Tag: 2010

Since I live here in Minneapolis, MN and am addicted to Dave’s Redistricting App, I decided to try my hand at redistricting MN two different ways, first, assuming we lose a district and second, assuming we do not lose a district. The 7 district plan is below and should produce a 6-1 DFL map, or at worst a 5-2. The 8 District Map could be 7-1, but will be 6-2 once Peterson retires I think.

I’m very much a compactness kind of guy, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get a good Democratic Gerrymander with a compact map. The Maps and district descriptions are below the fold:

Here’s the seven district map:

District 1: Tim Walz (DFL) Blue

I originally forgot to include Mankato, Walz’s home, in this district and had to do some fancy work with MN-7 to make in in the district, but it worked. This district has three main bases Mankato, Rochester and then the motherload, Dakota County and the suburbs it contains. This should be a significantly more DFL friendly district than the 1st as it exists now.



District 2: John Kline (R) Green

Kline should be the lone GOP Representative in MN under this map; I seriously packed GOP votes in here, though I almost forgot to include his home in Lakeville. Carver, Scott and Wright Counties house the GOP leaning exurbs that are the backbone of this district. It encompasses about half of the old 2nd and half of the old 6th. I took a couple of the GOP leaning portions of the 7th as well. Obama definitely lost this district, probably by about 10 points.



District 3: OPEN (formerly Erik Paulson (R)) Purple

I took Paulson’s home in Eden Prairie out of this district and gave all the GOP parts of Hennepin over to the 2nd. This district is based in Anoka County and will be a fairly 50-50 district I think, but will lean DFL over the next few years if it does not already lean that way. I considered including Bloomington in it, but it just got too messy.

District 4: Betty McCollum (DFL) vs Michelle Bachmann (R) Red

Placing Bachmann’s residence here was accidental at first, but too amusing not to go ahead with. This will be a walk in the park for McCollum, and Bachmann may move to run in the 2nd, but she might be crazy enough to think she can beat McCollum. This is essentially the old 4th plus a chunk of Washington County

District 5: Keith Ellison (DFL) vs Erik Paulson (R) Yellow

Now, some of you may be scared that Ellison won’t win this district. That’s ridiculous. Ellison did better in the 5th in 2008 than did his predecessor Martin Sabo who help the district for decades. Paulson may move to run in the new 3rd rather than go up against Ellison, but The addition of Eden Prairie and Edina to the true blue 5th helps spread some of the DFL love around.

District 6: Jim Obrestar (DFL) Teal?

The old 8th becomes the 6th and essentially stays the same. I reddened it a litle to help the 7th blue up a bit, but it still leans DFL.



District 7: Collin Peterson (DFL) Grey

Peterson’s district added a LOT considering its low population growth. It expanded to include much of the old 1st district and I had the 6th take some of the more red parts of the old 7th. It essentially is a R+2-4 district I think, but competative for the right Democrat when Peterson retires. He’ll hold it until he leaves though.

Now for the 8 District Map

District 1: Tim Walz (DFL)

I didn’t strengthen it much, but some of the GOP leaning rural areas went to the 7th. Walz will be fine here and Obama won the district.

District 2: OPEN (formerly John Kline(R) )

Kline might move here, as this is the heavy GOP seat, but then again, Paulson and Bachman may move here too, since I drew all 3 GOP reps out of their districts. Whoever represents the 2nd could be the lone GOP Representative in MN under this map; I seriously packed GOP votes in here. Carver, Scott and Wright Counties house the GOP leaning exurbs that are the backbone of this district, as well as St. Cloud. It encompasses about half of the old 2nd and half of the old 6th. I took a couple of the GOP leaning portions of the 7th as well. Obama definitely lost this district, probably by about 10 points.



District 3: John Kline (R)

Kline lives in this new version of the 3rd which is based around Bloomington, MN and Dakota County. Obama won this district by a few points and its prolly around D+1. Kline may run here or he may move to the 2nd but this is a lean DFL district.

District 4: Betty McCollum (DFL) vs Michelle Bachmann (R)

This will be a walk in the park for McCollum, and Bachmann may move to run in the 2nd or the 6th, but she might be crazy enough to think she can beat McCollum. This is essentially the old 4th plus a chunk of Washington County

District 5: Keith Ellison (DFL) vs Erik Paulson (R)

Now, some of you may be scared that Ellison won’t win this district. That’s ridiculous. Ellison did better in the 5th in 2008 than did his predecessor Martin Sabo who help the district for decades. Paulson may move to run in the new 2nd rather than go up against Ellison, but The addition of Eden Prairie and Edina to the true blue 5th helps spread some of the DFL love around.

District 6: OPEN (formerly Michelle Bachmann (R) )

This is a new incarnation of the 6th, based in Anoka county, but much more suburban than the old 6th. This leans DFL and it would be an easy win for Tinklenberg or another Mainstream DFLer.

District 7: Collin Peterson (DFL)

Peterson’s district added a bit considering its low population growth. It expanded to include some of the old 1st district and I had the 2nd take some of the more red parts of the old 7th. It essentially is a R+4-6 district I think, but could competative for the right Democrat when Peterson retires. He’ll hold it until he leaves though.

District 8: Jim Obrestar (DFL) Purple

The 8th essentially stays the same. I reddened it a little to help the 7th blue up a bit, but it still leans DFL.

We all know how important it is that Democrats re-capture the Michigan State Senate next year.  If they take the Senate and hold the Governorship, they will have complete control over the redistricting process. Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, says “Democrats look poised to pick up at least 3 seats” next year.  To take control, we only need to win 4 Republican seats.  Democrats have not controlled the State Senate since 1982.  Below I have all 38 Senate seats listed, with the name of its Senator, the party, whether or not it will be OPEN next year, and a brief description of the district.  I also give a brief preliminary paragraph handicapping the race.  

Then I give the 2008 Presidential Result in that District. Remember that the 2008 resutl is sort of a “High Water Mark” here.  Note that I didn’t calculate the Presidential Vote for the 5 Detroit districts because this would require going precinct by precinct which would have taken days.  They are all at least 80% Obama, many are more than 90% Obama.

I then included all of the announced candidates for the races, with links to their websites or sources.  I then list potential candidates for each race, usually State Representatives or other local officeholders.  Finally, I offer a Charlie Cook style rating: Safe, Likely, Leans or Tossup.  The Senator’s name links to their website, where you can find a map of his or her district.

I realize that this is a lot of text, so for those who don’t want to read the entire thing, I added all my ratings seperately at the bottom of the diary.

Updated to include the announced Candidacies of Fmr. Rep. John Stewart (D) in the 7th (h/t Sean Fitzpatrick) and Rep. Mary Valentine (D) in the 34th.

District 1– Hansen Clarke (D) OPEN Easten Detroit; Downtown

Hansen Clarke (AKA “The man who kicked Ann Coulter’s Ass”) is term limited next year.  It’s a shame, because Clark has been one of my favorite Senators, and even one of my favorite politicians.  He recently donated his hair to a nine year old burn victim http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/dp… and is a tireless advocate for under-represented and underpriveledged Americans.  

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Coleman Young II (D), State Rep. (2006- ) 2009 Candidate for Detroit Mayor

Fred Durhal, Jr. (D)  State Rep. (2002-2003, 2008-  )

Betty Cook Scott (D) State Rep. (2004-   )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 2 Martha G. Scott (D) OPEN North Detroit, Hamtrack, Grosse Cities.  

Martha Scott, who was one of Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick’s 2008 primary challengers, is term limited.

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

LaMar Lemmons (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Bill McConico (D) State Rep. (2000-2006), 2006 Candidate

Virgil Smith (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Bert Johnson (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 3 Irma Clark-Coleman (D) OPEN Central Detroit, Dearborn

This district includes Dearborn, so there is the potential for this district to elect an Arab-American to the Senate.

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Morris Hood, Jr. State Rep. (2002-2008)

Keith Williams (D) Wayne County Commission (2003-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 4 Buzz Thomas (D) OPEN North and Central Detroit

Another very good legislator who is term limited this year, although I’m keeping my fingers crossed that John Conyers will retire so that Thomas can replace him in Congress.

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

George Cushingberry (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Virgil Smith (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Keith Williams (D) Wayne County Commission (2003-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 5 Tupac Hunter (D) West Detroit, Dearborn Heights, Inkster

Hunter will be fine in this majority black district, however term limited State Rep. Gabe Leland may challenge Hunter.  Leland’s father, Burt, represented this district prior to Hunter for decades.  

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 6 Glenn Anderson (D) Livonia, Westland, Redford, Garden City

Senator Anderson won this historically Republican suburban Wayne County district in 2006, defeating Republican Sen. Laura Toy.  He is favored to win re election, but former Rep. John Pastor (R) of Livonia could make it competitive.

