NY-23: Bill Owens On (Some Of) The Issues

Cross posted at Daily Kos

The other day, I shattered the ugly belief that the Republican candidate in the 23rd congressional district, Dede Scozzafava, was the most liberal. That post was a direct response to Markos’ post Thursday, which also included a critique of Democratic candidate Bill Owens.

One of the arguments made by Markos is that Owens is a “conservaDem” and that he would be just another member of the Blue Dog Coalition should he win in November. Owens, who was an independent but has changed his party affiliation to become a Democrat, was picked over two Democrats to run.  

Because of that, there is a high level of uncertainty about Owens. Progressives are skeptical (and rightfully so) because they see the Blue Dogs throughout the country and don’t want to see Owens end up just another Blue Dog. I also think that some of this skepticism is related to the district Owens is running in. He isn’t the first Democrat running in an upstate New York district whose views have been questioned and who has been considered a prospective Blue Dog. It apparently comes with the territory, whether it’s fair or not.

Here are two of Owens’ television ads which give you an idea of his approach. His emphasis is jobs and creating jobs in the North Country.

This is what we know about Owens based on the issues page available on his campaign website:

– His area of expertise is jobs. He has a seven-point plan for creating jobs. The plan includes: An emphasis on green energy, recruiting Canadian investment (if you’re familiar with NY-23, you know that it borders Canada), keeping Fort Drum strong, job training for veterans and graduates, investing in local infrastructure, higher education and agriculture.

– When it comes to health care reform, he supports all of the following: Controlling health care costs for the middle class; providing affordable health insurance to every American; preventing health insurance companies from using preexisting conditions and caps on lifetime coverage; giving small businesses and individuals access to lowest rates available to large corporations and government employees; allowing anybody to keep their existing coverage.

This part of his health care reform platform is very interesting:

Using profits from repayment of TARP funds, allowing the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy to expire, increased efficiency in our health care system (like putting all health care records on-line and requiring insurance companies to accept payment on-line), and cutting special interest tax loopholes (like tax benefits for companies that offshore jobs) to help pay for health care reform.

He also proposes the following: Allowing states to use savings from elimination of uncompensated care costs (Over $100 billion annually) to reduce taxes. In New York this would help prevent property tax increases.

Owens opposes Medicare benefit cuts, taxing health care benefits and increasing taxes on the middle class.

In addition to all of that, we also know the following:

– Owens supports the Employee Free Choice Act in its current form.

On top of asking about EFCA, the Watertown Daily Times also asked the candidates where they stand on a handful of other issues. Here’s where Owens stands on those issues:

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: Owens said he would have voted for the ARRA if he was in the House at the time. Scozzafava also said she would have supported it, but then gave critiques of the stimulus that showed she has some problems with the package, which tells me that maybe she would not have voted for it. (Let me just add that it is easy to say now you would vote for it, as a Democrat or Republican, given the ARRA’s positive impact.)

This is what Owens said about the stimulus:

Mr. Owens said he’d like to see more of the funds redirected toward job creation or assisting farmers.

“What you want to do with the stimulus dollars is set up a infrastructure base so that people going forward can independently make their decisions and hopefully be successful in their businesses,” he said.

Taxation of health benefits: Owens said in the article that he would have to look at it before giving a clear position. That article was written at the end of August. His website, which was recently updated, tells us that he is opposed to taxing health benefits.

Cash for Clunkers: Owens said he supports the CARS program (commonly known as Cash for Clunkers) and that he believes “It helped put labor back to work. And it did a lot of important things to get the economy moving in the right direction.”

Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act: Owens said he wasn’t familiar with this legislation (hard to imagine, given its profile) but he did say that “Everyone should be paid fair wages for their work, irrespective of any other factor that may come into play.” While Owens should know the legislation, that position is better than the position of his two conservative opponents. Scozzafava (a woman, I remind you) said she was oppose the legislation. Conservative Doug Hoffman also said he would oppose the bill.

