Tag: 2012

Everyone says Georgia can’t eliminate John Barrow, but I don’t really see why not.  His district isn’t VRA Protected like Sanford Bishop, so far as I know. And anyways, 4 out of 14 VRA for Georgia is better than, say, 1 out of 7 in Alabama.  

Here’s my take:

Chatham Co. only gave Obama a margin of 15,000 votes, and if you add in the two suburban counties, it is only 50-50.  That plus all the GOP rural areas combine Barrow and Kingston into a Lean/Likely GOP district. (Light Blue) 60% White

from the 51% White Barrow’s current district is

Sanford Bishop (Green) gets a 46% White district, a slight improvement.  He adds Macon, making GA-8 completely safe for Austin Scott (periwinkle), who gets a 65% White district.  

The new 1st district (Dark Blue) is 66% White and fit for someone like St. Sen John Bulloch or St Sen Jeff Chapman, who ran for Governor in 2010.

The 4th, 5th, and 13th remain similar

Phil Gingrey’s district is eliminated, but since he is pushing 70, he’ll probably just retire.

Tom Price’s 6th (Teal) isn’t going blue anytime soon.  It could be a problem around 2020, though, but the new redistricting will be approaching by then.

Rob Woodall’s 7th (Gray) has to shed quite a bit of population, now being 63% White and nearly all in Gwinnett County.  This is the district I’d worry about most going Blue in the decade, particularly if the White percentage keeps dropping.  The 22% who are Hispanic or Asian is a wild card, as many don’t vote, at least not yet.

The New 11th (Green) is 60% White, with 10% the Hispanic/Asian wild cards.  Somehow, I can find no veteran State Senators from the district, so I’m not sure about the bench.  It’s mostly suburban Republicans, though.

Westmoreland’s purple 3rd is still safe for him, as are Graves’ 9th (Northwest) and Broun’s 10th (Northeast).  

On the east side, including Augusta, is the other open seat, the new 14th.

Now on to Washington, and their bipartisan incumbent protection map.

There it is.  

And the Seattle area is here:

In Eastern Washington, the two swing counties, Whitman and Spokane, are split up.  That’s the only big difference.  McMorris Rodgers (Yellow) and Hastings (Red) are safe.  Herrera Beutler (Purple) now has to extend a bit further East, as it loses Longview, Pacific Co., and Olympia, making it much safer for her, probably going from Toss-Up to Lean R.  

Dicks’ 6th (West), which needs to be made a bit safer for when he retires, as the Western lumber counties are trending a bit away from us, adds Pacific Co., Longview, and Olympia from the 3rd, loses some of S. Kitsap Co., as well as Central Tacoma, and remains a swingy Tilt D district.  

Reichert’s 8th (Purple) gets much bigger, losing the Microsoft Area to the new 10th (Pink) and taking up nearly all of the non-Coastal Northern Coast Counties from Larsen, making his Green 2nd a bit safer in the process (he nearly lost this year).  This means Larsen needs to take up more Suburbs, making Inslee (Blue) take a bit of Seattle, moving McDermott (Gray) into some low-income suburbs as well as Seattle, and making Adam Smith, the new Armed Services chair, in light blue, take in the AFB and Army Base, as well as all of Tacoma.

We need to gain 25 seats in order to retake the House of Representatives.  It should also be stated clearly that the best possible chance we will have to re-take a House majority is in 2012. Presidential Year demographics skew in our favor and Presidential percentage of the vote matches House percentage near perfectly.[Obviously if we lose the White House we didn’t retake Congress]

It is  true that our attention appears to be on what will happen in the next Congress but remember over the next two years there are only two realistic options, compromise or gridlock, It is easier to prefer grid lock, but however we got to this very unfortunate situation we have to focus on getting out. If you don’t like comprise, we can put Nancy Pelosi back in the Speaker’s office and she is an excellent check on compromise.

However to do this all of us have to attempt to be on the same page, and as importantly learn the rules that can aid us in this endeavor.  With that understanding I present the 25 rules to gain 25 Seats. First the list followed by the explanation.

1. All Republicans are every Republican.

2. Ignore incumbency.

3. Candidates matter less than you think.

4. How a member votes in Congress matters less than you think.

5. Run where the water is warm.

6. Fund all candidates in warm water.

7. Be wary of cold water.

8. Be wary of reruns.

9. Persuasion is overrated.

10. Start with the base and work out.

11. Remember who the base is.

12. Partisan performance is two numbers, Obama 08 high/Kerry 04 low

13. Don’t under challenge.

14. Look for ethical weaknesses but don’t over rely on them.

15. Remember and reinvent field.

16. Being a House Republican shouldn’t be fun.

17. Use new media to expand who can help your campaign.

18. Let candidates be themselves.

19. Run with the President where it is wise, be careful where it is not.

20.  If you can’t use any National Democrats, you probably can’t win.

21. Make sure to run with Local Candidates.

22. Peopleraise while you fundraise.

23. Know your vote Goal

24. The last votes are in ideas you haven’t thought of yet.

25. Start now

1. All Republicans are every Republican

  This is the most important rule of all.  The Republicans in general, but House Republicans in particular, say an incredible number of ridiculous, incendiary things. In fact since taking office if you are keeping track at home they have had at least one such event every week.  Whether it is through blogs, MSNBC, and definitely earned media  and possibly paid media,  these comments can not escape scrutiny.  House Republicans like  Jim Gerlach in PA 6 and Dave Reichert in WA 8 should be forced to defend the Bachmann’s and the  Barton’s on a constant basis. Since Republicans beat us over the head with  being “Pelosi “Democrats, they must become the Bachmann Republicans.

2. Ignore Incumbency.

       This is probably the most radical thing in this memo and yet it is absolutely essential for Democrats to gain and then hold a majority. We need to radically throw out the notion of incumbency being an important factor in making decision about where to defend and where to attack.  National issues have overwhelmed how hard a member of Congress may work , and how much his or her office does  in the district. Districts  now reach  over 700,000, the incumbent advantages is shrinking.  Now Incumbent re-election rates still continued to be very high but in many ways  these Incumbent re-election rates are in fact becoming partisan election rates.  Put another way, it is not surprising incumbent Democrats and Republicans win in districts which by their nature[Such as Performance in last three Presidential Elections] elected Democrats or Republicans, once you take those districts out, Re-election rates begin to drop dramatically. Even if the Incumbency factor matters, there simply won’t be enough seats available if we act like it does. We must ignore incumbency in order to win the seats we need.

3. Candidates Matter less than you think.

     This is another somewhat paradoxical statement that  happens to be true.  Those of us deeply immersed in politics have come to believe that recruiting good candidates is essential to the process and it is. But often times the expectations we have are too high and when they aren’t met there is unfortunate tendency to believe candidates who don’t meet up to our standards can’t win. This is true from both a DCCC and a blogosphere perspective.  The truth is that  mediocre candidates win and sometimes great candidates lose.  That was true in 2006 and it was true in 2010.  As importantly for setting our goal of retaking the house in 2012 there were many near misses across a number of races in both 06 and 10.  In many cases these near misses came about because there was either doubt or neglect shown our candidate or theirs. Without that doubt or neglect there would have been additional Democratic members of Congress. We can not allow doubt or neglected to cost even one seat in 2012.

4. How a member votes in Congress matters less than you think.

    The details of how a Member of Congress votes doesn’t matter much when compared to the bills that actually pass. This lesson was made abundantly clear in 2010, maybe a member here or there saved themselves with a no vote on Healthcare but in general what passes or doesn’t pass is what matters not how an individual votes. Votes are in the mood toward collective punishment and this is an important lesson because you can punish  any member for the consequences of house votes, and the consequences for voting with your party are mostly minimal since you will be blamed for what happens regardless.  This means in general the right thing to do for a member of congress is to worry far less about the political ramifications of  particular votes because bigger factors will triumph over them.

5.  Run where the water is warm.

        This violates a sacred 2006 Dean strategy but it is a necessity. It is of the utmost importance that we field strong Democratic house candidates in the districts that   President Obama won in 2008 which are now represented by Republicans the number will likely shake out to somewhere around 50 seats.  It is much more important to run candidates in these 40 seats then it is to run candidates in all 435 districts. It will also be true that running someone in a district in which, Obama got 48% is more important than running someone in a district in which he got 38%.

6.  Fund all candidates in warm water.

       In addition to getting candidates to run in district we can win. They have to be funded and by that it isn’t that these candidates have to go out and raise the money themselves with the hope that if they succeed, they will  then get help.   We can’t have a raise $500,000 and we will talk attitude, In fact the opposite  must be true While the standard shouldn’t be zero a base threshold of say $50,000 to  $ 100,000 to show the person is some degree of serious seems on mark. We should also think about being willing to substitute a cash amount for a number of in district donors. 1000 , $50 contributions should count equally to 50 $2400 contributions for gauging viability. When the base level support is reached, it is the job of everyone, net-roots, DCCC, DNC to make sure they are funded at the level required to reach name recognition saturation and to run an effective campaign.  Additionally Members of Congress should fund the candidates directly.

With slightly over 75% of Members of Congress participating each candidate could receive  $ 350,000 in direct member funding before leadership pacs or double dipping for primary and general are even considered.

7.  Be wary of cold water.

    By the same token it is important to very wary of cold water.  While there is no-line in the sand meaning that Obama lose does not mean Democrats shouldn’t challenge there.[All though we only hold 12 McCain Districts after the 2010 election] If the district dips below 45% for Obama that is a very dangerous  sign. If it dips below 40% the case to be made for the possible victory for a Democratic would need to be very strong indeed before resources should be allocated. Remember that even with a victory in such a case we are saddled with a member who is going to be very vulnerable and unfortunately in two recent cases [LA 4 and AL 5] members from such districts after very  hard fought battles switched parties merely so that they could survive[although one was subsequently tea-partied to death]  There are also sadder examples like Tonny Sowers in  MO 8 who raised a ton of money and did everything right and still couldn’t break the partisan model of  his district.

