Many more House Districts now have Democratic candidates.

In less than 10 months the midterms will be upon us.

In 2006 we fielded candidates in 425 districts and in 2008 candidates in 421.

How will we go in 2010?

Since my last update many more brave Democrats have stepped up to run in Republican held Districts.

AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,

AL-06 (Bachus) – R+29,

CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,

CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,

CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,

CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,

GA-09 (Deal OPEN) – R+28,

IN-04 (Buyer OPEN) – R+14,

IN-06 (Pence) – R+10,

KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,

KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,

NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,

NJ-04 (Smith) – R+6,

NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,

NC-03 (Jones) – R+16,

NC-05 (Foxx) – R+15,

NC-06 (Coble) – R+18,

OH-03 (Turner) – R+5,

OH-04 (Jordan) – R+15,

OH-05 (Latta) – R+9,

OH-07 (Austria) – R+7,

OH-08 (Boehner) – R+11,

OR-02 (Walden) – R+10,

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Well for starters I think we can safely assume that we will field candidates in all 257 of the Districts that we currently hold.

So onto the Republican held districts:

GOP held Districts have confirmed Democratic Party candidates. This includes  in states where candidate filing is still open:

AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,

AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,

AL-06 (Bachus) – R+29,

AK-AL (Young) – R+13,

AZ-03 (Shadegg OPEN) – R+9,

AZ-06 (Flake) – R+15,

AR-03 (Boozman OPEN) – R+16,

CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,

CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,

CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,

CA-19 (Radanovich Open) – R+9,

CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,

CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,

CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,

CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,

CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,

CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,

CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,

CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,

CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,

C0-06 (Coffman) – R+8,

DE-AL (Castle OPEN) – D+7,

FL-01 (Miller) – R+21,

FL-05 (Brown-Waite) – R+9,

FL-06 (Stearns) – R+10,

FL-07 (Mica) – R+7,

FL-10 (Young) – R+1,

FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,

FL-13 (Buchanan) – R+6,

FL-14 (Mack) – R+11,

FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,

FL-16 (Rooney) – R+5,

FL-21 (Diaz-Balart OPEN) – R+5,

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart OPEN) – R+5,

GA-09 (Deal OPEN) – R+28,

GA-10 (Broun) – R+15,

IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,

IA-05 (King) – R+9,

KS-01 (Moran OPEN) – R+23,

KS-04 (Tiahrt OPEN) – R+14,

LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,

MD-06 (Bartlett) – R+13,

MI-02 (Hoekstra OPEN) – R+7,

MI-11 (McCotter) – R+0,

MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,

MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,

MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,

MO-08 (Emerson) – R+17,

MT-AL (Rehberg) – R+7,

NV-02 (Heller) – R+5,

NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,

NJ-04 (Smith) – R+6,

NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,

OR-02 (Walden) – R+10,

PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,

PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,

PA-16 (Pitts) – R+8,

PA-18 (Murphy) – R+6,

PA-19 (Platts) – R+12,

SC-01 (Brown OPEN) – R+10,

SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,

SC-03 (Barrett OPEN) – R+17,

TN-03 (Wamp OPEN) – R+13,

TN-07 (Blackburn) – R+18,

VA-01 (Wittman) – R+7,

VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,

WA-04 (Hastings) – R+13,

WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,

WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,

WI-05 (Sensenbrenner) – R+12,

Included in this total are 20 GOP held Districts with candidates in states where filing has closed:

IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,

IL-10 (Kirk OPEN) – D+6,

IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,

IL-15 (Johnson) – R+6,

IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,

IL-18 (Schock) – R+6,

IL-19 (Shimkus) – R+9,

IN-03 (Souder) – R+14,

IN-04 (Buyer OPEN) – R+14,

IN-05 (Burton) – R+17,

IN-06 (Pence) – R+10,

KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,

KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,

KY-04 (Davis) – R+14,

KY-05 (Rogers) – R+15,

MS-03 (Harper) – R+15,

NE-01 (Fortenberry) – R+11,

NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,

NE-03 (Smith) – R+24,

NC-03 (Jones) – R+16,

NC-05 (Foxx) – R+15,

NC-06 (Coble) – R+18,

NC-09 (Myrick) – R+11,

NC-10 (McHenry) – R+17,

OH-02 (Schmidt) – R+13,

OH-03 (Turner) – R+5,

OH-04 (Jordan) – R+15,

OH-05 (Latta) – R+9,

OH-07 (Austria) – R+7,

OH-08 (Boehner) – R+11,

OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,

OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,

4 GOP held Districts have Democratic Party candidates that are considering a run:

NY-03 (King) – R+4,

WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,

2 GOP held Districts have rumoured Democratic Party candidates:

FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,

OK-01 (Sullivan) – R+16,

GOP held Districts don’t have any Democratic Party candidates:

AL-01 (Bonner) – R+14,

AL-04 (Aderholt) – R+26,

AZ-02 (Franks) – R+13,

CA-21 (Nunes) – R+13,

CA-22 (McCarthy) – R+16,

CA-40 (Royce) – R+8,

CA-52 (Hunter) – R+9,

C0-05 (Lamborn) – R+14,

FL-04 (Crenshaw) – R+17,

FL-09 (Bilirakis) – R+6,

GA-01 (Kingston) – R+16,

GA-03 (Westmoreland) – R+19,

GA-06 (Price) – R+19,

GA-07 (Linder) – R+16,

GA-11 (Gingrey) – R+20,

ID-02 (Simpson) – R+17,

KS-02 (Jenkins) – R+9,

LA-01 (Scalise) – R+24,

LA-04 (Fleming) – R+11,

LA-05 (Alexander) – R+14,

LA-06 (Cassidy) – R+10,

LA-07 (Boustany) – R+14,

MI-03 (Ehlers OPEN) – R+6,

MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,

MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,

MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,

MI-10 (Miller) – R+5,

MO-02 (Akin) – R+9,

MO-06 (Graves) – R+7,

MO-07 (Blunt OPEN) – R+15,

MO-09 (Luetkemeyer) – R+9,

NJ-05 (Garrett) – R+7,

NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) – R+7,

NY-26 (Lee) – R+6,

OK-03 (Lucas) – R+24,

OK-04 (Cole) – R+18,

OK-05 (Fallin OPEN) – R+13,

PA-05 (Thompson) – R+9,

PA-09 (Shuster) – R+17,

SC-04 (Inglis) – R+15,

TN-01 (Roe) – R+21,

TN-02 (Duncan) – R+16,

UT-01 (Bishop) – R+21,

UT-03 (Chaffetz) – R+26,

VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,

VA-06 (Goodlatte) – R+12,

VA-07 (Cantor) – R+9,

WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers) – R+7,

WY-AL (Lummis) – R+20,

Included in this total are 6 Republican held districts where there is not a Democratic candidate on the ballot as at the closing of candidate filings:

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

So we now have candidate in House Districts, 4 Districts with candidates considering their options and 2 with rumored candidates.

In this stage in 2007 we had candidates in about 370 Districts but we do now hold 20 more districts. All things considered not a bad position to be in.

Whilst at this stage there is no real cause for concern vis a vis candidate recruitment, so much more remains to be done.

On the upside we already have a full slate in 23 states – Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont & West Virginia.

We also have only 1 district to fill in 8 states – Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, South Carolina, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.  

On the other hand we have Texas where 6 GOP incumbents will be unopposed in November!