Davis-Bacon: If you aren’t familiar with this (the Watertown Daily-Times apparently thought this was a good question to ask), Davis-Bacon is described as the following:

“The law, which has been in effect since the Great Depression, requires construction workers to be paid prevailing wages on public works projects.”

Owens said he would support Davis-Bacon staying in place.

Some of the other positions I have been able to find on Owens is that he supports taking tax breaks away from companies who send jobs out of New York to other locations.

Bill Owens thinks that companies receiving tax breaks from the government must live up to their end of the promise. That’s why he supports holding big businesses accountable by taking away tax breaks from companies that outsource jobs away from Upstate New York.

He also supports agriculture and rural development and this statement on his website gives us a glimpse into what his approach will be when it comes to agriculture:

That’s why Owens will fight to help local farmers and ranchers by using subsidies and import limits to make sure they get fair prices for their goods. And Owens supports Senator Chuck Schumer’s call for an investigation into why dairy farmers are getting paid lower and lower prices for their milk, while the price of milk remains high in stores. Bill will go to Congress and work for farm policy that works for producers as well as consumers to make our local economy work better for everyone.

New York has been hit hard by the dairy price crisis. One of the factors that plays into that are imports that are brought in from outside of New York (and in certain cases, outside of the country) and compete with local producers. Dairy farmers aren’t getting enough to cover the cost of producing milk and that has caused many problems for these farmers. It is key for Owens to address this issue. As an upstate representative, he will be talking about it a lot.

Social issues: There is very limited information out there, but this is what we know about Owens and two big issues: Choice and marriage equality.

On marriage equality, Owens said this to PolitickerNY:

On the wedge issue of same-sex marriage, Owens is to the right of his Republican opponent Scozzafava. He does not support full marriage–he opposes any federal action on the “states rights issue”–telling me, “I fully support equal rights for everybody, and certainly civil unions are in that mix. For religious reasons, I have difficulty with the use of the word marriage in that process.”

That same PolitickerNY piece said that “Both Scozzafava and Owens are pro-choice; Conservative Doug Hoffman is against same-sex marriage and is pro-life.”

To what degree Owens is pro-choice (there are other reproductive rights issues, obviously, that he should be asked about) remains to be seen.

Here’s the moment of truth: What ideology does Owens belong to? I have a hard time calling him a “conservaDem” or prospective Blue Dog. But I also have a hard time calling “progressive” or “liberal.” This is a man who has been an independent. And in the media accounts about this race, the word “moderate” has been tossed around. I tend to agree with the perception here: Owens is a moderate. We do need to know more (while I know this post is helpful, we need more information on him) but this is a start. The only thing people seem to know about Owens is that he isn’t a Democrat. That leads to immediate skepticism about what he will do, if elected.

Owens has made one thing clear: He will support the President. He’s the only candidate saying that and that’s something we need to focus on.

I hopefully outlined all the reasons why you shouldn’t support Dede Scozzafava. I should also add that she is opposed to cap and trade legislation (even though her predecessor, John McHugh, supported the climate change bill) and that she supports the Bush tax cuts. Owens does not support the Bush tax cuts and has put an emphasis on keeping taxes low for the middle class.

To close, I don’t believe Owens will be a Blue Dog should he be elected. But I also know that we need to know more about Owens. There has been a lack of access and information. Everything I have put here (with the exception of a few points) are items I had to look up on my own. There has been no clarification from the campaign on certain positions and that is something we need. We are working on getting that information, but for now, I hope this will suffice.

Sunday Senate Chat

Hello everyone, It has been a long long while since I have posted here on SwingStateproject and due to the lack of posting/sleep I figured it would be nice to write up a little summary of how the 2010 Senate races look about a year out and take a closer look at how things may look further down the road.

So far from what I can tell there are 5 Democratic seats that are vulnerable and another 6 Republican Seats that are vulnerable.

Our Democratic Incumbents that face a stiff challenge in 2010.

