Tag: 2010

These are my first rankings of any set of seats for the 2010 Congressional elections. The Senate outlook for the Democrats was at first good (this was early 2009.) Then it became poor as fall hit but now the Democrats have a stronger shot in the Senate. Still, the Republicans will pick up seats but the Democrats will still have a majority in the Senate. I am expecting the Republican to pick up 5 seats and they should lose one or two so I am looking at a 3-4 seat gain for the Republican. This is more optimistic than other rankings I have seen but Republican candidates made some mistakes and/or Democrats found the right candidates. Unfortunately, with the economy starting to slump again, the climate will be less favorable to the Democrats. Still, in many races, it is the candidate and not the climate that people are thinking about when they cast their ballots. This at first looks good for the Democrats but it actually helps the Republicans in a few states such as Illinois where Obama and Democrats are popular but Republicans are waging tough races. Enough chatter about Senate races, to the rankings!

1. North Dakota OPEN (D)

Byron Dorgan (D) retired so popular Governor John Hoeven (R) is running. The race was over before it even started.

Ranking: Safe Republican

2. Arkansas Blanche Lincoln (D)

Blanche Lincoln held off the unions (which were never powerful in Arkansas,) the progressives and Bill Halter (D)  when she won the Democratic primary with the help of Bill Clinton. Although Blanche Lincoln came from behind to win, that should not happen this time. Rep John Boozmen (R) from the northwest portion of the state (where Wal Mart was started) is running. All recent polls show Boozmen with a lead about 20 points. Although this race has not been polled for a couple of weeks, all indications clearly show that Boozmen is ahead. Barring a major gaffe or a big burst of luck, Boozmen will be Arkansas’s next Senator.

Ranking: Likely Republican

3. Delaware OPEN Ted Kaufman (D)

The Democrats have had bad luck with this seat. First, Michael Castle (R), Delaware’s popular representative threw his hat in the ring and Beau Biden (D), Joe Biden’s son who was supposed to run jumped ship. Now Democrats nominated New Castle County (Wilmington) executive, Chris Coons (D) to run for Senate. It should be noted that New Castle County is a bellwether so Coons already has an advantage. Michael Castle though is a moderate and is well known throughout the state but if people get fed up with all the incumbents…Still, expect a Michael Castle win.

Ranking: Lean Republican

4. Indiana OPEN Evan Bayh (D)

Bye bye Bayh, after being a popular Governor and Senator, Bayh left open a seat the Democrats should have held (and it aint no lie.) Dan Coats (R) is a former Republican Senator and lobbyist who won the primary with only 40% of the vote. He faces Brad Ellsworth (D), the moderate and popular Congressman from southern Indiana, filled with rural swing voters. Although Ellsworth is moderate and should do well with rural voters, Dan Coats has a strong lead. Ellsworth just got out an effective ad attacking lobbyists (not explicitly mentioning the one running against him.) This is helpful but he also needs to appeal to urban voters who were key to Obama’s winning coalition in 2008.  Ellsworth is a great candidate and he definitely will make it close. Unfortunately, I think due to the Republican lean of the state and the year’s climate, Coats will win by about 5 points.

Ranking: Lean Republican

5. Florida OPEN Mel Martinez (R)

Once Crist jumped into this race, it appeared that he would win easily. Then along came Marco Rubio who started out at 4% but forced Crist to run as an independent. Many pundits including myself believed Crist would take away Republican votes but since they view him as a traitor, he did not steal many. Now he is taking away votes from Meek. I expect Crist to caucus with the Democrats because Crist has suddenly become more Democratic and has strongly advocated against more oil drilling. He participated in a hands across the sands protest against oil drilling too. Most polls show Crist with a slight lead over Rubio and I think that it will be close but Crist will win.

Ranking: Lean Independent

6. Colorado Michael Bennett (D)

Michael Bennett was the former School Superintendent for Colorado and he was appointed by Bill Ritter (D) because Ken Salazar (D) was pulled out to become Secretary of the Interior. Now Republicans Ken Buck and Jane Norton are challenging Bennett. Also, Bennett faces a challenge from Andrew Romanoff (D) who is the former speaker for Colorado’s House. Although the Republicans are not very moderate, Bennett keeps trailing them by a few points and Romanoff trails them too. Ken Buck though, the leader in the primary favors strong cuts to the Department of Education and Norton favors eliminating it. This could come back to haunt them. Most polls show Bennett winning the primary but I do not have a good feeling about this race.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

7. Missouri OPEN Christopher Bond (R)

I was debating whether I should put Ohio here but in the end, I decided that this spot belonged to Missouri. Christopher Bond, one of the dwindling group of reasonable Republicans is now retiring. A not so reasonable Republican, Roy Blunt (R) from southwest Missouri is running to replace Bond. Blunt is the former House Majority Whip under the Bush Administration. The Democrats found a good candidate in Robin Carnahan (D), a member of a strong political family and the Secretary of State. A recent Rasmussen poll shows Blunt with a 5 point lead but Rasmussen is known to be biased toward the right. The latest non Rasmussen poll was in March and it showed Blunt with a 4 point lead. Missouri has a strong rural conservative base but Carnahan has her advantages. She won by 26 points in 2010, losing only 10 counties so she proved she can win rural areas. Also, her family owns a farm so she can highlight her rural roots. This is why I believe that once Carnahan starts campaigning, the race will become very close.

Ranking: Toss Up

8. Ohio OPEN George Voinovich (R)

Voinovich is another reasonable Republican who is retiring. After a bruising primary against Jennifer Brunner (D), Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher (D) won. He is facing Rob Portman (R) who is a former congressman and official during the Bush Administration. Every poll since March that is not Rasmussen shows Fisher with a lead although most of the leads are by a few points. Fisher’s main jobs will be to tie Portman to Bush, remind people how bad Bush was (because everyone is blaming Bush’s problems on Obama) and Fisher should highlight how he will create jobs. Also, Fisher needs to step up the fundraising. Also, Portman is from southern Ohio while Fisher is from Northeast Ohio. On election night, you should expect a map similar to 2004 except Fisher may get a few Ohio river counties. I still believe that if one race leads to a recount, it will be this one.