Presidential Results: 57.8 – 40.4 Obama

Rating: Likely Democrat

District 7 Bruce Patterson (R) OPEN Canton, Northville, Plymouth, Trenton

Republican Pruce Patterson barely held on in 2006 against Democrat Mark Slavens in 2006 in this L-shaped suburban Wayne County district.  Democrats now hold every State House District that is wholly or partially in this district.  Mark Slaven’s wife Dian won the last remaining Republican held district last year, and Obama won this district comfortably.  This district will be one of the most competitive and expensive districts in the state.  If Democrats want to retake the Senate, this is a district that they almost have to win.  Former Republican-turned Democrat State Representative John Stewart, who served was an R while serving in the State House from 2000-2006 and who switched parties in 2007, is running.  The fact that he represented a 3rd of this district, and was a Republican, makes him a top tier candidate. h/t Sean Fitzpatrick

Presidential Results: 54.7 – 43.7 Obama

Announced Candidates:

John Stewart (D) Former Republican State Rep. (2000-2006) bin/cfr/com_det.cgi?com_id=514363

Potential Candidates:

Marc Corriveau (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Kathleen Law (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Mark Slavens (D) 2006 Candidate

Phillip LaJoy (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Tossup

District 8 Ray Basham (D) OPEN

Romulus, Taylor, Lincoln Park, Allen Park, Riverview, Wyandotte

The Democrat will be strongly favored in this suburban Wayne County district that is located south of Detroit.

Presidential Results: 64.6 – 33.4 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Hoon Yung-Hopgood (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Barbarah Farrah (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Ed Clemente (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Rating: Safe Dem

District 9 Dennis Olshove (D) OPEN  Warren, Eastpointe, Fraser, St. Clair Shores

This district is Democratic but mostly socially conservative one located in southern Macomb County.  It is, along with the 10th District, the home of the “Reagan Democrats,” who also voted strongly for Obama.  The Democrat is favored here.

Presidential Results: 58.3 – 39.6 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates: Lisa Wojno (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Frank Accavitti (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Jack Brandenburg (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Likely Dem

District 10 Mickey Switalksi (D) OPEN

Sterling Heights, Utica, Roseville, Clinton, Mount Clemens

Although slightly less Democratic than the 9th, this district still favors Democrats. And like the 9th, a conservative Democrat should have no problem winning this district.  Switalski announced earlier this year that he would challenge Rep. Sandy Levin in the 12th Congressional district.

Presidential Results: 55.5 – 42.7 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Steve Bieda (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Fred Miller (D) State Rep. (2004-   )

Tory Rocca (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 11 Alan Sanborn (R) OPEN

Northern Macomb County

This district is very conservative, but if nutjob crazy Leon Drolet gets the Republican nomination, a Democrat would have a chance here. Still, the Republican should be favored.

Presidential Results: 50.6 – 47.7 McCain

Announced Candidates: Leon Drolet

Potential Candidates:

Kim Meltzer (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Brian Palmer (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Likely Republican

District 12 Mike Bishop (R) OPEN

Pontiac, Rochester, Auburn Hills, North East Oakland County

Majority leader Bishop is term limited in this swing district in Oakland County.  Although President Obama won this district, I’m not extremely optimistic about picking this one up because Obama’s margin of victory was almost entirely from majority black Pontiac, where turnout won’t be as high next year.

Presidential Results: 52.5 – 46.0 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Tim Melton (D) State Rep. (2006 –  )

Tom McMillan (R) State Rep. (2008-   )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 13 John Pappageorge (R)

Royal Oak, Madison Heights, Berkley, Troy, Bloomfield, Birmingham

In 2006, State Rep. John Pappageorge beat Andy Levin (son of Sandy Levin) by less than 1,000 votes.  Many Democrats blamed Levin’s loss on Kyle McBee, the Green Party candidate who took 3,129 votes, more than 3 times Pappageorge’s margin of victory.  Democrats will challenge Pappageorge again, although it isn’t clear whether Levin will try again, or a State Representative like Marie Donigan will give it a shot.

Presidential Results: 53.7 – 44.8 Obama

Announced Challengers:

Potential Challengers:

Andy Levin (D) 2006 nominee

Marie Donigan (D) State Rep. (2002-   )

Rating: Tossup

District 14 Gilda Jacobs (D) OPEN

Farmington Hills, Southfield, Huntington Woods, Oak Park, Ferndale

This district is probably the most liberal district in Michigan, although not the most Democratic.  Rep. Gilda Jacobs is term limited, and while the all three of the State Reps. in the district are freshmen, whoever wins the Dem nomination will win.

Presidential Results: 74.6 – 24.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Rep. Ellen Cogen Lipton (D) (2008-   )

David Coulter (D) Oakland County Commission (2002-  )

Helaine Zack (D) Oakland County Commission (2002-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 15 Nancy Cassis (R) OPEN

Novi, South Lyon, West Bloomfield Township, Northville

I was shocked when I calculated the results for this district.  A decade ago, this was at least one of, if not the most Republican area in Michigan.  Western Oakland County being so Republican is the reason that we have Thad McCotter and Craig DeRoche, and yet this district voted for Barack Obama.  Even the city of Novi voted for him.  And better yet, he won by more than 3,000 votes!  Still, locally we have a while to go before a Democrat can represent Western Oakland County in the State Legislature.  I’m not very keen on this district as a possible pickup in ’10.

Presidential Results: 50.3 – 48.2 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Craig DeRoche (R) State Rep. (2000-2006)

David Law (R) State Rep. (2004-2008)

Rating: Likely Republican

District 16 Cameron Brown (R) OPEN, Lenawee, Branch, Hillsdale, and St. Joseph Counties

I doubt this district will be competitive, unless State Rep. Dudley Spade (D) runs, but even then a Republican like Bruce Caswell starts off with an advantage.

Presidential Results: 49.8 – 48.3 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Dudley Spade (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Bruce Caswell (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rick Schaffer (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Likely Republican

District 17 Randy Richardville (R) Monroe County, South Washtenaw, East Jackson

Not only the most gerrymandered, but also one of the most closely divided districts in Michigan, this one will likely be home to another competitive race in 2010.  The Washtenaw County portion of this district favors Dems, while the Jackson county portion favors Republicans and Monroe county is a swing region.  In fact, the Presidential results here are almost exactly what President Obama got nationwide, giving it a 2008 PVI of EVEN.  Unfortunately, our bench in this district isn’t the greatest, with our strongest possible candidate running for Secretary of State.  Still, State Rep. Kate Ebli might be able to beat Richardville.

Presidential Results: 52.7 – 45.6 Obama

Announced Challengers:

Potential Challengers:

Kate Ebli (D) State Rep. (2005-   )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 18 Liz Brater (D) Open Washtenaw County, Ann Arbor

One of the most Democratic districts in Michigan and the home of the University of Michigan.  The Democratic bench in this district is quite deep.  Any Democrat is safe here.

Presidential Results: 73.7 – 26.2 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

John Hieftje (D) Mayor of Ann Arbor

Rebekah Warren (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Pam Byrnes (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Chris Kolb (D) State Rep. (2000-2006)

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 19 VACANT (D)  Calhoun County (Battle Creek) and most of Jackson County

This is the Senate seat that Mark Schauer left vacant when he moved up to Congress last year.  It is usually a swing district, although President Obama won it with votes to spare.  Because this seat is vacant, there will be a special election to fill it later this year.  The Primary will be August 4th and the General on November 9th.

The Democratic candidates are State Rep. Martin Griffin of Jackson, and Sharon Reiner, who ran for congress in 2006 and 2008, narrowly losing to Tim Walberg and then losing badly in the primary to Mark Schauer.  Griffin is backed by the State Democratic Party and should win the Primary.  The Republican candidates are State Rep. Mike Nofs of Battle Creek and Sandstone Township Supervisor C. James Wellman.  Nofs, who is a moderate and popular in the Battle Creek area, should win the primary.  

The fact that 1. Nofs is very moderate 2. He’s very well known and liked in the Battle Creek area and 3. This will be a low turnout special election makes this a tough race for us.  Both parties with certainly spend a lot of money here.  Martin Griffin is from the Jackson area, which is an advantage, as Mark Schauer lost Jackson County in 2002 when he first ran for the State Senate.  If we lose this race it will make it that much more difficult to retake the Senate, so in some ways, whether or not Democrats can gain the trifecta and control redistricting depends on this race.

Presidential Results: 52.7 – 45.6 Obama

Candidates:  

Martin Griffin (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Sharon Reiner (D)

Mike Nofs (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

C. James Wellman (R) Sandstone Township Board Memeber

Rating: Tossup

District 20 Thomas George (R) OPEN Kalamazoo County, part of Van Buren County

Tom George, who is running for Governor, will be vacating the 2nd most Democratic seat currently held by a Republican, going by Obama’s winning percentage.  The Republican field is already starting to shape up, with former State Rep. Lawrence Wenke, who’s district included part of Western Kalamazoo County, and current State Rep. Tonya Schuitamaker are both running.  Schuitamaker’s base is Van Buren County, which she represents.  This district only includes two townships in Van Buren, so she would probably be at a disadvantage against Wenke in the primary.  Still, Republicans would do well to nominate someone from the city of Kalamazoo or it’s suburbs, and both Wenke and Schuitamaker are from the rural parts of the district.