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

Merlin’s Take on the 2010 AL Races

Here’s my predictions on how my homestate’s races will go:

Governor: Incumbent GOP Governor Bob Riley is term-limited, thus setting up a free-for-all on both sides. On the GOP side, State Representative Robert Bentley, former State Community College System Chancellor Bradley Byrne, State Treasurer Kay Ivey, Real Estate Developer Tim James, former State Economic Development Director Bill Johnson, former State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, and Financial Analyst James Potts are in the running. On the Democratic side, Congressman Artur Davis, State Commissioner of Agriculture & Industries Ron Sparks, and Inventor Sam Franklin Thomas are in the running. The Primary will be a tossup between James, Byrne, and Moore. Methinks Davis wins the Primary. This race will be a Tossup until the end. TOSSUP.

Lieutenant Governor: Incumbent Democratic Lieutenant Governor Jim Folsom Jr. is running for re-election. On the GOP side, State Finance Department Official Young Boozer, State Senator Hank Erwin, Teacher Gene Ponder, and Homebuilder Dean Young are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind Folsom Jr. The GOP Primary will be a tossup between Boozer and Erwin. Whoever wins will get crushed by Folsom Jr. DEM HOLD.

Attorney General: Scandal-mired Incumbent GOP Attorney General Troy King is running for re-election. On the GOP side, King and Attorney Luther Strange are in the running. On the Democratic side, Attorneys James Anderson and Michel Nicrosi and former State Democratic Party Chairman Giles Perkins are in the running. I expect King to defeat Strange 54-46 and Perkins to defeat Nicrosi 63-37. In the end, King narrowly wins 51-49. GOP HOLD.

Secretary of State: Incumbent GOP Secretary of State Beth Chapman is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Chapman. There are no announced Democratic Candidates, but potential candidates are Secretary of State’s Office Administrator Ed Packard and former Secretary of State Nancy Worely. Chapman will defeat whoever the Democrats nominate, if anybody. GOP HOLD.

State Auditor: Incumbent GOP State Auditor Samantha Shaw is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Shaw. The Democrats have unified behind Accountant Miranda Joseph. Shaw crushes Joseph in the neighborhood of 67-33. GOP HOLD.

State Treasurer: Incumbent GOP State Treasurer Kay Ivey is running for Governor. The GOP has unified behind former State Treasurer and former State PSC Commissioner George Wallace Jr. On the Democratic side, former State Conservation Commissioner Charles Grimsley and Attorney Jeremy Shearer are in the running. Grimsley will win 73-27 over Shearer. Wallace Jr. will defeat Grimsley 58-42. GOP HOLD.

State Commissioner of Agriculture & Industries: Incumbent Democratic State Commissioner of Agriculture & Industries Ron Sparks is running for Governor. The Democrats have unified behind Deputy State Agriculture Glen Zorn. On the GOP side, Walker County Economic Development Chair Dorman Grace, former State Conservation Commissioner John McMillan, and Businessman Dale Peterson are in the running. I expect McMillan to win 59-32-9 over Grace and Peterson. Zorn will narrowly defeat McMillan 53-47. DEM HOLD.

US Senate: Incumbent GOP US Senator Richard Shelby is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Shelby. The Democrats have unified behind Attorney William Barnes. Shelby devours Barnes 77-23. GOP HOLD.

AL-01: Incumbent GOP Congressman Jo Bonner is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Bonner, Real Estate Developer Peter Gounares, and Business Consultant Clint Moser are in the running. The Constitution Party has unified behind Artificial Reef Contractor David Walter. Bonner defeats Gounares and Moser 79-14-7, and destroys Walter 96-4. GOP HOLD.

AL-02: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Bobby Bright is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby and Businessman Rick Barber are in the running. The Democrats have, reluctantly, unified behind Bright. I expect Roby to beat Barber 54-46. Roby will defeat Bright 53-47. GOP PICKUP.

AL-03: Incumbent GOP Congressman Mike Rogers is running for re-election. The Gop has unified behind Rogers the Democrats have unified behind Attorney Josh Segall, and the Independents have unified behind Real Estate Broker Mark Layfield. Rogers will defeat Segall and Layfield 52-46-2. GOP HOLD.

AL-04: Incumbent GOP Congressman Robert Aderholt is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Aderholt. The Democrats have nobody. GOP HOLD.

AL-05: Incumbent GOP Congressman Parker Griffifth is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Griffifth, Madison County Commissioner Morris Brooks, and Businessman Les Phillip are in the running. On the Democratic side, Attorney Mitchell Howie, former Congressional Aide Steve Raby, and former State Board of Education Member Taze Shepard. I think Brooks defeats Griffifth and Phillip 51-45-4. Shepard will defeat Howie and Raby 56-35-9. Brooks will defeat Shepard 52-48. GOP HOLD.

AL-06: Incumbent GOP Congressman Spencer Bachus is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Bachus, Pastor Stan Cooke, and TV Show Producer Paul Lambert are in the running. The Democrats have nobody. Bachus will defeat Lambert and Cooke 76-19-5. GOP HOLD.

AL-07: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Artur Davis is running for Governor. On the Democratic side, Attorney Martha Bozeman, State Representative Earl Hilliard Jr., Frank Lankster, former Radio Journalist Patricia Evans Mokolo, Attorney Terri Sewell, Jefferson County Commissioner Sheila Smoot, and Mortgage Broker Eddison Walters are in the running. The GOP is unified behind Tea Party Activist Michele Waller. I expect a Runoff between Hilliard Jr. and Smoot, with Hilliard Jr. winning 51-49. Hilliard Jr. handily defeats Waller 74-26. DEM HOLD

A Texas-Sized Primary Means a Texas-Sized Batch of Maps!

As we all know, Governor Goodhair is now moving on to take on Bill White in the general election, and last night may have shown a natural ceiling for what the Tea Party can accomplish in Debra Medina.

We also say, maybe, some anti-Washington bias in Texans’ sound rejection of Kay Bailey Hutchison.

So how did it all shake out?

Well, here’s the map by county:

Throughout this diary, Blue denotes Perry, Green denotes KBH, and Red denotes either Medina or simply “anti-Perry”, depending on whether it’s a 3-color or 2-color scheme map, respectively.

You’ll see that Medina won 4 counties, Carson, Crane, San Saba, and Zavala. None of these counties are particularly vote-rich; in these four combined, Medina received 1,256 votes to Perry’s 711 and KBH’s 701. KBH won a cluster of counties around San Angelo, but really couldn’t tell you why.

More after the flip.

Here are each candidate’s performances:

KBH:

As we said, KBH did the best in a cluster near San Angelo; she did decently well in the Panhandle. She performed poorly in the Houston area, likely leading to Perry clearing the runoff threshold. Other areas of weakness included East Texas and along the (Mexican) border.

Medina:

Medina did well in North Texas, especially outside Dallas County; and west of Houston. East Texas and the Panhandle were particularly week. Not too much to read into in Medina’s county wins – they’re small counties and some might just be flukes, like Medina’s 11-3-2 win in Zavala County (a heavily Hispanic county that went VERY strongly for Obama).

Perry:

Lastly, we have Perry’s map. Perry did extremely well in Metro Houston, East Texas, and along the border; in contrast to slightly weaker performances in the Metroplex and again around San Angelo. The darkest blue is where Perry received 50%+, keeping him from the runoff.

Here’s an alternative visualization of this (where Blue indicates a Perry performance of 50%+; red indicating less than 50%).

You can see that Perry fell short of 50%, but only barely, in the Metroplex, slightly more so west of Houston (Ron Paul territory, incidentally), and very much so in KBH’s strongholds around San Angelo. This was offset, with Perry gaining votes on 50% in every county along the Gulf Coast.