8. Be wary of reruns.

         Another of area of concern is when candidates who lose want to run again. This is no always a bad idea as can be seen by Paul Hodes  in 06 or Tim Walberg, Steve Chabot, Andy Harris,Charlie Bass in 2010. However in general these kind of challenges have less success than the district’s partisan make up might otherwise indicate. So while I can think of a view former members who should run again as well as a few candidates, the familiar or even the well-liked nature of these people should not blind us to the very real dangers of incorrect re-nominations.

9. Persuasion is overrated.

     This is another one of the semi-blasphemous things in this memo but when you look deeply at the numbers the ability of campaigns to persuade seems to be decreasing. A few campaigns are successfully able to break out of the partisan tide, but in general there are maybe 15% of voters would be likely to swing from voting for one parties candidate or another in a race in which name recognition saturation is met. No doubt this is the crucial and decisive factor in some races, but remember if 15% are up for grabs the likelihood is that they won’t break 100% one way or another in fact ranges between 60% to 40% or 55% to 45% are more common.  If the Electorate is 300,000  people, which is about average for a congressional race in a Presidential year , 15% is   45,000  and  a 60% win is  9,000  vote margin, and the difference between  losing swing voters 60 to 40 as opposed to  55 to 45 is only  4500 votes. Now this is not an insignificant number of votes. However it is also not automatically decisive that means while persuasion should be a tool in the arsenal, it shouldn’t be the arsenal.

10. Start with  the base and build out.

      This is a lesson which Republicans never and Democrats always forget. In the vast majority of election who votes is more important than how they vote because based on who votes how they are going to vote is somewhat of a forgone conclusion. Voters may not want to believe they can be that easily predicted but in the vast majority of cases they are.  This means that Democratic candidates do not spend  nearly the time require to reward the parties most loyal voters. This is a lesson from the 2008 election that is too often forgotten. Amongst those voters who voted in 2004 between John Kerry and George Bush, Obama only won  50% to 49%, or a of swing 2% to 3% total.  Meanwhile Obama won by nearly 7% because amongst the new electorate Obama won by a huge margin. Obama focused on getting these voters out but frankly his history making existence was incredibly power incentive in and of itself.  Without as much incentive, the effort needs to be doubled.  President Obama as a candidate always had this excitement factor but it was not clear that he would be able to expand the Iowa Caucus electorate since it had never been done on the Democratic side.  But because he did it, he won.  Finding ways to expand the electorate can be as important if not more important than successful persuasion.

11. Remember who the base is.

    Democrats sometimes have a hard time remembering who there base is. Looking to issue silo’s[like Pro-Choice, or Environmental  groups] to replace actual voters. So for those playing at home the Democratic base is made up of the following.

1. Racial Minorities.

In 2006  Non-Whites made up 23% of the Electorate  and gave Democrats 75% percent of the Vote, in 2008 they made up 27% of the Electorate and gave Democrats 81%  and  In 2010 they made up 23% Electorate and gave Democrats 75%.   If the point is not clear this the absolute bedrock of the Democratic Party without which we would cease to function. Democratic Candidates running for any office should begin their campaigns there. If your campaign can’t get the average turnout and the average percentage from this base is incredibly unlikely to win.

2. Religious minorities

White Religious Minorities[Including those who proclaim no religion or an other religion] make up the next  biggest portion of the Electorate preferring Democrats at roughly 14% of the Electorate each year and preferring Democrats  at roughly  a 2/1 cliff leaning slightly  more toward Democrats if you had to guess.

Summary :

That is the sum total of the Democratic base. Combined they range from 37% to 40% of the electorate depending on the year.  The goal for a Democratic candidate is to win those groups 3-1 and then minimize damage with the rest of the electorate. If you can hit 40% of the vote with the rest of the electorate you are likely to win.

12. Partisan performance is two numbers, Obama 08 high/ Kerry 04 low  

       When thinking of where to challenge and also the challenges which lie in front of  Democratic Challengers it is important to look at both numbers. While we obviously need to challenge in any district Obama won. We need to make triple certain that the Kerry district [180 districts now]  come in incredibly strong  something  like 175-5.  [as opposed to the current 167-13] Particularly of note for Progressive is that Kerry district are much more able to sustain

long term  progressive then is newly won territory.

13. Don’t under challenge.

            If the goal is to retake the House and  25 seats  netted is require for that, we need at fewest 50 but more realistically 60 strong challengers to House Republicans.  This includes playing in all Obama won district, and also will probably include some district we hope to turn toward Obama[ NE 2nd wasn’t an Obama district until it was and  also places where our house candidate can over perform the top of the ticket by just enough to win. 60 Challengers, all funded to at least a million dollars is what is going to take to re-take the House.

14. Look for ethical weaknesses but don’t over rely on them.

         One of the best ways to beat a member in territory you don’t really have the right to control is ethical weaknesses. One need only look at the brief but happy career of Joseph Gao to see that ethical weakness can under the right circumstances obliterate party considerations. However once the corrupt incumbent is gone, party seems to have an effect of reverting to form. Almost all of the Corruption Seats from 2006[ FL 16, TX 22, OH, 18, AZ 5  PA 10] have revert to their original party. The exceptions being NC 11 and depending on your definition CA 11. Still 7 of the Democrats 30 pickups were aided if not create by Republican Ethical problems.. But only 2 of those 7 are still in Democratic hands. The lesson, leverage corruption in race where it can help particularly in expanding the field but don’t make it overly important because the seats can  still be harder to win and much harder to hold.

15.  Remember and reinvent field.

         The ultimate goal for any campaign is to get votes, as many votes as possible. Some votes come easily [base Democrats who always vote], some votes come more difficulty[ persuasion and turnout targets] . Regardless campaigns need to constantly be asking themselves, how will this help me get votes.  This means ways to make the ubiquitous phone calls and door knocks which are a crucial part of field but also new and different ways to get to voters. The best way to get more votes is often found not in what would be described as traditional field tactics, but in the more difficult but potentially more rewarding means of getting true neighbor to neighbor, or peer to peer contact. If someone you know tells you about  anything even, a candidate that is better than if someone you don’t know tells you about it or them.  Congressional Candidates should keep this in mind when building field programs and getting votes. Motivating people to speak to their friends needs to be a part of the program.

16.   Being a House Republican shouldn’t be fun.

        This is a lesson that is well learned from the Tea-Party. The more noise you make, even it is nonsensical and irrational, the better. Additionally, House Democrats felt incredibly uncomfortable some of the time in response to Tea Party Activists. An entire house seat was likely lost because a Member of Congress responded improperly to an obnoxious Tea-Party Activist.  It is likely that struggle of it aided in creating at least two retirements which we lost.  Turn around must be fair play. The House Republicans will conspire to do many things that either are or can be spun to be horribly unpopular. They shouldn’t be able to operate in their districts or anywhere without being remind of these things.  It is a shame that our politics has degenerated and now values noise and fury, but silence now  means acquiescence. We need noise and fury and for the job of being a House Republican needs to be less than fun.

17. Use new media to expand who can help your campaign.

       It has it strengths and weakness but in general the more outlets in which your message is going out the better. Of particular import is using Democratic-Social Networking tools like DFA’s.  It is important to get blogosphere buy in. Republicans of late have been better at funding their candidates from a national perspective. Sharron Angle outraised Harry Reid. Christine O’Donnell raised 7.4 million which was far more than Chris Coons  . Scott Brown raised far more than Martha Coakley.  Also, challengers need far more national help because they have a harder time  winning local support, particularly financial . Campaigns need to focus on this money stream as well as the other potential skills that can be gained through the power of new media, you might be able to find a discount web designer, or speech writer, or field people. New Media gives you a chance to encourage more to support your campaign and that is important.

18. Let candidates be themselves.

          This goes against more conventional wisdom but seems important.  There is much drudgery involved in the process of running for Congress and a lot of it is unavoidable but the process of trying to remake people into sound bites can grate on them and unhappy candidates do less well. The benefit you may get from polish decreases the possibility for creative thinking. In the end it simply isn’t worth it. Letting a candidate feel like the campaign is theirs and allowing for new ideas will make everything work better.

19. Run with the President where it is wise, be careful where it is not.

           Democrats in the district that a Democrat has a chance to win really like the President. This means that for Democrats it is important to be seen as viewing the President favorably and that those who vote for The President should consider voting for our challenger as a means of aiding the President. However since most of these district are pretty evenly divided between People voting for the President and then those voting against, the wise course would be to stake out a few in district signature differences which while not actually being overly important to Democrats nor risk costing the President many votes can be enough to get the small percentage of crossover votes needed. One important note is that running with the President in a state he is going to win or is a true tossup it is more important to run with but even in close district in states he will lose the importance of distance matters greatly.  Regardless you have to walk the line well.

20.  If you can’t use any National Democrats, you probably can’t win.

       Some Democrats are more popular than the President in a number of district the most prominent of these being President Clinton. If the prospect of bringing President Clinton into your District to campaign for you seems like a poor choice the odds are good that the district is simply too Republican to sustain a reasonable Democratic Challenge.  You need to be able to use some National Democrats to show the Democratic base it matters.  Each state and district would have a different set of  Democrats to bring in, but if you are gun shy about them in total.  Think deeply about why, and how you can win.

21. Make sure to run with Local Candidates.

Challengers need every vote they can get and almost every campaign good, bad or indifferent succeeds in bring in some new voters to the process. Simply because of the personal friends everyone has. By supporting local candidates you can  gain access to these networks and by helping them you can reach into their bases. Maybe one candidate is a firefighter, the other is a teacher, the other is a member of an ethnic group that represent a small but important number of voters. Either way the work of these campaigns can bring in additional votes and the better they do and the more you can aid them the better chances they have of bringing in the extra votes you might not be able too.

