also track the racial composition of a district as we go along. Use your blank precinct map to keep track on a visual basis of what you’ve assigned. MapWindow is helpful here, as its “Identify” function can tell you the name of precincts you’re looking at. If you’re feeling efficient, you can select multiple precincts (holding CTRL), and viewing them all using the ‘Attribute Table Editor’. You can copy all the info out of the Attribute Table into Excel.

Now, all that work comes for the fun part: gerrymander away!

Once you’re done, you can make maps of your finished plan. You can use the precinct map you’ve been using to keep a running track, or we can go back into MapWindow. You can add a new attribute for “District” into the .dbf, as we did before. (Add field in MapWindow first, then use your .dbf editor. Again, make sure the shapes are in the exact order as you found them in.) You can then assign a new coloring scheme based on district number. There are plenty of things you can do at this point, like labeling county names using the County Shapefile, or labeling municipality names (I don’t recommend this, as this will clutter your screen beyond recognition). From here, the choices are endless.

Now, I did actually do a map of Wisconsin. I went a few steps further and divided the city of Milwaukee into precincts. Unfortunately, Census didn’t keep track of those, so I pieced together the city block by block, all 7,394 of them. I won’t go into detail on that, but my plan does split the city between two districts, much like the pre-2000 map.

I’ll cut the usual fluff I put here, since I made you read this far, haven’t I?

Here’s the new map:

And here’s an inset of Milwaukee County, with municipalities labeled.

District by district, we have:

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
1	670,184	216,461	138,012	60.30%	38.45%
Kenosha	149,577	45,836	31,609	58.38%	40.26%
Milwaukee	305,170	109,975	56,748	65.12%	33.60%
Ozaukee	0,103	0,053	0,026	67.09%	32.91%
Racine	167,842	48,846	37,464	55.97%	42.93%
Walworth	47,492	11,751	12,165	48.48%	50.19%

As I said at the outset, I wanted to draw Paul Ryan out. Plus, keeping Kenosha and Racine attached to Janesville required going through Republican Walworth County, something that made gerrymandering quite difficult. Thus, the new 1st sheds Rock County and instead climbs further through Milwaukee, grabbing St. Francis, South Milwaukee, and Cudahy, through some lakefront precincts to downtown, up the East Side, through to the Democratic-leaning North Shore towns. Kenosha County remains in its entirety, while the nastier parts of northwest Racine County are stripped out and packed into the Republican 5th. Obama’s performance in this 45% Milwaukee, 25% Racine, and 22% Kenosha district is up to 60%, up 9%.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
2	670,284	274,235	133,998	66.36%	32.43%
Columbia	5,154	1,697	1,174	58.34%	40.36%
Dane	426,526	205,984	73,065	72.93%	25.87%
Dodge	54,056	13,367	13,699	48.77%	49.98%
Jefferson	74,021	21,448	21,096	49.80%	48.98%
Rock	64,260	19,313	11,644	61.52%	37.09%
Walworth	46,267	12,426	13,320	47.72%	51.15%

Gains have to come from somewhere, and Tammy Baldwin’s 2nd and Gwen Moore’s 4th are where the Democrats that are weakened somewhat to boost the 1st, 3rd, 6th, and 7th. However, this district is still centered on Dane County and Madison. Instead of looking south and north, this district looks east, taking in the entirety of Jefferson County and parts of Rock, Walworth, and Dodge County. Home to UW-M, UW-Whitewater, and Beloit College, this district featured Obama at 66.4%, a drop of 3%. 63.6% of this district’s residents still live in Dane County, so I’m not too concerned.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
3	670,351	214,972	151,028	57.89%	40.67%
Barron	44,963	12,078	10,457	52.89%	45.79%
Buffalo	13,804	3,949	2,923	56.45%	41.79%
Burnett	15,674	4,337	4,200	50.03%	48.45%
Crawford	17,243	4,987	2,830	62.70%	35.58%
Dunn	39,858	13,002	9,566	56.72%	41.73%
Grant	49,597	14,875	9,068	61.29%	37.36%
Green	33,647	11,502	6,730	62.23%	36.41%
Iowa	22,780	7,987	3,829	66.85%	32.05%
La Crosse	107,120	38,524	23,701	61.13%	37.61%
Lafayette	16,137	4,732	2,984	60.49%	38.14%
Pepin	7,213	2,102	1,616	55.74%	42.85%
Pierce	36,804	11,803	9,812	53.59%	44.55%
Polk	41,319	10,876	11,282	48.18%	49.98%
Richland	17,924	5,041	3,298	59.77%	39.10%
Rock	88,047	31,216	15,720	65.58%	33.02%
St. Croix	63,155	21,177	22,837	47.38%	51.09%
Trempealeau	27,010	8,321	4,808	62.59%	36.16%
Vernon	28,056	8,463	5,367	60.22%	38.19%

Ron Kind gets a small boost too, from the inclusion of half of Rock County in his district. Ron Kind sheds Eau Claire to boost the 7th, but picks up Green and Rock from Baldwin and Burnett and Polk from Obey. Kind’s base of La Crosse stays, as does plenty of the dairy country that Kind’s been representing for years. You’re indeed right that Paul Ryan’s house in Janesville gets put in here, but Kind is favored in a Kind-Ryan matchup in this 57.9% Obama district, up half a percent. Paul Ryan’s represented 9% of this district before. Ron Kind’s representing 67% of this district – I’ll let you decide.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
4	670,531	218,908	106,663	66.63%	32.47%
Milwaukee	634,994	209,844	92,697	68.75%	30.37%
Waukesha	35,537	9,064	13,966	38.91%	59.96%

As I’ve said, Gwen Moore bears the other brunt of redistricting. She keeps the western half on Milwaukee County – including the heart of Milwaukee and some suburbs, plus Menomonee Falls in Waukesha. Not to fear though, Obama still got 66.63% here, a drop of about 9%. Still, in this 95% Milwaukee, 5% Waukesha district, a Democrat has the clear advantage.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
5	670,746	152,723	260,690	36.57%	62.43%
Columbia	1,983	0,328	0,747	30.04%	68.41%
Dodge	31,841	5,816	9,316	37.93%	60.76%
Fond du Lac	40,923	9,025	13,722	39.17%	59.55%
Green Lake	19,105	4,000	5,393	42.01%	56.64%
Ozaukee	82,214	20,526	32,146	38.59%	60.44%
Racine	20,989	4,562	8,490	34.61%	64.40%
Sheboygan	25,362	4,897	9,913	32.61%	66.02%
Washington	117,493	25,719	47,729	34.63%	64.27%
Waukesha	325,230	76,275	131,186	36.45%	62.69%
Winnebago	5,606	1,575	2,048	42.92%	55.80%

Sensenbrenner gets a boost too, as all the Republican votes of the Milwaukee suburbs and the Fox Valley get packed here. The trifecta of Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha counties are brutal for any Democrat (let’s not forget that Bush had a margin coming out of Greater Milwaukee!). Meanwhile, the North Shore of Milwaukee is removed – those were Democratic votes thrown in for no good reason. Throw in the unpalatable parts of Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, and Dodge County, and you’ve got this 37% Obama district.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
6	670,599	195,883	157,909	54.60%	44.02%
Adams	18,643	5,806	3,974	58.36%	39.95%
Calumet	40,631	13,295	12,722	50.31%	48.15%
Columbia	45,331	14,636	10,272	58.09%	40.77%
Fond du Lac	56,373	14,438	14,442	49.47%	49.48%
Jackson	19,100	5,572	3,552	60.24%	38.40%
Juneau	24,316	6,186	5,148	53.80%	44.77%
Manitowoc	82,887	22,428	19,234	53.00%	45.45%
Marquette	15,832	4,068	3,654	51.92%	46.64%
Monroe	40,899	10,198	8,666	53.33%	45.32%
Sauk	55,225	18,617	11,562	60.92%	37.84%
Sheboygan	87,284	25,498	20,888	54.30%	44.48%
Waushara	23,154	5,868	5,770	49.64%	48.82%
Winnebago	151,157	46,592	35,898	55.65%	42.88%
Wood	9,767	2,681	2,127	54.81%	43.49%

