Swing State Project

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (11/19-21, North Carolina voters, no trendlines):

Bev Perdue (D-inc): 37

Pat McCrory (R): 49

Undecided: 14

Bev Perdue (D-inc): 40

Tom Fetzer (R): 42

Undecided: 19

(MoE: 4.3%)

Bev Perdue nosed beat former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory two years ago by a little over 3%. Now, two solid years into the shittiest economy in the better part of a century, Perdue’s job approval sucks hard (33-49) and McCrory is looking good. I think it’s pretty safe to say Perdue would have been blown out of the water had she been up for re-election this year – obviously the million-dollar question is whether she can recover before Nov. 2012. I don’t feel too good about that prospect.

Pat McCrory (R): 37

Tom Fetzer (R): 12

Virginia Foxx (R): 11

Sue Myrick (R): 6

Fred Smith (R): 4

Cherie Berry (R): 3

Patrick McHenry (R): 3

Phil Berger (R): 2

Someone else/undecided: 22

(MoE: 4.9%)

McCrory is also looking pretty good in a hypothetical GOP primary (PDF), with former Raleigh mayor Tom Fetzer and batshit crazy Rep. Virginia Foxx way behind in the low teens. But as PPP suggests, McCrory may not even face a challenge for the Republican nod.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (11/29-12/1, Massachusetts voters, no trendlines):

Mike Capuano (D): 36

Scott Brown (R-inc): 52

Undecided: 12

Stephen Lynch (D): 30

Scott Brown (R-inc): 49

Undecided: 20

Ed Markey (D): 39

Scott Brown (R-inc): 49

Undecided: 13

Vicki Kennedy (D): 41

Scott Brown (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 11

Deval Patrick (D): 42

Scott Brown (R-inc): 49

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4.4%)

PPP’s first look at 2012 in Massachusetts shows that Democrats who’ve been treating this like an easy pickup are in for a rude awakening, with Scott Brown leading a spate of five Dems by margins ranging from 7 to 16. Some of these prospective Dem candidates can point to the problem of being little-known outside their House districts at this point (Mike Capuano is 47% unknown at 26/27, Stephen Lynch is 50% unknown at 23/26), but even the ones with a statewide profile (Deval Patrick and Vicki Kennedy) still trail Brown.

Despite the overall very-blue hue of Massachusetts, Brown seems able to hold his own through a mix of personal likeability (53/29 approval) and ideological positioning (53% say he’s just right, while 33% too conservative, while voters say, regarding the whole GOP, that it’s 52% too conservative and 32% just right). These numbers might change a bit once a) there’s a defined Democratic candidate getting all of the attention, and b) said candidate calls attention to some of Brown’s not-so-moderate moments, like his unemployment benefits blocking today. (Another consideration: the state’s Democratic city machines, which seemed to slumber through the special election, will be working in full effect in a presidential year.) However, with nearly 50% of the vote today, Brown’s starting in a strong position for now.

As for the possibility of just-re-elected Deval Patrick getting in, that seems like kind of an odd throw-in by PPP, but don’t totally discount it. While he’s publicly saying he’s not interested (repeating that today, in fact), he says he’s “staying involved” in the race. There are reports that he’s working back channels about that race, though perhaps more so about trying to facilitate a non-brutal Dem primary.

• AK-Sen: You might recall that yesterday the state of Alaska asked to intervene in Joe Miller’s state-court case disputing the Senatorial election, demanding an expedited result. Now the judge is allowing Lisa Murkowski herself to intervene in the case as well; she says the state wouldn’t adequately represent her interests, and she’s still trying to get an additional 2,000 ballots out there (that weren’t counted for her) counted for her as icing on the cake.

• FL-Sen: He isn’t even in the House yet, but there’s growing buzz for Daniel Webster for the 2012 Senate race, as a possible opponent to Bill Nelson. Of course, as far as I can tell from today’s article, that buzz seems to be coming from Webster’s own coterie, but it’s not the first time I’ve heard his name associated with the race. (Reading between the lines, it looks like Rep. Vern Buchanan — whose myriad lawsuits regarding campaign finance chicanery and his car dealership seem to have faded into the background — is another name to keep an eye on here.)

• MO-Sen: Sarah Steelman already has one key backer, in the event the quest for the GOP nomination in Missouri turns into a heated primary. The Club for Growth is already lining up behind Steelman, not formally endorsing but sending around a press release touting her and also taking some swipes at Jim Talent for his earmark-lovin’ ways.

• NM-Sen: More Some Dude news in New Mexico, where another random guy who lost a NM-02 primary is getting in the GOP Senate field: Greg Sowards (who lost the 2008 primary to succeed Steve Pearce). Further up the food chain, ex-Rep. Heather Wilson seems to be on GOPers’ wish list, but she says she isn’t focused on that. (I can’t see her running unless Jeff Bingaman decides to retire, and since he has fundraisers planned in coming months, he doesn’t seem to be acting like a retiree.)

• NV-Sen: The big news yesterday was that John Ensign is no longer considered a target for investigation by the DOJ, in connection to that whole ooops-sorry-I-boned-your-wife-here-have-a-lobbying-job thing. He still faces internal Senate Ethics grilling, which could lead to discipline or even expulsion. How are we supposed to feel about this? A bad day for objective justice, perhaps… but probably a net plus for the Democrats, seeing as how this makes it likelier that Ensign runs again and survives a GOP primary (which a recent PPP poll, before this news, already showed him in position to do so) and enters the general election in weakened form. The local GOP seems to be reading this the same way, still feeling very leery about an Ensign run and very much preferring to see Rep. Dean Heller as their 2012 candidate.