22. Peopleraise while you fundraise.

    The Number of people invested in your campaign with a monetary contribution to your campaign is as important as the amount of money you are able to raise. Getting everyone who wants to help to give just a small amount is valuable.  That small token of money is in fact an investment in your campaign and once someone is invested in something the odds of them doing something else to help increases.   Getting the buy is valuable even the dollar amount doesn’t seem it.

23.  Know Your Vote Goal

     Vote goals are an under utilized tool on campaigns.  Generally they are hidden deep in the campaign and are seen as proprietary and what is worse is that they are woefully weak in terms of  detail. This should not be. Campaigns should know the numbers of votes they need to get in each precinct and be prepared to have a plan to get them, and buy your team into this concept of a specific number of votes and the need to obtain them.  When you set goals, it is easier to meet them.  The vote goal is the most important goal of all, and what you are working for. People care more about what they are doing when they know what the their goals are and the plan to obtain them.

24. The last votes are in ideas you haven’t thought of yet.

       In 2006, Joe Courtney won a House Seat by 83 Votes.  The organizers at the University of Connecticut decided at the last minute to pay for a limo to drive students to the polling place.  That decision made outside of the official campaign probably won that race. It was aided by the support from the Men’s Basketball coach and a visit by Ben Affleck.  The point is that there are extra votes in somewhat unlikely ideas.  Ideas that are unlikely can often well be needed.  This means you need to be thinking of extra ideas and no campaign can nor should yet have the exact solution because each race is different and every circumstances is different. One size does not fit all. The Limo with no previous engagement would have been useless.

25.  Start Now

       We don’t have time to wait, there is plenty to do and the longer candidates are in the race the more chances they have to raise money, build bodies, build name recognition and generally get to equal recognition with an incumbent and as importantly not let the incumbent enjoy uncontested news cycles. The broader goal requires nearly 60 such quality candidates so we can be sure of the seats we need and not be able to hold if we lose some of the 12 McCain won districts.  No time to waste.  

With the election over, I thought I’d take a stab at what a bipartisan incumbent protection map might look like in Virginia. The plan is to protect all 11 incumbents; the only district that would likely be competitive in an open seat situation under this map is VA-10.

Click for huge.

VA-01 (Rob Wittman – R) – Hasn’t changed a whole lot; takes in some more of Prince William, loses part of Stafford/Spotsylvania, and adds the two Eastern Shore counties (they were in VA-01 prior to the 2000 map).

VA-02 (Scott Rigell – R) – Snakes up the shore to take in some Republican territory (Poquoson, parts of York and Gloucester), picks up the VA-01 bit of Hampton, and loses the Eastern Shore. Should move the needle to the Republicans by a couple points.

VA-03 (Bobby Scott – D) – Takes Petersburg out of VA-04, mostly unchanged. 62% black.

VA-04 (Randy Forbes – R) – Also not changed a whole lot, aside from losing Petersburg, which should flip the district to McCain.

VA-05 (Robert Hurt – R) – Removes Charlottesville and most of Albemarle, adds the rest of Bedford, Lynchburg, and Amherst. Should be no trouble at all for the Republicans to hold now.

VA-06 (Bob Goodlatte – R) – Snakes up from Roanoke, where Goodlatte lives, through the Shenandoah Valley, and pulls in Charlottesville and Albemarle and some outer NoVa counties. Shouldn’t endanger Goodlatte.

VA-07 (Eric Cantor – R) – Actually a little less ridiculous now, it’s a solidly-Republican suburban Richmond/Fredericksburg area district. Still should be solidly Republican.

VA-08 (Jim Moran – D) – Remains solidly Dem; continues to hold the trifecta of Alexandria, Arlington, and Falls Church, but goes west instead of south. Maybe a couple points less Democratic, but still a safe D district.

VA-09 (Morgan Griffith – R) – Not much changed here; added Salem, Martinsville, and some more of Roanoke County. Safe R.

VA-10 (Frank Wolf – R) – Added almost all of Shenandoah County, and removes some parts of Fairfax. Retains the most Republican parts of Fairfax. Safe for Wolf, should lean Republican in an open seat, unless it’s a particularly good Dem year.

VA-11 (Gerry Connolly – D) – Replaces the Republican PW County parts with the solidly-Dem SE PW County. Should be a pretty safe Dem seat.

As of 3:30 AM on Nov. 4th the Republicans have a 239 seat majority in the House which is 21 seats over the 218 needed for the majority.

So I started taking a VERY EARLY look at 2012 House Seats and seeing if there are at least 22 seats the Democrats should realistically be able to take a run at if 2012 is a normal election year (50-50 turnout).

So the seats we lost that I think we’d have a 40% chance of winning and up are AZ-01 (R+4), AZ-05 (R+5), CA-20 (D+5), FL-02 (R+6), FL-08 (R+2), FL-22 (D+1) FL-24 (R+4), IL-08 (R+1), IL-11 (R+1), IL-14 (R+1), IL-17 (D+3), MI-01 (R+3), MI-07 (R+2), MN-08 (D+3), NV-03 (D+2), NH-01 (EVEN), NH-02 (D+3), NJ-03 (R+1), NY-13 (R+4), NY-19 (R+3), NY-20 (R+2), NY-24 (R+2), NC-02 (R+2), OH-01 (D+1), OH-06 (R+2), OH-15 (D+1), OH-16 (R+4), PA-07 (D+3),  PA-08 (D+2), PA-11 (D+4), TX-23 (R+4), TX-27 (R+2), WA-03 (EVEN), WI-07 (D+3), and WI-08 (R+2). Right there is 35 seats, if I counted correctly, where the Dems should be able to win at least 1/2 of them by it simply not being 2010 Part II.

Then we could add in the Republican seats that should be up for a challenge in a Presidential election like AZ-03 (Quayle won by 11.6%), CA-03, CA-44, CA-45, CA-49, FL-12, FL-25, IL-10, MN-06 (Bachmann is bound to shoot herself in the foot soon), PA-06, PA-07, SC-02 (Wilson won by 9.8% in this year, imagine when AA turnout is higher), and WA-08. The Dems have a much smaller chance at winning any of these districts, aside from IL-10, but 1/2 of 35 is 17.5 and adding 2-3 seats here would put Democrats within 2 seats of re-taking the House.

Now I’m sure redistricting will shake things up and some senior Democrats and Republicans will retire but as of today I think the Democrats could just have an average election year and still take back the House albeit with a tiny minority. If Obama gets a re-election bounce similar to Clinton in 1996 then maybe his coattails could elect another 10 or so Democrats.

P.S. If you see any seats that I forgot to list please let me know.

P.P.S I looked at a combination of a districts PVI and 08/10 election numbers.

I doesn’t seem like it was that long ago when Swing State Project celebrated the Democratic Sweep in Montana that elected Brian Schweitzer Governor. But next spring will be Governor Schweitzer’s last legislative session and due to term limits the seat will be open in 2012.

The great news is that former Congressman Pat Williams is considering a run for governor!

Pat Williams, like his cousin Evel Knievel, came up on the rough and tumble streets of Butte, America. But he was such a fierce advocate as a public servant that the Williams family is now widely considered to be the first family of Montana politics. After choosing not to run for re-election in 1996, he became one of the most popular professors at the University of Montana. In honoring Williams just last week, UM President George Dennison said Pat Williams, “embodies the ideals of civic engagement.”

If Williams runs, it would be a very exciting race. He was famous for running bigger door-to-door campaigns than Montana had ever seen before (or has seen since). In 1992, when Montana’s two congressional districts were combined into a single at-large seat, Williams beat another sitting congressman in the most legendary statewide campaign in decades. While respect for Williams runs wide across Montana, his bold progressive stances have earned him a depth of support that runs deeper than can easily be explained.

Keep an eye on this one.

UPDATE: The Montana blog 4&20 Blackbirds says:

Like Pogie, all I need to know is “Where can I donate? Where do I sign up to volunteer?”

Indeed.

UPDATE II: Chuck Johnson got him on record:

“My phone’s been ringing again, really for a year, but especially since the story on the Internet,” he said in a telephone interview. “I’m honored that this is the third time that Montanans have generously asked me to run for governor. If I ran, I’m convinced that I’d win the primary by a good margin and then the general by a smaller but safe margin.

“I’m 72 years old, and I am more knowledgeable and wiser than I was at my so-called prime at 35. The other thing I know is that there will be a lot of good candidate on both sides, Republican and Democratic, but I will not be one of them.”

Fundraising in the cycle before an election can give us signs of who is thinking about retirement or who is planning for a tough re-election. Looking through 2009-2010 FEC reports for 2012 Senate candidates contains some surprises about incumbents assumed to be likely 2012 retirements, such as Dianne Feinstein and Ben Nelson. Below you can find the fundraising, cash on hand, and debt of every incumbent senator up for re-election in 2012, with the exception of Kirsten Gillibrand, who first has to win a 2010 election and West Virginia, where we do not know who the incumbent will be.