Ranking: Toss Up

9. Illinois OPEN Roland Burris (D)

Really good candidates, especially those whose names are spelled L-I-S-A M-A-D-I-G-A-N decided not to run so we have Alexi Giannoulis (D) who is the State Treasurer. He is young but his family’s bank problems are not. Mark Kirk (R), the moderate Republican from Chicago suburbs and candidate for Senate appeared to have an advantage because of this. He still did not think that gave him a strong enough lead so he decided he could woo voters by bragging about military credentials…he forgot he did not have. Now the race is closer and I think due to the Democratic lean of the state, Giannoulis will win by a couple of points.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

10 (tie) Nevada Harry Reid (D)

The Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid will be facing Sharron Angle (R) a State Senator from Washoe County. Harry Reid is very unpopular in Nevada but neither is Sharron Angle. Her beliefs range from wanting to eliminate social security, the Department of Education, support of Scientology and that Abraham Lincoln lost all his elections but President (he lost only one election is his whole lifetime.) Also, Angle faces another problem because as of last month, Harry Reid has $12 million COH (cash on hand) and Angle has only $138,000. Recent polls show this race close because many people have not heard about Angle just yet. She is trying to hide her opinions though by saying Harry Reid cannot quote them and she seems shocked that people are monitoring everything she says. Angle…welcome to the world of campaigning. Harry Reid is still unpopular but I expect him to win by a few points. The only good tactic Angle has used is behaving callously toward oil spill and rape victims and not having a moment where she does not care about Yucca Mountain. In Nevada, you can vote for “None of these candidates” and I would not be surprised if they won.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

10 (tie). Kentucky OPEN Jim Bunning (R)

Once Bunning realized he had a poor shot at hitting a home run and winning again, he decided to bail out of the race. Rand Paul (R), the son on Ron Paul (R) is now running against Jack Conway (D). At first, it appeared that teabagger Paul would win this race until he revealed how much he hated big government. He thought that government could not prevent businesses from discriminating. Then he flip flopped and believes the U.S needs to use government spending to build a border fence. Conway is a good candidate but Kentucky is too conservative for him and this is not a good year for Democrats.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Republican.

Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? What are yours?

This post was cross posted at http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more election analysis.  

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

Roughly one month ago – can you believe how this summer is flying by? – I released a new set of U.S. Senate projections, giving Democrats a 53-47 seat edge over the GOP. Since then, we’ve had a boatload of primaries, a few more candidate scandals, and, yet, on the whole, my sentiment on Democratic strength remains about the same.

For the month of June, I’m opting to give the Dems a more narrow 52-48 hold upon the U.S. Senate. While such is hardly a cause for celebration, it’s also not a particularly catastrophic development, and, despite the closeness in tally, my suspicion is actually that the GOP’s climb to that magical 51-vote majority is in fact only getting steeper.

Why the contradiction? Well, before I delve into any specific, race-by-race analysis, let me first point out the races which have, over the course of the past month, either a) moved in ranking and/or b) flipped in favor of the other candidate.

Dem Upgrades:

CT-Sen – Lean Dem -> Likely Dem

FL-Sen – Toss-up (Rubio edge) -> Toss-up (Crist edge)

IL-Sen – Lean GOP -> Toss-up (Kirk edge)

LA-Sen – Safe GOP -> Likely GOP

NY-Sen (B) – Likely Dem -> Safe Dem

GOP Upgrades:

AZ-Sen – Likely GOP -> Safe GOP

IA-Sen – Likely GOP -> Safe GOP

IN-Sen – Toss-up (Ellsworth edge) -> Toss-up (Coats edge)

KY-Sen – Toss-up (Conway edge) -> Toss-up (Paul edge)

WI-Sen – Likely Dem -> Lean Dem

My suspicion is, while Republicans are very likely to win over a majority of so-called “toss-ups” come the fall, their odds of actually winning back the U.S. Senate are close to non-existent. I say this, because a few supposedly-vulnerable Dems – Richard Blumenthal and Kirsten Gillibrand in particular – are looking more and more unbeatable as the season rolls onward. For the GOP to claim victory, this cannot be the case. They can knock off Barbara Boxer, and that only gets them to 49. Have Marco Rubio eek out a victory, thus sweeping every single “toss-up,” and Joe Biden gets to break the 50-50 tie. After all of that, Republicans have two opportunities – in the form of Russ Feingold and Patty Murray – and boy, would that take the perfect storm.

In terms of explanation re: my aforementioned upgrades, let me do a quick run-down on each…

AZ-Sen: It strikes me as highly unlikely that J.D. Hayworth gives the boot to John McCain in this state’s upcoming GOP primary and, thus, I feel it’s prime time to move this into “safe” territory. Rodney Glassman isn’t a particularly bad Democratic candidate – against Hayworth, he could perhaps keep things somewhat competitive – but unless national Democrats can switch the overall narrative in their favor by the fall, it’s tough to see this randomly going blue.

CT-Sen: It doesn’t appear that the Vietnam hooplah over Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is sticking with Connecticut voters, and I suspect for GOP challenger Linda McMahon to have had a realistic shot at victory, she needed a far bigger bounce when that story was at its hottest. Now, the Blumenthal buzz has fizzled, and McMahon’s still trailing by about twenty points. Two factors keep me from moving this to Safe Dem: 1) Blumenthal is absolutely dreadful on the campaign stump and 2) there’s a very good chance Sen. Joe Lieberman backs McMahon. Still, this is looking like a huge stretch for Republicans.

FL-Sen: Even if Rep. Kendrick Meek survives his now-competitive primary vs. oddball businessman Jeff Greene, it’s looking awfully plausible, if not probable that Charlie Crist nets sizable support among registered Democrats come November. With Marco Rubio’s campaign feeling curiously-flat since Crist’s launch of an Independent bid, it doesn’t seem too far beyond the realm that the incumbent Governor can prevail, even in such an anti-incumbent cycle.

IA-Sen: Much like in Arizona, the Democrats have coalesced around an attractive candidate, attorney Roxanne Conlin, but there’s no reason to believe she can prevail in an environment which appears awfully cool to Democrats. Chuck Grassley isn’t the most popular guy out there, and it says something that I kept him out of “safe” territory for so long. Alas, until I see national Dems pumping money into this thing, I have to presume he is safe.