Democrats have a few good potential candidates.  Former state Rep. and 2006 candidate Alex Lipsey, State Rep. Robert Jones, or Kalamazoo County Commission Chairman David Buskirk.

Presidential Results: 58.6 – 39.7 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Lawrence Wenke (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Tonya Schuitamaker (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Potential Candidates:

Alex Lipsey (D) State Rep. (2000-2006)

Robert Jones (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

David Buskirk (D) Kalamazoo County Commissioner; Chairman

Rating: Tossup

District 21 Ron Jelinek (R) OPEN Berrien, Cass and Van Buren Counties

A historically Republican area, President Obama did very well here.  This area is home to a lot of moderate Republicans (Fred Upton is from this area), and Berrien County is home to a lot of African-Americans.  Democrats have a very weak bench here, so don’t expect a win here.

Presidential Results: 52.1 – 46.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Judy Truesdell (D) 2006 and 2008 Candidate for State House

John Proos (R) State Rep. (2002-   )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 22 Valde Garcia (R) OPEN Livingston, Shiawassee, and Southern Ingham Counties

Livingston County is one of the most Republican Counties in Michigan.  You can be sure that another conservative “family values” Republican will be elected to replace Senator Garcia.

Presidential Results: 52.4 – 45.8 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Joe Hune (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Chris Ward (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Safe Republican

District 23 Gretchen Whitmer (D) Ingham County (Lansing)

Gretchen Whitmer will be safe if she runs for re-election.  If she runs for Attorney General, as many expect her to, there is a strong bench of Democrats in the lansing area to take her place.

Presidential Results: 67.2 – 31.3 Obama

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 24 Patricia Birkholz (R) OPEN Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties

Although Eaton county showed an impressive swing towards President Obama, the rest of this district, especially heavily Dutch Allegan, is still strongly Republican.

Presidential Results: 50.5 – 47.6 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Brian Calley (R) State Rep. (2006-   )

Rick Jones (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Fulton Sheen (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Safe Republican

District 25 Judson Gilbert (R) OPEN Lapeer and St. Clair Counties

Lapeer and St. Clair Counties are mostly suburban/exurban areas north of Detroit.  There is also quite a bit of rural farmland and the medium sized city of Port Huron.  A democrat could win here, expecially moderate like John Espinoza, although he doesn’t actually live in the district.  The Republicans have a deep bench here, and I’m not sure whether or not the State Democratic party will decide to put money here.

Presidential Results: 49.2 – 48.6

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

John Espinoza (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Phillip Pavlov (R) State Rep. (2004-  )

John Stahl (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Leans Republican

District 26 Deb Cherry (D) OPEN North and East Genesee County, Central Oakland County, Waterford

I don’t know why, but for some reason Republicans gave this suburban Flint area district an arm that reaches into central Oakland County, and they actually used touch-point contiguity to connect it to Waterford Township.  Maybe it was to make this district more Republican, although Waterford voted easily for Obama.  This district was held by Lt. Gov. John Cherry, and is now held by his sister, Deb.  It’s comfortably Democratic, but rising star, moderate African-American Republican Paul Scott could concievably give a Democrat a run for their money.

Presidential Results: 55.8 – 42.4 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Richard Hammel (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Jim Slezak (D) State Rep. (2008-   )

Ted Hammon (D) State Rep. (2006-2008)

Fran Amos (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Paul Scott (R) State Rep. (2008-  )

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 27 John Gleason (D) Flint, South-West Genesee County

The other Genessee County District, this one is much more Democratic.  It includes the city of Flint and other very Democratic areas west of the city.  If Gleason primaries Dale Kildee, there is a big Democratic bench here.

Presidential Results: 68.8 – 29.7 Obama

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 28 Mark Jansen (R) Kent County, suburban Grand Rapids

The 28th District is very strangely shaped.  It skirts around the city of Grand Rapids but includes conservative suburbs like Wyoming.  Mark Jansen should have not trouble winning re-election.

Presidential Results: 55.9 – 42.5 McCain

Rating: Safe Republican

District 29 Bill Hardiman (R) OPEN Grand Rapids, Kentwood

This is another district that we almost must win if we want to retake the senate.  It is the most Democratic district currently held by a Republican, going by Barack Obama’s winning margin.  It is basically all of the city of Grand Rapids plus a few suburbs.  Both Republicans and Democrats have decent benches here, but Democrats have been making gains lately (we won a state house seat in 2006).  I think that at the end of the day, the Democrat will win this district.

Presidential Results: 59.1 – 39.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Michael Sak (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

David LaGrand (D) Grand Rapids City Commissioner and 2006 Candidate

George Heartwell (D) Grand Rapids Mayor

Carol Hennessy (D) Minority Vice-Chair, Kent County Commission

Dave Hildenbrand (R) State Rep. (2004-  )

Glenn Steil (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Justin Amash (R) State Rep. (2008-   )

Jerry Kooiman (R) State Rep. (2000-2006)

Rating: Tossup

District 30 Wayne Kuipers (R) OPEN Ottawa County

This district is home to Ottawa County, one of the fastest growing and most Republican counties in Michigan.  Although, like with the South, as the population grows, so does the Democratic performance.  I’d estimate we may start winning this district by the 2020’s, but until then it will remain safely in Republican hands.

Presidential Results: 61.0 – 37.4 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

David Agema (R) State Rep. (2006-  )

Arlan Meekhof (R) State Rep. (2006-  )

Rating: Safe Republican

District 31 James Barcia (D) OPEN Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Bay, and Arenac Counties

Former Congressman James Barcia is term limited in this big district which includes the “Thumb” region and wraps around Saginaw Bay, including Bay City.  It’s relatively Democratic, although not overwhelmingly.  Democrats have a good bench, and State Rep. Jeff Mayes would be a big improvement over the moderate to conservative Barcia.

Presidential Results: 51.8 – 46.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Jeff Mayes (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Terry Brown (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

John Espinoza (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 32 Roger Kahn (R) Saginaw and Gratiot Counties

In 2006, Roger Kahn (AKA Kaaahn!!) won this seat by only 450 votes.  He’s had sort of a rough first term, alledgedly getting into a physical altercation with a 72 year old female Senator Irma Clark-Coleman (D) of Detroit.  The incident was so bizarre that I think that I should post here excerpts from Clark-Coleman’s letter to Majority leader Bishop:

I submit this letter as a formal complaint against the State Senator

from the 32nd District who is a menace to the state legislature. He

perpetrated petulant and violent behavior toward me following a Senate

Appropriation committee meeting yesterday afternoon in the Capitol

building. I ask that you sanction him for conduct unbecoming of an

elected official. I am fearful that given the opportunity, this

legislator would continue to use physical intimidation to reinforce his

policy positions.

He accosted me inside of the main elevator. He rushed at me as if he

were going to strike me in the face after I expressed my great

displeasure with the committee’s approval of the Senate substitute for

HB 4436, which decimates Wayne County’s and Detroit’s ability to provide

mental and medical treatment for poor and uninsured residents…

The Senator from Saginaw charged at me like a bull while we were both

confined in a 6 x 6 elevator. His hysterical behavior startled

citizens who like me were simply trying to leave the Capitol building.

Everyone looked on in horror until the good Senator from the 13th

District blocked his advance to my side of the elevator car.

As the doors opened on the ground floor, the Senator from Troy took me

by the elbow and escorted me out of harm’s way. Despite my exit, the

legislator from the 32nd District continued his verbal assault. His

bellowing startled the Kentwood Senator and the state Budget Director

who were conversing at the visitor’s desk. Both gentlemen looked up in

utter amazement.

Never, in my twelve years as a state legislator, seven years as a member

of the Detroit Board of Education, and thirty years as a Wayne County

employee have I been attacked for my policy positions. I commend Troy’s

best for his quick action to shield me from my aggressor who had lost

control of his temper and his ability to reason.

Senator Kahn denies this, although it’s pretty crazy if true.  That, plus the Democratic nature of this district means he should be in for a tough race next year.

Presidential Results: 56.9 – 41.5 Obama

Announced Challengers:

Potential Challengers:

Andy Colouris (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Carl Williams (D) State Rep. (2000-2006) and 2006 Candidate

Rating: Tossup

District 33 Alan Cropsey (R) OPEN Clinton, Montcalm, Isabella, and Ionia Counties

Cropsey, who has always been to conservative for his district, is term limited.  Based mostly on his strength in Isabella County (home to CMU), Barack Obama won this district.  We also picked up a State House seat within this district last year, and we will probably pick up another one next year.  Still, our bench is not very strong here.  Democratic turnout may not be a strong next year, either, so I’m cautious about this district.