The 6th would be the elusive seventh Democratic district in the state, and I had to reach for this one. There was potential in the old 6th, but just need to be developed further. As a result, instead of Republican leaning Dodge County, this district goes farther west and southwest, grabbing Columbia and parts of Baraboo from the 2nd, and some more counties from the 3rd. It sheds the southern half (read: Republican half) of Sheboygan, all of Fond du Lac outside of a few towns and Fond du Lac proper, and Green Lake County. What we get is a district that Obama got 54.6% in, winning each county part except Fond du Lac, which he lost by 4 votes. This district won’t necessarily elect a Democrat – the Fox Valley isn’t exactly a Democratic stronghold, but it’s certainly more likely this way.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
7	670,602	207,247	150,865	56.98%	41.48%
Ashland	16,866	5,818	2,634	68.01%	30.79%
Bayfield	15,013	5,972	3,365	63.22%	35.62%
Chippewa	55,195	16,239	13,492	53.82%	44.72%
Clark	33,557	7,454	6,383	52.76%	45.18%
Douglas	43,287	15,830	7,835	65.93%	32.63%
Eau Claire	93,142	33,146	20,959	60.38%	38.18%
Iron	6,861	1,914	1,464	55.83%	42.71%
Langlade	20,740	5,182	5,081	49.92%	48.95%
Lincoln	29,641	8,424	6,519	55.40%	42.87%
Marathon	125,834	36,367	30,345	53.65%	44.77%
Oneida	12,802	4,029	3,913	50.07%	48.63%
Portage	67,182	24,817	13,810	63.15%	35.14%
Price	15,822	4,559	3,461	55.76%	42.33%
Rusk	15,347	3,855	3,253	53.14%	44.84%
Sawyer	16,196	4,765	4,199	52.52%	46.29%
Taylor	19,680	4,563	4,586	48.94%	49.19%
Vilas	1,613	0,591	0,809	41.68%	57.05%
Washburn	16,036	4,693	4,303	51.56%	47.28%
Wood	65,788	19,029	14,454	55.89%	42.45%

Obey’s district gets a boost too. Dave doesn’t really need the help, but should he retire, nothing should be up to chance. Not too much changes – 81% of the district is a carryover from the current 7th, but the Minneapolis exurbs are shed in exchange for Eau Claire. Obama got 57% here, an improvement of 1%.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
8	670,378	196,782	163,228	53.95%	44.75%
Brown	226,778	67,269	55,854	54.02%	44.85%
Door	27,961	10,142	7,112	58.14%	40.77%
Florence	5,088	1,134	1,512	42.33%	56.44%
Forest	10,024	2,673	1,963	57.13%	41.95%
Kewaunee	20,187	5,902	4,711	54.81%	43.75%
Marinette	43,384	11,195	9,726	52.77%	45.84%
Menominee	4,562	1,257	0,185	86.81%	12.78%
Oconto	35,634	9,927	8,755	52.42%	46.23%
Oneida	23,974	7,878	5,717	57.00%	41.36%
Outagamie	160,971	50,294	39,677	55.04%	43.42%
Shawano	40,664	10,259	9,538	51.14%	47.55%
Vilas	19,420	5,900	6,246	47.97%	50.78%
Waupaca	51,731	12,952	12,232	50.85%	48.02%

Lastly, we have the 8th, centered still on Green Bay and Appleton. Intentionally, I didn’t tweak too much since Steve Kagen seems to be getting slowly entrenched. 96.5% of the district is the same as the old 8th, including Kagen’s base in Outagamie County. With some rearranging of precincts in Oneida and Vilas counties moves the balance 0.4% to the left, to 53.9% Obama.

Yes, this is my first diary about my home state and my second diary not involving redistricting. I have noticed many of you (including myself) believe that Democrats will gain seats in the California State Senate, State Assembly and in U.S House Representation. Even though the Democrats are falling nationally, they should not be falling in California. If the Republicans cannot reach out to Hispanics (a Survey USA poll on July 25th showed that 73% of California Hispanics approve of Obama’s job,) Democrats should have a good year in California, especially southern California. It should take an election or two to have Californians vote more Democratic at a statewide level. So a 50% for McCain win in a State Senate district would probably rank Lean Republican, not a Toss Up. Here is an analysis of the first ten State Senate Districts up for reelection (in 2010, only the even numbered districts are up for reelection.) I will post a diary about the other ten (eventually.) Overall, Democrats should gain 1-2 seats. Here is a link to the map of the California State Senate districts.

http://www.sen.ca.gov/~newsen/…

This link is for the California State Assembly Districts

http://www.legislature.ca.gov/…

State Senate District 2 Pat Wiggins (D)

We are lucky that her district is not trending Republican anytime soon. Here is a basic overview of Wiggins: July 13th, State Senate passes bill introduced by Wiggins to help rid Sonoma County of domestic violence.  On June 22nd, the State Senate passed a Wiggins bill that supports expanding Marine Sanctuaries off the coast of California. On June 3rd, the State Senate passed two Wiggins bills that expanded solar power opportunities and production. We should not lose her until 2014. Her district voted 69% for Obama. The demographics as of 2000 are 5% Black, 7% Asian and 16% Hispanic.

Status is Safe Democrat.

State Senate District 4 Sam Aanestad (R)

Aanestad’s website says that his main priorities are protecting Northern California water and rural health care. He will not fight for those issues for long. He is term limited out in 2010.  Two Republicans are lined up to take his seat. They are Rick Keene and Doug LaMalfa. Rick Keene is the former Assemblyman from the 3rd district and he lives in Chico. He supports low taxes and is a big supporter of North State water rights (since the water is shared with other parts of the state and reservoirs are low, water rights are a big issue in North State. ) Keene also promises to fight for “Conservative values.” Those include deregulation and getting rid of environmental burdens. I would not vote for Keene. LaMalfa seems to be a favorite. His website is more organized because he has the endorsements page up while Keene’s says “endorsements coming soon.” LaMalfa endorsements are influential and they include most of the sheriffs and district attorneys of the 4th district. Also, the State Senate Republican Leader Dennis Hollingsworth and the Assistant Leader Mimi Walters support LaMalfa. LaMalfa was in the State Assembly and represented the 2nd district. He is against high taxes but he is inconsistent on his views like some “Libertarians.” His website says quote, “Doug LaMalfa’s firm beliefs are that government should do no harm and that limited government means government should do only what people cannot do for themselves, in the most efficient manner possible,” unquote. Yet his website also says quote, “Doug helped lead Northern California efforts to protect marriage on both Proposition 22 and Proposition 8 that reaffirmed marriage is only between one man and one woman,” unquote. He can campaign for the government’s right to prevent people from marrying who they love as much as he wants. He should at least remove the line about supporting small government off his site! Something people CAN do for themselves is marry so why should LaMalfa interfere? Besides an endorsements page, his volunteer page is more developed and he has people sign up for email alerts, unlike Keene’s website. That leads me to believe that LaMalfa will win because he has better organization. No clear Democrat has emerged yet. His district voted 54% for McCain. The demographics are 4% Asian and 12% Hispanic. Status is Safe Republican.

State Senate District 6 Darrel Steinberg (D)

Steinberg is the President Pro Tempore of the State Senate. He succeeded Don Perata who carried a concealed gun due to death threats from anti gun control advocates. Steinberg hit the news for filing a lawsuit against Schwarzenegger because some of the budget cuts may be unconstitutional. He will be President Pro Tempore until he reaches term limits. Obama won 64% of the vote in his district. Demographics are 14% Black, 15% Asian and 18% Hispanic. Status is Safe Democrat.

State Senate District 8 Leland Yee (D)

Yee has a spotty background but at least he works hard in the State Senate. On August 17th, the Assembly approved SB 242 which Yee authored. SB 242 says that people cannot be denied a job based on the language they speak. Yee should not worry about a Republican challenge. He may worry about Tom Ammiano, a State Assemblyman from San Francisco. Ammiano was elected in 2008 but he is active in San Francisco. He ran for mayor in 1999 and was a San Francisco Supervisor. Ammiano is very Liberal, even for San Francisco. I expect that Ammiano may pass on this seat to wait for 2014, when Yee and he are term limited out of their seats. If he ran for 2010, I do not expect him to win. The reason is that Yee’s district is more working class and not as ultra Liberal as Ammiano’s Assembly district. Ammiano will definitely run to the left so I do not see him winning. Yee appears safe because he has a large presence in the area. He was elected to the State Assembly in 2002. Obama won 76% of the vote here. Demographics are 16% Hispanic and 35% Asian. Status is Safe Democrat.