• VA-Sen: With Prince William Supervisor Corey Stewart already firing some potshots across George Allen’s bow in advance of 2012’s GOP Senate primary, now it seems like Allen’s camp is returning fire with some heavier-gauge guns. Stewart has to run for re-election to his current job in 2011, and Allen’s camp is supposedly vowing to encourage backers to pour in financial support to Stewart’s opposition in that race (whoever that might be), in order to decapitate a Stewart run before it can materialize.

• MN-Gov: This is taking damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t to a new level: Tom Emmer’s team’s wave of frivolous (and when I say frivolous, I’m not being hyperbolic, as you can see here) ballot challenges in the Minnesota recount has mounted so high that officials have had to add more counting tables… and now Emmer is threatening to sue over the fact that they’ve added more counting tables, saying that that somehow indicates bias against Emmer. The SoS says that adding more tables can’t possibly violate any rules. At any rate, moving on to Day 4 of counting, the official tally now finds that the numbers have still barely budged: Mark Dayton has gained 17 votes since Election Day while Emmer has gained 14, with 84% of the vote recounted, meaning there’s really no path to victory here for Emmer.

• VT-Gov: We mentioned yesterday that Peter Shumlin brought his GOP opponent, Brian Dubie, into his inner circle, and now he’s doing the Team of Rivals thing with his closest competitor from the Dem primary. Ex-Lt. Gov. Doug Racine, who Shumlin beat by 100-or-so votes, is being brought on board as Shumlin’s head of the Agency of Human Services, where his key task will be starting up the state’s planned single-payer health care system.

• WV-Gov: Democratic SoS Natalie Tennant is making even more candidate-ish noises, saying she’s “strongly considering” a gubernatorial run, especially if it occurs in 2011, which would mean not having to give up her current job. Not only are acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin and state House speaker Richard Thompson expected to run for the Dems, but state Sen. Jeff Kessler and state Treasurer John Perdue are also interested.

• MA-01, MA-02: The news from the Bay State is that veteran Democratic Reps. John Olver and Richard Neal are both publicly saying that they’re running for re-election. In any other year, that would be purely yawn-inducing, but this year, that’s fascinating, as it potentially sets them up on a collision course. My expectation was the Massachusetts redistricting conundrum would probably be solved by a retirement from the 74-year-old Olver, and parceling out pieces of the 1st into Neal’s 2nd and Jim McGovern’s 3rd. With Olver and Neal both sticking around, the subtraction is likelier come from the Boston area, where it seems likely that at least one Rep. will vacate in order to take on Scott Brown in 2012 (which would make sense since not only is Mike Capuano sounding the likeliest, but his Cambridge-based 8th is the state’s most depopulated district)… but if none of them take the plunge, the lost seat may come the state’s west. Complicating matters even further is that Pittsfield-based ex-state Sen. Andrea Nuciforo has already announced that he’s running in the MA-01 primary in 2012, Olver or not. (Would she he run in a primary against both Amherst-based Olver and Springfield-based Neal if they all get smooshed together?)

• NY-01: As we mentioned yesterday, Tim Bishop’s team is urging Randy Altschuler to “give in to the math.” Yesterday’s gain from the first day of counting challenged ballots was a net gain of 27 more for Bishop.  

• Redistricting: Here’s one more comprehensive redistricting resource to add to your pile, if you haven’t already seen it. The Brennan Center’s guide includes a rundown on who controls what and what procedures are used state-to-state.

• New York: This is a staggeringly large number, that somehow seems disproportionate to the rather blasé NYT headline: “New York City Board of Elections Finds 200,000 Votes a Month After Election.” It’s a mishmash of affidavit, absentee, and military ballots that apparently were just now added to the totals. 80,000 of those ballots were from Queens alone, which is 31% more than that borough reported on Election Day. While there were some close races in Queens, the city says that this wasn’t enough to reverse the results in any election (and the one race that could have been worrisome, SD-11, actually saw a gain for Tony Avella, who beat GOP incumbent Frank Padavan, from 53-47 to 54.3-45.7).

New Jersey has 40 State Legislative districts. Each district elects 1 Senator and 2 Assemblymen. The State Legislature will be up for election in November 2011, so NJ will need to have its districts ready a year earlier than most other states. Currently the State Senate has 24 Democrats and 16 Republicans. Wikipedia has an excellent map of the State Senate makeup here. (The 14th just turned blue in a special election.) The districts are drawn by a bipartisan commission made of 5 Democrats and 5 Republicans appointed by their respective parties. Some Republicans including Governor Christie claim the current map is an unfair gerrymander favoring the Democrats. I disagree.

New Jersey has 8.7 million people (2007 estimate). Each of the 40 Senate Districts must be within 20% (43,413) of the ideal population (217,067). Municipalities can not be split unless they are more than 1/40 of the entire state’s population. Only 2 cities are that big: Newark and Jersey City. The restriction on splitting municipalities makes the 20% rule necessary.

I didn’t consider incumbents’ residency. I’ll let them figure out which district they want to run in, and if they get drawn out of a winnable district then too bad. I didn’t abuse the 20% rule to favor a political party. I tried to apply population discrepancy as fairly as possible.

The Democratic Gerrymander: 31 Democrats, 9 Republicans



1st District: Cape May Co, most of Cumberland Co. 53% Obama, +2998 people. 70% white

This is the weakest of the Democratic districts. It’s impossible to make a safe Democratic district with all of Cape May Co.

2nd District: eastern Atlantic Co. 59% Obama, -1908 people. 59% white

It got smaller (and more Democratic) due to population growth in the Atlantic City area.