AR-Sen: (Lean Republican) Senator Blanche Lincoln is polling very weak back home in Arkansas as James post from last week clearly shows.  http://www.swingstateproject.c…

To make the situation worse shes polling badly against virtual unknowns. This race kind of surpirses me since Senator Lincoln was able to win in 2004 with a solid 56-44 as Former (can’t say that enough) President Bush won the state by roughly the same margin. I think the Senator has a serious base problem on both sides. The Democratic base is likely turned off by her flip-flop on the Public Option in the heatlh care while the Republican base in this southern state is likely more energized. This is also one of the few states where President Obama did worse the Senator Kerry in the last presidential election. If I had to pick any incumbent democrat that I thought would go down next election I would place my bets on Senator Lincoln.

CO-Sen: (No Clear Favorite) The question here is will the Democratic primary hurt or help? My personal guess is hurt. Andrew Romanoff the former speaker of the Colorado House is running to challenge the appointed incumbent Senator Michael Bennet. I haven’t seen to many polls for the primary or general election in this state. Rassmussen had a poll about two weeks ago that had the likely Republican nominee Former Lietenant Governor Jane Norton defeating both Democrats (surprise, surprise) http://www.swingstateproject.c…

The Good news for Bennett however is that he is going into this race with a decent financial advantage over the NRSCs newest recruit. Romanoff could prove a problem but I have a feeling that deciding to run to the right of the incumbent Democrat in the Democratic primary is the nail in the coffin for his campaign.

CT-Sen: (No Clear Favorite)

Senator Dodd is in trouble allright. The countrywide scandal isn’t likely to go away anytime soon (no doubt Dodd must be contemplating stabbing Micheal Moore). The Republicans are likely to run on the countrywide scandal and nothing else. While useing scandal as an evasion for providing ideas has proven to work as an effective way of running a campaign in some cases, it might not work here simply becuase of how democratic Connecticut is. One asset Dodd has going for him is that the Senate Ethics commitee cleared him of any wrongdoing which will work well for him in the ad wars. Dodds polling is also on a rebound (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1374) after having been in the tank for several monthes however he still has a lot of work ahead of him if he plans on getting reelected. The likely republican candidate is fomrer Represenatative Rob Simmons.

NV-Sen (No Clear Favorite)

Sen. Harry Reid the guy who beat his opponent by a 2-1 margin in 2004 and rose to become the leader of the democratic caucus is now in the fight of his politcal carrier. Senator Reids position is comparable to that of Senator Lincolns in Arkansas. Both are trailing virtual unknowns. However both have the triditional advantages of incumbency and the money that comes with that. There are only 2 ways I see Reid getting saved between now and next year. 1. He starts winning some legislative victories for his caucus and party or 2. He follows the Corzine (NJ-GOV) Strategy of throwing the kitchen sink and everyone thing else a 8-figure campaign warchest can throw.

PA-Sen: (Lean Democratic) Senator Specters recent change of heart at the sight of polling showing him getting crushed in the Republican primary has not been as easy of a transition as the senator would have liked. Specter is polling dead even with his Republican rival Former Congressman Pat Tomney. Senator Specter also has to watch his left flank where Congressman Joe Sestak is running a tough campaign to defeat Senator Specter in the democratic primary.

Republicans:

KY-Sen (Lean Republican) With Senator Bunning out of the running the democratic hopes for an easy pickup have been dashed and replaced with a competitive open seat fight. The major Democratic candidates are Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo. Mongiardo this week caught a little bit of the shoe in foot while recorder in room disease last week http://www.swingstateproject.c… While this might not be the nail in the coffin for his campaign it certainly isn’t helpful to tell your boss you expect him to fail at this job and you are not interested in the office you are seeking. The Republican frontrunner in both the general and priamry elections by small margins is Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Taking Grayson on in the Republican primary is Son of the libertarian movements hero Rand Paul. I would personally like to see Conway vs. Paul and I think that would be the best scenario for democrats in this race.

LA-Sen: (Lean Republican) Senator Vitter would be a okay if he could have stayed out of the moral hypocracy zone. Sadly for Senator Vitter the democrats have found the one candidate that can give him a decent challenge, Congressman Charlie Melancon of the 3rd district is running.