State Senate District 10 Ellen Corbett (D)

Corbett is fighting hard to prevent a NUMMI plant in Fremont from being closed. On August 21st, she rallied with workers at the plant. No Republican has a shot at winning this district because it is too Democratic. She has had a presence in this district for more than 10 years. With no looming baggage, she should have an easy ride through 2010. Obama won 71% of the vote here. Demographics are 7% Black, 21% Hispanic and 32% Asian. Status is Safe Democrat.

State Senate District 12 Jeff Denham (R) Term Limited Out!

If Democrats want to gain a 2/3 majority, they have to pick up seats such as Denham’s. With a Republican incumbent gone, Democrats have a great shot at it with a 13% registration advantage and 46% Hispanic population as of 2000. State Assemblyman from Modesto Tom Berryhill (R) might look at the race. He does not live in it but as we learned from carpetbagger Tom McClintock, people can just move to a suitable district and run. If I were him, I would probably stay in his safe district containing Republican parts of Modesto and the Sierras. He is term limited out in 2012. Possible Democratic candidates include Anna Caballero from Salinas. She is not term limited out until 2012. She said is interested in running but has not formerly announced yet. Her background includes chairing the Youth Violence Prevention Committee and representing unions in a strike. Other candidates include Luis Alejo (D), an attorney from Watsonville. Jamie De La Cruz (D) will run if Caballero does not run. Francisco Dominguez (D) from Gilroy has worked on a school board for 12 years. He will run if Caballero decides not to run. He said, “I’m very frustrated, just like other folks, about what’s happening in Sacramento – not being able to resolve the budget and deliver to residents,” he said. “There needs to be more cooperation in the legislature. My style is to resolve conflict.” Rick Rivas (D) was Caballero’s campaign manager in 2006 so I assume he will run if Caballero decides not to run. The last candidate is Eugenia Sanchez (D) who is the mayor of Hollister and served on Hollister’s School Board. It is too early to tell who will win if Caballero runs. If someone from the Central Valley jumps in, that person could sweep the Central Valley while the other candidates split the Coastal area. If Caballero runs, the other candidates may defer to her. If they do not, I still believe she should win. The reason is that all the other candidates are Hispanic; they will split the Hispanic vote while Caballero sweeps the white vote. A Hispanic candidate would have a better chance to win this district because he or she could generate a large Hispanic turnout. The primary could damage the Democrats but it looks like the Democrats should win. Obama won 58% of the vote here. The Demographics are 46% Hispanic and 42% White. Status is Lean Democrat.

58%

State Senate District 14 Dave Cogdill (R)

Cogdill was the Senate Republican Leader from April 2008 to February, 2009. He seems to be in touch with his district because he supports cleaner air quality, low taxes and agricultural groups. One bill he proposed would cut red tape for agricultural vehicles but also protect the environment. He appears to be Conservative on most issues but moderate on others. He joined Darrel Steinberg and Schwarzenegger to campaign for the May 19th budget propositions. Since he is term limited out in 2014, he should be reelected in 2010. McCain won 56% of the vote. Demographics are 28% Hispanic and 5% Asian. Status is Safe Republican.

State Senate District 16 Dean Florez (D)

Florez appears to be sitting in the light of power. He became Senate Majority Leader in 2008 and will run for Lieutenant Governor in 2010. His grandparents are farm workers and he fights for farm worker’s rights in the Senate. One main priority of Florez’s is speaking out against using the Central Valley as a big dump for waste. Other accomplishments include sponsoring SB 700 which made farmers follow the Clean Air Act and supporting bills to make farm worker vans safer.  Possible candidates for replacement include Danny Gilmore (R) of the 30th Assembly district and Juan Arambula (I) of the 31st Assembly district which covers Hispanic areas in the southern Central Valley. Gilmore won against Fran Florez (D), the mother of Dean Florez in 2008. Gilmore was a former marine. He may run because he has a shaky hold on the 30th district. I expect due to the district’s large Hispanic population, a Hispanic Democrat will win in 2010. Even though it should be a Republican year, Gilmore was the Joseph Cao of California. He was Cao because he won an upset in a heavily Democratic district that will go back to normal by 2010. Arambula used to be a Democrat but switched parties in June 2009. Seeing an open seat, he may leap for the seat and because he is Hispanic, I see him winning. Obama won 59% of the vote here. Demographics are 63% Hispanic, 7% Black, and 6% Asian. Status is Likely Democrat.

State Senate District 18 Roy Ashburn (R)

Republicans may be dwindling in California. They still have this area as a stronghold. The 18th district contains Republican parts of Kern, Tulare, Inyo and San Bernardino counties. This totals up to a McCain win with 61% of the vote. Even though Ashburn represents the most Conservative district in California, he is fairly moderate. During the budget crisis, he voted with the Democrats to increase taxes to help the economy. His constituents were furious so his political career should be finished. Voters will not have a chance to prove it because Ashburn is term limited. A possible candidate to replace him is Republican Jean Fuller. She represents the 32nd State Assembly District which is centered in Bakersfield. She was the former Superintendent of Bakersfield schools until she became a state legislator in 2006. Like Ashburn, she is not a Tom McClintock Conservative. She supports allocating more money for education. Besides Fuller, Republican Bill Maze will seek the seat and so will Democrat Carter Pope. Maze formerly represented California’s 34th State Assembly District which covers Tulare County and some rural areas in Inyo County. In the Assembly, he was on numerous committees such as the Select Committee for Foster Care. Maze appears more Conservative than Fuller and he represented the 34th district for six years. The race should be a duel between Kern County and Tulare County.  Maze has a better chance to win because he is more Conservative and he is more entrenched. I expect the race will split about 53%-47% or even closer. Democrat Carter Pope appears to have no legislative experience or political experience so he is should lose. The demographics for this district are 27% Hispanic. Status is Safe Republican.

State Senate District 20 Alex Padilla (D)

Like San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom, Padilla is a young rising star. Apparently, Newsom agrees with me because he appointed Padilla to chair his gubernatorial campaign calling Padilla, “One of the brightest and most accomplished rising stars in the country.” Even if Newsom’s poll numbers depict his as a falling star, Padilla is not falling. The Hispanic Business magazine named him one of America’s most influential Hispanics. He spearheaded a tobacco tax bill last August and is trying now to get a fire protection bill passed. The San Gabriel Mountains near his district are on fire, why am I not surprised?  Other projects include starting the Children’s Museum of Los Angeles. Since he was elected in 2006, he sponsored 29 bills.  Would he be LA Mayor Villaraigosa’s replacement when Villaraigosa retires? Anyway, he should not worry about reelection. Obama won 72% of the vote here and the demographics are 61% Hispanic, 9% Asian and 23% White. Status is Safe Democrat.  

I’m quite prepared to delete this if I’m breaking site policy but the topic seems relavant to me.

I’ve been fighting something of a lonely battle at Daily Kos arguing with people over the health care debate and real possibility of the Obama administration dropping the so called ‘public option’ in order to bring conservative Democrats in congress onboard in order to pass a bill.

Most have drawn their proverbial line in the sand and are committed to opposing any bill that does not include a robust public option. I have no doubt that many posters here at SSP also hold this position. I respect it but cannot agree.

This mcjoan diary from earlier today seemed to be totally off base and I said so.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

They are fixated on the polls that show support for the public option in theory but refuse to even acknowledge the existence of the polling that indicates the electorate has turned against the plans that are actually under discussion. As we all know perception is reality in politics.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/…

The reason I believe we can and should discuss this here is because of the real paradox that this has created. On the one hand Democrats in conservative districts won by John McCain or narrowly won by the president last year are clearly concerned about supporting a bill that is unpopular among their constituents. Their rationale is to remove the public option. But of course this is a sticking point for progressives particularly in the House.

I think this impass is a recipe for disaster. Though I don’t think the health care failure in 1994 was the only factor in the Republican Revolution it was clearly the coup de grace after all the scandals and the contentious votes taken that cycle particularly on the budget and on the assault weapons ban. There is clear evidence that Dems in conservative districts that year who voted for those bills were likely to go down to defeat while those who voted no all survived.

Though the author is a bit of a winger and RCP in general leans conservative this article is quite persuasive.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c…

I know Dave Wasserman at The Cook Political Report has come to the same conclusion and Nate Silver posted a link to the article yesterday and made many of the same points.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…

It is clear to me the pragmatic solution would be to find a compromise that can find the necessary votes in both chambers. Kossacks seem determined though to stand their ground even if it means no bill at all. What do y’all think?