3rd District: Deptfords to Bridgeton 57% Obama, +5596 people. 75% white

It’s a little bit sleeker and more Democratic.

4th District: interior Gloucester, Camden, Salem and Atlantic Co. 58% Obama, +6767 people. 75% white

Anchored by strongly Democratic towns such as Winslow and Monroe. The region between Camden and Atlantic City has grown enough to deserve its own district.

5th District: metro Camden 73% Obama, -3477 people. 51% white, 24% black, 21% Hispanic

6th District: Washington (Glo Co) to Evesham 59% Obama, +15839 people. 79% white

The outer townships are swingy, but the middle (Camden Co) part is strongly Democratic.

7th District: Pennsauken/Cherry Hill area 62% Obama, -254 people. 76% white

8th District: Delanco to Pemberton 67% Obama, -5403 people. 59% white, 27% black

Incumbent Republican Diane Allen lives here. This district should be too Democratic and too different for her to win.

9th District: southern Burlington and Ocean Co 42% Obama, +5336 people. 93% white

The biggest district on this map

10th District: Trenton, Hamilton, northern Burl Co 65% Obama, +2523 people. 54% white, 26% black, 16% Hispanic

Hamilton and Bordentown are Democratic at the presidential level but Republican the local level. Combining them with Trenton should stop them from causing trouble.

11th District: Toms River and western Ocean/Monmouth 42% Obama, +6048 people. 87% white

Almost all of the population is in the eastern part: Toms River and the shore towns.

12th District: Lakewood, Brick, Wall, and everything east 37% Obama, +15120 people. 84% white

Don’t let the small size fool you into thinking it’s urban and therefore liberal. It’s the most Republican district in NJ.

13th District: Tinton Falls and everything east except Rumson 57% Obama, -5642 people. 66% white

The Democrats’ best chance at winning part of Monmouth County. Frank Pallone lives here and you can appreciate why it’s hard to draw him into a Democratic congressional district.

14th District: Rumson/Middletown to Howell 42% Obama, -6983 people. 86% white

Republican Monmouth County in all its teabagging glory.

15th District: Old Bridge to Freehold 49% Obama, -587 people. 74% white

The Democrats’ second best chance at winning part of Monmouth County. I count it as a Republican district but maybe in a wave election it could be the Democrats’ 32nd district.

16th District: Robbinsville to East Brunswick 59% Obama, +23790 people. 66% white, 19% Asian

The current 14th but pushed further north.

17th District: Lawrence to Somerville to Frenchtown 62% Obama, +1033 people. 73% white

A Democratic district anchored in Princeton reaches into Hunterdon and Somerset Counties.

18th District: New Brunswick to Bridgewater 64% Obama, +10382 people. 48% white, 16% black, 13% Asian, 21% Hispanic

19th District: Edison to Middlesex Boro 62% Obama, +14589 people. 50% white, 29% Asian

20th District: Sayreville, South Amboy, Perth Amboy, Woodbridge 60% Obama, -9702 people. 47% white, 13% Asian, 30% Hispanic

Edison and Woodbridge are huge towns that each take up most of a Senate district so that limits where these districts can go. Sayreville and South Amboy are swingy but Woodbridge and especially Perth Amboy make it a strong Democratic district.

21st District: Warren Co and most of Hunterdon Co 42% Obama, +79 people. 87% white

1 of 4 Republican districts in the north

22nd District: southern Morris Co and northern Somerset Co 43% Obama, +5683 people. 82% white

23rd District: Plainfield to Morristown 60% Obama, -827 people. 55% white, 20% black, 19% Hispanic

1 of 2 Democratic districts that reaches into Morris Co.

24th District: Carteret to Summit 60% Obama, -4165 people. 64% white, 16% black, 14% Hispanic

This is Tom Kean Jr’s district and it’s probably too Democratic for him to win it. This map is meant to shut Republicans out of Union County.

25th District: Elizabeth, Roselle Park, Union Twp, Kenilworth 68% Obama, -9436 people. 35% white, 17% black, 43% Hispanic

26th District: West Orange to Parsippany 54% Obama, -24058 people. 71% white, 15% Asian

This is the second weakest of the Democratic districts. I hope the Democrats have the balls to go for it. This underpopulated district is balanced out by the 16th, a similar affluent suburban district that’s overpopulated.

27th District: Fairfield to Nutley 58% Obama, -10336 people. 69% white

Northern Essex county makes a clean compact district. This is the kind of district Republicans would have to win to take the State Senate under this map.

28th District: Hillside to East Orange 92% Obama, -1160 people. 70% black

Sure I could break this up and strengthen nearby suburban Democrats but that wouldn’t be fair to black voters. Even though there isn’t a VRA at the state level.

29th District: Newark except the East Ward 94% Obama, +9081 people. 58% black, 33% Hispanic

The East Ward is the part that’s most different from the rest of Newark.

30th District: Newark’s East Ward, Harrison, Kearny, northwest Jersey City 74% Obama, +7567 people. 37% white, 10% black, 15% Asian, 36% Hispanic

31st District: Bayonne, most of Jersey City, Hoboken 76% Obama, -5099 people. 43% white, 23% black, 11% Asian, 21% Hispanic

The part of New Jersey that’s facing Manhattan.

32nd District: northern Hudson Co 70% Obama, -9167 people. 26% white, 66% Hispanic

This is one of the densest places in America.

33rd District: Passaic to Prospect Park 61% Obama, -21711 people. 48% white, 39% Hispanic

34th District: Paterson to Wayne 68% Obama, +15509 people. 36% white, 19% black, 40% Hispanic

The 2 lower Passaic Co districts balance each other out in population and spread Democratic strength as evenly as possible.