Presidential Results: 50.7 – 47.4 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Mike Huckleberry (D) State Rep. (2008-  ), 2004 and 2006 candidate for Congress

Bill Caul (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Paul Opsommer (R) State Rep. (2006-  )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 34 Gerald VanWoerkom (R) OPEN Muskegon, Oceana, Newaygo, and Mason Counties

It’s difficult to tell this far out, but I think that if we win any seats next year, this is our best shot.  Moderate Muskegon Republican Gerald VanWoerkom is retiring, and the Republican candidate to replace him looks to be State Rep. Geoff Hansen, although former State Rep. David Farhat it “thinking about it.”

Either way, we start out with an advantage.  Unlike VanWoerkom, who represented Muskegon County in the House, Hansen hails from the rural Northern portion of the district.  David Farhat, on the other hand, represented the same district as VanWoerkom.  That is, until he was spanked in 2006 by Dem Mary Valentine (he lost 56-44).  Mary Valentine has announced that she is running. Her popularity in the more suburban and rural part of the district and the fact that Farhat is thought to be somewhat corrupt, and Hansen has no base in Muskegon tells me that this one looks like a pickup.

Presidential Results: 58.3 – 40.0 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Mary Valentine (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Geoff Hansen (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Potential Candidates:

Mary Valentine (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Doug Bennett (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Julie Dennis (D) State Rep. (1998-2004) and 2006 Candidate

David Farhat (R) State Rep. (2002-2006)

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 35 Michelle McManus (R) OPEN Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Kalkaska, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Lake, Osceola, Clare, and Mecosta Counties

I consider Michelle McManus to be Michigan’s version of Michelle Bachmann.  She’s crazy, loud, and extremely conservative.  Luckily, she’s term limited.  Unluckily, she’s running for Secretary of State.  I doubt, however, that she’ll make it out of the Primary.  Obama won her district, and we picked up a State House seat, but our bench is weak in the North-Western Lower Peninsula area.  

Presidential Results: 49.3 – 49.0 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Darwin Booher (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

David Palsrok (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Leans Republican

District 36 Tony Stamas (R) OPEN Alpena, Alcona, Iosco, Ogemaw, Midland, Gladwin, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Otsego Counties

Although Republican leaning nationally, this is a swing district in local in statewide races.  The southernmost county, Midland, favors Republicans.  In fact, the Republicans intetionally drew the Democratic northern Counties, especially Alpena, with Midland to create a Republican district.  In 2002, Alpena Democrat Andy Neumann ran against Midland Republican Tony Stamas, with Stamas prevailing narrowly.  Stamas in now term limited and Neumann, who is a State Representative, is “Strongly Leaning Towards running,” also likely to run is State Rep. Joel Sheltrown (D), who is more moderate than Neumann, and also not from the Alpena area, but Iosco County in the center of the district.  I think that Sheltrown would be a stronger candidate, but the primary will be nasty.  The Republican candidate will probably be former State Rep. John Moolenaar of Midland.

Presidential Results: 49.9 – 48.1 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Andy Neumann (D) State Rep. (1998-2002, 2008-   )

Joel Sheltrown (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

John Moolenaar (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Tossup

District 37 Jason Allen (R) OPEN Grand Traverse, Antrim, Charlevoix, Emmett, Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Mackinac, and Chippewa Counties

This is the most Republican Northern Michigan District.  I starts at Traverse City, then jumps the Straits of Mackinac and takes in Mackinac and Chippewa Counties in the U.P., including Sault Ste. Marie.  The Traverse City area has quite a few Republicans to replace Senator Allen, but Emmett, Mackinac, and Chippewa Counties, also a Republican area, are represented by State Rep. Gary McDowell (D).  McDowell is term limited and I could concievably see him winning this district, although it would be an uphill climb.

Presidential Results: 50.8 – 47.5

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Gary McDowell (D) State Rep. (2004-   )

Howard Walker (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Leans Republican

District 38 Mike Prusi (D) OPEN Keweenaw, Houghton, Ontonagon, Gogebic, Baraga, Iron, Dickinson, Marquette, Menominee, Delta, Alger, Schoolcraft, and Luce Counties.

My home district! I’ll be sad to see Prusi go, but it’s more important that we get a progressive Dem like him to take his place.  The Democratic bench is deep, the Republican one, not so much.  The Presidential results are a bit misleading, as the Democratic baseline here is far higher than President Obama’s total (which was still a comfortable win).  The most likely candidate is probably former State Rep. Tom Casperson, although the spanking he received at the Hands of Bart Stupak last year make keep him out of politics forever.  If he doesn’t run, it’s likely Dem.  If he does, it’s leans Dem.  Democrats hold every house seat in this district, and other than Casperson, we have for years, so we’ve got a very strong bench.  The two progressive Dems, Steve Lindberg and fmr. Rep. Steve Adamini are from Marquette, while the more conservative Reps are Mike Lahti of Houghton County and Judy Nerat of Menominee County.  

Presidential Results: 52.5 – 45.5

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Steve Lindberg (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Mike Lahti (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Steve Adamini (D) State Rep. (2000-2006), 2008 Candidate for Marquette County Prosecutor, Northern Michigan University Board of Trustees

Judy Nerat (D) State Rep. (2008-   )

Tom Casperson (R) State Rep. (2002-2008) and 2008 Candidate for Congress

Joel Westrom (R) First District GOP chairman and 2006 Candidate for State House

Rating: Leans Democrat

And for those who skipped some of that, here’s my summary.  Republican seats are bold and italic

Safe Democrat Seats

District 1 (OPEN)

District 2 (OPEN)

District 3 (OPEN)

District 4 (OPEN)

District 5 Hunter

District 8 (OPEN)

District 14 (OPEN)

District 23 (OPEN)

District 27 Gleason

Likely Democrat Seats

District 6 Anderson

District 9 (OPEN)

Leans Democrat Seats

District 10 (OPEN)

District 26 (OPEN)

District 31 (OPEN)

District 34 (OPEN)

District 38 (OPEN)

Tossup Seats

District 7 (OPEN)

District 13 Pappageorge

District 19 VACANT

District 20 (OPEN)

District 29 (OPEN)

District 32 Kahn

District 36 (OPEN)

Lean Republican Seats

District 12 (OPEN)

District 17 Richardville

District 21 (OPEN)

District 25 (OPEN)

District 33 (OPEN)

District 35 (OPEN)

District 37 (OPEN)

Likely Republican Seats

District 11 (OPEN)

District 15 (OPEN)

District 16 (OPEN)

Safe Republican Seats

District 22 (OPEN)

District 24 (OPEN)

District 28 Jansen

District 30 (OPEN)

State Sen. Tom White filed papers today to form an exploratory committee to run for congress in Nebraska’s second district as a Democrat against Republican Lee Terry. He sent out an email to supporters and posted a diary at DailyKos announcing the filing, putting an emphasis on health care reform and jobs. Senator White was previously mentioned here on SSP which seems to have caught White’s attention – it’s the first post listed in his candidate website newsroom, followed by stories from Roll Call, the Omaha World Herald, and the progressive blog New Nebraska Network (where he also posted an announcement diary today).

White’s official press release lists his legislative accomplishments as follows:

Passed the Taxpayer Transparency Act, which will cut wasteful spending by putting Nebraska’s checkbook online for taxpayers to monitor spending and tax incentives.

Passed legislation to add screen names and email addresses to sex offender registry, giving parents important tools to keep their kids safe online.

Passed legislation to create quality jobs by increasing the research and development tax credit for research conducted at colleges and universities in Nebraska.

Passed legislation to increase access to affordable healthcare by allowing 20-somethings to stay on their parents insurance.

As a member of the Revenue Committee, was involved in eliminating the marriage penalty in the state income tax and the state estate tax.

Passed the Military Family Leave Act to help spouses and families of those on active duty. It also bars employers from discriminating against those called to active duty.

NY-Gov should be completely uninteresting for most poll junkies by now – another day, another poll showing Paterson getting creamed by Cuomo.

Quinnipiac (HTML – June 16-21, registered voters)

David Paterson: 20%

Andrew Cuomo: 57%

MoE: +3%

Here’s the slightly more newsworthy bit – Sen. Gillibrand is behind Rep. Carolyn Maloney for the 2010 Senate nomination:

Quinnipiac (HTML – June 16-21, registered voters)

Kirsten Gillibrand: 23%

Carolyn Maloney: 27%

Jonathan Tasini: 4%

Don’t Know:: 44%

MoE: +3%

Don’t Know still winds in a landslide, naturally – but I’m wondering what is keeping Gillibrand’s numbers so far in the pits, considering that she’s fairly smoothly transitioned from upstate conservative Democrat to the liberal New York mainstream. My thought was a sort of “throw the bums out” mentality, considering how badly Paterson is doing.

The fav/unfav of Gillibrand and Maloney are pretty similar – not many people have heard enough about them yet to really form an opinion one way or the other.

