Tag: Illinois

Illinois looks to be one of the few bright spots for Democrats in redistricting.  An unexpected hold of the Governor’s seat gives Illinois Democrats the vaunted trifecta.  This map assumes blank things:

1) There will be 3 black VRA districts and a single Hispanic district.  In the next redistricting there will likely finally be 2 Hispanic seats.  For now the Hispanic community is too spread out to effectively draw a district.

2) Comebacks aren’t the most effective way to go.  Some of those had no right to be blue (see IL-14, IL-8), drawing a map based on those districts isn’t the wisest path for a Democratic gerrymander.

3) The Democrats won’t shy away from drawing districts that require a fight.  There’s an impulse toward the safest path in the Democratic party.  A map with about 10 surefire Democratic seats may be possible, but this year it’s worth it to push for the extra seats.

It’s been done to death, but it’s where I live and work so, without further ado:

CD 1 (Blue)- Bobby Rush (D)

W: 39% B: 54%

Major Cities: Orland Park, Tinley Park, Orland Park, Blue Island, Homer Glen, Chicago

Safe Democratic

Bobby Rush’s southwest side district remains mostly the same.  It is significantly less black than it was before, but it is still a majority.  The district reaches out and grabs a significant chunk of the current 13th district.  It will remain a safe Democratic district, if not so overwhelmingly.

CD 2(Dark Green)-Jesse Jackson Jr. (D)

W: 32% B: 54% H: 11%

Major Cities: Chicago Heights, Calumet City, Peotone, Chicago

Safe Democratic

Similar to the 1st district the 2nd grabs some Republican leaning areas and becomes significantly less black.  Like the 1st it’s still a solid Democratic district and Rep. Jackson’s as long as he wants it.

CD 3 (Purple)-Dan Lipinski (D) or Judy Biggert (R)

W: 64% H: 27%

Major Cities: Hinsdale, Burbank, Oak Lawn, Berwyn, Cicero, Chicago

Safe Democratic

Judy Biggert’s home is technically in the 3rd, but running here would be an uphill fight for her.  More likely she’ll decide that at 75 her decades of public service are enough.  The core of the Lipinski family’s 3rd district is still there.  It picks up more Hispanic areas in the east to offset the areas of DuPage it grabs.

CD 4(Red)-Luis Gutierrez (D)

W: 19% H: 70%

Major Cities: Chicago

Safe Democratic

It’s still super-Hispanic.  The northern enclave is somewhat larger and the southern one somewhat smaller.  The connection between the sections is less painfully gerrymandered.

CD 5(Yellow)-Mike Quigley (D)

W: 64% H: 23%

Major Cities: Addison, Bensenville, Elmwood Park, Chiago

Lean Democratic

The 5th district grabs a large chunk of downtown Chicago and a large chunk of DuPage County.  I’m most worried about this district’s safety, back of the envelope numbers and a couple of guesses say the district should be safe, but actual results would make me feel better about the seat.  Quigley does hold onto most of his base and the majority of the district is in Chicago.  Admittedly I’m being over cautious.

CD 6(Teal)-Peter Roskam (R), Randy Hultgren (R), or Judy Biggert (R)

W: 75% A: 9% H: 10%

Major Cities: Wheaton, Naperville, Downers Grove, St. Charles, Barrington Hills

Safe Republican

Bench: Fred Crespo-HD 44

The 6th district becomes a suburban Republican vote sink.  Roskam’s district keeps its Wheaton base, grabs Republican strongholds in Naperville, St. Charles, and Barrington Hills.  All of the west and northwest suburban precincts that are unpleasant for Democrats get stuffed in here.  If Democrats insist on running a candidate who is more than a placeholder, state rep Fred Crespo held his seat in November and could run.  It’s a bad idea, but if the party insists.  On the Republican side both Roskam and Hultgren live in the district.  Both represented the 48th district in the state Senate and a primary fight between the two would be something to see.  A big part of Biggert’s base is in the district.  She could decide to run here, but is as likely to retire.  Which is disappointing because I’d pay to see a three-way brawl between sitting Republican Congressmen.

CD 7(Silver)-Danny Davis (D)

W: 25% B: 53% H: 16%

Major Cities: Villa Park, Elmhurst, Bellwood, Oak Park, Chicago

Safe Democratic

Davis’ district picks up some new territory in DuPage.  It’s still a majority black district (though less than before).  And it’s still a Democratic district, though less than its current D+35.

CD 8(Purple)-Joe Walsh (R) or Vacant

W: 67% H: 19%

Major Cities: Waukegan, Lake Forest, Highland Park, Vernon Hills, Grayslake, Gurnee

Lean Democrat

Bench-Rep. Melissa Bean, Sen. Susan Garrett LD-29, Sen. Terry Link-LD 30

The 8th pulls almost entirely out of Cook County and takes the whole of Lake County plus a sliver of Barrington.  It’s a swing district.  Bean may have been able to hold it this year, especially against Walsh.  This district leans ever so slightly Democrat.  Bean could run again here, she’s not a retread for most of the district.  She kept the score close throughout Lake County in 2010, and won it in 2008.  Even Dan Seals won the parts of Lake in the 10th in 2010 and 2008.  If Bean doesn’t make an attempt to reclaim her seat State Senators Susan Garrett and Terry Link are positioned to make a run for Congress.

CD 9(Blue)-Jan Schakowsky (D)

W: 64% A: 11% H: 14%

Major Cities: Evanson, Park Ridge, Des Plaines, Evanston, Chicago

Safe Democrat

Schakowsky’s seat doesn’t change much.  She loses much of Skokie and Niles and picks up more of Chicago and Republicans areas around Northfield, Wheeling and Rosemont.  If anything her seat comes out stronger.

CD 10(Pink)-Bob Dold (R)

W: 70% A: 14% H: 12%

Major Cities: Schaumberg, Rolling Meadows, Arlington Heights, Skokie, Northbrook

Lean Democrat

Bench: Rep. Elaine Nekritz HD-59, Sen. Jeff Schoenberg LD-9, Julie Hamos, Dan Seals

This seat should have been a Democratic seat ages ago.  Any gerrymander should be sure to put the 10th over the top.  The 10th now stays mostly within Cook County, ducking into DuPage for just a few thousand votes.  If Democratic strongholds in Schaumburg, Niles, Skokie, Northbrook and Winnetka combined with Democratic trending Hoffman, Elk Grove and Palatine can’t produce a Democrat in this district then there truly is a curse.  Popular state Senator Jeff Schoenberg could make a successful run for the seat, though the real boon would be state rep Elaine Nekritz.  Nekritz is an archetypical suburban Democrat: socially progressive and fiscally moderate.  She would run the table in a district like this.  Some area Democrats are hoping for a Julie Hamos comeback.  I dislike the idea personally because of the first rule of suburban Chicago politics: if you can’t beat Dan Seals you don’t get a second chance.  Which leads us to Dan Seals, who could take a fourth crack at the seat.  By no means should he, but by no means should he have run this year, so we’ll have to see.

CD 11(Blue)-Adam Kinzinger (R) or Tim Johnson (R)

W: 79% B: 11%

Major Cities: Champaign-Urbana, Bloomington-Normal, Decatur, Danville, Kankakee

Tossup

Bench: Sen. Mike Frerichs-LD 52

The 11th grabs every Democratic leaning city in eastern Illinois.  The college towns Champaign-Urbana (People’s Republic of) and Bloomington-Normal as well as the union towns of Decatur and Danville make up half to two-thirds of the district.  The rest of the district is decidedly anti-Democrat.  Putting this district in the D-column comes down to a turnout fight.  Sen. Mike Frerichs is a Democrat who can win right-leaning voters.  He’ll be able to stop a Republican from running up the score in between the cities.  Tim Johnson lives in Urbana and represents the 15th district currently.  He could run here and have a chance to win, but up-and-comer Adam Kinzinger also live in the district.  Johnson has seniority, but Kinzinger has the potential to be a rising star of the party.  Here’s hoping for a cage match.

CD 12(Blue)-Jerry Costello (D)

W: 79% B: 16%

Major Cities: East St. Louis, Edwardsville, Carbondale, Alton, Cairo

Safe Democrat

The 12th is relatively unchanged.  It picks up some new territory in Calhoun County and around Edwardsville, drops some of Williamson and Jefferson Counties, and remains a safe district for incumbent Costello.

CD 13(Pink)-Randy Hultgren (R) or Vacant

W: 61% B: 11% H: 24%

Major Cities: Joliet, Aurora, Lockport, Romeoville, Batavia

Lean Democratic

Bench: Rep. Bill Foster, Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia-HD 83, Sen. Linda Holmes-LD 42, Sen. Arthur Wilhelmi-LD 43.

The 13th district picks up Aurora and Joliet for its loses in DuPage.  This district is distinctly more Democratic.  It’s not a district to take for granted, but in a fair fight expect a Democratic win.  Bill Foster could run for this district from Batavia, or any member of the deep bench in the area could rally a coalition of minority and working class voters in the area.  Sen. Wilhelmi would, I believe be the strongest candidate on the Democratic side.  Hultgren could run here if the party moved to protect Roskam.  It would ultimately be a fools errand; in 2010 Foster pounded Hultgren 61-37 in Aurora.

CD 14(Brown)-Joe Walsh (R) or Vacant

W: 71% H: 19%

Major Cities: Elgin, Rockford, McHenry, Crystal Lake, Batavia

Tossup

Bench: Rep. Jack Franks-HD 63, Rep. Keith Farnham-HD 43, Sen. Mike Noland-LD 22

Joe Walsh could run here.  He’s claiming his home is in McHenry now.  McHenry County was good to Walsh in 2010 and he may want to stay with his base.  The district is not as Republican as it looks at first glance.  Democratic Rockford and Elgin make up about half of the district while McHenry county not is the wasteland it was five or ten years ago.  Democrat Jack Franks has kept his northwest McHenry county seat Democratic for more than a decade now.  If Franks runs it’s a narrow advantage for the Democrats, if he doesn’t it’s a complete tossup.