35th District: North Arlington to Edgewater 55% Obama, -10610 people. 61% white, 16% Asian, 20% Hispanic

36th District: Hackensack to Wyckoff 57% Obama, +4722 people. 65% white, 19% Hispanic

37th District: Teaneck to Hillsdale 55% Obama, -6373 people. 63% white, 15% Asian, 13% Hispanic

38th District: Fort Lee to Upper Saddle River 55% Obama, -19114 people. 61% white, 21% Asian, 11% Hispanic

Democratic strength is spread evenly over 4 Bergen County districts. There is an incumbent Republican in one of these districts, Gerry Cardinale, who won’t go down without a fight. Sure it might be smarter to make Bergen Co 3-1, but 4-0 can be done if you accept the risk.

39th District: northern Morris and southeast Sussex 44% Obama, -436 people. 78% white

40th District: Sussex Co, upper Passaic Co, far west Bergen Co 42% Obama, +3767 people. 88% white

The Republican Gerrymander: 21 Republicans, 19 Democrats



1st District: Cape May Co, most of Cumberland Co, southern Atlantic Co. 49% Obama, -9122 people. 77% white

There is only so much you can do with a Cape May-Cumberland based district.

2nd District: Atlantic City to Millville 64% Obama, +15480 people. 49% white, 21% black, 24% Hispanic

A Democratic vote sink in southeast NJ.

3rd District: Salem Co, southern Gloucester Co 51% Obama, -11895 people. 84% white

2 Democratic districts grab Democratic pieces of Gloucester Co and this is what’s left. There are a lot of 51% Obama districts in this map and Republicans will have to hold all of them in order to control the State Senate.

4th District: Glassboro to Winslow to Gloucester Twp 65% Obama, +5349 people. 72% white

A Democratic vote sink in fast growing exurban Camden.

5th District: Paulsboro to Cherry Hill 73% Obama, +1310 people. 79% white

A bowtie-shaped district in suburban Camden taking the Deptfords in the west and Cherry Hill/Voorhees in the east.

6th District: metro Camden, Pennsauken 75% Obama, -1862 people. 46% white, 26% black, 24% Hispanic

7th District: northwest Burlington Co 66% Obama, -13652 people. 65% white, 24% black

A Republican district on borrowed time. Diane Allen’s district with super-Democratic Pennsauken removed and swingy Moorestown added.

8th District: mid Burlington Co 54% Obama, -5473 people, 78% white.

More Republican than the current 8th but it’s also on borrowed time.

9th District: Pinelands 45% Obama, +1626 people. 86% white

Maybe the biggest possible legislative district in NJ.

10th District: Manchester and everything east 42% Obama, +3374 people. 89% white

This is the best, most compact possible Toms River district.

11th District: Brick to Neptune/Asbury Park 47% Obama, +11385 people. 81% white

The Democratic stronghold in eastern Monmouth Co gets broken up.

12th District: Ocean Twp to Middletown 48% Obama, -2331 people. 79% white

13th District: Marlboro to Lakewood 42% Obama, +20025 people. 74% white

Lakewood makes it a very Republican district.

14th District: Bordentown to Jackson 49% Obama, +1427 people. 83% white

Hamilton, Robbinsville and Bordentown get combined with Republican territory in Monmouth and Ocean Co.

15th District: mid Mercer Co 77% Obama, -1260 people. 46% white, 28% black, 16% Hispanic

The most Democratic parts of Mercer Co get packed into 1 district.

16th District: East Windsor to North Brunswick 61% Obama, +18056 people. 63% white, 19% Asian

This is the least Democratic of the Democratic districts on this map. It has some swingy territory such as Monroe and Cranbury but it’s not practical to make another Republican district out of it.

17th District: Sayreville to Holmdel 50% Obama, -6665 people. 73% white

Holmdel is the Republican anchor in this district.

18th District: Franklin to Plainfield 73% Obama, -3410 people. 35% white, 29% black, 15% Asian, 19% Hispanic

It packs in Democrats so the rest of Somerset and western Union can go in Republican districts.

19th District: New Brunswick, Edison, South Plainfield 65% Obama, -5455 people. 45% white, 24% Asian, 19% Hispanic

20th District: Woodbridge, Perth Amboy, Carteret, Rahway 65% Obama, -9392 people. 42% white, 11% black, 12% Asian, 33% Hispanic

21st District: Hopewell to southern Warren Co 47% Obama, -14398 people. 87% white

It’s Republican enough to absorb Hopewell.

22nd District: most of Somerset Co 48% Obama, -4927 people. 74% white

23rd District: western Union Co, eastern Somerset Co, except the Plainfields 50% Obama, -15124 people. 81% white

Tom Kean Jr’s district becomes a little more Republican.

24th District: Linden, Roselle, Elizabeth, Hillside 76% Obama, +555 people. 27% white, 25% black, 43% Hispanic

Union County: the extremely Democratic 24th and barely Republican 23rd cancel each other out. Sounds fair, right?

25th District: western Essex Co, eastern Morris Co 45% Obama, +8071 people. 84% white

26th District: West Orange to Clifton 71% Obama, +24087 people. 54% white, 21% black, 16% Hispanic

This is the only white-majority Democratic district in northern NJ. Packing makes all the other Democratic districts majority-minority.