Senator Vitter will need to rely on the same strategy as Senator Dodd and hope that the Republican lean of his state will help him survive scandal.

MO-Sen: (Lean Democratic) Senator Bond of Missouri has announced his intentions to retire which has opened up his senate seat. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is running on the democratic side and has the primary locked up at the moment. Meanwhile Congressman Roy Blunt has also locked up his parties nomination. It doesn’t look like either side will have the fun of a competitive primary in this state. The head to heads have generaly shown Carnahan with modest leads over Blunt.

OH-Sen: (No Clear Favorite) Lt. Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner are leading the charge for democrats in there aim to take back Ohios remaining GOP senate seat. With Republican Senator George Voinovich retiring, republicans have turned to one of the worst places to recruit potential candidates, the bush adminisration. Former congressman and trade rep. Rob Portman has the republican primary locked up. Most head to heads show both Fisher and Brunner with slight leads over Portman. In the Democratic primary it looks like Fisher should be considered the favorite due to a large financial advantage.

NH-Sen:(No Clear Favorite)

This is another state where the Republican incument (Senator Judd Gregg) has retired and both parties have allready selected there nominees for the office. The Republicans have nominated appointed Attorney General Kelly Ayotte while the Democrats have nominated Congressman Paul Hodes. The polling on this race shows a close match up. It is to early to tell which of these two will end up winning however Ms. Ayottes constant dodging of questions related to critical issues certainly is not helping her cause.

Other races that could become competitive:

Illinois: Waiting to see if Mark Kirk can avoid a tough challenge from the right and if he wins how well he polls after the primary.

Florida: If Floridas economic troubles can start being blamed on its governor like the other states have started doing then Crists bid for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martinez may face some opposition.

North Caroinla: The Democrats problem here is that they cannot get a strong candidate to announce. It is quite clear that Senator Burr is vulnerable but without a strong opponent there is a strong chance he will be reelected.

I promise I will do a mop up job of fixing grammatical mistakes after I wake up for real and have some coffee in my system.

Anyway what are your thoughts on the competitive Senate races for the next election?  

Redistricting Louisiana

Using Dave’s Application, I have drawn a redistricting plan for Louisiana.  It appears that the state will be losing one seat in 2012, so the plan here has six seats.  There is currently only one Democrat in the entire delegation, and this plan aims to make that two or three Democrats, including two African-Americans.  I tried to make the map so districts are relatively compact, no parish is split among more than two districts, and altogether only 13 out of Louisiana’s 64 parishes are split at all.  

Louisiana’s legislature is currently Democratic controlled, although it may switch to GOP or divided control by 2012.  The governor is a Republican.  Nevertheless, the state is about 1/3 black, and so out of 6 seats, two should ideally be represented by an African-American.  With preclearance and VRA requirements, it may indeed be possible to draw a plan such as this and the Obama DOJ may even aim at making such a plan mandatory (even if state government control was all in GOP  hands).  Even with a huge loss of population in New Orleans, two relatively compact African-American Democratic seats centered on New Orleans (LA-2) and Baton Rouge (LA-6), respectively, are still quite feasible.  

The third possible Democratic seat, LA-4, would be in the northern part of the state (with GOP control, it would perhaps be hard to draw the seat this way, but if the legislature stays Democratic, it may be possible, especially because the seat as drawn is quite compact).  I must admit I am not that familiar with the intricacies of Louisiana politics, so perhaps this plan would not work at all, but I’m throwing it out there anyhow.

Photobucket

District 1 – blue

81% white; 9% black; 21% Obama; 78% McCain

Suburbs and exurbs of New Orleans and Baton Rouge, this district would become perhaps the most Republican congressional district in the country under this plan.

District 2 – green

50% black (50%+); 40% white; 66% Obama; 33% McCain

Due to large population losses following Katrina, this New Orleans based district has to necessarily expand geographically.  I make it go into areas south and west of the city, maximizing black and Democratic numbers.  The new district is less Democratic than the current one (which is 74% Obama) but whichever Democrat beats Cao in 2010 should have no trouble here come 2012.