CD 15(Orange)-Tim Johnson (R) or John Shimkus (R)

W: 93%

Major Cities: Charleston, Effingham, Colinsville, Metropolis, Centralia

Safe Republican

Bench: Rep. Jay Hoffman-HD 112, Rep. Brandon Phelps-HD 118, Sen. Gary Forby-LD 59

The Republicans have to go somewhere.  This is one of them.  Any democrat running here is a ConservaDem placeholder.  The interesting thing to watch could be two powerful Republicans wailing on each other.  If Johnson is pushed out of the 11th to make way for Kinzinger then it’s likely that he’ll hop the border and try to run in the 15th.  About a third of Johnson’s old 15th remains in the new 15th.  If neither Johnson nor Shimkus feel like retiring things could get fun down here, grab the popcorn.

CD 16(Light Green)-Don Manzullo (R)

W: 87%

Major Cities: Freeport, Galena, Rochelle, DeKalb, Morris, Lasalle

Lean Republican

Bench: Rep. Careen Gordon-HD 75, Rep. Frank Mautino-HD 76

Manzullo’s old district, less Rockford, Boone County and McHenry County plus north-central Illinois.  This 16th will generally be a Republican hold, but is not as monolithic as the other downstate Republican seats.  Bureau, LaSalle, Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Stephenson are willing to vote Democratic if they’re given a good enough reason.  Combined with liberal Putnam county and left trending exurban counties (DeKalb, Kane, Kendall) this seat could turn blue for a short while in a Democratic wave year.

CD 17(Purple)-Bobby Schilling (R) or Aaron Schock (R)

W: 82% B: 10%

Major Cities: Peoria, Quad Cities, Springfield, Galesburg, Sterling, Macomb

Lean Democratic

Bench: Rep. Mike Boland-HD 71, Sen. Mike Jacobs-LD 36, Sen. David Koehler-LD 46, Rep. Phil Hare.

This was a Democratic seat for some 30-years.  It still is; it fell prey to a weak candidate and a terrible year in an area that has passed recession and is economically depressed.  There is no problem with keeping a western Illinois Democratic district.  This map strengthens the 17th, cutting Republican Adams and Hancock Counties and picking up Peoria, Mason County, and the rest of Springfield while holding the Democratic core of Knox, Henderson, Mercer and Rock Island Counties.  A number of Democrats have expressed interest in taking back what will be one of DCCC’s top targets in 2012.  Any of them should have a good chance to beat the Republican.  Bobby Schilling currently represents the 17th, but Aaron Schock now lives in the district.  He’ll likely keep running in the 18th though.

CD 18(Yellow)-Aaron Schock (R)

W: 95%

Major Cities: Quincy, Jacksonville, Pekin, East Peoria

Safe Republican

Bench: Sen. John Sullivan-LD 47, Sen. Deanna Demuzio-LD 49

Schock’s district gets stronger.  He picks up Macoupin County and its Democratic machine, but more than cancels it out with Adams, Hancock and Tazewell Counties.

Madigan may balk at this map.  It somewhat weakens Lipinski while strengthening Schakwsky (Madigan likes Lipinski and dislikes Schakowsky) and it likely takes Jack Franks out of the House, a seat that will probably flip without Franks.  Also, rather than going for a more sure 13-5 split the map tries to run up the score to 14-4.

This map isn’t necessarily a prediction of what we’ll see.  But it is, I believe, the most aggressive map Democrats can draw.  And as a Democrat its the map I hope to see.

Heeding some of the comments I received on yesterday’s map (thank you by the way!), I drew a slightly more VRA-observant, slightly more cautious, but still robust Democratic gerrymander of Illinois.  This map assumes that the DOJ is going to insist on 60%+ for Chicago’s already-protected VRA Latino district and therefore only drew a second one that is 52% Hispanic for Lipinski.  Probably by the end of this decade it will become enough Hispanic to elect a Hispanic congressman.  I was convinced in the commentary that my 56% Latino district of yesterday’s map is of questionable legality.

I also drew each of the 3 VRA Black districts 53% Black.  Why 53% you might ask?  That is how much each of the districts contain now when you add in additional population to account for relative population loss.  That is the maximum you can realistically place in a VRA protected Black district from Chicago after 2010, assuming that the census estimates are accurate.  We’ll know for sure in a few months.  I was under the impression that the courts have started interpreting the VRA to require 50%+1 when possible of the population but perhaps it’s a bit more in areas where it is feasible to create such districts?

The other two highlighted changes from yesterday is that I firmed up the 14th and made it an almost certain Democratic pickup like the district I designed for Debbie Halvorson.  I do not agree with the comment made by a person or two that my finger down the lake for the 10th isn’t robust enough.  I double checked the numbers today: it is nearly 150,000 new residents of precincts that on average gave 85-90% of their votes to Obama and probably 80-85% to Kerry four years earlier. This more than makes up for the loss of Waukegan.  Waukegan in turn helps Melissa Bean in her rematch with Joe Walsh.  I respectfully disagree with the comment suggesting it did not help elect a Democrat congressman finally to the 10th, although not three-time loser Dan Seals (please!).  Whether we want to quibble over whether I should label it safe Democratic or probably Democratic, Dolt is a one-term wonder.

The second significant change is that I created a second Republican vote sink in northern Illinois and placed Biggert, Roskam, and Hultgren in the same seat that swoops from the more Republican areas of DuPage out a narrow tendril to further exurbia.  Should be fun watching that primary.

I then grouped Manzullo and Schiller together in a district that favors Manzullo.  The third pair-up includes Schock vs. Kinzinger out of personal spite.  One of these glamour boys has got to go!  And it will be 2014 until they can think on taking on Dick Durbin or Governor Quinn; good luck again either!

Chicagoland:

District 1 (dark blue): Rush-D 53%B, 39%W.  Stays in Cook County now but takes very white areas away from Lipinski so the district can comply with the VRA.

District 2 (dark green): Jackson Jr.-D 53%B, 39%W.  Gives up a bit of Hispanic and racially mixed south Chicago and suburbs to Halvorson in exchange for a bit of lean-Republican suburbia formerly in Biggert’s district.  Still Jackson will have no worries here and it may introduce him to some new voters he’ll need if he ever wants to follow through on his statewide aspirations.

District 3 (purple): Lipinski-D 51% Hispanic, 41% White

Probably white-majority electorate but as the children become voters, this district will eventually probably elect a second Hispanic congressman.  I expect a lot of hollering about this district and possibly some lawsuits, but the comments on yesterday’s map convinced me of its dubious legality regarding these two seats.  Besides, I offer you two options here.

District 4 (red): Gutierrez-D 63% Hispanic, 26% White, 5% Black.  It’s certainly possible to cram more Hispanics in here but I think it will no longer be legal to do this.  The VRA – as has been pointed out – is not designed to ensure the election of a member of the ethnic group but rather to give that ethnic or racial group the maximum opportunity of electing candidates of their choice.  Again, I’ve shown yesterday that it is feasible to create two districts that, on paper, are majority Hispanic – the question is whether the DOJ and/or the courts will require it be done.  We’ll find out next year.

Also I see no reason to draw the earmuffs except to preserve a Republican gerrymander, which is why they were drawn in the first place after 1990.  By reconnecting the two parts of the seat a bit differently, you can have Davis go out into DuPage County and free up enough non-Black areas of Chicago currently in his district to vote in the 10th.

District 7 (grey) Davis-D 53%B, 33%W, 8%H

Almost goes up to Roskam’s doorstep.  Helps out the gerrymander perhaps the most as it probably ensures the election of a new Democratic congressman from the 10th and, indirectly, helps out Melissa Bean in her comeback bid as it free up enough territory that the 10th doesn’t need Waukegan.

District 5 (yellow) Quigley-D 70%W, 16%H, 4%B

In the absence of partisan numbers, I’ll guestimate based on the racial numbers and from eye-balling this that I’ve left enough of Quigley’s Chicago base to not cause him much worries.  The areas of northern DuPage County were 50-50 in Kerry-Bush and are probably slightly Dem-leaning by now.  Elk Grove also I believe is slightly Dem-leaning by now.

District 9 (light blue) Schakowsky-D 63%W, 14%H, 13%A, 8%B

Again, I believe the addition of Wheeling Twp with Mt. Pleasant is probably not endangering Schakowsky terribly, especially when I left intact her Jewish and liberal Chicago and northern suburban base.

District 10 (pink-red) Dolt-R but probably I’m guessing Hamos-D 74%W, 11%H, 9%A, 5%B

A competent suburban Democrat can win this district.  As pointed out in the comments to my other map, the thin narrow tendril down to Navy Pier is deceiving; it is packed with high-rises which vote ~85% Democratic.  I tried not to rob too much of them from Schakowsky.  Probably turns an already D+6 district (the most frigging Democratic PVI seat at the moment represented by a Republican in Congress!) probably into a district that voted for Obama in the mid 60s% and for Kerry around 60%.  Although actual numbers here will rest my case.

District 8 (purple) Bean-D vs. Walsh-R 64%W, 20%H, 9%A, 6%B

Tilts toward Bean now with the addition of Waukegan and a few Hispanic precincts in northern DuPage.  Adds the Republican part of Palatine back into the district, though.  And Bean lives in frigging Barrington.  At least the district contains no more of McHenry, though.  Without McHenry in the district in 2010, Bean would have won re-election.  I think the fact that Walsh is a wack-job, Obama is at the top of the ballot, and this is a better district for Bean will all result in this district flipping in 2012.

District 11 (indigo) VACANT designed for Halvorson-D 60%W, 20%H, 15%B

Kinzinger drawn into the 18th to duke it out with Aaron Schock, modeled after Halvorson’s old state senate seat which straddled the Will-southern Cook County area if I recall.  Modeled after the district of the 1990s actually but a bit more Democratic now than then so Halvorson should like this district quite nicely.