Of course, the number of votes differs greatly by county. Not counting the numerous counties in which no votes were recorded, the vote counts ranged from a measly 3 votes in Upton County to almost 158,000 in Harris County (Houston). So here’s a map based on Perry’s relation to the 50% runoff line, in terms of raw votes (the key’s in the top left).

Perry was 16,166 votes ahead of 50%, and he built them up a great deal in metro Houston. Perry went +17,168 in Harris County, and tacked on another +5,935 in Montgomery immediately to the north and another +2,626 in Fort Bend. Other good points were: +1,654 in Nueces (Corpus Christi) and +1,452 in Bexar (San Antonio).

Where Perry’s weakness hurt him the most was clearly in the Metroplex. Perry lost -3,097 in Dallas County, -2,633 in Tarrant next door, and -1,172 in Denton up top. Rounding out the bottom 5 are Travis (Austin) at – 1,357 and a surprisingly strong Medina county, Wharton County, – 1,309.

So where does this leave us moving forward? It seems there seems to be a relative coolness towards Perry in the vote-rich Metroplex, something Bill White could capitalize on in his attempt to take back the statehouse. It’s also helpful that White’s natural base in Houston will offset some of Perry’s apparent advantage as well.

I’ll revisit the subject once the Texas Legislative Council (who are awesome at what they do) get precinct data online, but in the meantime…enjoy!

Cost of War is budgetary ‘Elephant in the Room’

In challenging times like ours, it is important to step back and look at the big picture. In the Senate we wrestle with painful choices to balance the state budget. Some factors affecting the budget are outside of our control, some we can control, and others fall somewhere in-between. While most legislative work addresses things we have direct control over, we should at least understand other factors influencing the resources available.

The cost of the Iraq and Afghan wars is the budgetary “elephant in the room.” It’s enormous and it’s right in front of us, yet we don’t talk about it as we face our economic woes. We don’t need to get into arguments about the wars to consider the burden war places on our economy.

President Dwight Eisenhower, one of our nation’s greatest military leaders, late in life, expressed deep concern about what he called “the military industrial complex.” Eisenhower stated, “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired, signifies in the final sense a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.”

During World War II, people were told that the war would require blood, toil, tears, and sweat — real sacrifice, not just for soldiers overseas, but also for the people back home.

In contrast, for the current Iraq and Afghan wars, people were told they wouldn’t have to sacrifice at all; taxes would be cut, not raised. President Bush told people after 9/11 that the patriotic thing to do was to “go shopping.” Perhaps that was due to delusional ideology, or perhaps it was a trigger-happy leader who recognized that if people understood the true cost, the war would be unjustifiable.

What this means for Minnesota’s economy is clear. In addition to the incredible sacrifices made by so many military families, Minnesota’s share of the cost of the wars now exceeds $5 billion for every two-year state budget cycle. Think of the investments that could be made in our communities if the federal government invested that money in the states instead of in the war. We could have avoided the layoffs of teachers and police and firefighters and health care workers. Think of the investments in living wage jobs, the investments in nursing homes for seniors, the investments in early childhood and helping at-risk kids succeed, the investments in public infrastructure.

Minnesotans working to build a better future face growing setbacks: Young people on the “six year plan” to get a two year college degree because they work two jobs to pay tuition. Parents struggle to find a safe place for their young kids during the workday because of cuts in sliding-fee child care. Employers unable to hire older workers because their pre-existing conditions would send the employer’s insurance premiums through the roof. People with disabilities face shrinking state programs that once covered them.

Those setbacks occur because states are unable to help people get a fair shake due to budget problems. It is time to press Washington to change its priorities away from war and into facing human needs in our communities.

The military budgets of all other nations of the world combined, barely exceeds the $693 billion the U.S. will spend on the military this year. And the $693 billion doesn’t include the $42 billion for Homeland Security, nor the undisclosed budget for the National Intelligence Program.

Based on population, Minnesota’s share of total military spending, including the two wars, is almost $12 billion every year. That’s two-thirds as large as our entire state general fund budget of roughly $17 billion/year. Imagine what we could accomplish if we cut our military spending by half. The savings would balance the state budget and make huge investments in education and community development.

President Eisenhower said, “I hate war, as only a soldier who has lived it can, as one who has seen its brutality, its futility, its stupidity.” He was clear in his message: “This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hope of its children.”

Sixty years later, we can see that the endless war has a real cost here at home. For the first time in our history, we are losing ground: High school students today have a lower graduation rate than their parents’ generation. Fewer young adults have access to health care than their parents have. Today’s workers will be less likely to have a decent pension than their parents enjoy. Eisenhower warned us. In spending money on war, we are truly taking away the hope of our children.

If we care about our future, ignoring the economic cost of war is just as foolish as ignoring the human cost.

___

I am seeking the governorship this year in my home state of Minnesota. Please visit my website @ http://www.johnmarty.org – Would love to hear your thoughts.

2010 House elections

After look to very much races, I will try to explain my point about 2010 elections at House level in this diary.

In few words I think they are not data what make me think democrats would lose more than 15 house seats.

Looking to the political level of incumbents and challengers, the rating of the districts, and the fundraising numbers of candidates I will make a rank of house seats, giving too the numbers of the last poll for the race if they are. This is not a rank of vulnerability, this is a rank by political level difference between the current candidates for every district looking to the political level of candidates and looking to the district too.

The rank is based in a little system of score what I create for try see better the difficult races for booth parties. Two examples of the score:

DE-AL currently a republican seat has 4.5 points of difference for the challenger party (Democratic Party). They are 3.0 points for dems by difference between political level of the candidates of booth partys, 0.5 points for dems by lead fundraising and 1.0 points for dems by the district democratic leaning.

TX-17 currently a democratic seat has 0.5 points of difference for the challenger party (Republican Party). They are 1.0 point for dems by difference between political level of the candidates of booth partys, 0.5 points for dems by lead fundraising and 2.0 points for republicans by the district republican leaning.

RANK BY POLITICAL LEVEL OF CANDIDATES FOR EVERY DISTRICT

Sure the system of score can improve still but I think give us a rank so logical.

Possitive difference for the challenger party (high weakness of the incumbent party)

4.5 points DE-AL D+07 Rep seat Last poll -10% R Research 2000 (D)

4.0 points TN-06 R+13 Dem seat

3.0 points KS-03 R+03 Dem seat

2.5 points IL-10 D+06 Rep seat

1.5 points IN-08 R+08 Dem seat

1.5 points ID-01 R+18 Dem seat

1.0 point  LA-03 R+12 Dem seat

1.0 point  NY-29 R+05 Dem seat

1.0 point  LA-02 D+25 Rep seat

0.5 points NM-02 R+06 Dem seat Last poll -02% D PPP

0.5 points IN-09 R+06 Dem seat Last poll -08% D Survey USA (R)

0.5 points ND-AL R+10 Dem seat Last poll -06% D Rasmussen Reports (R)

0.5 points SD-AL R+09 Dem seat Last poll +07% D Rasmussen Reports (R)

0.5 points TX-17 R+20 Dem seat

Tied

0.0 points AR-02 R+05 Dem seat

0.0 points NH-02 D+03 Dem seat Last poll -07% D University of NH

0.0 points PA-07 D+03 Dem seat

0.0 points MI-07 R+02 Dem seat Last poll -10% D National Research (R)

0.0 points NY-23 R+01 Dem seat Last poll +02% D 2009 special election results

0.0 points MS-01 R+14 Dem seat

0.0 points MO-04 R+14 Dem seat

0.0 points MD-01 R+13 Dem seat Last poll -13% D Tarrance Group (R)