I will arrange it by the amount (least to greatest) that the Senator has raised this cycle:

Senator- Raised this cycle- Cash on Hand- Debt

(D-HI)Daniel Akaka- $19,000- $78,050- $0

(R-TX)Kay Bailey Hutchison- $77,788- $50,628- $0

(I-CT)Joe Lieberman- $81,721- $1,261,561- $0

(D-NM)Jeff Binjaman- $147,146- $366,018- $0

(D-WI)Herb Kohl*- $198,207- $15,549- $0

(I-VT)Bernie Sanders- $259,622- $141,661- $0

(R-WY)John Barrasso- $384,215- $554,739- $0

(R-ME)Olympia Snowe- $407,009- $1,085,714- $0

(R-NV)John Ensign- $444,161- $961,247- $0

(R-IN)Dick Lugar- $464,852- $2,350,060- $0

(R-AZ)Jon Kyl- $562,490- $600,327- $0

(D-MD)Ben Cardin- $613,752- $379,594- $0

(D-ND)Kent Conrad- $616,187- $1,905,346- $0

(D-VA)Jim Webb- $688,356- $509,959- $0

(D-DE)Tom Carper- $734,118- $935,791- $0

(D-MT)Jon Tester- $844,975- $500,768- $0

(D-RI)Sheldon Whitehouse- $855,136- $589,527- $0

(R-MS)Roger Wicker- $919,844- $401,796- $0

(D-MO)Claire McCaskill- $1,087,857- $793,586- $0

(D-WA)Maria Cantwell*- $1,111,117- $316,029- $2,180,161

(D-NE)Ben Nelson- $1,218,005- $1,180,852- $0

(R-UT)Orrin Hatch- $1,286,657- $2,300,247- $0

(D-MN)Amy Klobuchar- $1,351,502- $1,307,076- $0

(D-PA)Bob Casey- $1,379,122- $876,815- $0

(R-TN)Bob Corker- $1,406,025- $$796,477- $0

(D-CA)Dianne Feinstein- $1,492,719- $3,641,409- $0

(D-OH)Sherrod Brown- $1,695,542- $1,442,660- $0

(D-FL)Bill Nelson- $1,736,308- $2,712,340- $0

(D-MI)Debbie Stabenow- $1,880,157- $$1,407,087- $8,303

(D-NJ)Bob Menendez- $2,207,492- $2,036,673- $0

(R-MA)Scott Brown- $17,005,388- $6,034,498- $158,513

*Ability and willingness to self-fund

Scott Brown raised a huge amount of money in the run up to the MA special election, so much that he couldn’t spend it all. He had about 5 million left over immediately after the election, and has added an addition million to his campaign account since then. He heads into 2011 with the largest bank account of any senator up for re-election in 2012, other than Gillibrand, who has an election this year.

Incumbents Ben Nelson, Dianne Feinstein, Orrin Hatch, Tom Carper, and Olympia Snowe, all retirement possibilities in 2012, have raised decent amounts of money for their campaigns so far. Senators Daniel Akaka, Jeff Binjaman, Joe Lieberman, and Kay Bailey Hutchison, all retirement possibilities, are not raising much money. Hutchison has already announced her retirement, but she also announced her resignation two years ago. Dick Lugar and John Ensign, both considered very likely retirements, are still raising money. Herb Kohl is also considered a potential retirement in 2012, but it is difficult to tell from his fundraising reports, since he self-funds all of his bids.  

This is my first attempt at redistricting Illinois.  I drew this map assuming that Governor Pat Quinn wins re-election and Democrats control the redistricting trifecta.  SSPers know, of course, that Pat Quinn trails in the high single-digits in the most recent polls, so full Democratic control remains in doubt.  

Illinois is predicted to lose a congressional seat in 2012, going from 19 to 18 seats.  This necessitated the drawing together of two incumbents, Peter Roskam and Mike Quigley.  Illinois also currently has 4 VRA districts (3 African-American, 1 Hispanic) all based in the City of Chicago.  I preserved all 4 districts, and I felt that the sharp Hispanic growth required the creation of another majority Hispanic district.  Therefore, my map has 5 Minority-Majority districts.  

Chicago Area

District 1 (Golden Yellow) Pop. 716,433; 56% Black, 36% White, 6% Hispanic – Bobby Rush (D)

Located in the Heart of Chicago’s South Side, the 1st District remains mostly the same, except that it grows a bit in area and becomes dramatically less Black (formerly 65%, now 56%), but this is all a result of population loss in that area.  Still heavily Black and strongly Democratic. Obama ~ 80% – 85%

District 2 (Dark Blue) Pop. 719,391; 55% Black, 32% White, 12% Hispanic – Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D)

The South Side’s other Majority Black district, the 2nd also stays mostly the same, but expands in area and becomes a bit less Black.  It takes in some of the Cook County portion of Judy Biggert’s current district, but still remains the most Democratic district in Illinois.  Obama ~ 85% – 90%

District 3 (Red) Pop. 712,342; 63% Hispanic, 29% White, 5% Black – OPEN (D)

Unlike most of the other ethnic groups in the city, Chicago’s Hispanic population is growing rapidly.  Currently there is only one Majority Hispanic district in Illinois, represented by Luis Gutierrez. The rapid growth, as well as the large distance between the two main Latino enclaves, led me to create two Hispanic majority districts.  The 3rd, located on the South and West sides of the City and including Cicero, Berwyn, and Burbank, is predominantly Mexican.  Gutierrez, this area’s current Congressman, is Puerto Rican and lives on the North Side.  The split will allow the Mexican Community to have it’s own voice in Congress.

Obama ~ 70% – 75%

District 4 (Turquoise Blue) Pop. 716,176; 57% Hispanic, 30% White, 5% Black – Luis Gutierrez (D)

This is Chicago’s second majority Hispanic District.  It is primarily Puerto Rican and is located just North and West of the Loop.  It is reasonably compact (much better than the previous 4th, at least) and includes Rep. Gutierrez’s home.  He would likely be very happy with this district.  It remains strongly Democratic. Obama ~ 70% – 75%

District 5 (Purple) Pop. 718,061; 74% White, 14% Hispanic, 8% Asian – Mike Quigley (D) + Peter Roskam (R)

The new 5th District draws together two relatively new Congressman, Democrat Mike Quigley of Chicago and Republican Peter Roskam of DuPage County.  Roskam’s District was very evenly divided when he won his first term in 2006, but in 2008 it gave President Obama 56% of the vote.  The addition of strongly Democrat-leaning parts of Northern Chicago makes the 5th a likely to safe Democrat district, and Quigley should beat Roskam fairly easily.  Obama ~ 60% – 65%

District 6 (Gray) Pop. 718,677; 54% Black, 35% White, 5% Hispanic – Danny Davis (D)

Danny Davis’s District bled population over the last decade, and therefore had to increase dramatically in size.  It is the last of Chicago’s 3 majority Black districts, and it stretches from Downtown/The Loop out to the Cook County – DuPage County border, and South to include more conservative suburbs formerly represented by Dan Lipinski.  At 54% Black, it is still strongly Democratic.  Obama ~ 80% – 85%

District 7 (Pink) Pop. 720,868; 64% White, 13% Asian, 13% Hispanic – Jan Schakowsky (D)

This new district takes up much of North Chicago along the lakeshore, including Lakeview, the Midwest’s largest gay district.  Much of this area was formerly in Mike Quigley’s district, but will probably be happier with a strong Liberal like Schakowsky.  It also includes her home in Evanston, some North-Western suburbs like Des Plaines and Park Ridge, and other Democrat leaning areas north of the city.  It should be safely Democratic.  Obama ~ 70% – 75%

Collar Counties/Chicago Exurbs

District 8 (Violet/Purplish Blue) Pop. 718,040; 74% White, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian – Melissa Bean (D)

Covers a similar territory to Bean’s old district, but now takes in more of Lake and Cook Counties and much less of McHenry County.  Moves closer to Chicago, so I would guess that it becomes somewhat more Democratic.  Likely still a narrowly Dem-leaning swing district.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 9  (Bright Green) Pop. 715,049; 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 10% Asian – Dan Seals (D) or Bob Dold (R)

Mark Kirk’s elusive North Shore district moves a little more into Cook County, and becomes 15% less White in the process (going from 81% to 66%).  It now includes Dan Seals’ home in Willmette, as well as Highland Park, Lake Forest, and Waukegan in Lake County.  If Dan Seals doesn’t win this district in 2010, another Democrat will in 2012.  Obama ~ 65% – 70%

District 10  (Tan) Pop. 712,389; 73% White, 11% Hispanic, 9% Asian – Judy Biggert (R) + Dan Lipinski (D)

This district strongly resembles Judy Biggert’s old 13th, but it was drawn with ConservaDem Dan Lipinski in mind.  It includes a portion of his old urban-suburban district, as well as parts of Will and DuPage counties, centered mainly around Naperville.  If faced with a Lipinski matchup in 2012, Biggert would probably opt to retire, but if not, or if Republicans can manage to find a moderate State legislator to run, Republicans could hold this district.  But Lipinski, a social-conservative who is already well known in the area, would have a significant chance of winning here.  Obama ~ 50% – 55%

District 11 (Olive Green) Pop. 718,631; 66% White, 24% Hispanic, 6% Black – Bill Foster (D) OR Randy Hultgren (R)

One of the few Districts in Illinois that has been experiencing steady growth over the past decade, Bill Foster’s district had to shed it’s Western rural counties, but is still centered around Kane, Kendall, and Dekalb Counties.  It includes the fast growing, Democrat-leaning, minority-majority city of Aurora, as well as Geneva, Elgin, and DeKalb. Becomes slightly more Democratic, which should help Foster out, though the district is already trending blue.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

Rural Illinois

District 12 (Dark Green) Pop. 712,202; 80% White, 11% Hispanic, 6% Black – Don Manzullo (R)

Manzullo’s district stays mostly the same (centered around Rockford), but loses rural Carrol, Ogle, and Whiteside Counties in exchange for almost all of McHenry.  Maybe moves slightly left, but not drastically, and not enough to dislodge Manzullo.  Obama ~ 50% – 55%

District 13 (Periwinkle Blue)  Pop. 719,998; 76% White, 12% Hispanic, 9% Black – Debbie Halvorson (D) OR Adam Kizinger (R)

The 14th takes in all of Kankakee County, most of Will County, and most of LaSalle County.  It loses the strange shaped arm that stretched South into McLean County and becomes much more compact.  Minority growth in the Joliet area makes this district a bit more Democratic, and should be a Democratic hold in a neutral year.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 14 (Sky Blue) Pop. 717,188; 90% White, 4% Hispanic, 3% Black – Aaron Schock (R)

I had to draw Aaron Schock’s home in Peoria out of his district and into Phil Hare’s but in exchange I gave him a district that is a bit more Republican.  It streches South from the Iowa border to strongly Republican Tazewell County, then to the Springfield area, and finally West to include all of McLean County.  Should be safely Republican.  Obama ~ 45%

District 15 (Orange) Pop. 717,498; 88% White, 6% Black, 3% Hispanic – Timothy Johnson (R)