Northern Illinois more generally

District 6 (teal) Hulgren-R vs. Roskam-R vs. Biggert-R 80%W, 8%H, 7%A, 4%B

I bet you Biggert retires and Roskam and Hulgren try to out tea party the other.  Might leave an opening for a Melissa Bean kind of Democrat as this district – although drawn to be a Republican vote sink – still probably narrowly voted for Obama in 2008.  So it isn’t super-Republican.  Should be fun to watch.

District 14 (brown-green) VACANT but designed for a Foster comeback 61%W, 26%H, 9%B, 3%A

More firmly Democratic than yesterday’s version.  What a big difference adding Aurora makes.  In case you are wondering what the deal is about the tiny dip into DuPage is – two reasons.  First of all partisan redistricting tends to be a bit petty – for example the tiny finger going into Montgomery County, PA to come near Hoeffel’s house – I think I might have come very close to drawing Hultgren into here.  But more the point, it grabs a few carefully chosen Hispanic precincts.

District 16 (green) Manzullo-R vs. Schilling-R

Swoops around the 14th and takes all the rural Republican areas of northern Illinois out of that district and the 17th to the south.

District 17 (dark purple) VACANT possibly the Democratic Moline-based State Representative that was mentioned in the comments?

Very little different from yesterday’s version.

District 18 (yellow) Kinzinger-R vs. Schock-R

Who can out-glamour and out tea party the other?  Realistically if you are a cynical political operator out of Springfield (and who isn’t in this state of consummate political machine politicians – and I thought New York State was bad!), you will get rid of the one of the two greatest long-term threats to Dick Durbin in 2014 by pairing them together.  Either one of them would make formidable candidates in a toxic midterm in the 6th year of Obama’s possible two-term presidency.  Not that I think Durbin’s in any danger or doesn’t know how to get his hands dirty and win an election.  Just thinking about the long-term view.

Anyway, this is a rural heartland GOP vote sink now missing its juicy Democratic cities.

Downstate

District 15 (orange) Johnson-R but maybe not for long

Very similar to how I drew the seat yesterday.  I’d like to see Kerry numbers on this one, but I think the cities probably outvoted the Republican rural areas connecting them.  And even if not, it is better to try to capture one seat rather than than divide these cities into two districts and continue electing two Republican congressmen.

District 12 (medium blue) Costello-D

Very similar to yesterday’s version except I thought that Edwardsville, with its students, might be added to add a few more Democrats to the seat, and subtracted much of racist Union County.  The reason you need a tiny tendril down to Cairo is that the very tip of the state is about 30-35% black and reliably Democratic.  I live in this district, in uber-liberal Carbondale, where I teach in the history department at SIU.  Costello is so frigging safe that I figured he did not need my vote this year and voted Green to protest against his antics on the health care reform law earlier this year when he was one of the Stupak gang threatening to withhold votes needed to pass it.

District 13 (pink-red) Shimkus-R

As I said before, it pains me that I have to draw a vote-sink for Shimkus but there it is.  A devious possible alteration would be to throw Shimkus into the southern-central Illinois cities seat and draw more moderate Johnson into the vote-sink.  I guess it doesn’t really matter.

The Land of Lincoln is one of the few bright spots in an otherwise gloomy redistricting cycle.  Through Governor Quinn’s come-from-behind narrow reeelection victory, we have the trifecta in this state.  At the same time, the GOP elected five freshmen congressmen from Illinois, some in districts like the 17th, that have historically elected Democrats.  Before these congressmen can get situated, they will be put through the ringer of a partisan reapportionment.

Here are my basic assumptions in drawing this map:

1) As one of the few states where Democrats can make a big difference, Illinois Democrats will squeeze out as much seats as possible.  Realistically, Maryland will only net us one more seat (7-1 seems more realistic than 8-0) and in the other states we control like MA we actually will lose a seat.  Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan is an old-school Democratic pol; he knows a thing or two about screwing the Republicans and he will.  Unlike 10 years ago when Denny Hastert could deliver goodies to Chicago and thus needed to be placated, there is no reason to accommodate any Republicans, and there will be no accommodation.

2) A second Hispanic seat is almost inevitable, given the VRA and the explosive growth of the Latino population in Chicago.  But see #3.

3) As Madigan’s boy, Lipinski will be given another seat that he can win.  He will not be drawn out, which is more geographically logical, because he is Madigan’s boy.  Don’t know about Madigan and Quigley, but a Democrat is not going to sacrifice a seat here.  Instead, I drew Peter Roskam out of a seat; the 6th now joins the 4th as Chicago’s 2nd Hispanic seat.

4) Of the incumbent Democrats who got defeated in 2010, Debbie Halvorson will get the sweetest deal?  Why?  She’s a former majority leader (the #2 position in the caucus under Emil Jones) in the State Senate and thus in my view still has clout in Springfield.  Phil Hare will get a better seat.  And I drew a better seat for Foster to return to.  That leaves out Melissa Bean.  Oh well – not much of a Democrat is she?  

5) Partisan numbers: when the time comes for these to be uploaded, could you please put in the Kerry 2004 numbers if you are also going to do Obama numbers?  Obama got about what an average national Democrat would get below Springfield (home state advantage cancels out with the latent racism that I see every day living now in Southern Illinois among want-to-be southerners down here) but north of Springfield, particularly north of I-80, he got vote totals in Republican counties that no other national Democrat would have gotten.  No Democratic presidential candidate wins 55% of the vote in DuPage… I can see 47-50% nowadays as that county is becoming more moderate, but Obama PVI gives Democrats false assurance about redistricting.  Perhaps my map is one of those, I don’t know.  I did try to retain as much as possible of each Democratic congress person’s base in Chicago so that they would still be more than okay.

So it is hard to say for sure that all my districts will elect what I think they will elect.  But I think I’ve drawn a map that yields 14 reasonably safe Democratic seats (all the seats that string in and out of Chicago plus Jerry Costello’s 12th downstate and the newly configured 15th downstate cities seat), 1 swing seat (for Melissa Bean – the 8th), and 3 uber-Republican seats (the 16th, the 18th, and the 13th).  Following Illinois custom, the Biggert seat (the current 13th) got axed and its number migrated downstate to become Shimkus’s new seat number.

Chicagoland

District 1 (blue) Rush-D

50% Black, 41% white

Even though Rush has got a past with the Black Panthers, he should be all-right here.  One of the goals that any Democratic gerrymander of Illinois must achieve is the unpacking of enough Democratic voters from Chicago so that Debby Halvorson can win again (and I created a tailor-made new 11th district right below Jesse Jackson Jr.’s 2nd to make that happen.  Goes now into southern DuPage County and includes the home of soon-to-be ex-congresswoman Judy Biggert.

District 2 (dark green) Jackson, Jr.-D

50% Black, 40% white

Same story here as with the newly configured First Congressional District.  Removes Hispanic and white areas of South Chicago and its suburbs, which now go in the 11th to help Halvorson make a comeback to Congress, and snakes into Will County a bit and then up like a U to parts of DuPage.  If Jackson still nurses his statewide aspirations, this would be the perfect district for that.

District 3 (purple) Lipinski-D

White 65%, Hispanic 20%, Black 9%



Extends a bit further into suburban Cook County into areas once in the former 13th (so probably slightly lean Republican) but balances that off of black voters in south Chicago not needed by any of the 3 VRA protected districts.  Lipinski should be fine in any case.

District 4 (red) Randy Hultgren (R) but not for much longer!!

61% Hispanic, 28% White, 7% Black



I believe Gutierrez lives in my new 6th district and that this district contains more Mexicans rather than Puerto Ricans (but can a Chicagoan please correct me on this if I am wrong).  Don’t know whether this would pass VRA muster or not, but I see no reason why a Hispanic could not get elected from here even if his/her voters are not 61% Hispanic.  

To accommodate Lipinski for all the reasons spelled out above, and to help crack Peter Roskam and Randy Hultgren, this district now snakes all the way to Hispanic-Aurora.  Still no crazier than the current configurations of the 4th district.

District 5 (yellow) Quigley-D

69% White, 14% Hispanic

I believe the Du Page areas I added to this district, along with Elk Grove, are at worst 50-50.  With both Quigley and Schakowsky I tried to maintain as much as possible their Chicago bases of support while rejiggering a bit the suburban parts.

District 6 (teal) Gutierrez-D

56% Hispanic, 33% White, 4% Black

Also snakes a bit now into DuPage County.  I believe this is all-right with the VRA given that the district contains a lot of Puerto Ricans who are already citizens?  Please, a Chicago resident, correct me if I am grossly in error here.

District 7 (grey) Davis-D

50% Black, 37% White

Finishes the job of cracking Peter Roskam with throwing his key base, Wheaton, in a black-majority district.  Some of the 37% who are white, though, are white liberals out of Oak Park, so Davis will not face a problem here.

District 8 (purple) 50-50 rematch between Bean and Walsh, thinking that I’ve given Bean somewhat of a slight advantage here but am not sure

Grabs Waukegan and subtracts a bit in heavily-Republican McHenry.  I think I’ve given Bean a ticket back to Congress – especially when one considers that we are dealing with Governor Quinn, and thus a Democratic trifecta with redistricting, because State Senator Jim Brady- Tea Party got about 50k fewer votes than did Mark Kirk in the collar counties.  Joe Walsh is a one-term fluke; these Republicans are moderate and will probably cross over to vote for Obama and Bean in two years just as they did to reelect my governor when everyone said he was toast.  Could have gone the extra mile and grabbed Elgin but I wanted to make sure that the 14th was amenable to voting for a Democrat as well, so I did not.

District 9 (light blue) Schakowsky-D

Extends a bit further north into Republican-leaning Wheeling Township, but I made sure to keep enough of Evanston and the Lake Front of Chicago – her bases of support.  Look a Democratic gerrymander is going to have to unpack the black VRA seats and Schakowsky’s liberal bastion if it Schakowsky is going to be able to have a chance of voting for Speaker Pelosi again.  And I think Schakowsky knows that and will play along.