Possitive difference for the incumbent party

0.5 points AR-01 R+08 Dem seat

0.5 points TN-08 R+06 Dem seat

0.5 points FL-25 R+05 Rep seat

0.5 points OH-18 R+07 Dem seat

0.5 points SC-05 R+07 Dem seat Last poll +07% D PPP

1.0 point  PA-11 D+04 Dem seat

1.0 point  OH-01 D+01 Dem seat Last poll -17% D SurveyUSA (R)

1.0 point  PA-08 D+02 Dem seat

1.0 point  MA-10 D+05 Dem seat Last poll -03% D McLaughlin & Associates (R)

1.0 point  VA-05 R+05 Dem seat Last poll =00% D PPP

1.0 point  AZ-05 R+05 Dem seat Last poll =00% D American Viewpoint (R)

1.0 point  AZ-08 R+04 Dem seat

1.0 point  IL-14 R+01 Dem seat

1.0 point  NY-24 R+02 Dem seat

1.0 point  PA-06 D+04 Rep seat

1.0 point  WA-08 D+03 Rep seat

1.0 point  NC-08 R+02 Dem seat Last poll +14% D PPP

1.0 point  CA-11 R+01 Dem seat

1.5 points NE-02 R+06 Rep seat

1.5 points MN-06 R+07 Rep seat Last poll +16% R PPP

1.5 points SC-02 R+09 Rep seat Last poll -01% R PPP

1.5 points AL-03 R+09 Rep seat

1.5 points CA-44 R+06 Rep seat Last poll +14% R Tulchin Research (D)

1.5 points NH-01 EVEN Dem seat Last poll -10% D University of NH

1.5 points NY-01 EVEN Dem seat Last poll +02% D Survey USA (R)

1.5 points CA-03 R+06 Rep seat

1.5 points KY-06 R+09 Dem seat

1.5 points CO-04 R+06 Dem seat

1.5 points AL-02 R+16 Dem seat Last poll +24% D Anzalone-Liszt Research (D)

1.5 points MS-04 R+20 Dem seat



2.5 points FL-12 R+06 Rep seat Last poll -04% R Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)

In the first two groups I bold emphasize the results of polls what favore incumbent party. In the third group I bold emphasize the results of polls what favore challenger party.

These groups of house races include all negative polls for incumbent party.

The first and second groups include difficult races for the incumbent party, with majoritary bad polls for the incumbent party, but not all. Between the first places, they are three republican seats where democrats are favored this year.

The number of seats in this two groups give a difference of +15 seats for republicans. But not all polls are negative for the incumbents in these groups, and not all the seats in these groups will change of party in 2010 elections.

The third group lean clearly toward the incumbent parties and is a group much more balanced with seats of booth parties. They are some unfavorable polls for booth parties, 3 for democrats and 2 for republicans. I think this group of races will give to republicans low number of net gains if the numbers change not to worse.

The polls will be surely the best information for every district, but this rank show us a so low number of districts without poll in the risk zone. This is important now for try stablish limits to loses and for see where is needed more work.

For all that, and looking specially to the polls, I think we have not evidence still of democrats will lose more than 15 seats.

About the seats where GOP is the incumbent party, like I tell before, they are three seats where democrats are favored (all in the first group of races), and they are some others what democrats can make vulnerable. Some days before, in my comments, I give a list of seven seats, but today will be six because I think the chance of win AZ-03 low without P Gordon. This is the list:

1.0 FL-25 (with J Garcia in)

1.0 PA-06

1.0 WA-08

1.5 SC-02

2.0 PA-15 (if J Callahan improves fundraising)

2.5 FL-12 (if L Edwards improves fundraising)

I think FL-25 (the effect of J Garcia running is not included in the rank still) and FL-12 are seats what give so good chance for fight strong. With the lead in  fundraise for democratic side, FL-12 district would low until 0.5 points for the incumbent party (republican party). In very few districts democrats can improve more with lower effort. For PA-15 I think J Callaham needs too take the lead fundraising, and with that, PA-15 race would be in the same level than PA-06 or WA-08 (1.0 points for the incumbent party).

They are more districts in lower level of risk for republicans. I would not forget this district and the other districts with 1.5 points where so unpopular republicans can fail.

PD: Just today one good level republican announce a bid for MI-03 and that makes I update my comments about this race. With higher level republicans, lower chance for democrats in republican open seats.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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PA-Sen: Quinnipiac – Specter surges back into the lead

This I like.

Specter 49 (44)

Toomey 42 (44)

Toomey 39 (40)

Sestak 36 (35)

Specter 53 (53)

Sestak 29 (30)

Specter has positive job approval, 48-45. Though voters don’t believe he deserves to be re-elected by a 52-38 margin.

“Sen. Arlen Specter seems to be having a good winter politically. He is back ahead of Republican Pat Toomey after having been essentially tied with him since last summer, and there remains no evidence that his primary challenger, Congressman Joe Sestak, has made much progress as we get within three months of the May primary,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Specter’s lead over Toomey is built upon a 52 – 36 percent margin among women voters, while Toomey has a small 49 – 46 percent lead among men, an indication that the gender gap remains alive and well.”

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128…

More evidence of things turning a little. First Strickland, now Specter. I wonder if we actually end up seeing Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts as having been the GOP high point this cycle rather than the harbinging of more doom and gloom.

Charlie Crist to leave GOP

The Sun-Sentinel has learned from 2 sources speaking on background that Charlie Crist will leave the Republican Party and run as an independent in this year’s senate election.

Anyone think Meek could pull off an upset now? I’d guess that Crist and Rubio will each end up taking anywhere from 25-35% of the vote, but I don’t know Florida politics that well.

Link to full article below the fold:

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.co…

House 2010 Midterms – More than just defense.

Whilst the Massachusetts Senate Special and a series of dodgy house polls have Democrats convinced that the November midterms will be apocalyptic; the fact is that a number of Republican held House districts are in fact vulnerable to a takeover from Democratic challengers.

How many?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

***This diary should be read in conjunction with the diary by Silver Spring***

There are 5 groups of races that are or might become or potentially should be competitive in November. They include Obama Republican districts, districts with very good candidates and districts of a Republican PVI of R+4 and less.

The first ten races below are ranked in order of probability of takeover. These races WILL be competitive in November.

1. DE-AL (Castle) – D+7,

Stick a fork in this one it is done.

With Castle running for the Senate does anyone really think there is a Republican in Delaware who can hold this district for the GOP? Especially as the Democratic Party currently leads in voter reg – 288,380 to 180,620.

With Carney sitting on a 100/1 Cash on hand advantage as at the end of December and the only poll available showing Carney with a 23 point lead this 62% Obama district is certain to end up in the Democratic column in November.

2. LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,

Incumbent GOP Rep Anh Cao has one thing and one thing alone going for him – a Cash on Hand advantage of $91K as at the end of December – $316K-$225K.

Every other indicator tells us that presumptive Democratic nominee State Rep Cedric Richmond will steamroll his way through this race in November.

After all Obama got no less than 75% of the vote in this D+25 district. Also there are 237,103 registered Democrats and only 39,753 registered Republicans. And lastly of course, we can all remember how Cao only won in 2008 courtesy of an awfully corrupt Democratic incumbent – Bill Jefferson.

Cao is toast.

3. IL-10 (Kirk) – D+6,

With Republican Dold and Democrat Seals emerging from competitive primaries this open District race is definitely on the radar for 2010.

Dold leads in COH $198K/$145K (as at 13th January) but Seals has the rolodex to crank up the fundraising on his 3rd attempt at the district, particularly if supporters of his vanquished primary opponent – Julie Hamos – circle the wagons and pitch in (she did raise over $1 mill). To this point Seals has outraised Dold too.