27th District: Union Twp to East Orange 85% Obama, -2308 people. 26% white, 60% black

28th District: Newark except the East Ward 94% Obama, +9081 people. 58% black, 33% Hispanic

29th District: Newark’s East Ward, Harrison, Kearny, northwest Jersey City 74% Obama, +7567 people. 37% white, 10% black, 15% Asian, 36% Hispanic

30st District: Bayonne, most of Jersey City, Hoboken 76% Obama, -5099 people. 43% white, 23% black, 11% Asian, 21% Hispanic

The Newark-to-Jersey-City districts are the same in both the Democratic and Republican gerrymanders. The region is solidly Democratic so partisan gerrymandering gets done elsewhere.

31st District: Northeast Hudson Co, Edgewater, Cliffside Park 71% Obama, +7678 people. 27% white, 64% Hispanic.

This district reaches into Bergen Co instead of Secaucus to make the Republican Meadowlands district possible.

32nd District: south Bergen Co, Secaucus, Belleville, Nutley 52% Obama, -460 people. 67% white, 12% Asian, 18% Hispanic

A tough district the Republicans have to win in order to take a majority in the State Senate.

33rd District: Passaic to Ridgefield 68% Obama, -7147 people. 38% white, 43% Hispanic

34th District: Paterson, Haledon, Fair Lawn, Elmwood Park 77% Obama, +2697 people. 29% white, 21% black, 46% Hispanic

35th District: Teaneck/Englewood area 64% Obama, +3610 people. 46% white, 12% black, 24% Asian, 17% Hispanic

36th District: northern Bergen Co to Saddle Brook 47% Obama, +3657 people. 78% white

37th District: mid Passaic Co, western Bergen Co 46% Obama, -3884 people. 85% white

38th District: southern Morris Co 47% Obama, -7357 people. 72% white

39th District: northern Morris Co and upper Passaic Co 46% Obama, -4254 people. 80% white

40th District: Sussex Co, most of Warren Co 39% Obama, -9579 people. 88% white

Conclusion

It’s possible to give the Democrats 19 to 31 seats. 25 is the logical compromise. I would suggest incumbent protection (24 Dems) plus the two Burlington County Republicans on borrowed time.

Had a whole write up posted but it got deleted. No comments this time but you guys know the deal by now. Its a 17-16-3 Democratic gerrymander.

http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

El Paso: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 1 (Blue) 54 Obama 66 Hispanic

El Paso and Odessa

Lean/Likely D

District 2 (Green) 57 O 72 H

El Paso and tentacles

Likely D

District 3 (Purple) 56 O 78 H

Mexican Border and some other counties

Likely D

District 4 (Red) 55 0 74 H

Mexican Border and it snakes up

Lean/Likely D

District 5 (Yellow) 55 0 72 H

Mexican Border and Corpus Christi

Likely D

District 6 (Teal) 34 O 59 White

Counties that border the Gulf of Mexico and going inward.

Safe R

San Antonio: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 7 (Gray) 55 O 58 H

Southern San Antonio and surrounding areas

Likely D

District 8 (Lilac Purple) 54 O 54 H

Middle of San Antonio and some other parts of Bexar county.

Lean/Likely D

District 9 (Sky Blue) 33 O 69 W

Northern San Antonio and its conservative suburbs and exurbs.

Safe R

Austin: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 10 (Bright Pink) 55 O 57 W

Austin and its suburbs

Likely D

District 11 (Lime Green) 54 O 63 W

Austin

Lean/Likely D

District 12 (Periwinkle) 53 O 67 W

Austin and Killeen

Lean D

District 13 (Burt Sienna) 31 O 74 W

Waco, Temple and empty spaces

Safe R

District 14 (Gold) 25 O 66 W

A lot of space and part of lubbock

Safe R

District 15 (Orange) 25 O 66 W

More Nothing.

Safe R

Fort Worth: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 16 (Kelly Green) 52 O 51 W

Surprisingly Conservative Fort Worth

Toss-Up

District 17 (Navy Blue) 30 O 84 W

Suburbs of Fort Worth

Safe R

Dallas: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 18 (Golden Yellow) 59 O, 30 Black 19 Hispanic 5 Asian

Dallas

Safe D

District 19 (Puke Green) 54 O, 22 Black 27 Hispanic 2 Asian

Dallas and a few southward counties

Likely D

District 20 (Rose) 55 O, 39 Hispanic 14 Black 6 Asian

Dallas and Irving

Likely D

District 21 (Blood Red) 50 O, 54 W

Dallas  and surrounding areas

Toss-Up

District 22 (Poo Brown) 39 O 72 W

North of Dallas and FW

Safe R (Winnable with a great candidate in a good year or an incumbent in an ok one, but tilts very r)

District 23 (Robin’s Egg Blue) 35 O 75 W

North of FW to OK border

Safe R

District 24 (Dark Purple) 29 O 72 W

Wraps Around 19, 13 to the end of 11

Safe R

District 25 (Salmon)  35 O, 79 W

North Of Dallas

Safe R

District 26 (Dark Gray) 33 O, 77 W

Between OK Border and 24

Safe R

District 27 (Seafoam Green)31 O 72 W

Along the LA Border

Safe R

Houston: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

Note: I made a small error here in the large map. It is fixed in the numbers and in the close–up of houston (part of the district didn’t connect)

District 28 (Really Light Purple) 58 O  28 Black 13 Asian 26 Hispanic

Southwest Houston

Safe D

District 29 (Sage Green) 33 O 73 W

Northeast of Houston

Safe R

District 30 (Pinkish-Red near houston) 33 O 70 W

Wraps Around Houston

Safe R

District 31 (Pale Yellow) 39 O, 61 W

South of Houston

Safe R (See District 22)

District 32 (Bright Red) 37 O, 66 W

Wraps even closer around Houston then does 30

Safe R

District 33 (Denim Blue) 56 O, 24 B 7 A 28 H

Houston

Likely D

District 34 (Green in Houston) 51 O, 12 B 6 A 34 H

Houston

Toss-up

District 35 (Purple in Houston) 53 O, 16 B 3 A  43 H

North Houston

Lean D

District 36 (Orange in Houston) 62 O, 26 B 42 H

Southeast Houston riding up to Northwest Houston

Safe D

What I think makes this most effective is that the Democratic districts will only get more liberal over the Decade, cementing the safety of Incumbents and helping unseat any republicans who manage to pull an upset or win a toss-up.