IL-Sen: With a new Public Policy Polling survey showing the Green Party candidate netting 14% in this race, it’s awfully difficult to attain a real grasp around this race. Both Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias are supremely unpopular, dogged by controversies which even trump Blumenthal’s, and with all of this lukewarm feeling, there’s speculation that third-party candidates could play a real factor. For now, I suspect Kirk can win in this particular cycle, and he’ll have to play by the Peter Fitzgerald book, used to trump Democrat Carol Moseley-Braun in the ’98 U.S. Senate race. Nonetheless, this has “toss-up” written all over it.

IN-Sen: With a sterling candidate like Brad Ellsworth, Democrats have a real shot at holding Evan Bayh’s seat, but, at least for the time being, I’m just not sensing the pro-Ellsworth excitement that’ll be necessary to prevail in a conservative-leaning state. Don’t get me wrong – Dan Coats is one very flawed candidate, and it’ll be a miracle if he can somehow connect with the Tea Party crowd. Alas, in this environment, and with the state’s conservative voting-streak, I have to give the slight (and I mean super-slight) edge to Coats.

KY-Sen: Much like Indiana, I suspect this one’s a legitimate barnburner, the GOP candidate is flawed, the Democrat is terrific, and, nonetheless, considering the state’s conservative nature, I suspect it’s simply less risky to side with the Republican. For now.

LA-Sen: As I wrote in a recent column, I think Democrat Charlie Melancon poses a real threat to incumbent Republican David Vitter, and, thus, I’m moving him up a bit in my rankings. The state’s conservative lean will continue to strain on Melancon’s chances of actually prevailing, but recent polling does show him surging quite a bit, and who knows what kind of political implications this disaster-plagued environment carries.

NY-Sen (B): This has been a decision in-the-making for quite a while now. While Kirsten Gillibrand’s re-election numbers are still a tad underwhelming, the New York GOP is so anemic and dysfunctional that it seems almost a joke to continue viewing her as vulnerable. To put it bluntly, the New York Republican Party just can’t get its shit together. All of the potential challengers – Bruce Blakeman, Joe DioGuardi, and David Malpass – are strictly third-rate material.

WI-Sen: Russ Feingold has a history of pulling out squeaker victories, and while I could just as easily say “I expect no less this time around,” the truth is, I think Feingold’s probably up in the high, comfortable single-digits. Still, the environment is just so anti-incumbent, and Wisconsin conservatives will always have it out for Feingold, an unabashed, albeit somewhat unpredictable liberal. I actually think Republicans caught a lucky break when the uber-establishment fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson opted to pass on the race. At least here, they can mount an outsider.

Please feel free to comment upon and challenge my rankings. I’m sure many, for instance, will find themselves aghast at my prediction that Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid. My full ranking run-down is, as follows…

D – 52

R – 48

Safe Dem (>20% victory) :

Hawaii – Sen. Daniel Inouye > GOP nominee (?)

Maryland – Sen. Barbara Mikulski > GOP nominee (?)

New York – Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand > GOP nominee (?)

New York – Sen. Charles Schumer > GOP nominee (?)

Oregon – Sen. Ron Wyden > law professor Jim Huffman

Vermont – Sen. Patrick Leahy > businessman Len Britton

Likely Dem (10-20% victory):

Connecticut – Attorney General Richard Blumenthal > WWE CEO Linda McMahon

Lean Dem (5-10% victory):

Washington – Sen. Patty Murray > fmr. State Sen. Dino Rossi

Wisconsin – Sen. Russ Feingold > GOP nominee (?)

Toss-up:

California – Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) > fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R)

Colorado – fmr. Lt. Gov. Jane Norton or District Attorney Ken Buck (R) > Sen. Michael Bennett or fmr. House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D)

Florida – Gov. Charlie Crist (I) > fmr. House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) or Rep. Kendrick Meek (D)

Illinois – Rep. Mark Kirk (R) > State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D)

Indiana – fmr. Sen. Dan Coats (R) > Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D)

Kentucky – eye surgeon Rand Paul (R) > Attorney General Jack Conway (D)

Missouri – Rep. Roy Blunt (R) > Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D)

Nevada – fmr. Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R) > Sen. Harry Reid (D)

Ohio – fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) > Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D)

Pennsylvania – fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) > Rep. Joe Sestak (D)

Lean GOP (5-10% victory):

New Hampshire – Attorney General Kelly Ayotte > Rep. Paul Hodes

North Carolina – Sen. Richard Burr > fmr. State Sen. Cal Cunningham or Secretary of State Elaine Marshall

Likely GOP (10-20% victory):

Arkansas – Rep. John Boozman > Sen. Blanche Lincoln

Delaware – Rep. Mike Castle > New Castle County Executive Chris Coons

Louisiana – Sen. David Vitter > Rep. Charlie Melancon

Safe GOP (>20% victory):

Alabama – Sen. Richard Shelby > Attorney William Barnes

Alaska – Sen. Lisa Murkowski > Dem nominee (?)

Arizona – radio host JD Hayworth or Sen. John McCain > businessman Rodney Glassman

Georgia – Sen. Johnny Isakson > Dem nominee (?)

Idaho – Sen. Mike Crapo > businessman Tom Sullivan

Iowa – Sen. Chuck Grassley > Attorney Roxanne Conlin

Kansas – Rep. Jerry Moran or Rep. Todd Tihart > Dem nominee (?)

North Dakota – Gov. John Hoeven > State Sen. Tracy Potter

Oklahoma – Sen. Tom Coburn > Dem nominee (?)

South Carolina – Sen. Jim DeMint > military veteran Alvin Greene

South Dakota – Sen. John Thune > unopposed

Utah – businessman Tim Bridgewater or Attorney Mike Lee > businessman Sam Granato

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

In my latest U.S. Senate projections, posted a few weeks back, I opted to move the Louisiana race, between Republican incumbent David Vitter and Democratic challenger Charlie Melancon, from “Lean GOP” to “Safe GOP.” In fact, it was one of five particular races I gave special attention, given its notable shift in ranking amid my projections.  I moved this race further into red territory, given a) most polling conducted on the match-up has shown Vitter with upwards of a 30 point lead, b) Melancon’s campaign hadn’t ignited much excitement, and c) it appeared as though Louisiana voters had forgotten about or outright forgiven Vitter for the infidelity controversy that plagued his Senate tenure a few years back.

It’s now more than a week into June, and I feel this race deserves a second look.