Seals will win here for two interlinked reasons:

1) Obama got 61% of the vote here in 2008.

2) Dold is just not moderate enough to attract crossover votes the way Mark Kirk did.

– I should note I volunteered for Seals in 2008 and am ridiculously biased.

4. PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,

With Gerlach back in the race (but flat broke (and his aborted Gubernatorial race was flat broke too at the end) this one will be the focus of much attention.

Presumptive nominee Doug Pike has more than $1 Mill COH as at 31st December, although it is largely self funded. BTW at this stage in 2008 Gerlach had raised almost $1.5 mill and still almost lost 52%/48% over a 2nd tier candidate.

This D+4, 58% Obama district (that also voted for Kerry like all of my top 6 races) is at worst a 50/50 pick up chance.

5. PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,

For the first time Dent has a serious top tier opponent. Having dispatched a serious of 2nd tier candidates Dent is in for the race of his life in 2010. Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan seems to be the real deal. As well as already being a public official Callahan has in the last quarter outraised Dent and they are basically equal in  

COH.

Dent must be worried as his campaign released a very dodgy internal poll showing him leading 58%/27% but refused to release the internals to go with it (a sure sign of bodgy polling)as is the claimed Obama approval rating of 41% compared to a Pennsylvania wide 57% (According to Gallup). Obama won this district in 2008 56%/43%.

Callahan has a shot here. Either way it will be competitive.

6. WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,

Washingtons’ 8th congressional district is one of a handful that are on the perennial target list for Democrats that we didn’t win in 2006 or 2008. Will 2010 be the year? Yeh quite possibly.

Obama carried this one 56%/42% in 2008 whilst Reichert was held to 52.78% by Darcy Burner.

So far so good.

As at the end of December Democrat Delbene led the COH race $773,327/$477,149 and had raised to that point $1,047,873 to Reicherts’$985,665. Whilst almost half of Delbenes’ total came from a loan from herself to the campaign she has shown herself to be adept at fundraising from others. Yep we have a self funder who can also fundraise.

Watch this one on election night – very closely.  

7. CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,

Well whoever would have thunk it; CA-03 as a competitive race!

Democrat Amri has just come off a $249K fundraising quarter and has more COH than  Republican Lungren ($739K/$526K), who only raised $138K. At this point in the cycle Amri has outraised Lungren as well ($871K/$732K).

Add to this the facts that Obama won the district 49.3%/48.8%, Lungren only won in 2008 by 49.49%/43.93% and the voter registration advantage for the GOP has decreased from 6.6% in 2006 to near parity (38.46%/39.04%)as of the start of 2010 and we have a race on our hands.

This one will be very interesting come November.

8. NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,

Yep hard to believe that a congressional district in Nebraska could be competitive but the 2nd shall be so. Remember that Obama carried this Omaha based district 50%/49% and the makings are there for a good race. State Senator Tom White is quite an adept fundraiser for a challenger too. After a 180K December quarter he has $343K COH compared to incumbent Republican Terry’s $543K COH. Given that challengers rarely lead the COH chase this one is set for a great race in November.

9. SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,

SC-02 will be know as the 2010 Moneybomb District! Why? because at the end of December incumbent Republican Joe “you lie” Wilson and his Democratic challenger Robert Miller have raised a breathtaking $5.5 Million between them. Wilson has $2,341,915 COH and Miller has $1,678,436 COH! To be honest Millers’ COH should by itself make this one competive.

However when you consider that Wilson was held to 53.74% in 2008 and that whilst McCain won easily 54%/45%, that is only 1% better than the neighbouring 5th, held by Democrat John Spratt and you have a barn burner in the making.

This race will be fascinating on election night – no doubt about it!

10. KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,

Despite its’ heavily Republican nature (McCain won here 58%/40%) this race will be competitive in November – absolutely.

Democrat Goyle is fundraising up a storm having raised $656K as at the end of December. His closest rival – Republican Pompeo – has only raised $429K. Last quarter Goyle managed a staggering (for a Kansas Democrat) $253K for the quarter and currently has $583K COH; a fair effort to say the least. Pompeo meanwhile managed only $78K for a COH total of $318K. Republican Kelsey FWIW, despite an impressive 233K quarter, has only $40K COH!

Love to see a poll here but definitely one to watch on election night.

This second group of Districts are likely to be competitive in November but are not there yet:

AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,

Democrat Joshua Segall had a $100K December quarter and is behind in COH by only $216K/$392K.

He ran in 2008 and kept Rogers to 46%/54% as McCain carried the District 56%/43%.

Not a friendly district for Democrats but if Segall can file some 6 figure fundraising quarters then this race could well be up there in November.

CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,

Democratic candidate (and Palm Springs Mayor) Stephen Pougnet is on the cusp of a very competitive challenge to GOP incumbent Mary Bono Mack – finally a top tier candidate here.

Obama carried this district 51.5%/46.9% and the GOP registration gap has shrunk from 10% to 3.48% between 2006 and the start of this year – 38.02%/41.50% currently.

The only fly in the ointment (apart from the national political environment!) is of course fundraising. Whilst Pougnet has outraised Bono Mack in two of the last three quarters and has slightly then than half as much COH as her $402K/$893K his COH actually went backwards by 10K last quarter despite a $150K quarter. Pougnet just needs a good solid $200K March Quarter IMHO to cash him up for the stretch and make this race definitely competitive.  

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart OPEN) – R+5,

With Mario Diaz-Balart bolting to run in the 21st to replace his retiring brother Lincoln this race will be one to watch.

McCain carried this one 50%/49% whilst Diaz-Balart was held to 53%. The Republican Voter registration advantage is only 3364; 137,913/134,549 as at the 2008 election. This is down from 21818 at the 21006 midterms.

Diaz-Balart had only $178K COH as at the end of December too BTW. Expect a top tier Dem to jump in here, maybe 2006 nominee Joe Garcia, and at that point this one should become competitive. The only Democrat currently running, Luis Rivera has yet to file a fundraising report having jumped in only a month or so ago.

MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,

Despite missing out on our preferred candidate State Sen Terri Bonoff there is every chance that this district that Obama carried 52%/46% in 2008 will be competitive. Democratic presumptive nominee Maureen Hackett only got into the race in October and self funded $103K of her $138K quarter ($129K COH). The March quarter will be telling but if as I suspect she has a really good go at fundraising up a storm this one will be competitive. The cloud on the horizon, of course, is incumbent Republican Paulsens’ $943K COH!

MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,

As luck would have it we have two viable candidates in this district that McCain carried 53%/45%.

Maureen Reed has 388K COH after a $208K December quarter.

Tarryl Clark (who I think will be the nominee) has yep $388K COH after a $294K December quarter. These are great numbers for both candidates. The only reason this one isn’t yet on the competitive list is batshit crazy Michelle Bachmanns’ $1 million COH!

If either Democrat can manage another $250K March quarter then this race is on for young and old despite its’ Republican bent.

OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,

Democratic candidate Brooks has her work cut out running against incumbent Republican Tiberi. He and his $1.2 mill COH! And his $449K December quarter haul. Brooks must we wondering what more she needs to do after her 4th quarter haul of $231K, leaving her with $328K COH – a very respectable set of numbers. Will this district that Obama carried 54%/44% be competitive in November? Dunno – but another 200K quarter will at least make Brooks (already a top tier challenger) quite viable.

Time will tell.