Please reply, this took a while 🙂

And a big thank you for my girlfriend for help with the names of colors (You can tell which parts she left for, lol)

• AK-Sen: The state of Alaska is intervening in the Joe Miller state-level lawsuit over the counting of write-in votes, asking for an expedited ruling. They’d like the whole thing to be over and done with by Dec. 9, so that there’s no delay in seating Alaska’s next (or same) Senator. The state’s filing also, amazingly, says that the court should find for the state “unless Miller provides proof to back up claims of fraud.” Actually provide proof of something?!? Sounds like a bunch of lib’rul elitists with all that emphasis on “facts,” instead, of y’know, common sense.

• IN-Sen: Richard Lugar is pretty much daring a tea-partier challenge at this point, gladly painting his own target on his back with his own paintbrush. He was the only Republican up in 2012 who voted “no” on the proposed earmark ban that didn’t pass the Senate yesterday. (Seven other GOPers voted no, but they aren’t up this cycle and are from the already out-and-proud porker side of the party anyway, like Lisa Murkowski and Thad Cochran.) Perhaps most galling to the teabag set, Lugar actually invoked Article I of the Constitution in doing so.

• MI-Sen: While everyone waits on Peter Hoekstra to see if he runs, a random rich guy who’s been a big behind-the-scenes donor for the Republicans is making some noises about a 2012 bid against Debbie Stabenow. Tim Leuliette has been “considering” the race and calling around to gauge support. Interestingly, his job until October was CEO of an auto parts distributor, Dura Automotive; wonder how he’ll spin the Obama administration’s auto industry bailout (without which he’d probably be wearing a barrel and selling pencils on a street corner).

• WA-Sen: I know everyone here likes maps (especially maps with lots of blue on them), so here’s an interesting one that shows just what any Republican running statewide in Washington is up against: it’s a precinct-by-precinct map of the three Puget Sound counties (King, Snohomish, and Pierce) showing how they voted in the 2010 Senate race. Seattle (which is about 10% of the state’s total vote) has simply become the nut that’s impossible for Republicans to crack; Patty Murray got 82% of the vote there, and lost 1 out of 960 precincts.

• LA-Gov: A survey from Southern Media & Opinion Research (mmmmm… smores) shows Bobby Jindal’s popularity coming down to relatively normal levels from its extreme highs back of his initial years, just in time for his re-election bid in 2011. He has a 55% approval, compared with 77% in 2008, and his re-elects are 39/35, not that there’s much of a compelling Democratic bench here anymore to take advantage of those undecided voters. Interesting post-script: the survey was paid for by random rich guy Lane Grigsby, whose individual IEs almost single-handedly defeated Don Cazayoux in LA-06 in 2008.

• MN-Gov: After a second day of recounting in Minnesota, nearly 70% of all the votes have been accounted for. The SoS is saying that Mark Dayton is now down 38 votes from the Election Day totals while Tom Emmer is down 1 (and not going to make up that nearly 9,000 vote margin at this rate). Mark Dayton’s team, however, is claiming a net gain of 205 in the recount based on allocation of ballot challenges. Sensing that the recount isn’t doing anything to change the outcome, Emmer’s team is starting to change the topic to post-recount litigation, perhaps focused on allegations that “reconciliation” (matching the number of votes to the number of voters in each precinct) wasn’t properly done. Dayton has raised $1 million so far purely to fund the recount, and Emmer isn’t far behind in fundraising.

• VT-Gov: Brian Dubie isn’t looking like a likely candidate for the GOP for 2012, as he’s taken an informal post in the administration of his former foe, incoming Dem Gov. Peter Shumlin. He’ll be the state’s de facto “ambassador” to its big neighbor to the north, Quebec. In comments, doug tuttle has a list of potential other GOP challengers next cycle, with Dem-turned-GOPer state auditor Tom Salmon at the top of the list.

• NY-01: It looks like we’re finally getting some movement on the challenged ballots part of the equation in the 1st, which is all that remains to be resolved. The tally will begin today, with slightly over 2,000 ballots to be decided (although both parties, meeting with a local judge, have agreed to withdraw around 200 challenges and proposed another 200 withdrawals — including the notorious challenge to a group of 31 SUNY-Stony Brook students). Tim Bishop’s lead is currently 215 votes, and the majority of the challenges have come from Randy Altschuler’s camp. UPDATE: Based on today’s activity so far, Bishop’s camp is actively pushing the journalistic powers-that-be to call the race. Bishop’s camp says he picked up an additional 20 votes today. There’s also a stack of 162 valid ballots that haven’t been added to the count yet that will add another 12 to Bishop’s lead. Altschuler has only 1,149 challenges remaining, 649 of which are based on residency.

• OR-St. Sen.: Ordinarily, a recount in a state Senate race, at this point, would be too far down in the weeds for even our purposes. However, when it has the potential to flip the chamber, it’s worth a mention. The GOP is seeking a recount in SD-3, centered on Ashland in southern Oregon, where incumbent Dem state Sen. Alan Bates beat Dave Dotterrer by 275. It’s outside the auto-recount margin where the state would pay for it, but the cost is only $15K-$25K for the state GOP, so it’s low risk, possibility of high gain: if somehow they turn the result around, it’d drop the chamber to a 15-15 tie instead of the 16-14 current Dem advantage.