District 10 (pink) possibly now a Democrat wins?

Added about 100,000 new Chicago coast residents that make it practically impossible for Dolt to win reelection here.  One of the two really wonderful benefits of unpacking Democrats in Chicago a bit.

District 11 (light green) VACANT (tailor-designed for Halvorson-D)

Condenses to just Will County (minus 3 Republican townships in the 2nd) so Kinzinger is drawn out of the seat but… wait… this is Halvorson’s base.  Adds a finger of about 150,000 Cook County residents to the seat and… voila… I think I’ve just created a district that voted for Obama probably in the 60% range now.  I’d dare Kinzinger to try to win from here.

The rest of northern Illinois

District 14 (brown-green) VACANT

Built a district that connects slightly Republican-leaning Kane County (which it is, minus Aurora), slightly-Democratic DeKalb next door (because of NIU), and added what I imagine is heavily Democratic Rockford to the mix.  Looks compact and probably is enough Democratic to elect Bill Foster should he wish to run again.  This is the district that I want to test the most with Kerry 04 numbers, though.

District 16 (green) Kinzinger (R) vs. Manzullo (R) vs. Schilling (R)

Northern Illinois GOP vote sink.  Did the petty thing and drew all three Republican congressmen from this region into the same district, leaving the 17th and the 14th next door both vacant.

District 17 (purple) VACANT (Phil Hare-D?  or is there another Quad Cities Democrat who is more good at not losing his seat)

Quad Cities, Peoria (but not the part of Peoria that our glam-congressman lives in), snakes through mildly Democratic Bureau and LaSalle Counties to grab Kankakee.  Still looks a bit fugly, but in some ways is an improvement over the current district’s configurations.  Besides, no more ultra-Republican Quincy to muck up the works.

District 18 (yellow) Schock-R

Figure if you can’t get rid of this glamour-boy, straight out of central casting, and you really cannot, you might as well give him then a GOP vote sink so you can elect Democrat congressmen to the north and south.  This district now contains no major cities at all.

Southern Illinois

District 15 (orange) Johnson-R probably a Democrat wins now or after Johnson retires

The other district that I would like to have tested with Kerry numbers.  Connects Dansville, Urbana-Champaign, Normal-Bloomington, Decatur, and Springfield together in a reasonably-looking district.  Adds historically Democratic Montgomery County to the mix.  I think this district probably voted for Kerry, but I don’t know and Obama by a bit more.  Kerry didn’t do well in Southern Illinois.

District 12 (light blue) Costello-D

Changes very little, goes north into Macoupin and surrounding Democratic-leaning counties to make up for population loss.  This is my local congressman and about the only way to draw Southern Illinois nowadays to guarantee a Democrat in congress from that region.

District 13 (pink) Shimkus-R

Again, largely the same.  Goes a bit northward into where the old 15th was to enable the reconfiguration of that district into a district that will probably elect a Democrat now.  Shimkus is a scumbag, but realistically you need a Republican vote sink down here.

So, there you have it.  Is this something reasonably safe enough for a Democratic gerrymander?  Or did I just draw a dummymander?  Let me know.

This diary presents an 18-seat map for Illinois. Illinois is a particularly difficult state for me to get my head around politically, so in this diary I am  going to highlight a particular strategic approach to redistricting. I’m calling it “disincumbenting” — I don’t think I’ve encountered an existing term of  art anywhere that covers quite the same ground.

The basic idea of disincumbenting is to make the new districts as unlike the current districts as possible. Doing so reduces the value of incumbency (hence  the name) by reducing the number of constituents who are familiar with the incumbent representative.

Illinois strikes me as a particularly fertile environment for the technique, because the party out of power on the state level has a large number of  contiguous seats. The Democrats have unified control over the line-drawing. In the most recent election, they lost four outstate districts, resulting in the Republicans controlling every non-Cook-County-based district except for Jerry Costello’s 12th district in the far southwest. (The Republicans also control  the Cook-County-based 9th.) With so much adjacent territory under the control of the opposition party, it is fairly easy to draw new lines that wreak havoc  on the political bases of each incumbent.

As I said above, I find it difficult to get my head around Illinois’ politics. This is because recent elections have been so very unrepresentative. 2010 was a Republican wave year. 2008 was a Democratic one, compounded by Obama’s favored son status. Blagojevich’s election numbers are impacted by the presence of a  significant Green candidacy. And so on. I tried to design the new districts so as to maximize the number of “Democratic opportunity” districts outside of  Cook County as best I could, but these districts aren’t as numbers-based as I would like. I welcome any feedback from those who know Illinois better.

Aside from the goals of disincumbenting Republican incumbents and maximizing Democratic chances outstate, I had two other, inter-related goals: create a second Hispanic majority seat in cook County, thereby eliminating Lipinski’s district. In a previous diary, I had created a second Hispanic seat by (inadvertantly) messing with Quigley. Geoneb suggested that Lipinski should be the target instead, so here’s a plan that does that. These two goals have an unintended spillover effect of somewhat disincumbenting the Chicago Democratic representatives. If resistance from the Democratic incumbents proves too great, these two goals could be abandoned.

To demonstrate the disincumbenting strategy, in my district descriptions I’m making use of silverspring’s Territory Transfer Percentage (TTP), introduced here. TTP is the percentage of the new district’s population that was part of the old district. My impression is that Silverspring introduced it with the general intent of keeping TTPs relatively high. Because of the set of goals I applied to the creation of this map, I’m actually trying to keep TTPs low (at least in the Republican districts.)

Pictures and descriptions of the plan start after the jump.

Overview Map

Note that the 16th is (roughly speaking) the seat lost through reapportionment. I relocated it south to cover for the missing number 19.

Chicagoland Map

District-By-District

Given the strategy I’m following here, I’m presenting the old/new maps for each district. The pink outline is the old district. The green squiggles represent the new district.

Democratic Held Seats

My intention was that all of these seats would remain solidly Democratic. In the absence of sound numbers though, I’m slightly worried about the 9th. (And, I guess, the 12th — but I think I actually improved the 12th’s Democratic performance.)

District 1 — Bobby Rush (D)

VRA: B 53% W 35%

TTP: 49%

Rush’s district slides south somewhat, expanding into parts of what is currently the 2nd and 13th. I’m not sure if Rush still lives in this version of the district. Wikipedia says he used to represent the 2nd Ward. If he still lives there, it’s a relatively easy fix to swap some territory with the 2nd while keeping both majority African American.

District 2 — Jesse Jackson, Jr (D)

VRA: B 54% W 32% H 11%

TTP: 56%

Jackson’s district narrows slightly to expand significantly to the north and south. Again, I’m not sure if Jackson lives here, but his wife represents the 7th Ward, so I think he probably does.

District 3 — Open Seat (D)

VRA: H 52%, W 34%

TTP: 2%

[Update: Per sapelcovits in the comments, my description of the ethnic background for the 3rd and 4th are flipped. This is Guiterrez’s district. It’s the 4th that’s open.]

This was Lipinski’s district, now almost entirely relocated to become a second Hispanic majority district. (The old district is split roughly evenly between the new 4th and 7th, both of which are still majority-minority.) My understanding is that the Hispanic population here is largely Mexican, so voting participation rates might not be enough to elect a Hispanic representative.

District 4 — Luis Guiterrez (D)

VRA: H 58%, W 35%

TTP: 51%

Guiterrez’s seat now takes in only the southern half of his old district (along with a good part of the old 3rd). My understanding is that the Hispanic population here is largely Puerto Rican (and therefore US citizens), so this district should pass VRA muster.

District 5 — Mike Quigley (D)

VRA: W 68%, H 15%

TTP: 53%

Quigley’s seat shifts northwest on its western end, now taking in Des Plaines instead of Northlake. I believe he should still live in the district; if not, the territory swap needed to make it happen shouldn’t be too difficult.

District 7 — Danny Davis (D)

VRA: B 50% W 34% H 11%

TTP: 50%

Sadly one of the less informative old/new maps. You might need to refer back to Chicagoland overview. Davis’s seat lurches south radically as part of the dismemberment of the old 3rd. The 29th Ward that he used to represent is still in the district, so I assume he is too. If 50% is too low an African-American percentage, some territory swaps with the 1st and/or 2nd could probably be arranged.

District 9 — Jan Schakowsky (D)

VRA: W 62% H 15% A 14%

TTP: 60%

Schakowsky’s district stretchs significantly further west now. This is the only Democratic-held district I’m concerned about whether I weakened it significantly. Perhaps she and Quigley could swap Elk Grove for Des Plaines? (Is that even an improvement for her?)

District 12 — Jerry Costello (D)

VRA: W 80%, B 15%

TTP: 71%

Costello’s district shifts north, and in doing so becomes more Democratic (I think.) One danger: I’ve technically drawn Shimkus into this district, but I’m assuming he’d run in what is now the neighboring 16th. I don’t think Shimkus is a problem (71% TTP for Costello!), but if he is, he could be drawn into the 16th properly. But I’m guessing that would require decreasing the 12th’s Democratic performance.

Republican Held Seats

Now the fun begins! Republicans, please met your new districts.

I have no firm idea what the Democrat’s chances in any of these districts are. I’m hoping that disincumbenting the Chicago suburban Republicans will make them vulnerable. Outstate from Chicagoland, I think I created two new districts that are at least competitive for the Democrats.

District 6 — Judy Biggert (R) vs Randy Hultgren (R)

VRA: W 71% H 14% A 10%

TTP: 55%

While remaining DuPage-based, the 6th now pairs the residences of two incumbent Republicans — neither of whom are the incumbent in the 6th! Its upside-down U-shape is to keep incumbent Peter Roskam’s hometown of Wheaton out of the district. The listed TTP is if Roskam ran here anyway. If Biggert ran here, her TTP would be 34%; for Hultgren, 11%.