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

This redistricting map has really been a long time coming, but trying to match up the 36,000 census blocks of NYC and the 20,000 blocks of Nassau County (among many, many others) with a precinct and creating a consolidated population-political data file tends to take a while. But unquestionably, I also think this is my best map yet. I used 2008 population estimates by city/town, projected forward to 2010. I also worked painstakingly hard for population equality, which I think is evident in that the total deviation for all 28 districts is 86, or 0.012% of a single district.

At a whopping 26-3, our NY delegation is already pretty maxed out. With the loss of a district in 2010, there’s a good opportunity to consolidate and create what could possibly be a 27-1 delegation. I chose to do this by eliminating John McHugh’s district and then employing some old-fashioned cracking of Nassau County to defeat Peter King. Side goals included strengthening Massa, Arcuri, Murphy, Hall, and McMahon, while preserving VRA districts for Meeks, Towns, Clarke, Velazquez, Rangel, and Serrano.

My district maps later. First, some eye candy:

I’m sure there’s enough in these maps to make for its own diary, but that’s for another time….

(Sidenote: Yes, I am sending my dataset to Dave and David, so hopefully this can be incorporated into DRA. I do have a ‘tutorial’ on how I do my redistricting where I used Wisconsin as an example that I will hopefully post shortly.)

Now, here’s my map:

Starting upstate:

As is the case with a lot of my districts, I took some inspiration from the districts of yesteryear (or… 1993-2003). This would still be Louise Slaughter’s district, recentered around Monroe County (with an arm to grab Geneseo out of Livingston County). The percentage drop seems daunting at first (down from 68.47%), and there’s not a good reason for Buffalo and Rochester to be packed into the same district. Anyways, Slaughter is familiar with the area and would be solid for any Rochester Democrat should Slaughter choose to retire.

I think a lot of times, we overestimate the Democratic strength of Brian Higgins’ district – he was only elected in 2004, and Obama only scored 54.19% here. I’ll admit, I shuffled around this district quite a bit, with it going from Buffalo north instead of south. We add all of Niagara and Orleans Counties, with a sliver of Monroe for population balancing, but we do retain all of Buffalo’s South District, which Higgins represented in the Buffalo Common Council before getting elected to Congress. From this we get slightly more than a 3% boost to 57.52%; this should be safe for a long time to come.

Granted, I shifted around Massa’s district quite a bit too, with it now going to Buffalo instead of Rochester. I did this in the interest of centering the 28th in Monroe County and leaving room for the sprawling 23rd. However, I think it retains its Southern Tier character (roughly 40%). The nastier bits of Steuben and Allegany counties are carved out. The Democratic boost from the remaining parts of Buffalo doesn’t hurt either, leaving this district 5 points better at 53.52%.

This district doesn’t substantially differ from Maffei’s current version, though I do take out a chunk of southern Onondaga county to make room for the 24th to pass through. Since we’re dismantling the current 23rd, the section of Oswego County begins to pick up some of the pieces. Still centered on Syracuse and DeWitt, this district has a marginal improvement of 0.2%, leaving it still a touch short of 56% Obama.

Tompkins County saved Arcuri from defeat in 2008, and this district helps on that front. It now incorporates all of Tompkins. Arcuri’s base in Utica remains as well, though the rest of Oneida County is surprisingly hostile to Democrats. Eastern Oswego and western Jefferson Counties are added, again to compensate for the elimination of the current 23rd. Overall, this district improves modestly to 52.08% from 50.33%. Obama only narrowly lost the district outside of Tompkins, but Ithaca is really what anchors the district.

I’ll be the first to say it, this district is pretty disgustingly drawn. Communities of interest went flying out the window – the only thing the parts of this district have in common are their Republican political dispositions. We go from the Buffalo suburbs (Clarence, Lancaster), across Western New York and the Southern Tier to near Binghamton, through to the Capital District (Schenectady, Saratoga) and also north to the Adirondacks and even parts of Rome. The 24th and its misshapen bird form was bad, but I really challenge you to tell me what the 23rd looks like.

With Ithaca out of the picture shoring up the 24th, and with the 23rd cutting off any access route, I had to scrounge for Democratic votes to keep Hinchey at a comparable level. We get a vaguely frog-like district (facing east), in my opinion. One leg is for Binghamton, another for the less-Republican areas not in the 23rd and for population balance. Retained is Hinchey’s base in Ulster and Sullivan counties, with arms for Newburgh and Middletown in Orange County. Also of note is the string along the Hudson in Dutchess County, from Red Hook through Poughkeepsie down to Beacon. The lack of Ithaca still shows, but with some effort, there’s only a 0.7% drop.

With problematic Schoharie County out of the way, Tonko’s 21st can look to some greener (bluer?) pastures. Mostly, this is just some housekeeping down in Otsego, Delaware, and Greene counties. Tonko’s residence in Amsterdam stays in, as well as the entirety of Albany County, and Rensselaer and Troy. The net is a very marginal (less than 0.1%) improvement.

You look at this district and you ask, can this really be called Scott Murphy’s and not Dede Scozzafava’s district? I say yes for two reasons. First, Murphy lives in the northern part of the current 20th, which is also included here. Second, slightly more than half the population is from the current 20th, including Saratoga Springs. Tedisco did quite well in Saratoga, but the more Republican parts are stripped out for the 23rd. For our efforts, we’re rewarded with a 2.5% boost to 53.2% from 50.7%.

We’re getting into Westchester now, so I’m guessing you’ll want a more detailed map:

John Hall’s district also gets quite the makeover. However, it retains Hall’s residence in Dover Plains and most of Dutchess County, as well as the Democratic-leaning parts of Putnam and Cortlandt/Peekskill in Westchester. There’s also an arm into Rockland, nabbing the heavily Democratic parts of Ramapo town. Notable removals include the heavily Republican towns of Monroe in Orange County (including Kiryas Joel village) and Carmel in Putnam County. In order to accomodate the 22nd, the 19th doesn’t get as much of a boost, only to 52.3%, up 1.6%.

To help Hall, Nita Lowey’s district picks up the eastern half of Putnam County. With Hall’s district shifted northward, most of Westchester gets put here, all the way from Somers to White Plains to New Rochelle and the Bronx line, with a nice arm into Yonkers to hold the Democratic percentage up. There’s still a 2.5% drop though, thanks to Carmel. Not that Lowey has to worry.

Finally, we’ve broken the city barrier. But first, the district takes in a lot of Rockland and Orange counties that didn’t get lumped into the 19th. There are some pretty Republican (or at least anti-Obama) pockets in the towns of Monroe and Ramapo – most likely owing to the Orthodox Jewish communities in Kiryas Joel, Monsey, and Viola. I do think there’s a good chance they’d vote for Engel, though. In Westchester, I kept the riverside villages of Hastings-on-Hudson, Dobbs Ferry, and Irvington whole (though the district still jumps the Tappan Zee). Yonkers and Mount Vernon are still here, as well as Wakefield and Woodlawn in the Bronx. Engel still lives here, though the district is less Bronx-centric (and yes, 10% less Democratic at 62.0%) than before.

Now that we’re in the city, here’s a map of the city districts.

She’s still Jenny from the Block, and this is pretty much the old 16th district centered on SoBro the South Bronx. More than 95% of the new and old 16ths overlap, and the result shows at 95% Obama. From Mott Haven through to Fordham, this district remains heavily Hispanic at 63.04%.

I’m not sure when the tradition of putting Rikers into the 15th was started, but it’s been that way since at least 1993, and I’ve kept it that way. Again, the vast majority of the district is the same, from Inwood to Washington Heights to Harlem, Spanish Harlem, and Morningside Heights. I tried for clean lines in the city: the border with the 14th remains straight on 96th street. The west side is a bit harder for population balancing. Still ridonkulously Democratic, giving the 16th a run for its money. (Note how Obama got 97.26% in the 70th Assembly District. That’s… almost Detroit-level.) Still plurality-Hispanic.

Again, not much different here either. Maloney keeps all of Central Park and the East Side of Manhattan through to Houston Street. Again, I tried for clean lines, with Central Park West/8th Ave., then 7th Ave. (with a bump-out in Midtown to balance population). On the Queens side, still essentially the same areas of Astoria and Ravenswood, though Long Island City/Hunters Point is shifted to the 12th. Again no news here, just a slight bump up from 78.2%.