• Mayors: As far as mayoral races go, Chicago seems to be taking up all the oxygen, but there’s a number of other important ones this year. Denver was already scheduled to be up this year in May, but it takes on new importance with popular incumbent John Hickenlooper about to take over as Governor (at which point the deputy mayor will take over for five months). One candidate with a locally-big name has already announced: state Sen. Chris Romer (son of former Gov. Roy Romer).

• Passages: Finally, condolences to the friends and family of Democratic ex-Rep. Stephen Solarz, who represented parts of Brooklyn from 1974 to 1992 and who just died at age 70. Solarz was a major force in foreign policy circles until check-bouncing and redistricting brought his ascendancy to an abrupt end. If you haven’t already read Steve Kornacki’s fascinating profile of Solarz — including his relationship with Chuck Schumer, and the confirmation that, no matter how big a deal you are within the Beltway, all politics is ultimately local — read it now.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (11/29-12/1, Missouri voters, no trendlines):

Claire McCaskill (D): 45

Sarah Steelman (R): 44

Undecided: 12

Claire McCaskill (D): 45

Jim Talent (R): 47

Undecided: 8

Claire McCaskill (D): 44

Peter Kinder (R): 46

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.3%)

With Sarah Steelman’s surprise announcement today already declaring her candidacy for the 2012 Senate race, PPP rushed out some numbers for the race (apparently cutting their sample a little short — note that the sample period extends as far as today!). In a state that’s polarized deeply between urban and rural voters and has become accustomed to extremely close races — this was the narrowest Obama/McCain margin of any state, and Claire McCaskill’s 2006 defeat of Jim Talent was by only 2% — it looks like we’re on track for yet another close one. McCaskill has a statistically insignificant lead over Steelman and a similar deficit against Talent (and also against Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, who is pretty well committed to the gubernatorial race at this point).

The innards show pretty much what you’d expect in this light-red and deeply-split state: McCaskill’s popularity is pretty middling (43/44, with 77% of Dems approving and 77% of GOPers disapproving), though better than Barack Obama’s (43/52). The main problem for the GOPers is that they aren’t especially well-known and are basically functioning as Generic Rs (even ex-Sen. Talent, who may not have made much of an impression in his initial four years). Talent is at 36/32, while Steelman is 59% unknown at 22/19. McCaskill should feel lucky she’s running in 2012, a presidential year when turnout by casual Dem voters is likely to be high, instead of having had to run in 2010.

After a few days of suddenly ramped-up chatter about Sarah Steelman getting in the Senate race, all of a sudden, she’s officially in:

Before filing as a candidate with the Secretary of the Senate this afternoon, Steelman will launch a campaign website this morning that outlines her decision to become the first Republican in the race against Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill.

“I want to do my part in fighting for America’s future. That’s why I have decided to run for the United States Senate,” Steelman writes on the homepage of her revamped website, www.SarahSteelman.com.

Steelman’s entry complicates matters greatly for Jim Talent, who’d been expected to seek a rematch against Claire McCaskill (who beat him in 2006) but now must go into a GOP primary flying the establishment flag against a challenger with a cadre of tea-party supporters. Steelman, of course, played the same role in the 2008 gubernatorial primary, badly damaging then-Rep. Kenny Hulshof en route to his wide loss in the general; she had also briefly considered running in 2010 against Roy Blunt in the GOP primary. Yesterday she got some assurances from the NRSC that they wouldn’t take sides in a Talent/Steelman primary, and (unlike 2010, where Blunt’s early entry seemed to drive her off) that was apparently enough for her to jump in quickly before Talent (who says he’ll have a decision in coming months) could get entrenched.

• AK-Sen: Joe Miller lost yet another courtroom round yesterday, although this one was kind of inconsequential from a legal standpoint: he’d wanted his court challenges to the election to be held in his town of Fairbanks, but the venue will be the state capital, Juneau, instead. In most states that wouldn’t be a big deal, but given the difficulty of getting from one town to the other, that provides one more logistical disincentive for Miller to continue his lost cause.

• FL-Sen: After having spent every day for the last two years laboriously typing out “Alexi Giannoulias” over and over, now I’m going to have to get used to “Mike Haridopolos.” The newly minted Republican state Senate President is already acting Senate-candidate-ish, doing the DC circuit today, including a visit to the all-powerful US Chamber of Commerce.

• ME-Sen: Maine-area tea partiers are breathlessly telling everybody that they’ve found a primary challenger to Olympia Snowe who is “credible” and has the financial resources to become an “instant contender.” The problem is, they’re stopping there and not saying specifically who the mystery person is, although an announcement allegedly will happen in early 2011. (UPDATE: There’s one useful piece of news buried deep in the article, actually: Chellie Pingree says she won’t run for the Dems for this seat in 2012.)

• MO-Sen: This may be the most interesting news of the day: despite a likely run from a former one of their own (Jim Talent), the NRSC is actively encouraging Sarah Steelman’s interest in the race, with John Cornyn assuring her that they’d stay neutral in a Talent/Steelman primary. As a former state Treasurer, she seems to have more credible chops than the Sharron Angle/Ken Buck axis that cost the GOP a couple seats this year, but still has enough credibility with the tea partiers so that it looks like the NRSC isn’t trying to shove them back in the attic; they probably also think a female candidate might match up better against Claire McCaskill.