District 8 — Joe Walsh (R)

VRA: W 82%, H 11%

TTP: 35%

No longer stretching to Lake Michigan, Walsh’s seat now heads south into eastern Dekalb, western Kane, and Kendall Counties. Sadly, I suspect that this territory as at least as favorable to Walsh as his current one. Walsh would have nearly the same TTP if he ran in the new 10th at 30%. Representatives Manzullo and Hultgren would be at 28% and 29%, respectively, if they ran here — despite, you know, not living here.

As a side note, I believe Bean lives in my new 14th.

District 10 — Bob Dold (R)

VRA: W 67%, H 19%

TTP: 68%

The GOP district I most failed to disrupt. Any suggestions on what I can do with this?

District 11 — Don Manzullo (R) vs Adam Kinzinger (R)

VRA: W 86%

TTP: 46%

Contains parts of no fewer than 6 current districts. The TTP listed is for Kinzinger, the incumbent by district number and by largest TTP. Manzullo’s TTP is 28%. I’m pretty sure that this is a Republican vote sink. I do feel like I’m wasting LaSalle County, though, which I understand to be a reliable source of Democrats votes. Maybe there’s a better way to draw this vis-a-vis the 8th?

District 13 — Peter Roskam (R)

VRA: W 68%, H 15%, B 10%

TTP: 50%

Biggert’s old district now stretches from Wheaton to Joliet. She no longer lives here (Roskam does), but the TTP listed is hers. If Roskam run here, his TTP would only be 17%; Kinzinger would have a TTP of 34%.

District 14 — Open Seat (R?)

VRA: W 62%, H 25%

TTP: 61%

Compacts immensely — no longer stretching out towards the Quad Cities, it is now limited to eastern Kane and far northwestern Cook. This is technically an open seat, since Hultgren lives in the neighboring 6th, although the TTP is his. I believe that both Foster and Bean live in this district. Walsh would have a TTP of 23%. It’s not as disincumbented as I was hoping for — any suggestions?

District 15 — Tim Johnson (R)

VRA: W 83%, B 10%

TTP: 54%

Switches orientations from north-south to east-west, dropping rural areas to pick up Decatur and Springfield. The Springfield area seems to be unusually Republican-friendly for a state capital, so I don’t think this hurts him as much as might be hoped. Nonetheless, this is one of the three districts outstate that I consider a potential D pick-up. Schock’s TTP is 22%, Schilling’s is 17%.

District 16 — Open Seat (R)

VRA: W 93%

TTP:  60%

Entirely relocated from the northwest to the southeast, where it takes over for the reapportioned-away 19th. (This also results in no old/new picture, since the number changes — you’ll have to scroll up to the overview.) Although technically an open seat, I assume that Shimkus would run here; the TTP is his. Johnson’s TTP is 21%; Costello’s is 14%. The second of the downstate Republican vote sinks.

District 17 — Aaron Schock (R) vs Bobby Schilling (R)

VRA: W 78%, B 11%

TTP: 45%

Of the Republican-held seats, this is the one I most strongly suspect would flip Democratic under my plan. A succesor in spirit, if not in form, to the current 17th. It strings together Rockford, the Quad Cities, and Peoria. The TTP listed is actually Manzullo’s, who doesn’t live in the district. Schock’s TTP is 26%; Schilling’s is 25%.

District 18 — Open Seat (R)

VRA: W 91%

TTP: 38%

Drops Peoria County and the northern suburbs of Springfield to pick up Bloomington-Normal. This is my third and last Republican vote sink. The listed TTP is Schock, the closest this district (which covers parts of five current ones) comes to an incumbent. Schilling’s TTP is 32%; Johnson’s is 15%; Kinzinger’s is 14%.

Summary

With the caveat again that Illinois is a hard state for me to judge, I think that this map averages around a 12-6 Democratic advantage. Best case scenario: 15-3. Worse case scenario: 8-10 (ie, the status quo, minus one Republican from reapportionment.)

Again, the goals for this map were to demonstrate two things: a possible way to disincumbent the Republicans by making their districts as different as possible from the current set-up and a possible way to swap out Lipinski for a new Hispanic representative. I remain curious about what people who actually understand Illinois think about my plan.

This diary presents potential redistricting maps for Michigan, North Carolina, and Illinois. It also carries the ulterior motive of the following bleg:

I’ve started working on two related projects for Michigan for Dave’s App. I’m collating partisan data and renaming the voting districts by municipality name and precinct number. (Currently, Michigan’s voting districts are named using a 14 digit code.) I could use the following three forms of help:

1. I need a precinct map for the city of Detroit. This is looking ahead a bit, because Detroit is the final portion of the state I intend to work on, but it would really help. My Google-fu has failed me thus far.

2. In order to enable collaboration (see third form below), I need to figure out how to get the lines in my copy of vt26_d00.csv sorted by county and voting district number. The vt26_d00_data.csv file is already sorted like this, but its counterpart is somewhat helter-skelter. The solution that occured to me was to try sorting it using OpenOffice Calc (my only spreadsheet program), but that immediately lost leading zeroes, which breaks the CSV file. Any ideas out there?

3. Actual collaboration in collating and renaming. I’m currently going through the counties alphabetically. After two-ish weeks of sporadic effort, I just finished the H’s with Huron County. (On to Lansing’s Ingham County next!) That’s about 19% of the state population. Doing Flint’s Genessee County took most of the day yesterday, and I’m fairly frightened of Kent/Macomb/Oakland/Washtenaw/Wayne. Even if you’re just interested in helping with some of the smaller, easier counties, I’d be grateful. If you’re willing and interested, send me an email at my user name at gmail.com so that I can send you information about the conventions I’ve been using. Also, post a comment letting me know you emailed me — it’s a secondary email that I don’t otherwise check.

After the jump, you’ll see the following forms of actual content to assuage my conscience from this bleg:

Michigan: what my partisan map progress looks like so far and a potential Republican gerrymander (an abgin-esque atrocity by Michigan standards)

North Carolina: a Republican map that packs five Democratic incumbents into two districts

Illinois: an oxymoronic “good government” map of Illinois — I’m posting it mostly to show that two majority Hispanic districts in Chicago are easily created and to show off an particular idea for a reconfigured 17th district.

Michigan Partisan Progress So Far

Michigan Republican Gerrymander

Michigan redistricting law heavily discourages county and municipality splitting. This map probably looks tame by most states’ standards, but it’s basically an abgin-esque “finding the limits” map by ours.

The Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint CMSA

This map has its origins in a comment — I don’t recall which thread — that posited an I-75 district linking together Kildee and Peters. This is my attempt to make that district and show its consequences.

I started by painting in all of Genessee County (I really don’t think you can get away with having a district consisting of only portions of three different counties.) Then I painted in the bare minimum number of people to take in Saginaw City from Saginaw County — no GOP plan is going to saddle one of their representatives with Saginaw. Finally, I snaked down through Oakland County, taking heavily Democratic Pontiac and Peter’s home area of Bloomfield /Bloomfield Hills.  That, as it turns out, is a district. So I started working other districts around it.

End result: Peter’s 9th district has been eliminated by trisection. Its eastern third is now in Miller’s 10th, its central third is in Kildee’s 5th, its western third is in McCotter’s 11th.

I won’t dissect the districts in detail, but suffice it to say that I think this is a fairly successful Detroit-area map for the GOP. McCotter gets majorly shored-up (although he might at primary risk from an Oakland-based politican), Miller probably washes out in trading the Thumb for eastern Oakland, and Peters gets the short end of the reapportionment stick.

Taking a look statewide…

… there are some interesting repercussions, mostly favorable to the Republicans. Starting with one of the pieces of bad news, however, with the 5th and 10th sucked down into the Detroit area, the 4th is forced to cover the Thumb. Dave Camp becomes an incumbent in-name only, with only his home county of Midland and the western portion of Saginaw County overlapping between his current district and this one. I would guess that this district is at least as Republican as his current one, but I’m not entirely sure.

With the 4th swinging east, the 1st gets to pick up the Republican-leaning Traverse City area, mildly shoring up Benishek. The 2nd and 3rd also get pulled north by the 4th’s relocation. That, in turn, allows Upton to take in all of Republican Allegan County and Walberg to newly acquire heavily Republican Barry County — a significant upgrade for him that I’ve been otherwise unable to find. I’m genuinely unsure about how the changes to Roger’s 8th district pan out — he loses Republican northern Oakland, and gains some swingy territory in central Michigan along with fairly Republican (I think) Ionia County.

Summary: This map definitly eliminates a Democratic incumbent. I think it also shores up four Republican incumbents while severely inconveniencing another, with the effects on yet another being unknown.

North Carolina Republican Gerrymander

This map has its origins in SaoMagnifico’s recent Wyoming Rule diary on North Carolina. While composing a counter-suggestion to his proposed map, I discovered that there’s a significant African American population in and around Fayetteville. I’ve seen some insisting that this population could be linked with Raleigh’s to produce a new VRA-seat. My attempts at drawing that district while preserving the current 1st have failed, but it turned out to work well when linked with Charlotte’s African-American population instead.

This is a 7-4-2 Republican/Democratic/swing map.

A quick run-through:

The 1st district (blue) stays more or less in place. VRA: 49% black, 44% white (is this kosher?). 2008: Obama 62%, McCain 37%.

The 2nd district (green) shifts substantially west. Still contains all of Ellmer’s (and Etheridge’s) Harnett County. 2008: McCain 56%, Obama 43%.

The 3rd district (purple) now hugs the coast all the way down to (and including) Wilmington. Incumbent Jones is (barely) drawn outside the lines, but I’ve been told he’s outside the lines already. 2008: McCain 57%, Obama 42%.

The 4th district (red) packs Price and Miller into one uber-Democratic (majority-white) district. 2008: Obama 73%, McCain 26%.