Stays almost exactly the same, covers the same area along the Indiana border and leans strongly Republican.  Obama ~ 45% – 50%

District 16 (Dark Purple)  Pop. 716,746; 83% White, 9% Black, 4% Hispanic – Phil Hare (D)  

This district is now much more compact than it used to be. It includes the Illinois portion of the Quad Cities, Peoria, and a small portion of Springfield, as well as a large swath of rural farming counties along the Iowa border.  Should be safe for Hare, though the area is trending Republican.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 17 (Green) Pop. 717,602; 81% White, 15% Black, 2% Hispanic – Jerry Costello (D)

I tried to shore up Costello’s district as much as possible, but it’s still more or less the same.  It loses some of it’s far Southern counties along the Kentucky border that have been trending Republican, and gains Macoupin and Montgomery Counties, both of which were won by Obama. Still, the needle doesn’t move too much.  Obama ~ 55%

District 18 (Yellow) Pop. 711,505 89% White, 7% Black, 2% Hispanic – John Shimkus (R)

Still the most Republican district in Illinois, Shimkus’s doesn’t change much.  It’s hard to believe this district was once represented by Dick Durbin.  Obama ~ 40% – 45%

I thought as me first diary I should take a look at what lies ahead in 2012. Take in mind, while I do take in mind facts in each state, these are purely speculative and should be taken with a grain of salt. However, I do put in mind three factors which I think would affect state by state results:

1.) Obama on the ballot: With Barack Obama most likely running for reelection, his presence on the ballot should increase Democratic turnout that was not present in Virginia or New Jersey in 2009, and will definitely have an impact of key states.

2.) Tea Party: Just as Obama’s presence will mobilize the left, I expect the Tea Party to have the same impact on the Republicans as they are currently having during the current primary calendar.

3.) 2011 Redistricting: I suspect by the time the states redraw their Congressional Districts, a number of House members may be drawn out of their old districts and may be seeking greener pastures of higher office.

So here’s my completely speculative predictions for 2012. I’ll look at the Senate first:

Arizona: Jon Kyl, once looking like a dead duck, seems to have gotten a second wind with immigration reform once again front and centre. Gabrielle Giffords is probably the most likely challenger, however at this point it doesn’t look like Kyl will be unseated.

Kyl 51%, Giffords 47%, Others 2%

California: Dianne Feinstein will be 79 years old, and while normal people expect someone that age to retire, this is after all the United States Senate, so I’m working with the assumption that Feinstein is running for reelection. Schwarzenegger is the only statewide Republican who’s won statewide, so I’ll use him as a template.

Feinstein 55%, Terminator 41%, Others 4%

Connecticut: Three words: Murphy vs. Lieberman. Republicans won’t even run a candidate to give Joementum a better chance to win.

Murphy 52%, Lieberman 48%

Delaware: I actually think Tom Carper will retire. Beau Biden, after recovering from his health scare, will make up for not running for his father’s seat. Republicans will pick a sacrifical lamb.

Biden 56%, Republican 44%

Florida: I’ve got three different scenarios for this one. George Lemieux might run, and possibly Jeb Bush. Marco Rubio does NOT win in 2010, and tries to take on Bill Nelson.

Nelson 53%, Lemieux 46%, Others 1%

Bush 57%, Nelson 40%, Others 3%

Rubio 51%, Nelson 48%, Others 1%

Hawaii: At 88 years in 2012, I’m guessing Akaka’s going to retire. Linda Lingle is going to run. In case Akaka doesn’t retire:

Lingle 51%, Democrat 49%

Indiana: I think Lugar’s got one more term in him, but this time the Dems aren’t letting him get away unopposed like last time; I’m just going to pull Baron Hill out of my arse here. Look for the Tea Party to make some kind of third party bid here.

Lugar 60%, Hill 30%, Tea Partier 10%

Maine: Tea Party makes good on its threat. Snowe faces a primary challenge and LOSES. Shockwaves are felt for about a week before people focus on the race. Mike Michaud runs for the Democrats and gets easiest pickup ever.

Michaud 58%, Republican 42%

Maryland: I think Cardin’s pretty weak. If the GOP finds another Michael Steele type candidate (I mean Steele before he became RNC Chairman), namely a black Republican, they might have a chance.

Black Republican 49.8%, Cardin 47.2%, Others 3%

Massachusetts: Pretty sure everyone is going to be watching this one come election night. Brown is popular now, but with Obama on the ballot and strong Democratic turnout this isn’t going to be the lucky break he got with Martha Coakley. Let’s just use Michael Capuano as the expected candidate.

Brown 51%, Capuano 49%

Michigan: This might be Stabenow’s last stand. The popularity of Dems in Michigan has gone down because of the economy, but with Obama on the ballot there is still a chance she could be saved. But this would depend if the GOP nominates a Tea Partier or a moderate Republican. Let’s use Dick DeVos as an example.

DeVos 50%, Stabenow 49%, Others 1%

Minnesota: I don’t see Amy Klobuchar losing at all.

Klobuchar 62%, Republican 36%, Others 2%

Mississippi: Same thing with Roger Wicker I see with Klobuchar.

Wicker 61%, Democrat 39%

Missouri: This is most likely going to be a McCaskill/Talent rematch.

McCaskill 52%, Talent 48%

Montana: Montana only has one Congressional district, so it’s not going to be changed anyway. Still, Denny Rehberg might be interested in running against a less stronger candidate like Jon Tester, who squeaked past the hapless Conrad Burns by a hair.

Rehberg 54%, Tester 44%, Others 2%

Nebraska: a Rasmussen poll last year showed Gov. Dave Heineman leading Ben Nelson by 31 points. Heineman’s very popular and could be seeking higher office after reelection this year. Either Nelson’s going to retire, or Heineman is going to run against him.

Heineman 59%, Nelson 41%

Heineman 70%, Some Other Guy 30%

That’s all I’ve got for now. Stay tuned for Part 2 of me Ridiculous 2012 Senate Predictions.

(Note: This is a two-part diary on analysis of Orange County, i am writing up analysis of the effect of Prop 8 tomorrow. I apologize if it seems too long, but this is from a perspective of an OC resident. Comments and criticisms are welcomed.)

In 2008, Barack Obama accomplished something no other Democrat statewide could do: Keep Orange County within single digits (47-50%). While everyone knew he would win California (maybe not by the double-digit margin he did it by), no one including many OC Democrats here would imagine him being on the cusp of a symbolic victory: Winning in territory the media calls “America’s most conservative county”, the home of Richard Nixon and the center of Conservatism in California.

Well, how did he do it? Well, much like the so-called “Obama Wave” swamped the entire country, it also hit ground here in Orange County, taking the top three populated cities (Santa Ana, Anaheim and Irvine) and making large inroads in normally-conservative areas. President Obama wasn’t the only major change to Orange County politics, the controversional ballot measure known as Proposition 8 also broke-down boundaries, and you wouldn’t believe which cities voted for (or narrowly against) and against it, but first let’s take a look at each cities performance for the 2008 Presidential election (08′ only):

City	PVI	% ’08	Notes
(Orange County)	R+4	47/50	Whole county.
Aliso Viejo	D+1	53/45	Incorporated after 2000 Census
Anaheim	R+1	51/47	Minority-majority; Second-largest city
Brea	R+10	42/56
Buena Park	D+1	53/44	Large Asian and Latino populations.
Costa Mesa	EVEN	52/46
Cypress	R+5	47/51
Dana Point	R+5	47/51
Fountain Valley	R+9	43/55
Fullerton	R+3	48.6/49.8	College town; Minority-majority
Garden Grove	R+5	48/51	Minority-majority; Large Vietnamese population
Huntington Beach	R+6	46/52	Libertarian-leaning
Irvine	D+5	57/41	College town
La Habra	R+3	49/48.6	Minority-majority
La Palma	R+3	48.4/49
Laguna Beach	D+11	63/35	Well known for large LGBT community
Laguna Hills	R+7	45/53
Laguna Niguel	R+6	46/52
Laguna Woods	EVEN	52/46	Extremely high percentage of Senior citizens
Lake Forest	R+7	46/53	Large evangelical presence; Added communities after 2000 census
Los Alamitos*	R+4	49/50
Mission Viejo	R+8	44/54
Newport Beach	R+12	40/58	Libertarian-leaning
Orange	R+7	45/53
Placentia	R+9	43/55	Large Hispanic population
Rancho Santa Margartia	R+9	43/55
San Clemente	R+10	42/56	Home of Ronald Reagan
San Juan Capistrano	R+10	42/56
Santa Ana	D+14	66/32	Largest city; Hispanic-majority; Most Democratic
Seal Beach	R+5	48/51
Stanton	D+2	54/44	Minority-majority
Tustin	EVEN	52/46
Villa Park	R+25	27/71	Most Republican; Least populated city
Westminster	R+10	42/56	Large Vietnamese population, home to Little Saigon
Yorba Linda	R+18	32/66	Birthplace of Richard Nixon

*Number 12 on the map, wasn’t added to the list.

If your one who prefers visuals (and tolerates crappy novice-style use of paint :P), then look below:

This result shows that Obama made a large impact on Hispanic voters (OC was very Pro-Clinton during the primaries, as well as Hispanics), winning the heavily hispanic cities of Santa Ana, Buena Park, Stanton and Anaheim. He also made inroads with more conservative areas in the south, losing Huntington Beach by only 6 points (46-52) while it has a majority GOP registration edge, and Lake Forest by a similar margin (46-53), known for its strong evangelical presence such as the Saddleback Church and its pastor Rick Warren. Obama also gained huge support amongst young voters, handily carring Irvine (home to UC Irvine), and narrowly (48.6-49.4) losing Fullerton (home to Cal State Fullerton). From here, we’re going through a city-by-city analysis of how it votes, demographics and whether its going to be competitive in the elections to come:

(Note: I will detail the important cities to look for below, so not all 34 cities will be listed below.)