Why? Because, while Sen. Vitter is doing incredibly well, given the shaky press coverage he’s garnered in recent years, the recent BP disaster has finally given Congressman Melancon, whose district has perhaps been most hard-hit during the crisis, his moment in the sun. And, what a tremendous job he has done.

While both Vitter and fellow Sen. Mary Landrieu deserve kudos for their PR handling of the BP crisis, it has been Melancon who really struck a chord, with both Louisiana’s residents and the nation, on this issue. He gave heartwrenching testimony to Congress regarding the oil spill’s impact upon the people of his district, and he’s hit the cable news circuit, establishing himself as one of the most affective communicators on the issue. I must admit, I’ve been quite moved by Melancon’s work in the past weeks, and I will be rooting for him for the remainder of this political season.

Of course, this begs the question – can Charlie Melancon really defeat David Vitter? Is this still a “Safe GOP” race?

Truthfully, at this point, it’s difficult to tell. LA-Sen has been a gravely-underpolled race, with only the conservative-leaning Rasmussen bothering to conduct polling on it this year. The last time a non-partisan outlet polled it was all the way back in July, 2009 (!), while Public Policy Polling showed Vitter with a 12 point lead. Which, for the record, only constitutes a “Likely GOP” ranking in my methodology, not “Safe GOP.” Rasmussen, for the record, found Vitter with a 24 point lead in both February and March, before giving up on polling the state.

With no help from the pollsters, it’s difficult to get a solid grasp on this race. In all likelihood, Vitter is still ahead, and at least by double-digits. 24 points, though? That’s probably a stretch. A 24-point lead in Louisiana means Vitter trimming a quarter of Democrats from Melancon, and that’s awfully unlikely.

Indeed, the potential good news for Melancon is that Democrats make up a plurality – about 40 percent – of the Louisiana electorate. The bad news? About a third to a fourth of those Democrats are conservative ones, “Blue Dogs” if you will. And the Republicans? They’re some of the most conservative in the country. The non-affiliated voters, who make up a fifth of the electorate, are also right-leaning.

If I had to take a stab on the outcome of this race, I imagine it looks something like…

Democrat – 40%

GOP – 38%

Independent – 22%

Melancon – 85%/10%/46% = 48%

Vitter – 15%/90%/54% = 52%

Which, would of course make this a bonifide toss-up. Despite my voter model, I suppose Vitter is perhaps ahead by more. If only Rasmussen would release its internal numbers, which it, unfortunately, does not. For the time being, I’ll give the benefit of doubt to Sen. Vitter, but Melancon could be on the rise.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

In my latest U.S. Senate projections, posted a few weeks back, I noted my belief that, despite recent polls showing otherwise, I believe Republican Marco Rubio will claim victory over Independent Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek in the upcoming Florida Senate race. Though most polling has shown Crist with a modest lead over Rubio and Meek trailing way behind, I’ve been thinking, for several reasons, such may prove short lived.

For one, the bulk of Crist’s impressive support in these polls has stemmed from registered Democrats. Though the centrist Governor could surely win over conservaDems and even many moderate Democrats come the Fall, my suspicion is Meek, a progressive Congressman, will ultimately clean up among the liberals who make up a majority of the Dem electorate. Per CNN polling from 2008, self-identified liberals make up 51% of Florida Dems, with 37% moderates and 13% conservatives. If Meek can hold liberals and win over half of the moderate vote, he’ll defeat Crist 3-to-1 among the total Dem vote, forcing Crist to turn elsewhere in getting the necessary votes.

That “elsewhere” may not necessarily be the party Crist just abandoned.

If you believe the polls, Rubio, the fmr. Florida House Speaker, has already shored-up the vast majority of the GOP vote, leaving Crist with about 20% of his old party’s base. For Crist to pull off a win, this probably cannot be the case. Keep in mind, in Sen. Joe Lieberman’s Independent bid for re-election in 2006, he held onto roughly a third of the Democratic vote, stemmed largely from moderate and conservative Dems. Per that same 2008 CNN primary poll, 61% of Florida Republicans are self-identified conservatives, with 28% moderates and 11% liberals. For a Crist victory, I suspect he’ll need to clean-up among both liberals and moderates, the latter of which could be difficult as the Governor moves toward the left in his quest to win over Democrats.

Unsurprisingly, the most key factor of all for Crist will be the Independent vote, which makes up about 30% of the Florida electorate and, typically, decides statewide elections here. Polls show Crist with a decent lead among this group and, should he hold onto this lead, he’ll surely have a fighting chance at triumph. The question is, can the Governor win over conservative non-affiliates who might find Rubio attractive too? Or, likewise, liberal Indies who are intrigued by Meek? It’s a fine ideological balance Crist must somehow pull off. Move to the center-left? Maintain that slightly right-of-center stance he established in his Gubernatorial tenture?

Whatever the case, I currently think Rubio, one of the hottest GOP commodities on the scene, will eek out a win.

My current thoughts on an electoral breakdown here are, as follows…

Republican – 37%

Democrat – 35%

Independent – 28%

Crist – 15%/35%/45% = 31%

Meek – 0%/60%/15% = 25%

Rubio – 85%/5%/40% = 44%

Crist’s dream scenario probably mirrors something more along the lines of…

Democrat – 35%

Republican – 35%

Independent – 30%

Crist – 65%/25%/55% = 49%

Meek – 30%/0%/10% = 14%

Rubio – 5%/75%/35% = 37%

As you see, Meek and Rubio are relatively stable in their margins, at ranges of 14%-25% and 37-44%, respectively. In all likelihood, neither could win in a two-way match. Crist, on the other hand, has very erratic numbers, with a range of 31%-49%. Such guarantees at least second-place finish, but also means Crist requires 37% to even remain competitive against Rubio.