The 5th district (yellow) continues to hug the northwest corner of the state. Foxx now lives in her district. 2008: McCain 60%, Obama 38%.

The 6th district (teal) shifts west. This is kind of like a bizzaro-12th, covering broadly similar territory between Charlotte and Greensboro, but with the intention of being a Republican district instead of an African-American gerrymander. Coble still lives here, I think. If not, he’s close. 2008: McCain 56%, Obama 43%.

The 7th district (grey) is still in the southeast corner of the state, reaching north into the eastern parts of the old 2nd — but it’s been reconfigured to exclude incumbent McIntyre. 2008: McCain 56%, Obama 43%.

The 8th district (slate blue) is the center-piece of this plan. It strings together all three of Watt, Kissell, and McIntyre into a minority-majority district. VRA: 41% black, 35% white, 13% Hispanic. 2008: Obama 66%, McCain 33%.

The 9th district (cyan) now lies exclusively east of Charlotte. So far as I know, Myrick still lives in the district. 2008: McCain 55%, Obama 44%.

The 10th district (magenta) pulls in closer to Charlotte. 2008: McCain 59%, Obama 40%.

The 11th district (lime) stays in place. 2008: McCain 52%, Obama 46%.

The 12th district (cornflower) is a (majority white) Democratic new open seat in the Triad. Effectively, the Republicans get rid of both of McIntyre and Kissell and replace them with a Triad-area Democrat. 2008: Obama 60%, McCain 38%.

The 13th district (salmon) is a swing(!) district surrounding the Triangle. 2008: McCain 50%, Obama 49%.

If not screwing with Shuler is something you can’t see the Republicans doing, here’s an area map for the changes necessary:

(Please ignore the 5th changing colors.]

New stats

5th:  56 Mc / 42 Ob

10th: 57 Mc / 42 Ob

11th: 58 Mc / 42 Ob

Illinois Good-Government Redistricting

This map was drawn to avoid splitting counties and muncipalities — an idea I support in the abstract if not necessarily in practice. I won’t go into detail at all about it, because I don’t feel like I understand Illinois well enough. But I wanted to draw attention to two features to see what people think who do understand Illinois politics. (The 11th and 16th — both green — can be hard to distinguish. DeKalb, LaSalle, and points east are in the 11th.)

Feature one: Here’s the VRA statistics for most of the Cook County districts.

1st (blue) — white 39%, black 53%

2nd (green) — white 26%, black 58%, Hispanic 10%

3rd (purple) — white 75%, Hispanic 16%

4th (red) — white 25%, black 12%, Hispanic 59%

5th (yellow) — white 32%, Hispanic 51%

7th (grey) — white 29%, black 53%, Hispanic 16%

9th (cyan) — white 66%, Asian 13%, Hispanic 12%

Actual census numbers may change this, of course, but 2 VRA Hispanic district seem possible with a miminum of fuss.

Feature two: Note district 17 [dark blue] in the whole-state map above. It links together the Quad Cities, Bloomington-Normal, and Champaign-Urbana. Is this a workable Democratic district?

If not — I’ve gotten the impression that Bloomington-Normal is fairly Republican for a mid-sized city — how about this, which substitutes in Decatur?

Redistricting will undoubtedly be a top – if not the top – topic around here over the next year or so. To get your engines started, here are a few early items from around the nation:

Indiana: Gov. Mitch Daniels released his list of legislative priorities for 2011, and it looks like he’s trying to burnish his bi-(or non-)partisan cred with this plank:

“Indiana must have a fair redistricting based on geographic and community of interest lines – not politics. And I’ll only sign one that meets that test.”

Daniels’ commitment will be seriously tested on this part of his platform, seeing as the GOP now controls both houses of the state lege (in addition to the governor’s mansion, of course). Incoming House speaker Brian Bosma also claims he’s a supporter of such reforms. We shall see.

Alabama: Meanwhile, down in Alabama, Republicans also control the trifecta – and seeing as it’s their first time, they’re licking their chops. As the Birmingham News puts it:

The likely result is a new congressional map that protects all six Republican congressmen and keeps intact the majority black district home to the only Democrat, according to U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Saks.

Here’s one stab at such a map. Can you do better?

Illinois: The upper hand is on the other foot in Illinois, one of the few redistricting bright spots for Dems. With Team Blue in charge of the trifecta here – and the Prairie State on track to lose a seat in reapportionment – the only question is which Republican freshman will get tossed in the woodchipper. Sadly, we have quite a few to pick from: Randy Hultgren, Adam Kinzinger, Bobby Schilling, Jim Walsh, and Bob Dold! But it’ll still be satisfying to see one of these guys get axed. (And if we’re really lucky, two of `em will get tossed into a single district together.)

New Jersey: For whatever reason, New Jersey chooses to be a freak state, holding its state-level elections in odd-numbered years. This is good news for horserace bloggers, but probably a pain in the ass for the folks in charge of drawing state lege district lines. They have to produce a map by Feb. 1 – which is barely a month after the Census Bureau will releases its state-level population data, and a month or so before they release redistricting-level data. In any event, I suggest you read the linked story, which details how Dems succeeded in getting a very favorable map ten years ago – circumstances which are unlikely to obtain this time around.

Dave’s Redistricting App: I realize there are quite a few new SSP members these days, so it’s possible not everyone is familiar with the awesome (and free!) Dave’s Redistricting App. It does exactly what it sounds like it ought to do – you can draw and re-draw maps to your heart’s content. The eponymous Dave often stops by in comments and with diaries of his own, in case you ever have questions. He’s also always looking for assistance in compiling partisan data for the app, so if you want to help improve the program, please click the link to find out how!

This is my first attempt at redistricting Illinois.  I drew this map assuming that Governor Pat Quinn wins re-election and Democrats control the redistricting trifecta.  SSPers know, of course, that Pat Quinn trails in the high single-digits in the most recent polls, so full Democratic control remains in doubt.  

Illinois is predicted to lose a congressional seat in 2012, going from 19 to 18 seats.  This necessitated the drawing together of two incumbents, Peter Roskam and Mike Quigley.  Illinois also currently has 4 VRA districts (3 African-American, 1 Hispanic) all based in the City of Chicago.  I preserved all 4 districts, and I felt that the sharp Hispanic growth required the creation of another majority Hispanic district.  Therefore, my map has 5 Minority-Majority districts.  

Chicago Area

District 1 (Golden Yellow) Pop. 716,433; 56% Black, 36% White, 6% Hispanic – Bobby Rush (D)

Located in the Heart of Chicago’s South Side, the 1st District remains mostly the same, except that it grows a bit in area and becomes dramatically less Black (formerly 65%, now 56%), but this is all a result of population loss in that area.  Still heavily Black and strongly Democratic. Obama ~ 80% – 85%

District 2 (Dark Blue) Pop. 719,391; 55% Black, 32% White, 12% Hispanic – Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D)

The South Side’s other Majority Black district, the 2nd also stays mostly the same, but expands in area and becomes a bit less Black.  It takes in some of the Cook County portion of Judy Biggert’s current district, but still remains the most Democratic district in Illinois.  Obama ~ 85% – 90%

District 3 (Red) Pop. 712,342; 63% Hispanic, 29% White, 5% Black – OPEN (D)

Unlike most of the other ethnic groups in the city, Chicago’s Hispanic population is growing rapidly.  Currently there is only one Majority Hispanic district in Illinois, represented by Luis Gutierrez. The rapid growth, as well as the large distance between the two main Latino enclaves, led me to create two Hispanic majority districts.  The 3rd, located on the South and West sides of the City and including Cicero, Berwyn, and Burbank, is predominantly Mexican.  Gutierrez, this area’s current Congressman, is Puerto Rican and lives on the North Side.  The split will allow the Mexican Community to have it’s own voice in Congress.

Obama ~ 70% – 75%

District 4 (Turquoise Blue) Pop. 716,176; 57% Hispanic, 30% White, 5% Black – Luis Gutierrez (D)

This is Chicago’s second majority Hispanic District.  It is primarily Puerto Rican and is located just North and West of the Loop.  It is reasonably compact (much better than the previous 4th, at least) and includes Rep. Gutierrez’s home.  He would likely be very happy with this district.  It remains strongly Democratic. Obama ~ 70% – 75%

District 5 (Purple) Pop. 718,061; 74% White, 14% Hispanic, 8% Asian – Mike Quigley (D) + Peter Roskam (R)

The new 5th District draws together two relatively new Congressman, Democrat Mike Quigley of Chicago and Republican Peter Roskam of DuPage County.  Roskam’s District was very evenly divided when he won his first term in 2006, but in 2008 it gave President Obama 56% of the vote.  The addition of strongly Democrat-leaning parts of Northern Chicago makes the 5th a likely to safe Democrat district, and Quigley should beat Roskam fairly easily.  Obama ~ 60% – 65%

District 6 (Gray) Pop. 718,677; 54% Black, 35% White, 5% Hispanic – Danny Davis (D)

Danny Davis’s District bled population over the last decade, and therefore had to increase dramatically in size.  It is the last of Chicago’s 3 majority Black districts, and it stretches from Downtown/The Loop out to the Cook County – DuPage County border, and South to include more conservative suburbs formerly represented by Dan Lipinski.  At 54% Black, it is still strongly Democratic.  Obama ~ 80% – 85%

District 7 (Pink) Pop. 720,868; 64% White, 13% Asian, 13% Hispanic – Jan Schakowsky (D)

This new district takes up much of North Chicago along the lakeshore, including Lakeview, the Midwest’s largest gay district.  Much of this area was formerly in Mike Quigley’s district, but will probably be happier with a strong Liberal like Schakowsky.  It also includes her home in Evanston, some North-Western suburbs like Des Plaines and Park Ridge, and other Democrat leaning areas north of the city.  It should be safely Democratic.  Obama ~ 70% – 75%