Gillibrand’s, among Democrats:

Favorable: 29%

Unfavorable: 8%

Haven’t Heard Enough 63%

And Maloney’s, among Democrats

Favorable: 34%

Unfavorable: 2%

Haven’t Heard Enough 63%

I think Gillibrand will be fine in the primary in the end. I don’t know that any of the attacks from the downstate Democrats will necessarily stick as her voting record in the Senate gets fleshed out over the next year or so, and Upstate Democrats adore her, so she really just has to win a plurality of the NYC vote to carry the primary (or even a close second).

Bonus question from the Q-poll:

DavidNYC’s favorables, among Democrats:

Favorable: 63%

Unfavorable: 10%

Haven’t Heard Enough 27%

Obviously DavidNYC should be the Democratic Party’s choice for this one. Peter Fucking King stands no chance.

Yesterday I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.

Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the shiny new 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

As we assumed for us so should we assume for them; so all 178 Republican held districts can be considered filled (although I think we may sneak a win in the NY-23rd Special).

85 Democratic held Districts have confirmed GOP candidates:

AL-02 (Bright) – R+16,

AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,

AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) – R+6,

AZ-05 (Mitchell) – R+5,

AZ-07 (Grijalva) – D+6,

AZ-08 (Giffords) – R+4,

AR-01 (Berry) – R+8,

CA-01 (Thompson) – D+13,

CA-08 (Pelosi) – D+35,

CA-10 (VACANT) – D+11,

CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,

CA-30 (Waxman) – D+18,

CA-32 (Chu) – D+15,

CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,

CA-53 (Davis) – D+14,

CO-03 (Salazar) – R+5,

CO-04 (Markey) – R+6,

CO-07 (Perlmutter) – D+4,

CT-02 (Courtney) – D+6,

CT-03 (DeLauro) – D+9,

CT-05 (Murphy) – D+2,

FL-02 (Boyd) – R+6,

FL-03 (Brown) – D+18,

FL-08 (Grayson) – R+2,

FL-11 (Castor) – D+11,

FL-17 (Meek OPEN) – D+34,

FL-19 (Wexler) – D+15,

FL-20 (Wasserman Schulz) – D+13,

FL-21 (Klein) – D+1,

FL-23 (Hastings) – D+28,

FL-24 (Kosmas) – R+4,

GA-12 (Barrow) – D+1,

HI-01 (Abercrombie OPEN) – D+11,

ID-01 (Minnick) – R+18,

IL-11 (Halvorson) – R+1,

IL-14 (Foster) – R+1,

IL-17 (Hare) – D+3,

IN-08 (Ellsworth) – R+8,

IN-09 (Hill) – R+6,

IA-02 (Loebsack) – D+1,

ME-02 (Michaud) – D+3,

MD-01 (Kratovil) – R+13,

MD-03 (Sarbanes) – D+6,

MD-08 (Van Hollen Jr) – D+21,

MA-02 (Neal) – D+9,

MA-04 (Frank) – D+14,

MA-05 (Tsongas) – D+8,

MI-09 (Peters) – D+2,

MI-12 (Levin) – D+12,

MN-04 (McCollum) – D+13,

NH-01 (Shea Porter) – D+0,

NH-02 (Hodes OPEN) – D+3,

NJ-12 (Holt) – D+5,

NY-01 (Bishop) – D+0,

NY-19 (Hall) – R+3,

NY-22 (Hinchey) – D+6,

NY-25 (Maffei) – D+3,

NC-04 (Price) – D+8,

NC-07 (McIntyre) – R+5,

OH-01 (Driehaus) – D+1,

OH-15 (Kilroy) – D+1,

OH-18 (Space) – R+7,

OK-02 (Boren) – R+14,

OR-04 (DeFazio) – D+2,

PA-03 (Dahlkemper) – R+3,

PA-12 (Murtha) – R+1,

RI-01 (Kennedy) – D+13,

RI-02 (Langevin) – D+9,

TN-04 (Davis) – R+13,

TN-06 (Gordon) – R+13,

TN-08 (Tanner) – R+6,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

VA-02 (Nye) – R+5,

VA-05 (Perriello) – R+5,

WA-03 (Baird) – D+0,

WA-06 (Dicks) – D+5,

WA-09 (Smith) – D+5,

WV-01 (Mollohan) – R+9,

WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6,

WI-04 (Moore) – D+22,

WI-07 (Obey) – D+3,

WI-08 (Kagen) – R+2,

15 Democratic held Districts have GOP candidates that are considering a run:

AR-02 (Snyder) – R+5,

CA-33 (Watson) – D+35,

CT-04 (Himes) – D+5,

IA-03 (Boswell) – D+1,

MS-01 (Childers) – R+14,

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,

NM-01 (Heinrich) – D+5,

NM-02 (Teague) – R+6,

NY-24 (Arcuri) – R+2,

NC-08 (Kissell) – R+2,

NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,

PA-10 (Carney) – R+8,

PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,

PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,

5 Democratic held Districts have rumoured GOP Party candidates:

KS-03 (Moore) – R+3,

LA-03 (Melancon) – R+12,

NY-29 (Massa) – R+5,

PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,

PA-07 (Sestak) – D+3,

152 Democratic held Districts don’t have any GOP candidates:

AL-07 (Davis OPEN) – D+18,

AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,

AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,

CA-05 (Matsui) – D+15,

CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,

CA-07 (Miller) – D+19,

CA-09 (Lee) – D+37,

CA-12 (Speier) – D+23,

CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,

CA-14 (Eshoo) – D+21,

CA-15 (Honda) – D+15,

CA-16 (Lofgren) – D+16,

CA-17 (Farr) – D+19,

CA-18 (Cardoza) – D+4,

CA-20 (Costa) – D+5,

CA-23 (Capps) – D+12,

CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,

CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,

CA-29 (Schiff) – D+14,

CA-31 (Becerra) – D+29,

CA-34 (Roybal-Allard) – D+22,

CA-35 (Waters) – D+31,

CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,

CA-37 (Richardson) – D+26,

CA-38 (Napolitano) – D+18,

CA-39 (Sanchez) – D+12,

CA-43 (Baca) – D+13,

CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,

CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,

CO-02 (Polis) – D+11,

CT-01 (Larson) – D+13,

GA-02 (Bishop) – D+1,

GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,

GA-05 (Lewis) – D+26,

GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,

GA-13 (Scott) – D+15,

HI-02 (Hirono) – D+14,

IL-01 (Rush) – D+34,

IL-02 (Jackson Jr) – D+36,

IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,

IL-04 (Gutierrez) – D+32,

IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,

IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,

IL-08 (Bean) – R+1,

IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,

IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,

IN-01 (Visclosky) – D+8,

IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,

IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,

IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,

KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,

KY-06 (Chandler) – R+9,

ME-01 (Pingree) – D+8,

MD-02 (Ruppersberger) – D+7,

MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,

MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,

MD-07 (Cummings) – D+25,

MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,

MA-03 (McGovern) – D+9,

MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7,

MA-07 (Markey) – D+15,

MA-08 (Capuano) – D+32,

MA-09 (Lynch) – D+11,

MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,

MI-01 (Stupak) – R+3,

MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,

MI-07 (Schauer) – R+2,

MI-13 (Kilpatrick) – D+31,

MI-14 (Conyers) – D+34,

MI-15 (Dingell) – D+13,

MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,

MN-05 (Ellison) – D+23,

MN-07 (Peterson) – R+5,

MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,

MS-02 (Thompson) – D+12,

MS-04 (Taylor) – R+20,

MO-01 (Clay) – D+27,

MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,

MO-04 (Skelton) – R+14,

MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,

NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,

NJ-01 (Andrews) – D+12,

NJ-06 (Pallone) – D+8,

NJ-08 (Pascrell) – D+10,

NJ-09 (Rothman) – D+9,

NJ-10 (Payne) – D+33,

NJ-13 (Sires) – D+21,

NM-03 (Lujan) – D+7,

NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,

NY-04 (McCarthy) – D+6,

NY-05 (Ackerman) – D+12,

NY-06 (Meeks) – D+36,

NY-07 (Crowley) – D+26,

NY-08 (Nadler) – D+22,

NY-09 (Weiner) – D+5,

NY-10 (Towns) – D+38,

NY-11 (Clarke) – D+38,

NY-12 (Velazquez) – D+33,

NY-13 (McMahon) – R+4,

NY-14 (Maloney) – D+26,

NY-15 (Rangel) – D+41,

NY-16 (Serrano) – D+41,

NY-17 (Engel) – D+18,

NY-18 (Lowey) – D+9,

NY-20 (Murphy) – R+2,

NY-21 (Tonko) – D+6,

NY-27 (Higgins) – D+4,

NY-28 (Slaughter) – D+15,

NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,

NC-02 (Etheridge) – R+2,

NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,

NC-13 (Miller) – D+5,

ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,

OH-06 (Wilson) – R+2,

OH-09 (Kaptor) – D+10,

OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,

OH-11 (Fudge) – D+32,

OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

OH-17 (Ryan OPEN) – D+12,

OR-01 (Wu) – D+8,

OR-03 (Blumenauer) – D+19,

OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,

PA-01 (Brady) – D+35,

PA-02 (Fattah) – D+38,

PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,

PA-13 (Schwartz) – D+7,

PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,

SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,

SC-06 (Clyburn) – D+12,

SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin) – R+9,

TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,

TN-09 (Cohen) – D+23,

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

UT-02 (Matheson) – R+15,

VT-AL (Welch) – D+13,

VA-03 (Scott) – D+20,

VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,

VA-09 (Boucher) – R+11,

VA-11 (Connolly) – D+2,

WA-01 (Inslee) – D+9,

WA-02 (Larsen) – D+3,

WA-07 (McDermott) – D+31,

WI-02 (Baldwin) – D+15,

WI-03 (Kind) – D+4,

So the Republicans have confirmed candidates in 263 districts. Take a look at some of their challengers websites though and your eyeballs will bleed. They also have 15 districts with candidates that are considering a run and 5 districts with rumoured candidates.