Aliso Viejo:

Population: 46,123

Analysis: Nestled in the fast-growing area of South Orange County, Aliso Viejo (the youngest city as of 2001) is an example of a city that is trending Democratic. Not only did it vote for Obama by a comfortable 6 point margin, it was one of only 4 cities here in Orange County that voted AGAINST Proposition 8 (48.5-51.5) and the second-strongest showing against the measure, Laguna Beach being the strongest. It is the stereotypical “Country club” Republican city, fiscally conservative on most issues (Also voting against the state’s High speed rail initative, which passed) but fairly moderate-to-liberal on social issues, voting against Propositon 4 which sought to restrict contraceptives to minors unless a parent has consent. If any Democrat statewide seriously plans to turn Orange County blue, winning Aliso Viejo is a must.

Anaheim:

Population: 353,643

Analysis: The second largest city in the county and the main entertainment hub, home to Disneyland. Anaheim is a city that is easily classified by geography. Most of Anaheim is fairly urban and very Hispanic, mainly around the Downtown area. But to the East, lies a whole different kind of Anaheim: the community of Anaheim Hills. Already hearing the name, and you’re correct to guess that its a more wealthy, upscale area far different than its neighbor to the west. Home to mansions and a getaway for celebrities, Anaheim Hills is strongly GOP turf, fiscally and socially conservative but more so on the fiscal side. For someone to want to turn Orange County blue, they would need to keep their margins down in Anaheim Hills and fairly high in the rest of Anaheim.

Brea:

Population: 40,377

Analysis: This one is personal since this is where i live, but its also the most descriptive as well. Surrounded by large cities (Fullerton, Chino Hills and Diamond Bar), Brea is a sanctuary to escape from the bigger more urban cities in and around LA County. Politically, however Brea is strongly conservative, especially socially. There is a large and very influential Mormon presence here (There’s two LDS places of worship here alone!) along with large Catholic, and Baptist faiths. To the south is the even-more conservative city of Yorba Linda, who uses the city of Brea’s Police since they don’t have their own department. However there is a steadily growing Hispanic population, mainly from neighboring La Habra and cities near Brea in LA County, but like with Mormons they are socially-conservative as well, so its a double-edged sword. No Democrat will win here, but cracking 40% here is an accomplishment in its own.

Buena Park:

Population: 84,141

Analysis: It shares similarities with its neighbor Anaheim in that: Both have large Hispanic populations, and both are known for its amusement parks (Knott’s Berry Farm for Buena Park). Yet Buena Park is slightly more Democratic due to its large Asian population (most likely from nearby Cerritos in L.A County) and its higher turnout rates than Anaheim. Buena Park is a must win city, and getting around 55% would be enough for a squeaker county-wide.

Costa Mesa:

Population: 117,178

Analysis: Surrounded by larger cities, Costa Mesa is a popular city to live in due to its close proximity to Huntington/Newport Beach, and close to UC Irvine. But Costa Mesa has made the news for declaring itself a “Rule of Law” city, taking a hard line against illegal immigration. The person most responsible for bringing it up for a vote? The Mayor, Allan Mansoor, who is also running for the State Assembly (Gee, see how that all works out?) in 2010. Despite this, Costa Mesa is trending Democratic because of its large Latino population, along with people from nearby Irvine moving to Costa Mesa. Another must-win to turn the OC Blue.

Fullerton:

Population: 106,335

Analysis: Home to Cal State Fullerton (the largest in the state by enrollment), Fullerton is a fast-growing suburb of Los Angeles and an overall enjoyable city. Gaining a larger Latino population due to its close proximity to Whittier and South Los Angeles, makes Fullerton a swing city for elections to come.

Garden Grove:

Population: 174,715

Analysis: Garden Grove is home to a very large Vietnamese population, much like nearby Westminster is as well. In terms of voter registration, Republicans edge Democrats by around 3,000 voters but gave John McCain a solid 52%. The reason being because Garden Grove is very conservative on social issues, and viewed Obama as too liberal for them. Along with their generally anti-communist views, Garden Grove is also home to a small, but noticable Latino population, mainly from nearby Santa Ana.

Huntington Beach:

Population: About 200,000

Analysis: A well-known tourist destination for those looking for great surfing, Huntington Beach symbolizes a “Live free and Die” mentality, and its voting record is one to notice carefully. Voting for McCain 52-46% while subsequently voting against Prop 4 by 3 points and narrowly voting for Prop 8 by 2 points. If this trend continues, Huntington Beach will be poison for social conservatives.

Irvine:

Population: 212,184

Analysis: Irvine is a city that is rapidly turning Democratic, due to the extremely large influence the University of California, Irvine campus has on the city. In fact, all of the precincts in and around UC Irvine went around 80% for Obama. The city council has a Democratic majority, along with the Mayor, and has implemented many progressive policies. Democrats, Republicans and Decline to State voters all have around 30,000 voters each, meaning Irvine is a solid tossup for elections to come, but give it a Democratic edge due to its large youth voters.

Laguna Beach:

Population: 23,727

Analysis: Laguna Beach is the major LGBT scene in Orange County, and was one of the first cities to sponsor a resolution opposing Proposition 8, so its no surprise that Obama carried Laguna Beach by a landslide. Laguna Beach is the second most Democratic city in Orange County, and will likely overpower Santa Ana as #1 in the near future. Any Democratic candidate can easily win here.

Lake Forest:

Population: 78,720

Analysis: Home to the Saddleback Church and its pastor, Rick Warren, Lake Forest is situated within Southern Orange County and is close to the cities of Mission Viejo and Irvine. Despite its reputation as being home to major evangelical groups, Obama did surprisingly well, keeping his loss within single digits. Could he win here in 2012? It depends on a number of factors, but it can’t be ruled out.

Santa Ana:

Population: 355,662

Analysis: Santa Ana is ground zero for Democrats, its strongest (being the most populated city in the county) and safest city politically. Home to an extremely large (almost 80%) Hispanic population, Democrats routinely poll in the high 60’s and all of the currently elected officials (State Senate/Assembly/Congress) have Santa Ana as their major base.

There seems to be a flurry of people attempting to redistrict California, so my plan may seem less adventurous than others – especially when compared to the Herculean effort by Silver Springs.

However, I have a different purpose – I want to create a Democratic map that respects existing political lines – cities and counties. The bottom line is that I create a map that creates 39 safe Democratic seats, 8 safe Republican seats, and 6 toss-up seats (each of the toss-up seats were won by Obama. Based on the 2000 demographic data, I create a map with 31 minority-majority districts, including 10 majority Hispanic districts and a plurality African-American district. (*I believe that my CA 45 will be minority-majority with the new census).

Like my NY contest entry, I claim that a safe Democratic seat is one where Obama won with 55% of the vote (Seven Republicans represent districts that gave Obama 55%/16 Republcans represent districts Obama won by over 53%). I have included in my description of each district where the current incumbents live, but their residences did not play a factor in how I drew the map. The map also has no deviation in district size greater than 702.

Northern California

In Northern California, there are five seats, Currently, Republicans hold three of the seats.

In this map, I created three safe Democratic seats, one tossup and one safe Republican seat. To do this, I decided to weaken CA 1 and pack Republicans into CA 4. I did keep the City of Sacramento intact, while dividing the rest of the county amongst 4 other districts.

CA 1 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,684

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	80%	1%	2%	10%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	66%	32%	60%
New District	55%	42%
Change	-11%	+10%	-5%

This district sheds territory in the Sacramento Valley for counties on California’s northern border – Siskiyou, Shasta, Modoc, and Lassen counties. While Representative Thompson no longer resides in the district, he, or another Democrat should continue to find this seat winnable.

CA 1 and CA 2 are tough districts to draw. On one hand, I could draw one very safe Democratic district that includes Humbolt, Mendicno, Lake, Napa and portions of Yolo (and Solono) counties. On the other hand, I could draw two 55% Obama districts. At worse, both seats are toss-up seats in open-seat elections.

CA 2 Current Incumbent – Thompson (D-St Helena); Herger (R-Chico)

Population – 706,763

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	68%	3%	6%	19%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	43%	55%	37%
New District	55%	44%
Change	+12%	-12%	+18%

The Northern California districts in the current map generally align North-South, creating two safe Republican seats. In my map, District 2 goes down the West side of the Sacramento Valley, extends into Napa County and South to Vacaville. This should be a strong Democratic seat, and Representative Herger should be in trouble.

CA 3 Current Incumbent – Lundgren (R-Gold River)

Population – 706,602

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	70%	5%	7%	12%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	43%	55%	37%
New District	53%	45%
Change	+10%	-11%	+16%

The Northern California districts in the current map generally align North-South, creating two safe Republican seats. In my map, District 2 hugs the Nevada border, from Plumas to Alpine County. The District stretches into Sacramento County and takes in the suburban areas immediately to the east and south of Sacramento.

This will likely be a swing district for the foreseeable future, but I expect that growth will occur in the Sacramento suburbs and the district will continue to trend Democratic.

CA 4 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,552

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	78%	2%	5%	11%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	44%	54%	37%
New District	44%	54%
Change	0%	0%	+7%

CD 4 is composed of the northern Sacramento suburbs and exurbs in Placer and Yuba counties, as well as the Cities of Folsom and Citrus Heights in Sacramento County. Representative McClintock (Thousand Oaks) still does not live in this district.

Reflecting the changing demographics, the district becomes slightly less white than before 84% – 78%, but it is unlikely to become more hospitable for Democrats anytime soon.

CA 5 Current Incumbent – Matsui (D-Sacramento)

Population – 706,349

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	50%	12%	1%	14%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	70%	28%	61%
New District	64%	34%
Change	-6%	+6%	+3%

The District encompasses the City of Sacramento and extends north to Sutter County. The District becomes slightly whiter and more Republican, but it remains a safe Democratic seat.

This District is a minority-majority seat.