Such a model assumes a) Meek implodes among registered Dems (much like Republican Alan Schlesinger in that ’06 CT race), b) Crist wins over moderate Republicans, and c) Crist overwhelmingly wins among non-affilated voters. For the time being, I just don’t see Meek as anemic as Schlesinger, and I suspect, amid such an anti-incumbent environment, moderate GOP-ers may prefer Rubio over the sitting Governor. I imagine Crist is ahead among non-affiliateds, but not by enough to run up the necessary margins.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

Cross posted at http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

On May 18th, everyone called that day the Super Tuesday for primaries. They apparently were not thinking about this Tuesday, June 8th. Today, about a dozen states are holding their primaries. Some states like Virginia only have primaries for House and State legislature while states like Arkansas have very contested Senatorial primaries. The state I will examine is my home state, California. Today, we have important primaries for many of our statewide seats. California had the potential to have even more. First, Jerry Brown sealed the Democratic nomination once Newsom dropped out of the primary although polls showed he did not have a strong chance. Although no one has dropped out of the Gubernatorial and Senatorial Republican primaries, Fiorina and Whitman are leading by more than 20 points in most polls. In March, Whitman was leading by 40 points and in early May, her lead was in the single digits. She came ahead again by writing herself another check so she has spent the most money of any candidate ever. Fiorina earned her money after running Hewlett Packard to the ground and she is now using that to defeat Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore. I see Chuck DeVore signs all around but he is not winning, he just has very enthusiastic supporters. The races I will examine are both Attorney General Primaries, the Lieutenant Governor priamry and Prop 16. I will discuss what to watch in each of them and here are the three most important factors: turnout, turnout and turnout.

For the Democrats Attorney General primary, the candidates are San Francisco Attorney Kamala Harris, Facebook’s former privacy officer Chris Kelly, Rocky Delgadillo from the Los Angeles area, Pedro Nava from Santa Barbara and Ted Lieu. The three main candidates are Harris, Kelly and Delgadillo although polls show the race is between Kelly and Harris. A recent Survey USA poll showed Harris leading by 6 points. For Harris to win, she needs to win big margins in the Bay Area. Kelly should win big in the Los Angeles area although Harris received the LA Times endorsement. Delgadillo though might steal votes from Kelly, especially among Hispanics. The Survey USA poll has Kelly and Delgadillo tied in the Inland Empire. While watching the returns, ask yourself these questions: is Harris getting the margins she needs in the Bay Area and the Central Valley? Is Kelly winning in the Inland Empire or is he tied with Delgadillo? Most importantly, is Kelly crushing Harris in Los Angeles or is it a three way tie?

In the Republican Attorney General primary, Steve Cooley from Los Angeles goes against Orange County State Senator Tom Harman and teabagger John Eastman. Cooley is the more moderate candidate and he is establishment backed. This resembles many previous primaries this year where most people voted for teabaggers. The problem was that the teabagger divided the vote, allowing the establishment candidate to receive the nomination. This may happen in this election because a recent Survey USA poll showed Cooley leading by five points. Although Cooley is popular in the Los Angeles area, Eastman should win Orange County because he is from there. The Survey USA poll shows Harman leading in Northern California even though he has no strong connection to the area. Remember to ask yourself these questions while the results arrive: how high is the Los Angeles area turnout? Is Harman actually winning in the Bay Area and the Central Valley or is Eastman splitting the vote with him? Most importantly, who is winning the Inland Empire?

The Lieutenant Governor primaries are less active. For the Republicans, moderate Abel Maldonado is leading against Nevada County conservative Sam Aanestad. Maldonado has his Central Valley state Senate open with a close race brewing. This is another blog post for another time though. The Democrats have a more interesting race. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom faces Janice Hahn, the sister of a former Los Angeles mayor. Although the Hahn family is popular in LA, the LA Times endorsed Newsom. Although Newsom should probably win by getting high turnout from the Bay Area, Hahn may get close if there is low turnout. Newsom needs to win big margins in Northern California while keeping down her margins in Southern California. Although the state’s main political divide is Coastal vs. Inland California in the general election now, the primaries still have the NorCal vs. SoCal divide. While the results come in, ask yourself these questions: Is Hahn winning LA County by more than 30 points? Is Newsom winning the Bay Area by more than 30 points? If Hahn is winning the Inland Empire, is she winning it in the double digits? Most importantly, how high is the Bay Area turnout?

Prop 16 is the last race I will examine but it is very intriguing. PG&E put Prop 16 on the ballot and they are spending $46 million so it will pass. The ads claim it is about the taxpayers right to vote but they “forget” to mention it has to be 2/3 of the taxpayers. If passed, PG&E has its competition eliminated and it can raise electricity rates. If a county does not like that and wants to start a new electricity provider, it will not be able to. PG&E will start spending to prevent 2/3 of the people from supporting a new one and PG&E should get at least 1/3 of the voters to support PG&E. A Survey USA poll had the No side leading by 4 points. The poll also showed that minorities are split on their opinions of Prop 16 as well as LA County. Also, a good number of Republicans are against Prop 16 but many Democrats are for it. I would expect San Diego and Orange Counties to go strongly for Prop 16 because many people there care about taxes. The poll also showed the Central Valley mostly opposing Prop 16. You should remember these questions to ask yourself while the results come in: is the Central Valley actually opposing Prop 16? How high is the margin and the turnout in the Bay Area? Most importantly, which side is winning LA County?

Want more election analysis? Visit me at http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

Cross-posted at Politics and Other Random Topics

(Notes: My senate rankings can be found here and I recently updated my own rankings for the Senate on my website, so that's what I'm talking about with the changes to the senate rankings)

It's funny, in some ways this has been a bad few weeks for Democrats politically (Dino Rossi's entrance in Washington State against Patty Murray and the thing with Blumenthal in Connecticut) but at the same time, the Senate picture actually looks better for the Democrats.

My most recent changes are to move Connecticut back to Likely Democratic from Leans Democratic and to move Nevada from Leans Republican to Toss-up.

The Connecticut thing should be pretty obvious, the New York Times screwed up pretty bad on their several stories regarding Blumenthal (plus Linda McMahon's idiotic bragging about giving the Times the story basically killed any chance of it seriously damaging Blumenthal).

Nevada's an interesting one, because Harry Reid hasn't magically become more popular than he was, but his polling against all three challengers has definitely improved. While I had been classifying the race as Leans Republican for my purposes, I'd always believed that Harry Reid was the incumbent who was most likely to come back from the grave and win simply because his opposition is so weak and his war-chest is really nothing to sneeze at ($9 million Cash on Hand, compared to his opposition who have a combined Cash on Hand amount of about $400,000, with that coming largely from Lowden with $200,000).