McMahon keeps his Staten Island-centric district. I tried to make the Brooklyn parts as Democratic as possible, losing Dyker Heights, Bensonhurst, and Gravesend in favor of Democratic Coney Island. A 2.4% boost to 51.2% results, though I don’t think McMahon was really in any danger.

Really, nothing new here either, except we’ve shifted it from plurality to majority Hispanic. Same neighborhoods, from Sunset Park to Red Hook, Loisaida, Greenpoint, and Bushwick. A notable shift is that Chinatown is removed and Williamsburg is added, dropping Obama’s performance by 1% (to a still-astronomical 85%).

Not much new here either, still a central-Brooklyn based district for Yvette Clarke centered in Flatbush, Prospect Park, Park Slope, and Crown Heights. The district does move farther south into Ocean Parkway though, mostly to relieve stress on the 9th. Still majority-Black, though the southward shift lowers the Democratic percentage by 2 points.

Same story for Ed Towns, with an arcing district from Brooklyn Heights to Bed-Stuy, East New York, and south to Canarsie. Again a slight southward expansion to boost the 9th. Still majority Black, a slight drop to 88% Obama (oh the humanity).

Weiner was never in any danger, really, but it was just odd to have an only 55% Obama district in the city. (IMO, Staten Island doesn’t count.) The district becomes more Queens-centric, while retaining Weiner’s home in Forest Hills, as well as taking in Middle Village, Maspeth, Kew Gardens, parts of Ridgewood, and Ozone Park. Same deal in Brooklyn, keeping Gerritsen, Sheepshead Bay, and Brighton Beach. It does lose parts of Ocean Parkway and Borough Park, picking up slightly-less Republican Gravesend. The boost helps, bringing this to 59% Obama, up roughly 5%.

Nadler’s district, again, is mostly unchanged. Upper West Side, Chelsea, Greenwich Village, TriBeCa, SoHo, the FiDi, etc stay in the Manhattan parts. In Brooklyn, there’s Borough Park and Dyker Heights. Obama only scored 38% in the Brooklyn section. This is countered by the 84.8% Manhattan section, averaging out to 73.9% Obama (+0.2%).

Most of the creative districting in the city came in Queens, I think, and the 7th is a good example. The Bronx portion doesn’t change too much, except it stretches to the Hudson now that the 17th is more suburban. Otherwise, Co-op City, Pelham Bay, Soundview, and Parkchester stay in, jumping Long Island Sound at Throgs Neck. It takes in more suburban areas of Queens than before, including Whitestone and Beechhurst. Crowley does live in Woodside, but there’s an arm for that.

Gregory Meeks’ district gets quite the change as well, and becomes the first of three Nassau-Queens hybrid districts. The district remains centered on East Queens, though, from Jamaica and Ozone Park east to the Nassau line. In Nassau, we try to grab the most Republican parts in southwestern Hempstead, including Woodmere and Lawrence. Also of note is the shift of the entire Rockaway Peninsula (the western part of which is quite Republican) to the district. Broad Channel is also no longer split in two. Amazingly, the district is still majority-Black (just barely at 50.16% non-Hispanic-or-Latino Black). The Nassau parts do bring down the Democratic percentage 9.5% to 79.5%.

This district is pretty hideous, too. With a lot of suburban Queens in the 7th, the 5th can pick up more of the more-Democratic inner neighborhoods of Queens. So, we get a district that stretches from Elmhurst and Jackson Heights to Huntington. Again, harking back to the olden days, the district grabs out some choice precincts in Suffolk County, relieving pressure on the 1st and 2nd. In Nassau, it keeps Great Neck and Port Washington, but also adds Old Westbury, Syosset, and Glen Cove. In Suffolk, we avoid Huntington (the hamlet), since Steve Israel lives there, but we do get Cold Spring Harbor and Fort Salonga, all the way to the Huntingtown-Smithtown line. All this results in a 2% drop to 61.2% Obama, buoyed by the 74% Democratic section of Queens. Regardless, Ackerman will be fine.

Here’s the third of the Queens-Nassau districts. The current 4th gets its Democratic strength from Uniondale and Hempstead, but those would fit well in a newly Democratic 3rd district. Thus, two prongs into Queens, one into Briarwood and one into Flushing, which meet in Briarwood. In Nassau, this district includes closer-in Democratic areas like Elmont and Valley Stream balanced by swing areas like Mineola and extremely Republican Garden City. In total, the Queens section again anchors the district, leaving it at 58.2% Democratic, up 0.2%.

My favorite district, really. You might look at the map and say… is that really an improvement? Yes, Massapequa, Bethpage, and Levittown are still here, as Amityville, Copaigue, and West Islip. However, in picking up Uniondale, Hempstead, and Freeport in the Town of Hempstead, and parts of Syosset, Jericho, and Plainview, the Democratic performance improves quite a bit. It would have been higher had I not included the South Shore in Suffolk County and instead grabbed Plainview, but I wanted to hold the 2nd constant. All in all, up 6.6% to 54.0% Democratic. Perfect for someone like Dave Mejias who can keep the margins in Massapequa down.

Steve Israel’s district is mostly unchanged, still centered on the towns of Huntington, Islip, and Babylon, including Melville, Dix Hills, and Ronkonkoma. It also takes in a small section of Nassau (parts of Woodbury, Plainview, and Old Bethpage), keeping the Democratic performance up. Instead of Republican Smithtown, the district takes out Patchogue, Holtsville, and Farmingville from the town of Crookhaven. Democratic performance is essentially unchanged from 56.13%.

Lastly, we arrive at the 1st district, again, mostly unchanged. It contains the Hamptons, Southold, Riverhead, all of Smithtown, and most of Brookhaven. Obama’s performance is up just a tad to 51.52%.

And there we have it, my 27-1 plan for New York. Comments and questions (and witty remarks!) welcome, as always. (That tutorial is coming up, I promise!)

On the heels of my last Michigan related diary, which received some pretty suprising attention from the DLCC, I’ve decided to overview the potentially competitive State House Races going forward into 2010.  By my count, about a third (34 out of 110) of the State House seats will be open in 2010, a far smaller percentage than in the State Senate, where at least 30 of 38 seats will be open.  Although Democrats stand to gain several seats in the Senate, the House is not such a rosy picture.  The competitive nature of the open seats means that there will be a lot of turnovers in the next election, but Democrats will at best only achieve a net gain of 1-2 seats, While the most likely scenario is a no net change to Republicans gaining 1-2.  In a bad year Democrats could lose 5-6 seats, but I don’t envision the Republicans gaining the 13 seats needed to take back control of the body.  Democrats control the House by a 67-43 margin, after two successive cycles of huge gains (+6 in 2006 and +9 in 2008).  You can view my Senate overview here http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Because most of the districts will be uncompetitive, I’m only listing ones that I consider to be “Lean” or “Tossup” districts.  I will include, as in my Senate Diary, a list of announced and potential candidates and 2008 Presidential results.

District 30– Tory Rocca (R) OPEN Northern Sterling Heights (Macomb County)

This district has been represented by the Rocca family consistently for the past 26 years.  First the Father, Sal, from 1983 to 1994.  Then the mother, Sue, from 1994 to 2000, then Sal again from 2000 to 2004, and finally, the son, Tory from 2004 to present.  This district has trended democratic since the beginning of the Rocca reign, and Tory is term limited.  According to Sal’s biography, he has another son, Michael, but it is unclear whether he lives in the 30th District or not.  The Democratic bench in this district is strong.  Macomb County Commissioner Ken Lampar (D), who was elected in 2008, has already announced his candidacy and is considered a strong contender.  23 year old Commissioner Dave Flynn (D) is also a potential candidate.  The only Republican commissioner who represents a portion of this district is Matriarch Sue Rocca, who is barred by term limits of running for her old seat.  Unless a Rocca steps up, I like Democrats chances here.  Still this is a historically Republican district.