Whilst they are behind us numerically they have more in ours than we have in theirs.

They also have some huge gaps in California and New York.

They already have a full House slate in Alaska, Delaware, Florida, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, West Virginia and Wyoming (we have 15 such states).

They also have but one slot to fill in Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine,  North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Vermont (we have 7 such states).

Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

More updates soon.

(This diary is cross-posted on the Daily Kos)

Two months ago, I posted a diary here, “Redistricting Maryland: 8 Democratic Seats”

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

I have since then worked with the map to design a plan which will make it even more likely that eight Democrats can be elected in 2012.  I must admit that the resulting map is quite gerrymandered (though not more so than the existing Maryland map).  I am opposed to highly gerrymandered redistricting in principle.  Even though the Supreme Court has clearly ruled that political gerrymandering (as opposed to gerrymandering where race is the predominant factor) is permissible, I just think that it ultimately lets some politicians decide who their voters are going to be, instead of the other way around.  However, as long as the Republicans continue to do it, there is no reason why Democrats should disarm unilaterally.  

I tried to make the new map reflective of 2010 population estimates, as different parts of Maryland have experienced varying population growth levels.  For example, the population of Baltimore City is expected to decline slightly between the 2000 and 2010 Censuses, while some outer exurban areas of Baltimore and Washington are expected to show increases of 20% or more.  The new map reflects this reality.  The map keeps intact much of the territory of the current seven Democratic representatives, while still creating an additional eighth Democratic seat.

As in my April post, the map below demonstrates that it is very possible to redistrict Maryland in a manner in which eight Democrats can be elected to Congress from the state.  I have refined the map whereby seven Democratic districts (Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8) voted for Obama by at least a 22.5 point margin.  Districts 4 and 7 remain African-American majority, as is necessary per the VRA.  (Both districts are ensured to elect an African-American Democrat, as 70% or more of the Democratic primary vote in each district is expected to be comprised of African-Americans.)  The proposed District 1 goes from one which McCain won by 18.5 points to one which Obama wins by 6.4 points; if Kratovil makes it through 2010, he will be more than safe in the new MD-1.  The proposed District 6 goes from one which McCain won by 17.5 points to one which Obama wins by 22.6 points.  In the discussion of each district (below the map) I also discuss how these new districts performed in other recent Maryland political races (2004, 2006 and 2008 elections).

Maryland Map:

Central Maryland Map:

Central Maryland Maps with precincts:

Note:  Additional supplemental maps can be found at bottom of diary.

Discussion of Individual Districts:

YELLOW – District 1:  Frank Kratovil (home: Queen Anne’s County)

Current District:  Obama 39.8%; McCain 58.3% (McCain + 18.5)

Proposed District:  Obama 52.3%; McCain 45.9% (Obama + 6.4)

Proposed District:  Kerry 47.9%; Bush 51.1%

Proposed District:  Cardin 45.6%; Steele 52.7%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 44.5%; Ehrlich 54.4%

This district continues to encompass the entire Eastern Shore.  The new district proceeds through parts of northern Harford and Baltimore Counties (although it completely excludes the State Senate District of 2008 GOP Candidate Andy Harris) and into very Democratic territory on the western side of Baltimore County.   The district also includes the Annapolis area in Anne Arundel County.  Interestingly, both the Obama-McCain and Kerry-Bush percentages of the new district correspond very closely to the national average.

Major communities in proposed MD-1 district: all of Eastern Shore; Harford County – Bel Air (part); Baltimore County – Randallstown, Lochearn, Milford Mill, Owings Mills, Reisterstown, Woodlawn (part); Anne Arundel County – Annapolis.

GRAY – District 2:  Dutch Ruppersberger (home: Cockeysville)

Current District:  Obama 59.8%; McCain 38.3% (Obama + 21.5)

Proposed District:  Obama 60.8%; McCain 37.5% (Obama + 23.3)

Proposed District:  Kerry 55.3%; Bush 43.8%

Proposed District:  Cardin 52.3%; Steele 45.9%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 51.0%; Ehrlich 47.8%

The new district continues to include most of the communities currently in MD-2, including parts of Anne Arundel, Harford and Baltimore Counties, as well as Baltimore City (the proposed district includes all areas of Baltimore City currently in MD-2 and also adds the area around Hopkins/Bayview Hospital on the eastern side of the city.)  The new district expands into parts of Prince George’s and Howard Counties.

Major communities in proposed MD-2 district: Baltimore City (part); Anne Arundel County – Brooklyn Park, Glen Burnie (part), Severn, Fort Meade, Odenton, Maryland City; Harford County – Bel Air (part), Fallston, Joppatowne, Edgewood, Aberdeen, Havre de Grace; Baltimore County – Cockeysville, Towson (part), Rosedale, Middle River (part), Essex (part), Dundalk (part); Prince George’s County – Laurel; Howard County – Savage-Guilford.

ORANGE – District 3:  John Sarbanes (home: Towson)

Current District:  Obama 58.8%; McCain 39.2% (Obama + 19.6)

Proposed District:  Obama 60.5%; McCain 38.0% (Obama + 22.5)

Proposed District:  Kerry 55.4%; Bush 43.8%

Proposed District:  Cardin 57.3%; Steele 40.9%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 52.4%; Ehrlich 46.2%

Like MD-2, the new MD-3 remains quite similar to the current district.  Most of the Baltimore City, Baltimore County and Howard County areas remain intact.  Additional territory in Baltimore Co., Howard County and Montgomery County is added.  The Anne Arundel County part of the current district is detached.

Major communities in proposed MD-3 district: Baltimore City (part); Baltimore County Towson (part), ParkvilleCarney, Pikesville, Timonium-Lutherville, Perry Hall, White Marsh, Arbutus, Lansdowne; Howard County – Elkridge, Ellicott City (part), Columbia, North Laurel; Montgomery County – Burtonsville, Colesville, Aspen Hill (part), Olney, Laytonsville.

RED – District 4:  Donna Edwards (home: Fort Washington)

Current District:  Obama 85.1%; McCain 14.2% (Obama + 70.9)

Proposed District:  Obama 70.7%; McCain 28.0% (Obama + 42.7)

Proposed District:  Kerry 64.0%; Bush 34.8%

Proposed District:  Cardin 60.7%; Steele 37.9%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 61.7%; Ehrlich 37.3%

Proposed District African-American: 51%

The new MD-4 continues to encompass much of the same Prince George’s County communities currently in the district.  The Montgomery County part of the current district is detached and is substituted by parts of Anne Arundel and Baltimore Counties; very Republican precincts from both counties are added, and the overall Democratic percentage of the district goes down a lot, but still stays at over 70% Obama (there is completely no need to have a district with an Obama advantage of 85-14 !).

Major communities in proposed MD-4 district: Prince Goerge’s County – Fort Washington (part), Oxon Hill, Temple Hills, Andrews AFB, Forestville, Largo-Kettering, Mitchelville, Glenarden, Bladensburg, Riverdale, Hyattsville (part), College Park (part), Langley Park, Adelphi, Beltsville; Anne Arundel County – Crownsville, Gambrills, Davidsonville (part), Millersville, Severna Park, Pasadena-Lake Shore, Riviera Beach, Glen Burnie (part), Ferndale, Linthicum; Baltimore County – Sparrows Point/Edgemere, Dundalk (part), Essex (part), Middle River (part).

PURPLE – District 5:  Steny Hoyer (home: Mechanicsville)

Current District:  Obama 65.4%; McCain 33.3% (Obama + 32.1)

Proposed District:  Obama 62.7%; McCain 36.0% (Obama + 26.7)

Proposed District:  Kerry 54.7%; Bush 44.5%

Proposed District:  Cardin 53.7%; Steele 45.0%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 54.3%; Ehrlich 44.7%

This district changes relatively very little.  It continues to encompass all of the three Southern Maryland counties, south Anne Arundel Co. and “outer” Prince George’s Co.  Parts of Upper Marlboro as well as Crofton and parts of the Annapolis and Broadneck peninsulas are added, while Laurel and adjoining parts of northern Prince George’s are taken out of the district.  The district becomes slightly less Democratic, but it still has a very healthy 26.7 point Obama advantage over McCain.