Now then, with the official caveat that the election is still several months away and there are any number of things that could happen in the meantime, let me give you my first preliminary prediction for the Senate races:

Democrats take the following seats from the Republicans: Ohio, Missouri, and Florida (I think Charlie Crist wins and that he caucuses with the Democrats, thus I consider it a Democratic gain).

Republicans take the following seats from the Democrats: North Dakota, Delaware, and Arkansas.

Honestly, I think for all the hoopla about Democrats getting routed in the fall, there's a very good chance that the Democrats break even for Senate races (to get this out of the way, I believe that Democrats will hold Indiana, Colorado, and Illinois despite polling to the contrary).

The best-case scenario for the Democrats right now is probably keeping their seat losses limited to North Dakota and Delaware (some Democrats are holding out hope that New Castle County Executive Chris Coons can pull off an upset, but I doubt it) and somehow hold Arkansas (frankly, Arkansas is bordering on being a lost cause as well), and then taking Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire, Kentucky, North Carolina (this one's definitely a sleeper for the Democrats), and maybe catch Chuck Grassley off-guard in Iowa (to be fair, this is a bit of a stretch, as Grassley, despite showing some slight weakness, is still a pretty damn popular incumbent who isn't likely to lose). This scenario gives Democrats somewhere between 61 and 63 seats with the Republicans at between 39 and 37 seats.

Conversely, the best-case scenario for the Republicans is to hold onto to their competitive open seats (Ohio, New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Missouri), protect North Carolina (which is probably going to be pretty easy if the Republicans hold all of their open seats), take all of the Democratic open seats (save for Connecticut), knock off Reid, Lincoln (or the open seat, depending on what happens in the run-off), and Bennet, and then beat Barbara Boxer in California (frankly, despite their candidate recruitment coup, I don't think the Republicans really have a prayer of defeating Patty Murray). This scenario gives the Republicans 50 seats (which basically means that Democrats will maintain control of the Senate unless Lieberman decides to screw the Democrats and switch, which I wouldn't put past him).

My current prediction might seem a bit optimistic for some, but it's still worth mentioning that even now, it's still reasonably possible that the Democrats can break even or even gain a seat or two in these senate elections.

(To reiterate, this is a preliminary prediction of the status of a series of elections that won't take place for another five months, so these predictions are very much subject to change).

Last Thursday, just one day after New York Republicans selected Rick Lazio as their official nominee for Governor, the state’s GOP convention produced some mixed results in the U.S. Senate race to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand. Unable to settle upon one candidate, both Bruce Blakeman and David Malpass will compete in a September primary for the GOP nomination. Joe DioGuardi, the third candidate, failed to garner the support necessary to make that primary ballot.

There’s only one problem. DioGuardi, no matter what happens on the GOP side, already has a guaranteed slot on the November ballot. Huh?

New York’s Conservative Party, the right-wing gang originally designed to create hell for liberal Republican Nelson Rockefellar way back when, has already given DioGuardi its ballot line for the Senate race, provoking all sorts of vote-splitting horrors for Republicans statewide.

After all, just rewind back to that fascinating race up in NY-23, where liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava, once considered the overwhelming front-runner, was bombarded by the Conservative nominee, uber-right-winger Doug Hoffman. Hoffman, a political arsonist at its worst, damaged Scozzafava so horribly among the district’s Republicans that she dropped out of the race at the 11-o-clock hour. For Hoffman, however, it was an exercise to nowhere, as Democrat Bill Owens used the obnoxious Hoffman/Scozzafava showdown to his benefit, claiming victory as the one normal, likable candidate in the race.

For New York Republicans, such a scenario on a statewide level would be the nightmare from hell.

My suspicion is, however, DioGuardi, the fmr. Westchester Congressman, doesn’t have the money or excitement to make a real dent in this race. He’s so dull and washed-up, he makes Rick Lazio look fun, and I think most conservatives will make a valiant effort to rally around either Blakeman, the fmr. Port Authority Commissioner, or Malpass, the fmr. Reagan advisor. Both men are moderate Republicans, but not quite as liberal or RINO-y as Scozzafava, plus many state GOP-ers are salivating at the notion that Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand might be a bit vulnerable when it comes to the general.

I do think this race is in the Likely Dem column, perhaps even Safe Dem, with Gillibrand consolidating the vast majority of Democrats and probably performing quite well among Independents too. Even if she doesn’t succeed among the latter, the overwhelming Dem registration should keep her in safe territory. I imagine we’re looking at a voter model which mirrors something like…

Democrat – 46%

Republican – 27%

Independent – 27%

Gillibrand – 93%/7%/55% = 60%

Blakeman/Malpass – 7%/83%/40% = 36%

DioGuardi – 0%/10%/5% = 4%

For Republicans, I suspect a best-case-scenario “dream model” would look something like…

Democrat – 45%

Republican – 30%

Independent – 25%

Gillibrand – 85%/3%/43% = 50%

Blakeman/Malpass – 15%/93%/55% = 48%

DioGuardi – 0%/4%/2% = 2%

In this (highly-unlikely) scenario, Gillibrand bleeds conservative Dems and many moderate Independents to the GOP ticket, while DioGuardi implodes, failing to gain any real traction among the far-right who might be weary about Blakeman or Malpass. Even so, Gillibrand still eeks out a win.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

Memo to U.S. politicians: 2010 is not evidently not the best year to be a party-switcher.

Yesterday, Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy, the Democrat-turned-Republican, who switched parties in the hopes of taking on Democrat Andrew Cuomo in the upcoming New York Guberntorial race, tanked at the state’s GOP convention. Levy’s support was so thin, he failed to secure a spot on the party’s primary ballot, ensuring fmr. Rep. Rick Lazio will be the official GOP nominee to challenge Cuomo.

Yes, THAT Rick Lazio.

The fmr. Long Island Congressman, who scored fifteen minutes of national fame a decade ago in the 2000 U.S. Senate race against Hillary Rodham Clinton, has returned for another statewide beating. Lazio became the subject of political notoriety for his debate performance against Clinton, in which he abandoned his debate podium and demanded, face-to-face, that the fmr. First Lady sign a pledge, aiming to ban soft money in political campaigns. Meant to strike a chord with Independent voters, who’d been weary of Clinton’s political ambitions, the move instead solidified Clinton’s support among female voters, who saw Lazio’s move as positively cringe-worthy.