Collar Counties/Chicago Exurbs

District 8 (Violet/Purplish Blue) Pop. 718,040; 74% White, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian – Melissa Bean (D)

Covers a similar territory to Bean’s old district, but now takes in more of Lake and Cook Counties and much less of McHenry County.  Moves closer to Chicago, so I would guess that it becomes somewhat more Democratic.  Likely still a narrowly Dem-leaning swing district.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 9  (Bright Green) Pop. 715,049; 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 10% Asian – Dan Seals (D) or Bob Dold (R)

Mark Kirk’s elusive North Shore district moves a little more into Cook County, and becomes 15% less White in the process (going from 81% to 66%).  It now includes Dan Seals’ home in Willmette, as well as Highland Park, Lake Forest, and Waukegan in Lake County.  If Dan Seals doesn’t win this district in 2010, another Democrat will in 2012.  Obama ~ 65% – 70%

District 10  (Tan) Pop. 712,389; 73% White, 11% Hispanic, 9% Asian – Judy Biggert (R) + Dan Lipinski (D)

This district strongly resembles Judy Biggert’s old 13th, but it was drawn with ConservaDem Dan Lipinski in mind.  It includes a portion of his old urban-suburban district, as well as parts of Will and DuPage counties, centered mainly around Naperville.  If faced with a Lipinski matchup in 2012, Biggert would probably opt to retire, but if not, or if Republicans can manage to find a moderate State legislator to run, Republicans could hold this district.  But Lipinski, a social-conservative who is already well known in the area, would have a significant chance of winning here.  Obama ~ 50% – 55%

District 11 (Olive Green) Pop. 718,631; 66% White, 24% Hispanic, 6% Black – Bill Foster (D) OR Randy Hultgren (R)

One of the few Districts in Illinois that has been experiencing steady growth over the past decade, Bill Foster’s district had to shed it’s Western rural counties, but is still centered around Kane, Kendall, and Dekalb Counties.  It includes the fast growing, Democrat-leaning, minority-majority city of Aurora, as well as Geneva, Elgin, and DeKalb. Becomes slightly more Democratic, which should help Foster out, though the district is already trending blue.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

Rural Illinois

District 12 (Dark Green) Pop. 712,202; 80% White, 11% Hispanic, 6% Black – Don Manzullo (R)

Manzullo’s district stays mostly the same (centered around Rockford), but loses rural Carrol, Ogle, and Whiteside Counties in exchange for almost all of McHenry.  Maybe moves slightly left, but not drastically, and not enough to dislodge Manzullo.  Obama ~ 50% – 55%

District 13 (Periwinkle Blue)  Pop. 719,998; 76% White, 12% Hispanic, 9% Black – Debbie Halvorson (D) OR Adam Kizinger (R)

The 14th takes in all of Kankakee County, most of Will County, and most of LaSalle County.  It loses the strange shaped arm that stretched South into McLean County and becomes much more compact.  Minority growth in the Joliet area makes this district a bit more Democratic, and should be a Democratic hold in a neutral year.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 14 (Sky Blue) Pop. 717,188; 90% White, 4% Hispanic, 3% Black – Aaron Schock (R)

I had to draw Aaron Schock’s home in Peoria out of his district and into Phil Hare’s but in exchange I gave him a district that is a bit more Republican.  It streches South from the Iowa border to strongly Republican Tazewell County, then to the Springfield area, and finally West to include all of McLean County.  Should be safely Republican.  Obama ~ 45%

District 15 (Orange) Pop. 717,498; 88% White, 6% Black, 3% Hispanic – Timothy Johnson (R)

Stays almost exactly the same, covers the same area along the Indiana border and leans strongly Republican.  Obama ~ 45% – 50%

District 16 (Dark Purple)  Pop. 716,746; 83% White, 9% Black, 4% Hispanic – Phil Hare (D)  

This district is now much more compact than it used to be. It includes the Illinois portion of the Quad Cities, Peoria, and a small portion of Springfield, as well as a large swath of rural farming counties along the Iowa border.  Should be safe for Hare, though the area is trending Republican.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 17 (Green) Pop. 717,602; 81% White, 15% Black, 2% Hispanic – Jerry Costello (D)

I tried to shore up Costello’s district as much as possible, but it’s still more or less the same.  It loses some of it’s far Southern counties along the Kentucky border that have been trending Republican, and gains Macoupin and Montgomery Counties, both of which were won by Obama. Still, the needle doesn’t move too much.  Obama ~ 55%

District 18 (Yellow) Pop. 711,505 89% White, 7% Black, 2% Hispanic – John Shimkus (R)

Still the most Republican district in Illinois, Shimkus’s doesn’t change much.  It’s hard to believe this district was once represented by Dick Durbin.  Obama ~ 40% – 45%

Here is my best guess at where the races in Illinois stand. Let me know what you think.

Senate-

Candidates: Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs Mark Kirk (R)

Current Rating- Toss Up

A few weeks ago, this race was probably at Leans Republican, but after it was revealed Kirk “misremembered” parts of his military and teaching careers and exaggerated some of his claims, Giannoulias has pulled even in the most recent Rasmussen poll. It really is a shame Democrats nominated Giannoulias; if Madigan, Schakowsky, or Gutierrez would have ran they would be beating Kirk by at least high single digits. As with most close Illinois races, this seat will probably hinge on moderate suburban voters in DuPage, Lake, and Will counties, and Giannoulias will have to hope for high turnout in Cook County.

Governor

Candidates: Gov. Pat Quinn (D- Inc) vs Bill Brady (R)

Current Rating- Toss Up/Tilt Republican

Yes Governor Quinn is that unpopular. Bill Brady is a downstate, very conservative Republican who has no business being competitive in a state like Illinois. But Quinn, who took over for disgraced former Governor Blagojevich in 2008, has been forced to deal with a huge budget deficit, and his combination of proposed tax increases and cuts to social services has angered just about everyone in Illinois. Brady will rack up huge margins downstate and in the suburban collar counties, the question will be, does Quinn have enough votes in Cook County to drag him across the finish? Right now it doesn’t look good.

Secretary of State-

Candidates: Jesse White (D-Inc) vs Robert Enriquez (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

White is a popular incumbent who has been the SoS since 1998; Enriquez is largely unknown to the Illinois electorate.

Attorney General-

Candidates: Lisa Madigan (D-Inc) vs Steve Kim (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Madigan is the most popular politician in Illinois who will have no trouble against Kim. Had she ran for Governor or Senate, she would have been the overwhelming favorite.

Comptroller-

Candidates: David Miller (D) vs Judy Baar Topinka (R)

Current Rating- Lean Rep

The Comptroller’s position was vacated when Dan Hynes ran for the Democratic nomination for Governor against Quinn and lost by a few thousand votes. David Miller is a former state rep from the South Side of Chicago. He is a good candidate, but Baar-Topinka’s superior name recognition from her ’06 run for Governor currently makes her a slight favorite.

State Treasurer-

Candidates: Robin Kelly (D) vs Dan Rutherford (R)

Current Rating- Toss Up

This is a hard race to handicap. Kelly faced a tough primary against Justin Oberman and won, but her connection to the unpopular Giannoulias (she served as his chief of staff) was used against her in the primary. Rutherford is a former state senator who has raised over 1 million dollars, and should provide and tough challenge to Kelly.

House Seats

District 1

Candidate: Bobby Rush (D- Inc)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Rush is safe in this heavily African-American district.

District 2

Candidates: Jesse Jackson Jr. (D- Inc) vs Isaac Hayes (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Despite some ethical challenges surrounding Jackson and his connection to Blagojevich and the selling of Obama’s old senate seat, Jackson is safe.

District 3

Candidates: Dan Lipinski (D-Inc) vs Michael Bendas (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Oh how I would love a primary challenge to the Conservadem Lipinski. It was widely suspected Lipinski’s father gave up his seat to the diabetic Lipinski so that he could receive health insurance afforded to members of Congress. Lipinski then voted “no” earlier this year on the second round of health care reform. He is safe in this Southwest Chicago district, though.

District 4

Candidate: Luis Gutierrez (D-Inc)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Gutierrez is one of my favorite members of Congress. He is a true fighter for immigration reform and will likely be in the House for many years to come. I would love to see him as a senator one day.

District 5

Candidates: Mike Quigley (D-Inc) vs David Ratowitz (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Quigley took over for Rahm Emanuel when he left to become Obama’s Chief of Staff. Quigley is safe in this heavy Dem district.

District 6

Candidates: Ben Lowe (D) vs Peter Roskam (R-Inc)

Current Rating- Safe Rep

Roskam barely won this seat in a special election in 2006 over Tammy Duckworth, who now serves in the Department of Veterans Affairs. Democrats thought they had a top-level challenger last year in Jill Morganthaler, but she lost to Roskam by 16 percent. This is a district with an Even Cook PVI, but Lowe has no chance this year.

District 7 (My District!)

Candidates: Danny Davis (D-Inc) vs Mark Weiman (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Davis is safe in this D+35 district.

District 8

Candidates: Melissa Bean (D-Inc) vs Joe Walsh (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Republicans in Illinois had this seat listed as a potential takeover, that is, until they nominated a candidate. Walsh’s campaign imploded in early May as his former campaign manager and other high-level staffers resigned the campaign and sent out press releases questioning Walsh’s finances and his ethics. Bean is a prolific fundraiser and skilled politician who will win reelection.

District 9

Candidates: Jan Schakowsky (D-Inc) vs Joel Pollak (R)

Current Rating: Safe Dem

Schakowsky is safe in this district that gave Barack Obama 72 percent of the vote in 2008.

District 10

Candidates: Dan Seals (D) vs Bob Dold (R)

Current Rating: Toss Up\ Tilt Dem

This district is being vacated as Mark Kirk runs for Senate. Seals ran in ’06 and ’08 but Kirk won both times by around 6 percent. Republicans did the Democrats a big favor here by nominating the more conservative Dold over the more moderate state rep Elizabeth Coulson. Coulson had some high profile endorsements from former Gov. Jim Edgar, most of Illinois’ Republican Congressional delegation, and Judy Baar Topinka, and her defeat in the February primary really helped Seals. Despite the leanings of this cycle, Seal’s high name recognition tilts this race in the Dems favor.