Presidential Results- 50.9 – 46.4 Obama

Announced Candidates- Ken Lampar (D) Current Macomb County Commissioner

Potential Candidates- Dave Flynn (D) Current Macomb County Commissioner

Rating- Tossup

District 57– Dudley Spade (D) OPEN Most of Lenawee County

Rep. Dudley Spade is term limited in 2010, and his district will be home to one of the biggest and most heavily contested races in the state.  The county is competitive but normally leans slightly Republican nationally, while Democrats usually do well here locally.  Prior to Dudley Spade, this seat was represented by his brother, Doug Spade from 1998-2004.  If another Spade steps up, our chances for holding this seat improve. (Maybe actor David Spade should move here.)  Both sides have deep benches here, but only Harvey Schmidt has announced his candidacy yet.  Schmidt, a Democrat, is the mayor of Tecumseh, the 2nd largest city in the district.  Former State Senator and brief 2008 candidate for Congress Jim Berryman (D) is considered a possible candidate, and has the name recognition to win.  There is a long list of Republican County and City Commissioners who could make this district competitives, as well.

Presidential Results- 51.4 – 46.4 Obama

Announced Candidates- Wayne Schmidt (D) Mayor of Tecumseh

Potential Candidates- Larry Richardson (D) Madison Township Supervisor

Karol Bolton (D) Lenawee County Commissioner

Michael Osborne (D) Adrian City Commissioner

Jim Berryman (D) Former State Senator

James Van Doren (R) Lenawee County Commissioner; Chairman

John Tuckerman (R) Lenawee County Commissioner

David Simpson (R) Lenawee County Commissioner

Rob Hall (R) Lenawee County Commissioner

Rating- Tossup

District 70– Mike Huckleberry (D) Montcalm County, Part of Ionia County

The 70th District was one of the closest districts between Obama and McCain, with Pres. Obama only narrowly prevailing by 313 votes.  Yet the same year, Democrat Mike Huckleberry, an entrepreneur and former Congressional candidate, Upset the favorite, Republican Judge Tom Ginster, by a wide 54-46 margin.  Republicans will contend that Huckleberry’s election was a fluke in such a Republican district, and will surely run a strong candidate against him.  Still, Incumbents almost never lose in the Michigan legislature.  In fact, of the Democrats 15 pickups in the last 2 cylces, only one was due to the loss of an incumbent.  This is not because Michigan has any particularly strong affinity for its incumbents, it’s just that with so many open seats, the state parties rarely spend money against incumbents.  Only businessman Ed Sternisha has yet announced his candidacy, and Republicans will likely need someone stronger than him to defeat Huckleberry.

Presidential Results- 49.5 – 49.4 Obama

Announced Candidates- Ed Sternisha (R)

Potential Candidates- Ron Retzloff (R) Montcalm County Commissioner

Pat Carr (R) Montcalm County Commissioner

Amanda Powell (R) Ionia County Commissioner

Rating- Leans Democrat

District 71– Rick Jones (R) OPEN Most of Eaton County

Between 2004 and 2008, Eaton County went from being a slightly Republican leaning swing county, to a slightly Democrat leaning swing county.  Eaton voted for Obama, and Mark Schauer, and at the same time gave Democrats control of its County Commission.  Democrats control 9 commission seats and Republicans control 6.  Almost any of these commissioners would make solid candidates for State House.  Republicans Deb Shaughnessy, the mayor of Charlotte, and Cheryl Krapf-Haddock, Executive Director of the Child Abuse Prevention Council have both announced their candidacies, with more Republicans likely to enter.  Democrat Robert Robinson has announced his candidacy as well.  It looks like both sides will have competitive primaries.  At this point, I can’t pick a favorite, and it could stay that way until election day.

Presidential Results- 53.5 – 44.8 Obama

Announced Candidates- Deb Shaughnessy (R) Charlotte Mayor

Cheryl Krapf-Haddock (R)

Robert Robinson (D)

Potential Candidates- Joe Brehler (D) Eaton County Commissioner

Glenn Freeman (D) Eaton County Commissioner

Art Luna (D) Eaton County Commissioner

Leo Farhat (R) Eaton County Commissioner

John Forell (R) Eaton County Commissioner

Rating- Tossup

District 79– John Proos (R) OPEN Northern half of Berrien County

Like much of South-Western Michigan, Berrien County swung strongly Democratic in 2008.  In fact, Barack Obama was the first Democrat to win the County since 1964! Much of this is attributed to high African-American turnout in Benton Harbor, but it was perhaps equally because of moderate Republicans abandoning the Republican Party.  The question in 2010 is whether those moderates will return to the GOP fold or not.  If they do, Republicans will keep this seat in a walk, but if the moderates are still dissatisfied, this seat could be competitive.  Lower Black turnout makes this one tougher, but not impossible, for Democrats.  No candidates have announced yet, and Republicans have a deeper bench here than Democrats, so I’m going to call them the favorites.

Presidential Results- 53.0 – 45.8 Obama

Announced Candidates-

Potential Candidates- Jim Hahn (D) Chairman of Berrien County Democrats

John Hinkleman (R) Berrien County Commissioner

Al Pscholka (R) Aide to Congressman Fred Upton

Rating: Leans Republican

District 83– John Espinosa (D) OPEN Sanilac County, Port Huron (St. Clair County)

Democrat John Espinosa is vacating his seat to run for State Senate (He’s term limited anyway).  Republicans drew this seat in their favor, but Moderate Dem Espinosa has been able to consistently win re-election here easily.  Now that he’s vacating it, it becomes a good opportunity for Republicans.  Democrat Port Huron City Councilman Alan Lewandowski is apparently interested, but I think Democrats would have more luck with a candidate from Sanilac County, where Espinosa is from.  Unfortunately, Republicans control every single seat on the Sanilac County Commission.  An city or township official from Sanilac County or an official from Port Huron could make this seat competitive, but right now I feel like this is the Republicans’ most likely pickup next year.

Presidential Results- 51.8 – 46.1 Obama

Announced Candidates-

Potential Candidates- Alan Lewandowski (D) Port Huron City Councilman

Jamie Daws (R) Sanilac County Commissioner

Gary Russell (R) Sanilac County Commissioner

Rating- Leans Republican

District 85– Richard Ball (R) OPEN Shiawassee County, Part of Clinton County

This is another district that Republicans gerrymandered for themselves by pairing swingish Shiawassee County with portions of the normally Republican Clinton County.  Yet this area, just north of Lansing, experienced one of the biggest swings in the 2008 elections.  Barack Obama not only won the district, but suprisingly won Clinton County as a whole. Both sides have relatively good benches here, but the Democratic nominee with have to get past the historically Republican nature of Clinton County to win here.  Three Republicans have announced so far, but only Owosso Mayor Pro-Tem Jim Stechschulte seems like a viable candidate.  Republican Owosso Mayor Mike Bruff would be an even better candidate.  No Democrat has yet announced but there are several Shiawassee County Commissioners who could win this district.

Presidential Results- 53.9 – 44.2 Obama

Announced Candidates- Jim Stechschulte (R) Owosso Mayor Pro-Tem

David Lazar (R)

Harold Kuisel (R)

Potential Candidates- Judy Ford (D) 2008 Candidate

Dan Stewart (D) Shiawassee County Commissioner

Jaime Pavlica (D) Shiawassee County Commissioner

Mike Bruff (R) Owosso Mayor

Rating- Tossup

District 91– Mary Valentine (D) OPEN Suburban Muskegon County, Part of Ottawa County

Although she is not term-limited, talented Democrat Mary Valentine is vacating her house seat to run for the State Senate.  This seat was held for years by Republicans until Valentine came along in 2006 and pummeled incumbent Republican David Farhat 54-46.  She was easily re-elected in 2008 over highly touted Republican recruit Holly Hughes, while Barack Obama won the district very comfortably.  Democrats hold most of the County Commissioners seats in this district, and State Treasurer Tony Moulatsiotis lives in Norton Shores and would make a strong candidate.  Still, few Democrats can match Valentine’s charisma and skillful campaigning.  Republican Ken Punter is running.  Juggernaut fundraiser and 2006 candidate may also run.  