CA 10 Current Incumbent – Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove)

Population – 706,645

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	52%	11%	12%	21%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	72%	27%	67%
New District	61%	37%
Change	-11%	+10%	-6%

This district remains a split Bay Area/Sacramento County District. It stretches from Vallejo in the West to the Southern Sacramento suburbs. It dips into Contra Costa County to encompass the cities of Antioch and Oakley and parts of Pittsburg. It also takes in conservative Lodi in San Joaquin County.

Representative Garamendi should like this district, despite the drop in Democratic performance, since he is now a resident of the district.

Bay Area

All safe Democrats.

CA 6 Current Incumbent – Woolsey (D-Petaluma)

Population – 706,661

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	75%	2%	4%	16%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	76%	22%	70%
New District	66%	24%
Change	-1%	+2%	+5%

CA 6 stays fundamentally the same, only taking in the City of Napa and losing parts of Sonoma County.

CA 7 Current Incumbent – Miller (D-Martinez)

Population – 706,254

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	65%	6%	12%	14%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	72%	29%	67%
New District	66%	32%
Change	-4%	+3%	1

This district now stays entirely in Contra Costa County.

CA 8 Current Incumbent – Pelosi (D-San Francisco)

Population – 707,082

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	46%	8%	30%	13%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	85%	12%	84%
New District	85%	13%
Change	0%	+1%	+1%

Slightly whiter than the current district

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 9 Current Incumbent – Lee (D-Oakland)

Population – 706,732

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	35%	25%	1%	17%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	88%	10%	86%
New District	89%	9%
Change	+1%	-1%	+3%

Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 11 Current Incumbent – McNerney (D-Pleasanton)

Population – 706,025

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	47%	10%	18%	20%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	54%	44%	45%
New District	70%	28%
Change	+16%	-16%	+25%

CA 11 stays in Alameda County and extends slightly north to Southeastern Contra Costa County. The district goes from a swing district to a safe Democratic seat. This does not have a detrimental affect on the Democratic lean in San Joaquin County.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 12 Current Incumbent – Speier (D-Hillsborough)

Population – 706,600

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	45%	3%	27%	20%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	74%	24%	72%
New District	74%	24%
Change	0%	0%	+2%

Parts of San Francisco, Northern and Eastern San Mateo County.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 13 Current Incumbent – Stark (D-Fremont)

Population – 706,283

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	44%	3%	27%	22%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	74%	24%	71%
New District	68%	31%
Change	-6%	+6%	-3%

This district now extends from Fremont in the North, circles around to the east and takes in part of South San Jose, and goes south to Gilroy.

Most of Stark's base is now part of McNerney's district (CA 11), but the change is necessary to shore up McNerney's seat. When Stark retires, a Democrat should easily pick up this seat.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 14 Current Incumbent – Eshoo (D-Menlo Park)

Population – 706,637

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	55%	3%	23%	15%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	73%	25%	68%
New District	73%	25%
Change	0%	0%	+5%

CA 14 now stays out of Santa Cruz County, and extends east into the cities of Los Altos, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, Cupertino, Saratoga, and Campbell.

CA 16 Current Incumbent – Honda (D-San Jose); Lofgren (D-San Jose)

Population – 706,632

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	30%	4%	28%	34%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	70%	30%	63%
New District	71%	28%
Change	+1%	-2%	+8%

It is difficult placing two Democrats in one seat, but with one of my goals to preserve City lines mostly intact, San Jose should be in one seat. However, packing Democrats in the Bay Area does not negatively affect seats elsewhere, and cracking the Bay Area leads to ugly looking districts throughout the state.

While preserving current incumbents can be valuable, the value of a map should be viewed as a whole, rather than any one particular district.

CA 17 Current Incumbent – Farr (D-Carmel)

Population – 706,776

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	55%	2%	6%	33%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	72%	26%	66%
New District	72%	26%
Change	0%	0%	+6%

CA 17 encompasses Santa Cruz and San Benito Counties, and northern Monterey County (including the cities of Carmel and Monterey).

Central Valley

In the San Joaquin Valley, I create two 55% Obama districts, two 50% Obama districts and a solid Republican district. Assuming that a 55% district will elect a Democrat except in the largest Republican wave years, the worst that can happen in this area is exactly what is the current Congressional Delegation split (3 R – 2 D). In this case, the Republican districts will lean Democratic and only grow stronger because of the demographic changes in the area.

CA 15 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,846

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	47%	7%	11%	31%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	–	–
New District	55%	43%
Change	–	–

CA 15 is a new district based in Stockton and rural Stanislaus County. In many respects, the district will reflect the political nature of the entire state, and with a growing Hispanic population, should grow more Democratic as the decade goes on.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 18 Current Incumbent – Cardoza (D-Atwater)

Population – 706,832

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	48%	3%	6%	38%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	59%	39%	49%
New District	52%	46%
Change	-7%	+7%	+3%

Representative Cardoza will face challenges in this swing district. Personally, he was elected in 2002 with only 51% of the vote, so he should be able to remember how to run a competitive election (he was unopposed in 2008).

The district runs from Modesto to Merced, and extends a bit south to Democratic precincts in east Madera (bypassing Chowchilla). The district is rapidly growing, and the demographics should continue to favor Democrats by the end of the decade.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 19 Current Incumbent – Radanovich (R-Madera) or new member

Population – 706,439

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	65%	2%	3%	26%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	46%	52%	38%
New District	39%	59%
Change	-7%	+7%	+1%

CA 19 is a very safe Republican district bordering Nevada, from Amador County to Tulare County in the South. The district splits the city of Madera in Madera County with CA 18. In Fresno County, conservative-leaning Clovis is in CA 19.

CA 20 Current Incumbent – Costa (D-Fresno)

Population – 700,226

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	34%	6%	9%	46%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	60%	39%	51%
New District	56%	42%
Change	-5%	+4%	+4%

This Fresno-based district now stays entirely in Fresno County. Obama’s performance drops slightly to preserve compactness.

This is a minority-majority district. I expect it will soon be a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 21 Current Incumbent – Nunes (R-Tulare)

Population – 706,283

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	31%	6%	4%	55%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	42%	56%	34%
New District	50%	48%
Change	+8%	-8%	+16%

King County, Portions of Tulare and Kern Counties. Democratic-leaning precincts in East Bakersfield are also in this district.

The current district goes north from Tulare County into Fresno County. Although I considered drawing Rep. Nunes out of this district, his residence in Tulare is among the most Democratic part of this district. A Democrat may have a hard time unseating Representative Nunes, but the demographic nature of the district will make it a swing seat in normal election years.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 22 Current Incumbent – McCarthy (R-Bakersfield)

Population – 706,992

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	64%	4%	3%	26%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	38%	60%	31%
New District	38%	60%
Change	0%	0%	+7%

CA 22 remains centrally located in Kern County; it does lose precincts in Bakersfield, and all of San Luis Obispo and Los Angeles Counties. It gains Republican areas in Santa Barbara County and Ventura County, including the cities of Camarillo and most of Moorpark.

CA 23 Current Incumbent – Capps (D-Santa Barbara)

Population – 706,162

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	62%	2%	4%	29%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	66%	32%	58%
New District	58%	40%
Change	-8%	+8%	0

Much of the Republican gain in this district come from the addition of all of San Luis Obispo and Monterey Counties, where the eastern portions of those counties are not as Democratic as the cities and precincts along the Pacific Ocean.

The district continues to be a strong Democratic district.

CA 24 Current Incumbent – Gallegly (R-Simi Valley); McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks)

Population – 707,144

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	55%	2%	5%	34%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	51%	48%	43%
New District	57%	41%
Change	+6%	-7%	+14%

The fruits of these changes in the Central California Coast is changing a swing (lean Republican) district into a solid Democratic district. I do not think that Elton Gallegly would survive in this district, after losing the conservative portions of Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties to CA 22.

Los Angeles County

Los Angeles County has 14 whole Congressional Districts and only has one district split between it and Orange and Riverside Counties. All 14 CD's are Democratic leaning.

CA 25 Current Incumbent – Dreier (R-San Dimas)

Population – 706,354

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	46%	11%	6%	33%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	49%	48%	40%
New District	56%	42%
Change	+7%	-6%	16%

The statistics for this district, which is entirely in Los Angeles County are for CA 25, but Representative Dreier (CA 26) resides in the district. The district includes Lancaster and Palmdale in the North, and Pomona in the Southeast.

A Democrat should be able to win this district, especially since most of the district would be new territory for Representative Dreier.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 27 Current Incumbent – Schiff (D-Burbank)

Population – 706,392

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	32%	4%	9%	51%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	66%	32%	59%
New District	67%	31%
Change	+1%	-1%	+8%

CA 27 is a Los Angeles – Burbank district. My guess is that the district includes Northridge, Panorama City, San Fernando, and Mission Hills, among others.

 

The district is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 28 Current Incumbent – Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), Berman (D-Valley Village)

Population – 706,769

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	30%	4%	10%	51%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	76%	22%	71%
New District	75%	23%
Change	-1%	+1%	+4%

CA 28 stretches across Nothern Los Angeles, from (what I would say) Resenda to Van Nuys, to North Hollywood through Griffith Park to Atwater Village.

The current districts were drawn to ensure that both incumbents resided in different districts. Short of carving out a few precincts to draw Rep. Berman into the 27th, as both Representatives live around 4 miles from each other, I kept the districts more or less compact.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 29 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,337

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	38%	5%	17%	35%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	68%	31%	61%
New District	64%	34%
Change	-4%	+3%	+3%

CA 29 retains the core of the old district, Glendale and Pasadena, but loses Burbank and Alhambra, gaining more northern and eastern suburbs, Sierra Madre, Monrovia, and Aduza.

While Representative Schiff now resides in CA 27, the district should remain a solid Democratic seat.

This is a majority-minority district.

CA 30 Current Incumbent – Waxman (D-Beverly Hills)

Population – 706,711

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	74%	3%	8%	11%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	70%	28%	66%
New District	63%	36%
Change	-7%	+8%	-3%

Waxman's district hugs the Los Angeles – Ventura County line, from Kern County through Santa Clarita to Malibu, and then extends eastward through Los Angeles to Beverly Hills.