• MN-Gov: The numbers didn’t budge much during the first full day of the Minnesota gubernatorial recount (where Mark Dayton leads by just shy of 9,000): Dayton gained 20 votes, while Tom Emmer lost four, after 44% of the ballots were recounted yesterday. Emmer challenged 281 ballots; Dayton challenged 86. While there weren’t any write-ins for “Lizard People” this time, there was one vote cast for “Who Farted?”

• MO-Gov: Republican Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder’s interest in running against his boss, Dem Jay Nixon, has been pretty clearly telegraphed for years already, but he’s starting to make that look more tangible. He now says he won’t run for another term as LG, and he also appeared at last week’s RGA conference in San Diego.

• NY-01: Tim Bishop lost some minor ground with the counting of military ballots in the last House race still undecided. There weren’t very many of them, but they broke pretty heavily in Randy Altschuler’s way: 44-24. Bishop’s lead is now apparently 215.

• WA-08: Maybe this one is better filed as “WATN?” Suzan DelBene, who narrowly lost to Dave Reichert, has landed on her feet; she was just appointed by Chris Gregoire as the new director of the state Dept. of Revenue. It’s unclear, though, whether this is intended to raise her statewide profile and give her some governmental experience for future runs, or if this takes her off the table for a 2012 run in WA-08 (or hypothetical WA-10).

• NY-St. Sen.: Democratic state Sen. Antoine Thompson conceded to GOP challenger Mark Grisanti yesterday in the Buffalo-based SD-60. That means there are 31 GOP-held seats in the New York Senate; to get to a 31-31 tie, the Dems will need to hold both Suzi Oppenheimer’s SD-37 (looking likely) and Craig Johnson’s SD-7 (not looking likely, as he trails by several hundred, with the exact number not clear yet). (Or alternately, they could, as occasionally rumored, flip Grisanti, who was a Dem up until when he ran for the race and will essentially need to be one in order to be re-elected.) Thompson’s loss is, in fact, pretty mystifying — I knew this was a Dem-heavy district, but it went 77-22 for Obama (the equivalent of D+24 based on just 2008 numbers)! Ordinarily, a Dem would have to be under indictment or in dead-girl/live-boy territory to lose in that kind of district; in fact, everyone seems mystified, but the theory is that an upsurge in white votes in that district motivated by the candidacy of local fave Carl Paladino pushed Grisanti over the hump (although there are claims (we don’t have the data to confirm yet) that Andrew Cuomo still managed to win in the 60th, which would tend to counteract that theory).

• State legislatures: We already mentioned four party-switchers from the Dems to the GOP in the Alabama legislature, following the change in the majority there, but there’s also a handful of other changes to mention (though not as many changes as we saw in 1994): 13 changes in 5 states. That includes 5 in the Georgia House and 1 in the Georgia Senate, 1 in the South Dakota Senate, 1 in the Maine House, and in 1 in the Louisiana House (which had the consequence of officially flipping the chamber to GOP control, although that body already had a GOP speaker). Politico has more on the changes in the south (in a rather hyperbolically titled article).

• DSCC: It’s official: Patty Murray is the one who got left holding the burning bag of dog doo. She signed on for a second stint as head of the DSCC for the 2012 cycle. She also ran it during the 2002 cycle, when the Democrats lost two seats.

• DGA: One of the other Dem holes needing to be filled also got filled today: Martin O’Malley, fresh off a surprisingly easy victory in Maryland (and possibly looking at something bigger in 2016), is taking over the helm at the DGA. With only a couple troublesome holds on the horizon in 2012, I’d imagine this job was a little easier to fill than the DSCC.

• Demographics: Democracy Corps (or GQR, if you prefer) is out with a memo that’s worth a read. Most of it is about messaging, which is a little outside SSP’s scope (though still worth a read, in terms of what worked, and mostly didn’t work, in 2010, and what recent polls have shown works better going forward). There’s also some discussion of demographics, though, in terms of what kind of a turnout model they’re expecting (or at least hoping for) in 2012.

Starting today at 9:30AM Pacific, the eight current members of the California Redistricting Commission will choose the six additional members (two of each party group) who will complete the panel. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to correctly guess who those six members will be.

The current eight are as follows:

Rose Report (http://rosereport.org/20101118/state-auditor-selects-first-8-members-of-ca-redistricting-commission/)

Democrats:

Cynthia Dai – Female, Asian-American, San Francisco, SF County

Elaine Kuo – Female, Asian-American, Mountain View, Santa Clara County

Jeanne Raya – Female, Latina, San Gabriel, LA County

Republicans:

Vincent Barabba – Male, Anglo, Capitola, Santa Cruz County (former director of U.S. Census Bureau)

Jodie Filkins Webber – Female, Asian-American, Norco, Riverside County

Peter Yao – Male, Asian-American, Claremont, LA County (city councilmember)

Other:

Stanley Forbes – Male, Anglo, Esparto, Yolo County

Connie Galambos Malloy – Female, African-American, Oakland, Alameda County

The lists of remaining members can be found at www.WeDrawtheLines.ca.gov

Here are my picks:

Gil Ontai, Rep, San Diego (only applicant left from San Diego)

Byrd Lochtie Other, Humboldt (only person from North of Sacramento)

Maria Blanco, Dem, Los Angeles (only applicant from LA City)

Teresa Espana, Other, Fresno (Central Valley)

James Vidal, Rep, Riverside

Gabino Aguirre, Dem, Ventura

And having gone through them, I doubt I’ll get more than two of them right. The combination of the leadership strikes and the lottery produced some disproportionalities that I couldn’t figure out how to overcome.