Presidential Results- 56.2 – 42.6 Obama

Announced Candidates- Ken Punter (R)

Potential Candidates- Tony Moulatsiotis (D) Muskegon County Treasurer

Kenneth Mahoney (D) Muskegon County Commissioner; Chairman

James Derezinski (D) Muskegon County Commissioner

Holly Hughes (R) 2008 Candidate

Rating- Tossup

97th District– Tim Moore (R) OPEN Clare, Gladwin, Arenac, northern Bay Counties

In 2004, Republican Tim Moore defeated one-term Democratic State Rep. Jennifer Elkins by a narrow margin.  Since then he’s faced only token opposition, despite the swingishness of his district and its historic Democratic nature (it’s also the birth place of Sen. Debbie Stabenow).  President Obama won every County in this district, and the Republican bench here isn’t great.  For the Democrats, Fmr. Rep. Elkins want to try to regain her seat.  Freeman Township supervisor Mark Lightfoot (D) has already announced his candidacy, but several other local officeholders may join him.  Two Republicans have announced their candidacy, Kim Emmons and Joel Johnson.  Neither has held political office or seems viable against a strong Dem nominee.  radio personality Bobby Randall has been talked about for the Republican primary.

Presidential Results- 51.4 – 46.5 Obama

Announced Candidates- Mark Lightfoot (D) Freeman Township supervisor

Kim Emmons (R) Activist

Joel Johnson (R)

Potential Candidates- Jennifer Elkins (D) Former State Representative

Mike Shea (D) Gladwin County Sherrif

Josh Reid (D) Gladwin County Commissioner

Bobby Randall (R) Radio Personality

Rating- Tossup

District 99– Bill Caul (R) OPEN Isabella County, part of Midland County

The 99th is another district customized by Republicans.  And once again, the district has moved significantly to the left.  The main anchor of the district is Isabella County, a former swing district that gave president Obama huge margin in 2008.  The rest of the district is rural Republican townships in Midland County.  High Native American populations and the fact that Mount Pleasant is home to Central Michigan University makes this district one of the best pickup opportunities for Democrats.  Democrats also recruited the woman who is probably their strongest candidate, well known attorney and Chair of the Isabella County Democrats Toni Sessoms.  Sessoms is also independently wealthy and if elected she would become the first openly lesbian State Representative.  Former Republican County Commissioner and unsuccessful 2008 candidate for an at-large commissioner seat Christine Alwood is running.  Alwood is not nearly as strong as Republican Mount Pleasant mayor Jim Holton, but Holton hasn’t shown any inclination towards running yet.  I like Sessoms chances against Alwood, but Holton would be more of an uphill climb.

Presidential Results- 54.1 – 43.9 Obama

Announced Candidates- Toni Sessoms (D) Isabella County Dems Chair

Christine Alwood (R) Former Isabella County Commissioner

Potential Candidates- Jim Holton (R) Mount Pleasant Mayor

Rating- Tossup

District 103– Joel Sheltrown (D) OPEN Iosco, Ogemaw, Roscommon, and Missaukee Counties

Another district that’s all in the family.  Before Joel Sheltrown, this district was represented by his brother, Dale.  And who’s the most likely Democratic candidate in 2010? Van Sheltrown, the third brother and current Ogemaw County Road Commissioner.  The Sheltrown name is popular here, but there’s no guarantee that Van will have the primary to himself.  And this district is Republican in nature (McCain won it).  Republicans have a somewhat deep bench here, but so far only Phil Bendily has announced his candidacy.  Against Bendily, the Democrat should be favored, but against a stronger candidate like Missaukee County Sheriff Jim Bosscher, the result is less certain.

Presidential Results- 49.3 – 48.8 McCain

Announced Candidates- Phil Bendily (R)

Potential Candidates- Van Sheltrown (D) Ogemaw County Road Commission

Howie Hanft (D) Ogemaw County Sheriff

Marc Milburn (R) Roscommon County Commissioner

Jim Bosscher (R) Missauke County Sheriff

Rating- Tossup

District 105– Kevin Elsenheimer (R) OPEN Charlevoix, Otsego, and part of Cheboygan Counties

Kevin Elsenheimer, who retired in 2008 and then un-retired, is now term limited for real.  If the short lived primary from last year is any indication, the Republican primary will be crowded and may include, as it did last year and in 2004, John Ramsey, yes the John Ramsey.  Last year Cheboygan County Commissioner Connie Saltonstall ran a tough campaign against Elsenheimer, and she may run again.  If the crowded Republican primary yields a damaged or unelectable candidate like Ramsey, Saltonstall has a good shot.  But if not, this district will probably go with the Republican.  MSU student and Controversial figure Dennis Lennox, who’s currently being sued for Defamation by Ingham County Commissioner Mark Grebner.  He currently serves as Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner, even though he thinks his job should be eliminated to save money.  A Saltonstall-Lennox race would be competitive, as well, in my opinion.

Presidential Results- 52.1 – 46.1 McCain

Announced Candidates- Dennis Lennox (R) Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner

Ken Glasser (R) Otsego County Commissioner

Potential Candidates- Connie Saltonstall (D) former Cheboygan county Commissioner

Tim Boyko (R) Former County Commissioner (R)

Greg MacMaster (R)

John Ramsey (R) 2008 Candidate (dropped out) and 2004 Candidate

Rating- Leans Republican

District 106– Andy Neumann (D) OPEN Alcona, Alpena, Presque Isle, Crawford, Montmorency, and Oscoda Counties

Andy Neumann, who was state Rep from 1998-2002 and who ran for his seat again last year, is term limited.  The district leans Republican nationally, but it’s anchored by Democratic bastion Alpena and leans Democrat statewide.  Neumann won comfortably in 2008 over Republican Pete Pettalia.  Democrats have several Alpena elected officials who could do well here, although Republicans control the Alpena County Commission.  No Democrats or Republicans have yet announced their candidacies yet, but both have good benches.  

Presidential Results- 49.8 – 48.1 McCain

Announced Candidates-

Potential Candidates- Mark Hall (D) Alpena County Commissioner

Casey Viegelahn (D) 2008 Primary Candidate

Peter Pettalia (R) 2008 Candidate

Mike Nunneley (R) Alpena City Councilman

Rating- Tossup

District 107– Gary McDowell (D) OPEN Chippewa, Mackinac, Emmet, and part of Cheboygan Counties

Former UPS delivery man and conservative Dem Gary McDowell is term limited.  The two westernmost Counties in the Upper Peninsula, Chippewa and Mackinac, are the only two that aren’t comfortably Democratic on the local and statewide level.  President Obama nearly won both, but downstate Emmet County is much more Republican.  The Republican bench is a bit stronger than the Democratic bench.  Former Chippewa County Prosecutor Patrick Shannon would probably be the strongest Democratic candidate.  St. Ignace Mayor Paul Grondin would make a strong Republican candidate as well.  Who’s favored here depends entirely on who each side nominates.  So far only Republican Frank Foster has filed to run here.

Presidential Results- 50.6 – 47.7 McCain

Announced Candidates- Frank Foster (R)

Potential Candidates- Patrick Shannon (D) former Chippewa County Prosecutor

Keith Massaway (D) Sault Indian Tribe leader

Paul Grondin (R) St. Ignace Mayor

Michael Patrick (R) Mackinac County Commissioner

Jim Moore (R) Chippewa County Commissioner

Rating- Tossup

Special thanks to Peter Bratt for compiling This spreadsheet compiling all announced candidates.  Also thanks to whomever created this website.

Yesterday I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.

37! more Districts now have Republican candidates and they are getting wingnuttier all the time.

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the shiny new 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

Also keep an eye out for the great series on Democratic House Candidates by Adam T

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

As we assumed for us so should we assume for them; so all 178 Republican held districts can be considered filled (although I think we may sneak a win in the NY-23rd Special).