A toss-up race quickly became Clinton’s to lose, and she did claim a strong, double-digit victory, sending Lazio forever into the dark, murky shadows of failed New York politicos. Or, so we thought.

Lazio’s bid against the sitting Attorney General is, to put it mildly, the mother of all long-shots. After all, Cuomo’s actually quite popular among even registered Republicans, and conservatives are raving over his policy positions, not too unlike those of Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s. Plus, one has to consider why Steve Levy gave this race a shot in the first place. Lazio, while respected among the state’s conservative circles, is generally looked upon as a washed-up has-been, not to mention a personality who’s hardly of the most telegenic or exciting kind. Levy, despite his failings, at least had a sort of hammy, humorous demeanor which may have paid off come the face-to-face debates with Cuomo.

Alas, the GOP has sided with Lazio, and I must say, this race looks like a complete blow-out to me. How I currently see it playing out…

Democrat – 47%

Independent – 28%

Republican – 25%

Cuomo – 97%/70%/35% = 75%

Lazio – 3%/30%/65% = 25%

Such a race would even best the stellar showing of Elliot Spitzer in his 2006 bid against John Faso, which was a 69%-29% victory. Now, let’s pretend, for a moment, that Lazio actually runs a solid campaign, while Cuomo’s is surprisingly underwhelming. (For the record, I highly doubt this will be the case.) Presuming such, I suspect a best-case-scenario for Lazio looks something like…

Democrat – 44%

Republican – 30%

Independent – 26%

Cuomo – 93%/20%/65% = 64%

Lazio – 7%/80%/35% = 36%

This margin roughly mirrors that of the 2008 Presidential race. That is, the Republican wins a decent majority of GOP-ers and self-described “conservatives,” but “moderates” still flock to the Democrat, and the Dem base is still basically shored-up. No matter what, I can’t imagine Cuomo not winning about two-to-one over Lazio, especially given the Democrat’s aggressive willingness to work across-the-aisle. Lazio, on the flip side, will probably run a very anti-Democrat campaign, and try to win over the state on a platform of conservativism. Of course, one cannot win statewide in New York by doing this.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

A week in advance of the California GOP Primary to replace Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, there’s some new hooplah invading the blogosphere over a stunning new poll on the race. The poll, commissioned by the Los Angeles Times, shows that while fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is leading the pack to win the nomination, she is performing an entire 13 points worse than fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell against Boxer.

This development has fired-up both the Campbell and Fiorina camps, as Campbell touts the poll as the basis for an electability argument – he can beat Boxer while Fiorina cannot – while Fiorina is rightfully pointing to Campbell’s two failed statewide runs from the past, not to mention the fmr. Congressman’s inability to compete in the state’s Gubernatorial race, which he’d been contesting prior to the Senate run.

Most of my fellow pundits appear to be siding with Campbell’s argument, that a moderate GOP-er can compete with the liberal Boxer, while a conservative like Fiorina, who also happened to be fired from her tenure at HP, probably cannot.

I respectfully disagree with this assertion. I happen to think Fiorina, not Campbell (nor Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, the third candidate in the primary), is actually the strongest candidate to take on the incumbent Boxer. While my colleagues are correct about Campbell’s more centrist record, I believe the fmr. Congressman has two serious electoral problems that Fiorina does not.

For one, Fiorina has the ability to self-fund her campaign, relieving national Republicans from having to pump funds into the most expansive and expensive state in the country. Campbell, who has hardly been a firecracker on the fundraising trail, would need outside support to fund his campaign. Also, and perhaps even more importantly, is the issue of Republican turn-out. Campbell, who is detested by the Tea Party crowd, could face problems in GOTV with his party’s base. While he may have the ability to peel off some conservative Democrats and moderate Independents who wouldn’t take too kindly to Fiorina, if Campbell cannot turn-out the GOP base as well, he absolutely cannot prevail.

Fiorina, on the flip side, is respected among self-described conservatives and even with the Tea Party crowd. Her admiration from the latter has forced the even more conservative DeVore into a distant third. However, I think the fmr. CEO does have the ability to reach out to some moderates and score the necessary numbers among non-affilateds to take down Boxer. Her tenure at HP will surely draw fire from the Boxer camp, and she is prone to making the occasional gaffe.

Alas, if Republicans really want to fulfill their dream of taking out Barbara Boxer, it’s Carly Fiorina, not Tom Campbell, who’s their most golden option.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

Last January, I asserted that, despite President Obama’s floundering approval rating and even stronger discontent with Congressional Democrats, political analysts were overestimating the Republican Party’s hand in re-taking control of the U.S. Senate. I projected Democrats would lose only two seats, bringing them to 58-42 control over the body. This, of course, was prior to Sen. Scott Brown’s stunning upset over Attorney General Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts special election; a win which robbed Democrats of their Senate super majority. My suspicion was, while Democrats were hardly in the best of shape, the GOP just wasn’t fielding strong-enough candidates to actually defeat some of these fading Dem incumbents.

That is no longer the case.

While I continue to believe Republicans don’t have the candidates to re-take the Senate, I do suspect they have the strength to knock off more than just one or two incumbents. President Obama’s approval is below 50% and Harry Reid’s health care reform bill is still unpopular, months after its passage. Though I don’t believe November will be a catastrophic month for Democrats, I do think they’re in for a modest thumping, and thus, I am now projecting a Democratic hold of the Senate by a margin of only 53-47.

To explain my thinking in a more detailed fashion, it’s necessary to delve into a few specific races which have evolved in the past months. After all, what is causing much of the general ineptness among Democrats is not necessarily Obama-related, but rather stemmed from local problems regarding the candidates themselves.

Here are the five races which have most changed in ranking since my projections back in January:

California – Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) vs. fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R)

January projection: Likely Dem

Current projection: Toss-up

First off, with all due respect to my Tea Party readers, Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who typically polls double-digits behind his better-known GOP challengers, doesn’t have the slightest chance at winning the Republican nomination; hence, I’ve left him from the match-up. Even in January, Boxer looked a bit vulnerable, but nearly all polling ever since has shown a strikingly-competitive race, whether it’s against the centrist Campbell or outsider Fiorina. Boxer gets the leg-up, if solely on the basis of the state’s overwhelming Dem registration, but if Boxer starts bleeding moderate Independents and conservative Democrats, she’s in a whole heap of trouble. Plus, should the GOP nominate Fiorina, they’ve got a candidate with the ability to self-fund, hence relieving national Republicans of pumping funds into a state as expansive and expensive as California.