The third group of Districts are those that may, but are unlikely, to become competitive:

CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,

Obama won this district 49.5%/48.6% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 22% to a still whopping 15% as at Jan 1. That stat and Republican Campbells’ $1.031M/$171K COH advantage over Democrat Krom makes it unlikely that this race will become competitive. But it may. After all Krom has raised $299K so far this cycle including a reasonable but not great $90K in the December quarter. Campbell’s $500K December quarter makes it very tough though.

CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,

A 60K odd December quarter does not a competitive race make, especially when the COH only increases by $10K!. Busby has been beaten twice before by the current incumbent, and unfortunately seems headed that way again. Working in her favor is the fact that Obama carried the district 51.3%/47.1% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 14% in 2006 to 7.58% (39.91%/31.33%) as at the start of this year. However this will be a what might have been IMHO.

MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,

With former Democratic State Rep Shelley Madore only jumping in at the start of January this race has yet to solidify. On the down side is the fact that McCain carried this district 50%/48%. On the upside incumbent Republican Kline has (only!) $358K COH after a modest $152K December quarter.

Wait and see but it may be a bit late in the cycle for this one to fire up.

NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,

Yet another district where the Democratic candidate (Potosnak) has only just got into the race so it may take some time for things to play out. Obama carried this district 50%/49% and Leonard has only $347K COH (not a lot for a congressional race in New Jersey) and raised only 60K in the December quarter. Interestingly enough the Democrats have a 16K voter registration advantage here as at November 2009 – 121,553/105,943.

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

A $151K 4th quarter and $114K COH should be a promising start. Unless your opponent is the head of the NRCC and has $1.075 million COH. Oh dear.

Roggio seems to be quite a credible candidate but without a monster March quarter he just isn’t going to be in a position to be competitive in November.

McCain carried this district 53%/46% too btw – red but not ruby red.

And fourthly these districts have either 3rd tier candidates or candidates whose fundraising precludes a competitive race at this stage:

CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,

A 15K December quarter for leading Democrat Tim Allison means this one can’t be competitive; the resources simply aren’t there. This is all the more so given that Gallegly has $836K COH to Allison’s $35K . Pity because Obama carried this one 50.5%/47.7% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 10% to 5.75% (41.53%/35.78%) between 2006 and the start of this year.

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

Our candidate, 2008 nominee Jackie Conaway hasn’t even registered with the FEC – Game over.

Pity as Obama carried the district 49.4%/48.3% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined to 2% over the last 3 years!

CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,

2008 Democratic challenger Warner had a poor December quarter raising only 37K and his COH is only $123K compared to incumbent Republican Dreier’s $1.025 million! Obama won the district 51/47 and the GOP voter reg advantage has dropped from 11% to 4.5% as of the start of 2010.

Despite that the COH gap and Warners’ poor December fundraising means this one is unlikely to be competitive this November alas.

CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,

Obama won this district 49.3%/48.6% and the GOP voter reg advantage has decreased from 15% in 2006 to 8% as at Jan 5th 2010. Competitive race right? Wrong. Democrat Hedrick who only lost in 2008 48.8/51.2 just can’t seem to crank up the fundraising. Having raised only 29K in the December quarter he now trails in the COH race $95K/$519K.

Such a shame.

FL-10 (Young) – R+1,

State Sen Charlie Justice – what a great name for a congressional candidate – is the best candidate that the Democrats have run against republican incumbent Bill Young in years and years. It is such a pity then that Justices’ fundraising is so poor – $59K last quarter and $91K COH.

This is a District that should be competitive; Obama carried it 52%/47% and the Repub voter reg advantage declined from 169,982/153,728 in 2006 to 170,749/164,400 in 2008.

Alas but for that poor fundraising.

FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,

Democrat Lori Edwards won’t make this a competitive election with a $26K December quarter ($60K COH). This is all the more so given that presumptive Republican nominee Dennis Ross has $273K COH as at the end of December after an admittedly poor December quarter; raising only $76K himself.

This is a pity given that McCain only carried the District 50/49 and the Democratic voter reg advantage INCREASED from 2006 – 2008 from 153,189/166,794 to 164,780/192,958. WOW

As an open seat this one will almost certainly be a what might have been in November unless Edwards can seriously step up her fundraising.

FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,

The Democratic candidate Shannon Roberts has not filed a fundraising report despite filing to run over a year ago. Game over.

Pity as this 51%/48% McCain district, with it s’ repidly decreasing GOP voter reg advantage (189,872/158,363 – 2006 199,669/183,100 – 2008) should really have been competitive. Oh well.

IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,

The race has not yet really taken shape in this district that Obama carried 56%/43%. Democratic challenger Ben Lowe filed for the race halfway through November and raised a scant $14K. Republican incumbent Roskam on the other hand after a $350K December quarter is sitting on $547K.

We really won’t know whether this will be competitive or not until after the March fundraising filings come in. I suspect it won’t as both parties will be focused on tussles in the 10th, 11th and 14th.

Maybe in 2012.

IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,

2008 Democratic nominee Harper is back in 2010 in this district that Obama carried 54%/44%.

Unfortunately a $42K December quarter ($90K COH) does not cut the mustard against Republican incumbent Biggert who had a $142K December quarter ($637K COH).

Harper is a good, credible candidate who kept Biggert to 53% in 2008. Unless he has a monster March quarter this one just isn’t going to be competitive in November.

IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,

Whilst Obama carried this district 53%/46% this one only just scraped in as a potentially competitive race. And it won’t be with Democrat Gaulrapp raising a scant $14K ($7K COH) in the December quarter. Manzullo raised $150K ($355K COH) in the same period.

IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,

This race is really still just coming together. However that Democrat Maske managed to fundraise only $12K in the last 2 months of 2009 I think we can safely predict another cakewalk for Republican Latham in this district that Obama won 53%/46%. BTW as at Feb 1st the Democrats had a 8000 voter registration advantage 126503/118484.

MI-11 (McCotter) – R+0,

Incumbent Republican McCotter has been on Democratic target lists for years in this 54%/45% Obama district. He was even held to 51% in 2008. Despite this the Democrats have always failed to get a top tier opponent against him. Will 2010 be the year? It is hard to tell honestly but i doubt it. When Democrat Mosher declared at the start of 2009 she struck me (and the party) as being at best 2nd tier.

And this turns out to be the likely case with Mosher raising only $37K in the December quarter ($44K COH) compared to McCotters’ $118K December quarter ($579K) COH. Lets see what the March quarter reports bring but don’t hold your breath.

OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,

With McCain just shading Obama by less than 1% this District should be competitive. But it is unlikely. Whilst 2008 Democratic candidate O’Neill is back for another shot he did get thumped by alomost 20% in 2008. The other Democrat in the race – Greene – hasn’t even registered with the FEC to fundraise despite being in the race since November. Whilst LaTourette only has a modest $447K COH as at the end of November this race is highly unlikely to be a show stopper.

VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,

Another perennial Democratic target sees no less than 4 Democrats running here in 2010. And it is no wonder as Obama carried the district 53%/46% and this part of Virginia is rapidly bluing. Incumbent Republican Wolf has nothing to fear here though, as none of his putative opponents have more than $6K COH as at the end of December compared to Wolfs’ $346K COH. A really disappointing miss for team blue.

WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,

Democratic challenger Garin has $546 COH as at the end of December; incumbent Republican Ryan has $1.565 million. Game over in this 51%/47% Obama district.  

The last group of Districts are those that at this stage do not seem likely to competitive.

as we do not have declared Democratic candidates as yet!


FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,

MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,

MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,

MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,

NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,

NY-03 (King) – R+4,

VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,

WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,

So in summary:

10 competitive races.

6 races that should become competitive.