122 Democratic held Districts have confirmed GOP candidates:

AL-02 (Bright) – R+16,

AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,

AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) – R+6,

AZ-05 (Mitchell) – R+5,

AZ-07 (Grijalva) – D+6,

AZ-08 (Giffords) – R+4,

AR-01 (Berry) – R+8,

AR-02 (Snyder) – R+5,

CA-01 (Thompson) – D+13,

CA-08 (Pelosi) – D+35,

CA-10 (VACANT) – D+11,

CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,

CA-20 (Costa) – D+5,

CA-30 (Waxman) – D+18,

CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,

CA-53 (Davis) – D+14,

CO-03 (Salazar) – R+5,

CO-04 (Markey) – R+6,

CO-07 (Perlmutter) – D+4,

CT-02 (Courtney) – D+6,

CT-03 (DeLauro) – D+9,

CT-04 (Himes) – D+5,

CT-05 (Murphy) – D+2,

FL-02 (Boyd) – R+6,

FL-03 (Brown) – D+18,

FL-08 (Grayson) – R+2,

FL-11 (Castor) – D+11,

FL-17 (Meek OPEN) – D+34,

FL-19 (Wexler) – D+15,

FL-20 (Wasserman Schulz) – D+13,

FL-22 (Klein) – D+1,

FL-23 (Hastings) – D+28,

FL-24 (Kosmas) – R+4,

GA-02 (Bishop) – D+1,

GA-12 (Barrow) – D+1,

GA-13 (Scott) – D+15,

HI-01 (Abercrombie OPEN) – D+11,

ID-01 (Minnick) – R+18,

IL-02 (Jackson Jr) – D+36,

IL-08 (Bean) – R+1,

IL-11 (Halvorson) – R+1,

IL-14 (Foster) – R+1,

IL-17 (Hare) – D+3,

IN-08 (Ellsworth) – R+8,

IN-09 (Hill) – R+6,

IA-02 (Loebsack) – D+1,

IA-03 (Boswell) – D+1,

KY-06 (Chandler) – R+9,

LA-03 (Melancon) – R+12,

ME-02 (Michaud) – D+3,

MD-01 (Kratovil) – R+13,

MD-03 (Sarbanes) – D+6,

MD-08 (Van Hollen Jr) – D+21,

MA-02 (Neal) – D+9,

MA-04 (Frank) – D+14,

MA-05 (Tsongas) – D+8,

MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7,

MI-07 (Schauer) – R+2,

MI-09 (Peters) – D+2,

MI-12 (Levin) – D+12,

MN-04 (McCollum) – D+13,

MS-01 (Childers) – R+14,

MS-04 (Taylor) – R+20,

MO-04 (Skelton) – R+14,

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

NH-01 (Shea Porter) – D+0,

NH-02 (Hodes OPEN) – D+3,

NJ-12 (Holt) – D+5,

NM-01 (Heinrich) – D+5,

NM-02 (Teague) – R+6,

NM-03 (Lujan) – D+7,

NY-01 (Bishop) – D+0,

NY-04 (McCarthy) – D+6,

NY-13 (McMahon) – R+4,

NY-19 (Hall) – R+3,

NY-22 (Hinchey) – D+6,

NY-25 (Maffei) – D+3,

NY-29 (Massa) – R+5,

NC-04 (Price) – D+8,

NC-07 (McIntyre) – R+5,

NC-08 (Kissell) – R+2,

NC-13 (Miller) – D+5,

OH-01 (Driehaus) – D+1,

OH-06 (Wilson) – R+2,

OH-15 (Kilroy) – D+1,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

OH-18 (Space) – R+7,

OK-02 (Boren) – R+14,

OR-01 (Wu) – D+8,

OR-04 (DeFazio) – D+2,

PA-03 (Dahlkemper) – R+3,

PA-07 (Sestak) – D+3,

PA-10 (Carney) – R+8,

PA-12 (Murtha) – R+1,

PA-13 (Schwartz) – D+7,

RI-01 (Kennedy) – D+13,

RI-02 (Langevin) – D+9,

SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin) – R+9,

TN-04 (Davis) – R+13,

TN-06 (Gordon) – R+13,

TN-08 (Tanner) – R+6,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

UT-02 (Matheson) – R+15,

VA-02 (Nye) – R+5,

VA-05 (Perriello) – R+5,

VA-09 (Boucher) – R+11,

VA-11 (Connolly) – D+2,

WA-03 (Baird) – D+0,

WA-06 (Dicks) – D+5,

WA-09 (Smith) – D+5,

WV-01 (Mollohan) – R+9,

WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6,

WI-02 (Baldwin) – D+15,

WI-03 (Kind) – D+4,

WI-04 (Moore) – D+22,

WI-07 (Obey) – D+3,

WI-08 (Kagen) – R+2,

12 Democratic held Districts have GOP candidates that are considering a run:

CA-33 (Watson) – D+35,

KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,

MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,

NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,

NY-14 (Maloney) – D+26,

NY-20 (Murphy) – R+2,

NY-24 (Arcuri) – R+2,

NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,

PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,

PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,

WA-07 (McDermott) – D+31,

4 Democratic held Districts have rumoured GOP Party candidates:

KS-03 (Moore) – R+3,

MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,

NJ-08 (Pascrell) – D+10,

PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,

118 Democratic held Districts don’t have any GOP candidates:

AL-07 (Davis OPEN) – D+18,

AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,

AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,

CA-05 (Matsui) – D+15,

CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,

CA-07 (Miller) – D+19,

CA-09 (Lee) – D+37,

CA-12 (Speier) – D+23,

CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,

CA-14 (Eshoo) – D+21,

CA-15 (Honda) – D+15,

CA-16 (Lofgren) – D+16,

CA-17 (Farr) – D+19,

CA-18 (Cardoza) – D+4,

CA-23 (Capps) – D+12,

CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,

CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,

CA-29 (Schiff) – D+14,

CA-31 (Becerra) – D+29,

CA-32 (Chu) – D+15,

CA-34 (Roybal-Allard) – D+22,

CA-35 (Waters) – D+31,

CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,

CA-37 (Richardson) – D+26,

CA-38 (Napolitano) – D+18,

CA-39 (Sanchez) – D+12,

CA-43 (Baca) – D+13,

CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,

CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,

CO-02 (Polis) – D+11,

CT-01 (Larson) – D+13,

GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,

GA-05 (Lewis) – D+26,

GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,

HI-02 (Hirono) – D+14,

IL-01 (Rush) – D+34,

IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,

IL-04 (Gutierrez) – D+32,

IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,

IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,

IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,

IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,

IN-01 (Visclosky) – D+8,

IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,

IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,

IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,

ME-01 (Pingree) – D+8,

MD-02 (Ruppersberger) – D+7,

MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,

MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,

MD-07 (Cummings) – D+25,

MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,

MA-03 (McGovern) – D+9,

MA-07 (Markey) – D+15,

MA-08 (Capuano) – D+32,

MA-09 (Lynch) – D+11,

MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,

MI-01 (Stupak) – R+3,

MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,

MI-13 (Kilpatrick) – D+31,

MI-14 (Conyers) – D+34,

MI-15 (Dingell) – D+13,

MN-05 (Ellison) – D+23,

MN-07 (Peterson) – R+5,

MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,

MS-02 (Thompson) – D+12,

MO-01 (Clay) – D+27,

MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,

NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,

NJ-01 (Andrews) – D+12,

NJ-06 (Pallone) – D+8,

NJ-09 (Rothman) – D+9,

NJ-10 (Payne) – D+33,

NJ-13 (Sires) – D+21,

NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,

NY-05 (Ackerman) – D+12,

NY-06 (Meeks) – D+36,

NY-07 (Crowley) – D+26,

NY-08 (Nadler) – D+22,

NY-09 (Weiner) – D+5,

NY-10 (Towns) – D+38,

NY-11 (Clarke) – D+38,

NY-12 (Velazquez) – D+33,

NY-15 (Rangel) – D+41,

NY-16 (Serrano) – D+41,

NY-17 (Engel) – D+18,

NY-18 (Lowey) – D+9,

NY-21 (Tonko) – D+6,

NY-27 (Higgins) – D+4,

NY-28 (Slaughter) – D+15,

NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,

NC-02 (Etheridge) – R+2,

NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,

ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,

OH-09 (Kaptor) – D+10,

OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,

OH-11 (Fudge) – D+32,

OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,

OH-17 (Ryan) – D+12,

OR-03 (Blumenauer) – D+19,

OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,

PA-01 (Brady) – D+35,

PA-02 (Fattah) – D+38,

PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,

PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,

SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,

SC-06 (Clyburn) – D+12,

TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,

TN-09 (Cohen) – D+23,

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

VT-AL (Welch) – D+13,

VA-03 (Scott) – D+20,

VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,

WA-01 (Inslee) – D+9,

WA-02 (Larsen) – D+3,

So the Republicans have confirmed candidates in 300 districts. Take a look at some of their challengers websites though and your eyeballs will bleed. They also have 12 districts with candidates that are considering a run and 4 districts with rumoured candidates.

Whilst they are still behind us numerically they have more in ours than we have in theirs, and the gap is ateadily narrowing.

They also have some huge gaps in California and New York.

They already have a full House slate in Alaska, Delaware, Florida, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Louisiana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming (we have 15 such states).

They also have but one slot to fill in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine,  Mississippi, North Dakota, and Vermont (we have 7 such states).

Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

More updates soon.