Delaware – Rep. Mike Castle (R) vs. New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D)

January projection: Toss-up

Current projection: Likely GOP

Just a few months back, political analysts were salivating over what looked to be one of the hottest midterm races of 2010: the popular GOP Congressman Mike Castle vs. the equally-popular Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden. Alas, Biden stunned political junkies and Delaware Democrats alike when he opted to pass on the race, all but assuring Castle a huge pick-up in a hugely-Democratic state. State Dems settled on the lesser-known Chris Coons for the nomination. On paper, Coons may seem to have an advantage with the state’s massive Democratic registration, but Castle is no ordinary GOP-er; he’s a moderate figure, beloved statewide by figures on both the left and right. Castle could surely run up a 30-35% score among members of Coons’ party, especially since the lack of a substantive primary challenge has allowed the Republican to remain in his centrist position.

Indiana – Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. fmr. Sen. Dan Coats (R)

January projection: Likely Dem

Current projection: Toss-up

After Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh dropped the mother of all bombshells with his decision not to run for re-election, Republicans quickly began to celebrate over the likelihood of picking up this conservative-leaning state. For my money, however, such a party was premature. Democrats are fielding a strong, moderate candidate here in Ellsworth, while Republicans have a less exciting recruit in fmr. Sen. Coats, who barely squeaked by in the state’s recent GOP primary. The Tea Party crowd isn’t especially keen on the uber-establishment Coats, and if they stay home, Ellsworth squeaks out a victory.

Kentucky – Attorney General Jack Conway (D) vs. eye surgeon Rand Paul (R)

January projection: Likely GOP

Current projection: Toss-up

Here’s one of the very few, if perhaps only, cases where a Democrat could pick up a GOP-held Senate seat. Though Paul practically destroyed his better-known, establishment-supported opponent in the recent Kentucky GOP primary, he’s since made a number of controversial statements, among them ones regarding the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and President Obama’s handling of the BP crisis, which all but assure Paul won’t be walking away handily in this overwhelming-conservative state. Conway is a very strong recruit for the Dems – stronger than his primary opponent, ’04 nominee Dan Mongiardo – and should perform well among Independents who don’t aspire to the Tea Party movement. For now, edge to Conway.

Louisiana – Sen. David Vitter (R) vs. Rep. Charlie Melancon (D)

January projection: Lean GOP

Current projection: Safe GOP

For about fifteen minutes, national Dems thought they’d scored a major recruit in Melancon, a relatively-popular and well-known Democratic Congressman, to compete against the seemingly-vulnerable Sen. Vitter, once embroiled in a hot infidelity scandal. Alas, recent polling has shown Vitter all but trouncing Melancon, safely removing this seat from potential Dem pick-up territory. Melancon can run as centrist and appealing a campaign as he wants, but it looks like Louisiana folks have forgiven their incumbent Senator.

Here is my complete run-down of each upcoming Senate race. In most of the “Safe Dem” and “Safe GOP” races, there are no candidates listed for the losing party. In some cases, this is because no candidates have been fielded for the nomination, and in others, there are several contenders who have about as much name recognition as me.

Safe Dem (>20% victory) :

Hawaii – Sen. Daniel Inouye > GOP nominee (?)

Maryland – Sen. Barbara Mikulski > GOP nominee (?)

New York – Sen. Charles Schumer > GOP nominee (?)

Oregon – Sen. Ron Wyden > GOP nominee (?)

Vermont – Sen. Patrick Leahy > GOP nominee (?)

Likely Dem (10-20% victory):

New York – Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand > GOP nominee (?)

Wisconsin – Sen. Russ Feingold > GOP nominee (?)

Lean Dem (5-10% victory):

Connecticut – Attorney General Richard Blumenthal > WWE CEO Linda McMahon

Washington – Sen. Patty Murray > fmr. State Sen. Dino Rossi

Toss-up:

California – Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) > fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell or fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R)

Colorado – fmr. Lt. Gov. Jane Norton or District Attorney Ken Weld (R) > Sen. Michael Bennett or fmr. House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D)

Florida – fmr. House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) > Gov. Charlie Crist (I) or Rep. Kendrick Meek (D)

Indiana – Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) > fmr. Sen. Dan Coats (R)

Kentucky – Attorney General Jack Conway (D) > eye surgeon Rand Paul (R)

Missouri – Rep. Roy Blunt (R) > Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D)

Nevada – Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, State GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden, or Attorney Danny Tarkanian (R) > Sen. Harry Reid (D)

Ohio – fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) > Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D)

Pennsylvania – fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) > Rep. Joe Sestak (D)

Lean GOP (5-10% victory):

Illinois – Rep. Mark Kirk > State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias

New Hampshire – Attorney General Kelly Ayotte > Rep. Paul Hodes

North Carolina – Sen. Richard Burr > fmr. State Sen. Cal Cunningham or Secretary of State Elaine Marshall

Likely GOP (10-20% victory):

Arkansas – fmr. Rep. John Boozman > Sen. Blanche Lincoln or Lt. Gov. Bill Halter

Arizona – radio host JD Hayworth or Sen. John McCain > businessman Rodney Glassman

Delaware – Rep. Mike Castle > New Haven County Executive Chris Coons

Iowa – Sen. Chuck Grassley > Attorney Roxanne Conlin

Safe GOP (>20% victory):

Alabama – Sen. Richard Shelby > Dem nominee (?)

Alaska – Sen. Lisa Murkowski > Dem nominee (?)

Georgia – Sen. Johnny Isakson > Dem nominee (?)

Idaho – Sen. Mike Crapo > Dem nominee (?)

Louisiana – Sen. David Vitter > Rep. Charlie Melancon

Kansas – Rep. Jerry Moran or Rep. Todd Tihart > Dem nominee (?)

North Dakota – Gov. John Hoeven > Dem nominee (?)

Oklahoma – Sen. Tom Coburn > Dem nominee (?)

South Carolina – Sen. Jim DeMint > Dem nominee (?)

South Dakota – Sen. John Thune > Dem nominee (?)

Utah – businessman Tim Bridgewater or Attorney Mike Lee > Dem nominee (?)

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