Major communities in proposed MD-5 district: All of Southern Maryland – Calvert County, Charles County, St. Mary’s County; Prince Goerge’s County – Fort Washington (part), Clinton, Upper Marlboro, Bowie, Glenn Dale, Greenbelt; Anne Arundel County – Riva, Edgewater, Davidsonville (part), Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Parole/Annapolis, Arnold, Cape St. Claire, Crofton.

GREEN – District 6:  Roscoe Bartlett (home: Frederick)

Current District:  Obama 40.2%; McCain 57.7% (McCain + 17.5)

Proposed District:  Obama 60.3%; McCain 37.7% (Obama + 22.6)

Proposed District:  Kerry 54.3%; Bush 44.7%

Proposed District:  Cardin 54.5%; Steele 44.1%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 51.6%; Ehrlich 47.3%

The new district includes most of Frederick County, parts of Carroll County, as well as a good chunk of Montgomery County.  The new territory in Montgomery is the factor that dramatically changes the political composition of this district, as some of the most Democratic parts of the county are added to MD-6.

Major communities in proposed MD-6 district:  Frederick County – Frederick, Middletown, Thurmont, Emmitsburg, New Market, Mt. Airy; Carroll County – Taneytown, Manchester; Montgomery County – Damascus, Clarksburg, Germantown, Montgomery Village, Aspen Hill (part), Wheaton-Glenmont, White Oak, Silver Spring (part), Takoma Park (part).

BLUE – District 7:  Elijah Cummings (home: Baltimore City)

Current District:  Obama 78.8%; McCain 19.9% (Obama + 58.9)

Proposed District:  Obama 67.0%; McCain 31.5% (Obama + 35.5)

Proposed District:  Kerry 60.8%; Bush 37.9%

Proposed District:  Cardin 55.2%; Steele 42.8%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 55.2%; Ehrlich 43.1%

Proposed District African-American: 51%

The new MD-7 is not that different from the current district.  The Baltimore City portion of the district remains wholly intact, and, in fact, is expanded to include a few additional African-American majority neighborhoods (including the Pimlico and Coldspring areas in the northwestern part of the city).  The Catonsville and Woodlawn areas in western Baltimore County as well as a good portion of Howard County also remain with MD-7. New, more Republican areas in northern Baltimore County, and parts of Carroll and Harford Counties are added to the district.

Major communities in proposed MD-7 district:  Baltimore City (part); Baltimore County – Catonsville, Woodlawn (part); Harford County – Jarretsville; Carroll County – Westminster, Hampstead, Eldersburg, Sykesville; Howard County – Ellicott City (part).

PINK – District 8:  Chris Van Hollen (home: Kensington)

Current District:  Obama 73.9%; McCain 24.7% (Obama + 49.2)

Proposed District:  Obama 62.0%; McCain 36.2% (Obama + 25.8)

Proposed District:  Kerry 56.9%; Bush 41.6%

Proposed District:  Cardin 58.3%; Steele 40.4%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 55.0%; Ehrlich 44.0%

The new district includes most of Montgomery County, parts of Frederick and Prince George’s Counties, as well as all of the three Western Maryland counties.  The district becomes somewhat less Democratic, but the new MD-8 still has some of the state’s best partisan stats (4th best Obama percentage, after the two African-American majority districts, and just behind MD-5; 3rd best Kerry percentage; 3rd best O’Malley percentage – just slightly behind MD-7; and 2nd best Cardin percentage – behind only MD-4 and ahead of both MD-3, Cardin’s home district, and the new MD-7 !).

Major communities in proposed MD-8 district:  All of Western Maryland (Garrett County, Allegany County, Washington County); Frederick County – Brunswick; Montgomery County – Silver Spring (part), Takoma Park (part), Kensington, Chevy Chase, Bethesda, Potomac, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Poolesville; Prince George’s County – Hyattsville (part), Mt. Rainier, Cheverly, Seat Pleasant, Landover.  

Note:  for the entire plan above, the boundaries of only three precincts had to be changed slightly in order to make the map work: 26-7 and 26-11 in Baltimore City, and 4-11 in Baltimore County.

So that’s my Maryland Redistricting Plan – Version 2.  I welcome comments and discussion (if possible, could someone calculate the “PVI’s” for my “new” districts based on the numbers above; I’m not being lazy, just not exactly sure what the current definition is).

Maps of Presidential Performance 2008:

Baltimore City:

Btw, the Baltimore City precinct from the map above that voted 100% for Obama is 15-12, part of the Walbrook neighborhood !  (close-up map is below).  In addition, 47 other precincts in Baltimore City had Obama percentages of 99.0 to 99.9, while 48 voted for Obama at a 98.0 to 98.9% rate (there were also 32 precincts in Prince George’s County that had Obama percentages of between 98.0 and 98.9, and five that voted 99.0 to 99.9% for Obama).  I grew up in Baltimore and currently reside in Silver Spring, and am very proud to live in the great state of Maryland !

In less than 17 months the midterms will be upon us.

In 2006 we fielded candidates in 425 districts and in 2008 candidates in 421.

How will we go in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the shiny new 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Well for starters I think we can safely assume that we will field candidates in all 257 of the Districts that we currently hold (does anyone really think that we won’t win in CA-32 in July?).

So onto the Republican held districts:

40 GOP held Districts have confirmed Democratic Party candidates:

AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,

AR-03 (Boozman) – R+16,

CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,

CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,

CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,

CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,

CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,

CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,

CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,

C0-06 (Coffman) – R+8,

DE-AL (Castle) – D+7,

FL-05 (Brown-Waite) – R+9,

FL-06 (Stearns) – R+10,

FL-07 (Mica) – R+7,

FL-10 (Young) – R+1,

FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,

FL-14 (Mack) – R+11,

IL-10 (Kirk) – D+6,

IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,

IL-18 (Schock) – R+6,

KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,

KY-04 (Davis) – R+14,

KY-05 (Rogers) – R+15,

MD-06 (Bartlett) – R+13,

MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,

MI-11 (McCotter) – R+0,

MT-AL (Rehberg) – R+7,

NE-03 (Smith) – R+24,

NV-02 (Heller) – R+5,

NY-23 (McHugh) – R+1,

OH-02 (Schmidt) – R+13,

PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,

PA-16 (Pitts) – R+8,

TN-03 (Wamp OPEN) – R+13,

TN-07 (Blackburn) – R+18,

TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,

SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,

VA-07 (Cantor) – R+9,

WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,

WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,

10 GOP held Districts have Democratic Party candidates that are considering a run:

AK-AL (Young) – R+13,

CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,

FL-16 (Rooney) – R+5,

LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,

NY-03 (King) – R+4,

OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,

PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,

4 GOP held Districts have rumoured Democratic Party candidates:

FL-13 (Buchanan) – R+6,

MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,

SC-01 (Brown) – R+10,

SC-03 (Barrett OPEN) – R+17,

124 GOP held Districts don’t have any Democratic Party candidates:

AL-01 (Bonner) – R+14,

AL-04 (Aderholt) – R+26,

AL-06 (Bachus) – R+29,

AZ-02 (Franks) – R+13,

AZ-03 (Shadegg) – R+9,

AZ-06 (Flake) – R+15,

CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,

CA-19 (Radanovich) – R+9,

CA-21 (Nunes) – R+13,

CA-22 (McCarthy) – R+16,

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

CA-40 (Royce) – R+8,

CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,

CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,

CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,

CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,

CA-52 (Hunter) – R+9,

C0-05 (Lamborn) – R+14,

FL-01 (Miller) – R+21,

FL-04 (Crenshaw) – R+17,

FL-09 (Bilirakis) – R+6,

FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,

FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,

FL-21 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

GA-01 (Kingston) – R+16,

GA-03 (Westmoreland) – R+19,

GA-06 (Price) – R+19,

GA-07 (Linder) – R+16,

GA-09 (Deal OPEN) – R+28,

GA-10 (Broun) – R+15,

GA-11 (Gingrey) – R+20,

ID-02 (Simpson) – R+17,

IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,

IL-15 (Johnson) – R+6,

IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,

IL-19 (Shimkus) – R+9,

IN-03 (Souder) – R+14,

IN-04 (Buyer) – R+14,

IN-05 (Burton) – R+17,

IN-06 (Pence) – R+10,

IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,

IA-05 (King) – R+9,

KS-01 (Moran OPEN) – R+23,

KS-02 (Jenkins) – R+9,

KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,

KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,

LA-01 (Scalise) – R+24,

LA-04 (Fleming) – R+11,

LA-05 (Alexander) – R+14,

LA-06 (Cassidy) – R+10,

LA-07 (Boustany) – R+14,

MI-02 (Hoekstra OPEN) – R+7,

MI-03 (Ehlers) – R+6,

MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,

MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,

MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,

MI-10 (Miller) – R+5,

MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,

MS-03 (Harper) – R+15,

MO-02 (Akin) – R+9,

MO-06 (Graves) – R+7,

MO-07 (Blunt OPEN) – R+15,

MO-08 (Emerson) – R+17,

MO-09 (Luetkemeyer) – R+9,

NE-01 (Fortenberry) – R+11,

NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,

NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,

NJ-04 (Smith) – R+6,

NJ-05 (Garrett) – R+7,

NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,

NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) – R+7,

NY-26 (Lee) – R+6,

NC-03 (Jones) – R+16,

NC-05 (Foxx) – R+15,

NC-06 (Coble) – R+18,

NC-09 (Myrick) – R+11,

NC-10 (McHenry) – R+17,

OH-03 (Turner) – R+5,

OH-04 (Jordan) – R+15,

OH-05 (Latta) – R+9,

OH-07 (Austria) – R+7,

OH-08 (Boehner) – R+11,

OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,

OK-01 (Sullivan) – R+16,

OK-03 (Lucas) – R+24,

OK-04 (Cole) – R+18,

OK-05 (Fallin OPEN) – R+13,

OR-02 (Walden) – R+10,

PA-05 (Thompson) – R+9,

PA-09 (Shuster) – R+17,

PA-18 (Murphy) – R+6,

PA-19 (Platts) – R+12,

SC-04 (Inglis) – R+15,

TN-01 (Roe) – R+21,

TN-02 (Duncan) – R+16,

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

UT-01 (Bishop) – R+21,

UT-03 (Chaffetz) – R+26,

VA-01 (Wittman) – R+7,

VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,

VA-06 (Goodlatte) – R+12,

VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,

WA-04 (Hastings) – R+13,

WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers) – R+7,

WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,

WI-05 (Sensenbrenner) – R+12,

WY-AL (Lummis) – R+20,

So we now have candidate in 297 House Districts, 10 Districts with candidates considering their options and 4 with rumoured candidates.

Whilst in numerical terms we are about where we were at this stage in 2007 we do now hold 20 more districts but we also control the White House (still love saying that).

So at this stage there is no real cause for concern vis a vis candidate recruitment but so much more remains to be done.

On the upside we already have a full slate in 15 states – Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico :), North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota & Vermont.

We also have only 1 district to fill in 7 states – Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Mississippi, Oregon, West Virginia and Wyoming.  

On the other hand however Texas is a problem for us as it has been for the last two cycles with 19 Districts still to fill. So too do we have far too many vancancies in California and Florida but at least in these 2 states we do already have candidates in a number of Republican districts.

Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

Iowa is among the small number of states that use a bipartisan (or nonpartisan) commission to perform redistricting every 10 years. The resulting maps are often very competitive and fair when compared with those of many other states.

However, I started thinking anout what would happen if, hypothetically, the party in charge of the legislature controlled redistricting rather than the commission. What would such a map look like? How would the current incumbents be affected?

The map the I created was designed to help Democrats because currently the legislature is under Democratic control and the governor is a Democrat. In this hypothetical scenario, Republicans cannot block the plan through filibusters or avoiding a quorum. Also, since Iowa is set to lose one of its districts after the 2010 census, my plan uses four districts rather than the five that currently exist.

My main goals were to:

-Maintain Democratic advantages in eastern Iowa

-Protect Leonard Boswell

-Dismantle Tom Latham’s district and force him to run against Steve King

Here is the current map:

And here is the map that I ended up creating:

Here is some information about this new districts:

1st District (Blue)

Obama-55.21%

McCain-44.79%

Major Cities: Davenport. Dubuque, Waterloo

The new 1st district has all but two of the counties of the current 1st (Jones and Fayette). It picks up all of the counties along the Minnesota border, as well as a number of adjacent counties (basically the northern bits of Latham and King’s districts). It is still considerably Democratic, although less so than before. However, the district is still largely centered in Democratic-leaning northeastern Iowa, so it should elect Bruce Braley or another Democrat easily enough.

2nd District (Red)

Obama-58.89%

McCain-41.11%

Major Cities: Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Burlington

This district keeps all of the counties currently located in Dave Loebsack’s southeastern district, and it gains Jones County from the 1st, as well as a few Republican counties from Steve King’s 5th district (Decatur, Ringgold, and Taylor). It also picks up 6 of the 12 counties in Leonard Boswell’s 3rd district (5 of those 6 counties went for McCain, so this takes some of the pressure off of Boswell). The result is a very Democratic district in southeastern Iowa that is now able to dilute Republican influence from some of the neighboring districts. Loebsack or another Democrat would have no trouble getting reelected here.

3rd District (Purple)

Obama-60.03%

McCain-39.97%

Major Cities: Carroll, Des Moines, Fort Dodge

This district retains roughly half of the counties in Leonard Boswell’s 3rd district, but also picks up Democratic counties from the 4th and 5th districts. Over half of the population in the district lives in Polk County (Des Moines). My main goal was to protect Leonard Boswell since he seems to have frequent trouble in his current district. He would be more than safe here; this district went for Obama by over 20 points, making it the most Democratic district in Iowa. If Tom Latham wanted to run against Boswell, he would first have to move to the 3rd (his Ames home is located outside of the district), and even then he would have a difficult race given the new nature of the district. Steve King’s home in Crawford County has also been moved into this district, but it would be hopeless for him to run here, given his ultraconservative profile. This district would favor most any Democrat.

4th District (Green)

Obama-50.46%

McCain-49.54%

Major Cities: Ames, Council Bluffs, Sioux City, Storm Lake

At first, I thought it would be impossible to put western Iowa into a Democratic district, but it was indeed possible. Obama only won this district by about 1%, but making it much more Democratic would have put Braley or Boswell in danger. The 4th keeps most of its current western base, but loses several western counties to the other 3 districts (including Crawford County, where Steve King lives). It gains many of the counties in Tom Latham’s current 4th district, including Dallas and Story (where Latham lives) and Fayette County (located in the current 1st dstrict). This district has much of Latham’s former territory, so he would have the best chance of winning in this district. But first he would probably have to face Steve King in a Republican primary. If the primary was divisive enough, or if King was the GOP nominee, this marginally Democratic district could be won by a moderate-to-conservative Democrat.

So while none of this will probably ever happen, I thought that it would be interesting to examine a hypothetical scenario.  So what do you all think? Comments, suggestions, ideas?

Obama picked Sonia Sotomayor to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice David Souter today, making her the third woman and first Hispanic ever nominated for the High Court.  Folks rarely vote over judicial nominations (evangelical voters aside), but she could generate a lot of ripple effects.  Already, the conventional wisdom from several pundits is that this will put Republicans in a bind – they’d be opposing history if they try to block Sotomayor’s appointment.  Yet, as SCOTUS blog points out, there are too many right-wing activists that have devoted too much money to let her slide.  Already, her comment that the high court is “where policy is made” is raising the ire of the right.

It’s also proving to be a diving issue for primaries as well; in Florida, Rubio is more likely going to oppose her while Crist’s support for her may cost him further with the base.  There will likely be more GOPers (and moderate Dems) who will feel pressure from the base to either support or oppose.  There’s also the issue of the nomination’s timing.  This is a critical session for the Democrats – healthcare and energy reform are both on an the front burner, along with backlogged executive appointments, a 2010 appropriations bill, and transportation – and the spectacle of a Supreme Court nomination battle could put a huge damper on the Democratic party’s agenda, giving incumbents less to go home and brag about for 2010.

Thoughts?  Will Sotomayor impact the 2010 elections in any way, or will she just be a blip on the screen by then?  As an aside, what do you think this will portend for the MN Senate recount (my money is on Coleman appealing to SCOTUS for sure now to keep Franken from voting her in).

Looks like Dodd’s got a primary opponent, Merrick Alpert:

http://www.myleftnutmeg.com/di…

And here’s his website:

http://merrickforachange.ngpho…

Just looking at the website and the video, I don’t see this guy as the next Ned Lamont, and frankly, I’m for Dodd all the way.  Dodd’s been a great senator in the past and he’s earned a lot of praise from the netroots, and rightfully so.  There have been many times in the past where he’s been a leader on progressive legislation, from Family Leave to FISA, and I’d hate to see him leave the Senate at this point.  I’m well aware of the AIG issue, which I think was a load of crap.  No one worked harder than Dodd (well, maybe Bernie Sanders) to get some accountability at AIG.  If you want to blame someone for that mess, look elsewhere.

That said, I understand that Connecticut voters are rather pissed.  Dodd needs to work to reconnect with his state after his failed presidential campaign.  If he is turned away in the primary, I will support the Democrat, and I hope everyone else does too, and I hope the primary goes ahead without any interference, but I still think Chris Dodd deserves to be reelected.