District 11

Candidates: Debbie Halverson (D-Inc) vs Adam Kinzinger (R)

Current Rating: Lean Dem

Republicans nominated a solid candidate in Kinzinger, an Iraq war veteran. However, Halverson has a serious cash advantage (she had 1.3 million in the bank in March) and she should be able to win in what will still be a tough fight.

District 12

Candidates: Jerry Costello (D-Inc) vs Teri Davis Newman (R)

Current Rating: Safe Dem

This is only a D+3 district, but Costello shouldn’t have much trouble holding onto the seat he has held since 1988.

District 13

Candidates: Scott Harper (D) vs Judy Biggert (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

This district voted for Obama by 8 points, but Biggert will most likely win big against ’08 nominee Harper. This district is trending towards the Democrats, but this cycle will be too difficult for Harper to make a serious run at winning.

District 14

Candidates: Bill Foster (D-Inc) vs Randy Hultgren (R)

Current Rating: Toss Up

Bill Foster has held this seat since March of 2008, when he defeated businessman Jim Oberweis in a special election, and then again in the general. This is an R+1 district, and Hultgren was a surprise nominee defeating former Speaker of the House Dennis Haster’s son, Ethan, in the February primary. An internal poll from Hultgren in May showed him beating foster 45-44 percent, but I would guess Foster is probably up by a few points right now.

District 15

Candidates: David Gill (D) vs Tim Johnson (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

Johnson will have no problems in this district that voted for McCain by two points in ’08.

District 16

Candidates: George Gaulrapp (D) vs Donald Manzullo (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

This district is trending Democratic, but Manzullo is entrenched and will easily win reelection.

District 17

Candidates: Phil Hare (D-Inc) vs Bobby Schilling (R)

Current Rating: Likely Dem

Hare has represented this D+3 district since 2006. No polling has been conducted here, but I’m fairly certain Hare will have minimal problems in November.

District 18

Candidates: D.K. Hirner (D) vs Aaron Schock (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

Schock is fairly popular in this district, and he will prevail over the little-known Hirner.

District 19

Candidates: Tim Bagwell (D) vs John Shimkus (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

This is the most Republican district in Illinois, and Shimkus will easily be reelected in Novemeber.

CA-Sen: Barack Obama will attend a joint fundraiser for the DNC and Barbara Boxer’s re-election campaign in April. More details on the event are not yet available, but I’m guessing it won’t take place on a blimp.

KY-Sen: Mmm, I could eat cat fud for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. The Politico has a new piece on the increasing panic among Kentucky and DC establishment Republicans over the possibility that Rand Paul may win the Senate primary against Mitch McConnell’s protege Trey Grayson. Dick Cheney’s inner circle is apparently sounding the alarm bells in private emails to neo-con leaders, warning that “Rand Paul is NOT one of us”. It’s funny, because that’s exactly why he’s winning!

PA-Gov: Democrat Dan Onorato has abruptly reversed course on his challenge to Joe Hoeffel’s ballot signatures. Onorato’s stated reasons for pulling the plug on the challenge can only be described as oblique.

CO-04: State GOP Rep. Cory Gardner got a double-dose of good news this week. Not only did he convincingly win the GOP precinct caucuses on Tuesday night, but his teabaggish primary challenger, ex-Ft. Collins Councilor Diggs Brown, dropped out of the race and endorsed him.

MI-01: The National Organization for Women says that it will mobilize its Michigan chapters to support Dem Rep. Bart Stupak’s primary challenger, Charlevoix County Commissioner Connie Saltonstall. NOW President Terry O’Neill says that defeating Stupak will be her organization’s “highest priority”.

NY-29: The 29th District’s eight county Democratic chairs plan to meet on either March 27 or 29 to interview at least six potential candidates who are interested in running in the still-to-be-scheduled special election to replace disgraced ex-Rep. Eric Massa. If they follow the same script used last year in the special election to replace Kirsten Gillibrand, the final selection should come almost immediately after the interview process.

PA-12: I don’t know what it is about this district that has attracted so many fly by night pollsters in recent years, but a new automated polling group, We Ask America, has emerged to cough up a survey showing Democrat Mark Critz ahead of Republican Tim Burns by a 39-35 margin. UPDATE: We Ask America COO Gregg Durham writes in:

While our polling operation is only entering its 5th year, the principals of our firm have each been involved in political polling for nearly three decades. Since our founding, We Ask America has been conducting private polls for clients ranging from gubernatorial, congressional and state-level candidates, as well as large national trade associations and private businesses. We call an average of four million household a year through the U.S. In addition, we also perform many live interview polls as well.

The decision to enter the public-polling arena was made only after we experienced a great deal of success privately. We fully understand that taking a more public stance will require time and quality work to earn a reputation as a reliable voice in the public polling industry.

PA-15: Joe Biden is planning on sharing some of his own Joementum on the campaign trail soon, with an upcoming event planned for Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan.

Primaries: After record low turnout in the state’s most recent round of primary elections (not to mention the Scott Lee Cohen debacle), Illinois lawmakers have moved the state’s primary back to the third week of March.

Passings: It is with great sadness that we mourn the loss of rock legend Alex Chilton, whose fractured style of pop will forever remain the soundtrack of SSP.

This is the first part of a series of posts analyzing competitive Senate elections in blue states. The second part, which analyzes New York, can be found here.

Illinois

In November 2010, Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias will face off against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, in what looks to be a competitive Senate race. A heavily blue state, Democrats have been hurt by a bad national environment coupled with continuing fall-out from the Rod Blagojevich scandals.

Out of the three states being analyzed (the other two being California and New York), Illinois is the state in which Republicans are strongest. Out of the three, it is also the state with the most competitive forthcoming election. This post will analyze the political contours of the state, and the long and difficult path Mr. Kirk must tread for victory.

With respect to demographics, Illinois is structured very simply. It has three parts: Chicago, its suburban metropolis, and the mostly rural downstate.

To win, Congressman Mark Kirk will need to run a gauntlet of challenges in each of section of the state. He must capitalize on Republican strength downstate, revive it in the suburbs, and hope that Chicago turn-out is depressed. If done properly, this will result in a close-run, Scott-Brown type victory.

More below.

Downstate Illinois

Mr. Kirk’s easiest task should be here.  Much of downstate Illinois has more in common with Kentucky and Missouri than far-north Chicago. Like these two states, the region has been trending Republican: Bill Clinton did far better than Barack Obama here.

There are several complicating factors. Downstate Illinois has several population centers – but these cities tend to vote less Republican (they all voted for Obama, for instance). Moreover, Mr. Kirk hails from the Chicago metropolis and has a reputation as a moderate congressman; he may not play too well with rural conservatives.

Nevertheless, the region constitutes the Republican base, and Mr. Kirk will need every vote he can get. He should be able to win downstate Illinois quite comfortably. He will have to. After all, President George W. Bush won practically every single county here – and he lost Illinois by double-digits.

Chicago’s Suburbs

The true test of Mark Kirk’s candidacy will come in the Chicago suburbs. His task is doable, but not exactly easy.

There is good news and bad news for Republicans. First the good news: unlike other solidly blue states, the Chicago suburbs still vote Republican. Like Orange County, for years their strength kept Republicans competitive in Illinois. Take a look at suburban DuPage County:

(Note: A negative margin indicates that Democrats lost Cook County, or that Republicans lost DuPage County.)

Even after Democrats started winning suburbs, during President Bill Clinton’s time, Chicago’s suburbs continued voting Republican. In 2004, for instance, George Bush won DuPage county by a little less than 10%.

The bad news for Republicans is that each election, they win the suburbs by a little less. In 2008 President Barack Obama swept DuPage County and the rest of Chicago’s suburbs by double-digits. This victory constituted the culmulation of decades of leftward movement.

The test for Mr. Kirk is the extent to which he can reverse this trend. He will not just have to win the suburbs, but turn the clock back two decades – back to the glory years in which Republicans won around 70% of the vote in DuPage County. (Mr. Kirk will probably not have to do that well, given rising Republican strength downstate.)

Is this doable? Given that Republicans seem to be winning suburbs everywhere this year, it is certainly possible. Mr. Kirk, moreover, has spent a decade representing a Chicago suburb congressional district; this is why Republicans have nominated him.

Chicago

43.3% of Illinois residents live in Cook County, home to America’s third-largest city. Of these, half call Chicago home; the other half live in an inner ring of suburbs.

If God decided to create the ideal Democratic stronghold, he would get something like Chicago. The city is heavily populated by black and Latino minorities, mixed together with a dollop of white liberals. As a cherry on top, it is also home to President Barack Obama – and Chicagoans are highly aware of this fact.

Whether he loses or wins by a landslide, Mark Kirk will not win Cook County. He will just have to take the blow, cross his fingers, and pray that minority turn-out is low (as it has been, this year). That is not a good strategy, but it is the best Republicans can do when 89% of them are white, and they are competing in a minority-majority city.

Conclusions

So what does Mr. Kirk have to do? Say that he gets 35% of the vote in Cook County – propelled by inner-ring suburban strength and minority apathy – and wins a landslide everywhere else in the state (for instance, a 3:2 margin). This gives him 50.3% of the vote in the 2008 Illinois electorate. If white Republicans downstate turn out, and minorities in Chicago do not, Mr. Kirk may get bumped up to a 2-3% victory.

As we will see, this task is easier compared to the challenges Republicans face in California and New York. In Illinois they can (barely) get away with a white-only coalition. In California Republicans absolutely must win minorities – a novel challenge. As for New York – it is similar to Illinois, except that New York City is double the size of Chicago. And upstate New York is trending Democratic.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/