5 races that may become competitive.

15 races that should be competitive but are highly unlikely to be so.

8 races that should be potentially become competitive but won’t be unless we find a candidate.

Not a particularly pretty scenario for Democrats but not nearly as terrible as the GOP and the traditional media would have you believe.

On to November!  

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Can John Marty win?

My campaign manager recently drafted a letter to discuss the electability of my candidacy. Recently, we had a strong showing at the gubernatorial caucuses, stunning the pundits who said we didn’t have a chance.

As the Chief Author of the Minnesota Health Plan, I’ve helped organize over 70 signers onto the bill, including several of my opponents in this primary race. If I have the opportunity to serve as Minnesota’s next Governor, I will push for real changes. That is my promise to you. We will see real change!

I look forward to hearing any questions, comments or concerns relating to the electability of my candidacy and addressing them directly.

I hope you will join us.

Sincerely,

John



John Marty

DFL Candidate for Governor

http://www.johnmarty.org  

Traveling around the state, our campaign has heard from countless people who believe in John Marty’s vision, they respect his values, they trust his integrity — they say he could become a truly great governor. However, some say he can’t win.  Some say he’s too nice.

   John is actually more electable than other candidates this year, and here’s why:

   Many independent and Independence Party voters believe that both major parties are controlled by corporate interests and special interest money. John has consistently rejected lobbyist and PAC money, and he has been recognized, time and time again, for his courage and independence in standing up to powerful interests. John is the candidate with the credibility to win over those independents.

   At a time when voters are increasingly cynical about politicians, John has earned a reputation of being trust-worthy and honest. Research has shown that candidates do best, not by appealing to the center, but by holding firm convictions that, while they may be less popular, show evidence of commitment and integrity. John is the candidate who can overcome that cynicism, and win the respect of voters who know he will do what he says.

   Many Green Party members are former DFLers who left the party because it has too often surrendered to political expedience. John is the candidate who has demonstrated the courage of his convictions and speaks to the values of the Green Party.

   Tens of thousands of low-income people who were inspired and came out to vote in 2008 are once again feeling that the political system doesn’t care about them. John’s promise of affordable health care for all, through his single-payer, Minnesota Health Plan can give them renewed hope. His commitment to ending poverty — through his legislation for affordable childcare, living wages, and fair taxes legislation — gives them a chance to see a brighter future ahead. John is the candidate who can inspire and re-engage disenchanted voters.

   So why do some DFLers say that John Marty cannot win? Because John ran for Governor in 1994 and lost by a large margin.

   In that race, John was challenging a popular incumbent governor. And in 1994, the beginning of the Gingrich “revolution,” Republicans saw landslide victories across the country; not a single Republican incumbent in any gubernatorial race or U.S. House or Senate race lost that November. Even so, it wasn’t a perfect campaign. John has acknowledged his mistakes — and learned from them. He is sixteen years older and wiser and has the confidence and experience to match his vision and courage.

   Times change, and in 2010, John Marty is the right person at the right time.

   In recent years, John has repeatedly shown his ability to appeal to independents and Republicans. Although his suburban senate district had a four point Republican edge according to the court redistricting panel,  John has won by large margins — over 62% last time — which means he picks up both independent and Republican votes. John has shown an ability to win — not by avoiding tough issues but through his bold vision and ethical leadership.

   On caucus night, John exceeded expectations, outperforming seven other gubernatorial candidates in the straw poll, without being a wealthy, self-financed candidate, without accepting a penny of special interest money, and without compromising his values.

   We need John to be the DFL candidate for Governor, and delegates around the state are joining forces to see that John receives the party endorsement in April.  Please join us!

   Warm regards,

   Taina Maki

   Campaign Manager

   P.S. Please visit our new website at: JohnMarty.org.

New Jersey Redistricting with Christie in Office

The census should show that New Jersey will lose one congressional district. Currently, New Jersey has 8 Democrats and 5 Republicans representing it in the House of Representatives. The independent comission should aim for a bipartisan plan. I combined the districts of Rush Holt (D) and Leonard Lance (R) in a district that leans Democratic but Lance can win in it since it contains most of his current district. I strengthened all the other incumbents and kept the 10th and 12th district African American and Hispanic majority respectively. For this map, I tried to not make it too convoluted because realistically, I do not see that happening. Also, I calculated the partisan data for these districts by town and I tried not to split the towns. I had to in a few cases but the partisan data should be accurate most of the time. Also, I calculated it for the top two candidates only. Here are some helpful links

For election results by county: http://www.uselectionatlas.org…

For results by town: http://njelections.org/2008_ge…

For map of current congressional districts: http://www.govtrack.us/congres…

For map of the state: maps.google.com

Southern New Jersey

Southern New Jersey

Camden Area

Camden Area

District 1 Rob Andrews (D) Haddon Heights

Demographics: 17% African American, 10% Hispanic and 68% White

Partisan data: Obama McCain Percentages

   Camden 132785 57336 70%-30%

  Gloucester 73201 56669 56%-44%

  Salem 3927 2309 63%-37%

  Total   209913 116314 64%-36%

Communities of interest: Camden, Pennesauken

The district grows a bit more Republican. I removed the Democratic neighborhoods in Burlington County to help strengthen the 3rd district. I also added more of Gloucester County and the areas I added are marginal. I also added a heavily Democratic slice of Salem County. Overall, I made mostly minor changes so Rob Andrews should have no trouble with reelection. Status is Safe Democrat

District 2 Frank LoBiondo (R) Ventor

Demographics: 9% African American, 11% Hispanic and 76% White

Partisan data:  Obama   McCain

Cumberland 21720 14211 60%-40%

Cape May 22893 27288 46%-54%

Atlantic 58904 41306 59%-41%

Burlington 13718 16638 45%-55%

Ocean        60834 85988 41%-59%

Salem        1882 2733 41%-59%

Total   179951 188164 49%-51%

Communities of interest: Vineland, Atlantic City, Berkeley

LoBiondo looks safe in his current district but since Obama won his current district 54%-45%, a bipartisan plan would strengthen him. To strengthen LoBiondo, I mostly removed Democratic areas. I removed Democratic parts of Salem County and some Democratic areas in Cumberland County.  I also removed small parts of Atlantic County but Obama barely won them. The main additions in Burlington County are Medford and Southampton which lean Republican. To completely shore up LoBiondo, I added about half of Ocean County and McCain won a 25,000 vote margin in the portion I added. These changes help boost McCain’s performance from 45% to 51%, ensuring LoBiondo safety and his successor’s safety too. Status is Safe Republican.

District 3 John Adler (D) Cherry Hill

Demographics: 20% African American, 10% Hispanic and 64% White

Partisan data: Obama  McCain              

Salem        10235 9774 51%-49%

Atlantic 8926 8596 51%-49%

Gloucester 4065 3646 53%-47%

Cumberland 13199 8149 62%-38%

Camden        26474 16483 62%-38%

Burlington 116496 71652 62%-38%

Mercer        23577 2157 92%-8%

Total        202972 120457 63%-37%

Communities of interest: Cherry Hill, Burlington, Trenton

I definitely strengthened Adler so he will have no problems with reelection. I strengthened him a bit too much though. I removed all of heavily Republican Ocean County while adding territory in South Jersey that leans Democratic as well as more Democratic territory in Burlington County. I also added Trenton which voted 92% for Obama so that brings up the Democratic total. I had to give Adler Trenton because I do not see Christie signing a bill with Trenton in the 7th district. Overall, Adler should have no problem in this district. Corzine won it in his unsuccessful Gubernatorial run in 2009. Status is Safe Democratic.