CA 32 Current Incumbent – Miller (R-Diamond Bar)

Population – 705,921

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	23%	3%	21%	50%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	68%	30%	62%
New District	61%	37%
Change	-7%	+7%	-1

This district swings easterly. In the North, the district includes Glendora and Covina, in the west: Irwingdale, Baldwin Park and El Monte, and in the south and east: La Habra Heights, Walnut and Diamond Bar.

Representative Chu's residence is now in CA 38, but a Democrat should easily win this district.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 33 Current Incumbent – Watson (D-Los Angeles)

Population – 706,250

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	25%	5%	16%	51%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	87%	12%	83%
New District	79%	19%
Change	-8%	+7%	-4%

CA 33 wraps around West Hollywood.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 34 Current Incumbent – Becerra (D-Los Angeles); Roybal-Allard (D-Los Angeles)

Population – 706,977

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	5%	7%	5%	81%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	80%	18%	77%
New District	85%	13%
Change	+5%	-5%	+8

This district includes East Los Angeles, Vernon, Maywood, Huntington Park and portions of Los Angeles County.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 35 Current Incumbent – Waters (D-Los Angeles)

Population – 706,135

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	2%	50%	2%	43%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	84%	14%	79%
New District	94%	5%
Change	+10%	-9%	+15%

This is a South Los Angeles, Inglewood, Compton district.

This is a majority-minority district.

CA 36 Current Incumbent – Harman (D-Venice)

Population – 706,943

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	45%	11%	12%	28%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	64%	34%	59%
New District	77%	21%
Change	+13%	-13%	+18%

CA 36 extends from Santa Monica to Hawthorne, and has an arm through central Los Angeles. The district becomes much stronger Democratic, as it stays more compact and northerly. A challenger to Representative Harman should find much easier terrain.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 37 Current Incumbent – Richardson (D-Long Beach)

Population – 706,336

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	8%	19%	10%	60%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	80%	19%	74%
New District	80%	19%
Change	0%	0%	+6%

CA 37 is a donut shaped district around the City of Compton. It includes the cities of Gardena, Carson, northern Long Beach, Paramount, Lynwood, and South Gate. I am not sure if Representative Richardson would actually lives in this district.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 38 Current Incumbent – Napolitano (D-Norwalk), Linda Sanchez (D-Lakewood)

Population – 707,067

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	35%	7%	14%	41%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	66%	32%	59%
New District	63%	35%
Change	-3%	+3%	+4%

* Old District CA 39

Someone who is reading to this point may think, wait a second, why are there so many Democratic primaries in this map. I want to remind the readers that the current map is a Republican gerrymander, and second, I am more concerned with the entire state delegation rather than one individual. In this particular district, Representatives Napolitano and Sanchez reside in nearly adjacent cities. From pieces from the current CA 36, CA 37, and CA 46, we can create a Democratic performing district from Manhattan Beach to Long Beach. We could then carve up northern Orange County and create two marginal Democratic performing seats – one for Rep. Napolitano and one for Rep. Sanchez. I prefer the stronger seat and one seat that has the potential to become more Democratic performing.

This district extends from Long Beach to Sante Fe Springs along the Los Angeles County border.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 39 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,502

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	18%	2%	24%	54%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	54%	44%
New District	65%	33%
Change	0%	+2%

This district stretches from South Pasadena and San Marnio to Whittier and Downey. The district includes parts of the current CA 38, CA 32, and CA 34.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 46 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,184

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	41%	7%	15%	33%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	-%	-%
New District	60%	38%
Change	-%	-%

This district is the payoff in reversing the Republican gerrymander. In this district, located from Torrence to Long Beach along the Pacific, a Democrat should win comfortably in most election cycles.

This is a minority-majority district.

Orange County

Orange County is currently split into 6 districts, and a Republican holds 5 of them. However, Obama won 3 of those districts in 2008. In this map, I create two safe Democratic seats, and only split Orange County five ways – with only one district extending out of the County.

CA 31 Current Incumbent – Calvert (R-Corona)

Population – 707,092

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	58%	3%	7%	28%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	50%	49%	40%
New District	44%	54%
Change	-6%	+5%	+4%

*old stats are for the current CA 44.

Representative Calvert's district becomes a safe Republican district that extends into Los Angeles County to take in the City of La Mirada, the Orange County cities of Brea and Yorba Linda, and the western edge of Riverside County, including Corona, Murietta and Norco.

CA 40 Current Incumbent – Loretta Sanchez (D-Garden Grove), Royce (R-Fullerton)

Population – 706,539

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	28%	3%	14%	53%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	60%	38%	49%
New District	55%	43%
Change	-5%	+5%	+6%

*old district stats for CA 47

This district combines Fullerton, most of Anaheim, and portions of Santa Ana and Garden Grove to create a competitive, but strongly leaning Democratic district in the north-central part of Orange County.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 42 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,001

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	74%	1%	8%	14%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	45%	53%	37%
New District	43%	55%
Change	-2%	+2%	+6%

This district includes the eastern portion of Anaheim, and Orange, extends South to include the suothern cities of Orange County, and extends north along the Pacific Ocean to include Laguna Beach and portions of Newport Beach. A Republican is very safe here.

CA 47 Current Incumbent – Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach)

Population – 706,996

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	56%	1%	21%	18%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	48%	50%	42%
New District	45%	53%
Change	-3%	+3%	+3%

*old district stats for CA 46

This district is an entirely Orange County district, encompassing the cities of Cypress, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, and most of Garden Grove and Newport Beach.

This district should remain a safe Republican seat.

CA 48 Current Incumbent – Campbell (R-Irvine)

Population – 706,454

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	45%	2%	14%	36%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	49%	49%	40%
New District	56%	42%
Change	+7%	-7%	+16%

Creating a second Democratic leaning district in Orange County was not too difficult. I combine the cities of Irvine, Tustin, Costa Mesa and Laguna Woods, and portions of Orange and Santa Ana.

This is a majority-minority district.

Remainder of Southern California – San Bernardino, Riverside, San Diego, Imperial Counties

Currently only three Democrats represent parts of any of these Southern California counties. In my map, Democrats should represent at least 5 districts, Obama won two more districts, and Republicans should only have two safe seats.

CA 26 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,612

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	39%	7%	7%	43%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	51%	47%	44%
New District	53%	45%
Change	+2%	-2%	+9%

CA 26 is now located in San Bernardino and northern Riverside County. It includes the cities of Chino, Chino Hills, Ontario, and Rancho Cucamunga. This is a toss-up district, but should lean Democratic most years and the demographics favor the district becoming more strongly Democratic.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 41 Current Incumbent – Lewis (R-Redlands)

Population – 706,905

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	63%	6%	3%	23%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	44%	54%	37%
New District	42%	55%
Change	-2%	+1%	+5%

This district is located entirely in San Bernardino County. It includes Representative Lewis' residence in Redlands, and the cities of Yucaipa, Victorville and Hesperia.

This is a safe Republican district.

CA 43 Current Incumbent – Baca (D-Rialto)

Population – 706,526

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	27%	14%	4%	51%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	68%	30%	58%
New District	66%	32%
Change	-2%	+2%	+8%

This district remains a safe Democratic district and a majority-Hispanic district. It includes the cities of San Bernardino, Fontana, Colton and Rialto.

This is a majority Hispanic district.

CA 44 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,679

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	43%	10%	6%	37%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	50%	49%	40%
New District	56%	42%
Change	+6%	-7%	+16%

This is now a solid Democratic district in northern Riverside County. The district includes Riverside, Moreno Valley, Banning, and Beaumont.

This is a minority-majoirty district.

CA 45 Current Incumbent – Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs)

Population – 707,189

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	51%	4%	2%	40%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	52%	47%	43%
New District	53%	46%
Change	0%	-1%	+9%

The percentages stay the same in CA 45, but the district becomes more urban. Palm Springs, Indio, and Coachella in the east are united with Lake Elsinore, Perris, and Hemet in the west.

I am not quite sure what percentage of the district is new, and I would expect that Representative Bono Mack could eke out a few more terms, but the demographics of the district are on our side, and a Democrat would likely to be favored in an open-seat election.

CA 49 Current Incumbent – Issa (R-Lakeside)

Population – 706,383

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	70%	2%	4%	21%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	45%	53%	38%
New District	39%	59%
Change	-6%	+6%	+1%

This district starts in the north along the southern border of Hemet, takes in Temecula and skirts along the city of San Diego eastern border, encompassing Escondido, Poway and Santee.

This is a very safe Republican seat.

CA 50 Current Incumbent – Bilbray (R-Calisbad) Hunter (R-Vista)

Population – 707,238

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	63%	3%	7%	23%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	51%	47%	44%
New District	54%	44%
Change	+3%	-2%	+10%

Two Republican incumbents in a district where Obama won with over 54%. Ah, fun with redistricting.

The district lies entirely in San Diego County along the Pacific Ocean, Oceanside, Vista, Carlsbad, San Marcos, and comes into the City of San Diego.

CA 51 Current Incumbent – Filner (D-Chula Vista)

Population – 707,057

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	28%	4%	9%	56%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	63%	36%	53%
New District	58%	40%
Change	-5%	+4%	+5%

This is a large district from Chula Vista and the border with Mexico to the border with Arizona and to the border of Riverside and San Bernadino County. This remains a safe Democratic seat.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 52 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,873

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	60%	5%	13%	17%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	45%	54%	38%
New District	56%	43%
Change	+11%	-11%	+18%

This is a Democratic district from North and East San Diego extending to El Cajon. 

CA 53 Current Incumbent – Davis (D-San Diego)

Population – 706,571

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	46%	11%	10%	29%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	69%	30%	61%
New District	64%	34%
Change	-5%	+4%	+3%

This Democratic district includes portions of San Diego, Coronado, La Mesa, and Lemon Grove.

This is a majority-minority district.