Central New Jersey

Central New Jersey

District 4 Chris Smith (R) Hamilton

Demographics 8% Hispanic, 83% White

Partisan Data: Obama  McCain

Ocean      49355 74689 40%-60%

Monmouth      85774 106223 45%-55%

Mercer      3406 3099 52%-48%

Total      138535 184011 43%-57%

Communities of interest: Toms River, Lakewood, Freehold

Chris Smith seemed safe already, even with Democratic parts of Mercer and Burlington Counties inside his district. He lives in the Democratic parts of the old district. I removed his home from the district and placed it in the 7th. He would probably not mind moving though as long as his district is safer. I increased McCain’s percentage from 52% to 57% by removing most of the Democratic areas along the Delaware River and adding more Republican areas in Monmouth County. Smith should have absolutely no problem here. Status is Safe Republican.

Northern New Jersey

Northern New Jersey

Northwest New Jersey

Northwest New Jersey

District 5 Scott Garrett (R) Wantage

Demographics: Hispanic 6%, Asian 6%, 85% White

Partisan Data: Obama  McCain

Sussex       28840 44184 40%-60%

Warren       20628 27500 43%-57%

Morris       19274 26364 42%-58%

Passaic       35201 44572 44%-56%

Bergen       60808 76821 44%-56%

Total       164751 219441 43%-57%

Communities of Interest: Newton, Rockaway and Montvale

This district does not go through large changes but the few I made strengthen Garrett. I removed marginal towns in Bergen County such as Bergenfield and Ridgewood. I mostly did this because the 9th district needed room to expand. I added in some Republican townships in Morris County. I also kept Garrett’s home, Wantage in the district. Increasing the McCain percentage here should keep Garrett safe for until he retires. Status is Safe Republican.

District 6 Frank Pallone (D) Long Branch

Demographics: 11% African American, 13% Hispanic, 16% Asian and 58% White

Partisan Data:  Obama   McCain

Monmouth 62963 54210 54%-46%

Middlesex 102139 63016 62%-38%

Total        165102 117226 58%-42%

Communities of Interest: Edison, Asbury Park, New Brunswick

Pallone’s district gets a bit weaker. I removed Plainfield to give more African Americans to the 10th and since I tried to keep town boundries intact, I removed the small Democratic slice of Somerset County. I replaced it with Woodbridge and Edison which lean Democratic even though Christie barely won them. Still, Pallone is entrenched here and since the minority population is growing quickly here (the white population was 65% in 2000,) this district should grow more Democratic. Pallone should not have trouble. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 7 Rush Holt (D) Hopewell vs. Leonard Lance (R) Clinton

Demographics: 9% African American, 8% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 69% White

Partisan Data:  Obama   McCain

Mercer        80943 44967 64%-36%

Middlesex 66727 47797 58%-42%

Hunterdon 22211 28800 44%-56%

Somerset 44197 31149 59%-41%

Burlington 1005 1336 43%-57%

Total       215083 154049 58%-42%

Communities of Interest: Ewing, North Brunswick

This district may at first look like a sure win for Holt because he has represented his district since the 90’s and this district contains most of his old territory. Lance is a freshman but he is a moderate. He also ran a great campaign in 2008, winning against Linda Stender (D) by nine points in a district Obama barely carried. Stender was a good candidate and she almost beat Mike Ferguson (R) who formerly represented the 7th district in 2006. Also, the territory here is less Democratic than it looks with high income independents who swung heavily toward Christie in the Gubernatorial race last year. About the areas in the district, I had to remove Trenton because I think Christie would never sign a plan putting Lance in the same district as Trenton. Still, the district is Democratic with other parts of Mercer County as well as Democratic areas in Middlesex County. Overall, this should be a tough battle but Holt should win. Status is Lean Democratic.

Urban New Jersey

Urban New Jersey

8th District Bill Pascrell (D) Paterson

Demographics: 11% African American, 29% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 53% White

Partisan Data: Obama      McCain

Passaic       78056   27980 74%-26%

Essex 70,000 (+- 1,000)42,000 (+-1,000)62%-38%

Union 37,000 (+-1,000) 35,000 (+-1,000)51%-49%

Bergen       7888  8031         50%-50%

Total 193,000 (+-2,000) 113,000(+-2,000)63%-37%

Communities of Interest: Westfield, West Orange, Paterson, Clifton

I had to split some towns in this district so the vote totals are not exact. Overall, his district gets more Democratic by a few points. I removed all the Republican parts of Passaic County, leaving only Paterson, Clifton, Passaic and a few small Democratic suburbs. Obama won 74% of the vote in the 8th district’s part of Passaic. I added most of western Union County which Obama and McCain split but most of the time, Republicans should win that area. I also added a slice of Bergen County which is also split between Obama and McCain. These changes should not affect Pascrell much because Paterson and neighborhoods in Essex County keep this district strongly Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

9th District Steven Rothman (D) Fair Lawn

Demographics: 7% African American, 20% Hispanic, 16% Asian and 56% White

Partisan Data: Obama      McCain

Bergen       154063  100073 61%-39%

Hudson   26,000 (+-1,000)13,000(+-1,000)67%-33%

Total 180,000 (+-1,000)113,000 (+-1,000)62%-38%

Communities of Interest: Jersey City, Englewood, Hackensack, Garfield

Rothman’s district gets a touch more Republican but does not make many changes. I gave the district some northern Bergen County suburbs such as Bergenfield and Tenafly which lean Democratic. The only areas I removed were Fairview and North Bergen which are heavily Democratic. These changes should not affect the composition of the district strongly. Status is Safe Democratic.

10th District Donald Payne (D) Newark

Demographics: 55% African American, 17% Hispanic and 23% White

Partisan Data: 82% Obama, 18% McCain

Communities of Interest: Plainfield, Rahway, Linden, Elizabeth, East Orange, Newark

Since I split most of the towns in the district, I decided to just estimate the partisan data. Also, Payne’s district changes a bit. I did not remove many areas from it but I added Plainfield and the marginal Union County suburbs for a few reasons: Plainfield has an African American majority and since the 10th is New Jersey’s African American majority district, I decided it should be included. Also, the 10th helps shore up the 8th by taking in some marginal suburbs. I am not sure if the New Jersey legislature would go for this but since it would help keep the 10th African American majority, they would go for it. The district still remains heavily Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

11th District Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) Harding

Demographics: 11% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 75% White

Partisan Data:  Obama   McCain

Morris        93001 105967 47%-53%

Somerset 35121 38936 47%-53%

Hunterdon 7565 10292 42%-58%

Middlesex 2837 3185 47%-53%

Union        8295 9195 47%-53%

Essex        15347 17252 47%-53%

Total       162166 184827 47%-53%

Communities of Interest: Dover, Morristown

I weakened Frelinghuysen a bit by removing all of Republican Sussex and Warren Counties. I also removed parts of Morris County too. The new areas I put in the district are mostly in Somerset, Union and Essex Counties. The new areas are marginal but Obama overperformed in most of the district so Frelinghuysen should still be very safe. Status is Safe Republican.

12th District Albio Sires (D) West New York

Demographics: 10% African American, 53% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 30% White

Partisan Data: Obama 76% McCain 23%

Communities of Interest: Linden, Elizabeth, Jersey City, Hoboken, Newark

Since I split too many towns in this district, I had to estimate the partisan data. Overall, the district experiences few changes. I added all of North Bergen as well as Fairview in Bergen County. I also added a few neighborhoods in Elizabeth but besides this, I made few changes. Sires’s district gets more Hispanic and he remains safe. Status is Safe Democratic.