District 3 – red

73% white; 18% black; 28% Obama; 70% McCain

This district includes a good part of “Cajun Country” in southern Louisiana as well as the eastern part of East Baton Rouge parish.  The new seat is heavily GOP.

District 4 – purple

55% white; 40% black; 44% Obama; 55% McCain

If Carmouche had run under these new lines, he would have very likely won last year, as the current district is only 40% Obama/59% McCain and Carmouche lost to Fleming by a couple hundred votes.  Whether Carmouche or another Democrat can win here in the future is another story, but the district might be competitive at some point in the next decade.

District  5 – teal

77% white; 17% black; 26% Obama; 73% McCain

The new 5th combines much of the current 5th and 7th districts in central and southwestern Louisiana, and should be a GOP stronghold under this plan.

District 6 – yellow

53% black; 42% white; 57% Obama; 41% McCain

This new district includes most of Baton Rouge and most areas bordering the state of Mississippi.  The current 6th is only 41% Obama/57% McCain and this plan flips those numbers around to 57% Obama/41% McCain.  The district is sufficiently Democratic and African-American to elect a black Democrat here.

So that’s my plan for Louisiana. I welcome your comments.

NY-23: Scozzafava’s Record At A Glance

Last night, Markos wrote that Republican Dede Scozzafava was “the most liberal candidate” in the 23rd congressional district race.

This doesn’t surprise. A lot of people, including people here in New York, have made the same argument. Part of it has to do with a lack of research on Scozzafava. The other half of it is a lack of information on the Democratic candidate Bill Owens, who conservatives call “liberal” and some progressives like Markos have called a “Blue Dog.”

After reading Markos’ post multiple times, it seems he uses the following as important points for his “liberal” labeling of Scozzafava.  

– She has been endorsed in the past by the very progressive Working Families Party.

– She is pro-choice and pro-marriage equality, which puts her at odds with the conservatives in the Republican Party.

– She voted to raise taxes when budgets required it.

First, those three points. The Working Families Party does endorse Republicans and allow them to run on their line. It happens, but they are more likely to back a Democratic candidate. Living in New York, my state senator is George Maziarz. He has been endorsed by the Working Families Party in the past because of his connections to people within the WFP.

For Scozzafava, being backed by the WFP can be contributed to a few things. She ran unopposed in 2008 and was not on the Working Families line when she ran for re-election in 2006. She also was not on the line in the 2002 general election. The only times since redistricting in 2002 that she appeared on the WFP line was in 2004 and 2008. In both elections, she ran unopposed. Therefore, the WFP endorsements were more by default than anything. It’s not as if she had to fight for those endorsements with another candidate.

The pro-choice and pro-marriage equality positions are very good and is a breath of fresh air for a Republican. But just as we don’t like it when Republicans try to define us based on social issues, we should not be guilty of the same when it comes to determining whether someone is progressive or not. Is she progressive on these issues? No doubt. But don’t judge a book by its cover.

The last point of Markos: She voted to raise taxes when budgets required it. In New York, that can be seen as a good and/or bad thing. There are good taxes and fees, bad taxes and fees and others that are somewhere in between. Any good progressive in New York will tell you that not all taxes are good and that not all taxes are bad. There is a middle ground. The problem in New York is that we have had too many regressive taxes and not enough progressive taxation. So giving Scozzafava credit for being liberal on this is misguided for the reasons I have shown.

But aside from Markos’ points, I also wanted to address some of the past votes Scozzafava has cast in the Assembly .

– An important issue for progressives in New York has been Rockefeller Drug Law Reform. A bill (A.6085) was passed in the Assembly and a deal was reached with both houses to reform the broken drug laws that led to extreme sentences for some of the most minor offenses. The roll call vote shows that Scozzafava voted against these reforms.

– Earlier this year, the Assembly passed a comprehensive gun package to combat gun violence and put laws in place to provide for better tracking of guns and provide for more accountability. The package includes 13 bills that were passed in the Assembly. Of those 13 bills, Scozzafava voted for only one. That bill was A.7733 and its purpose is to “Authorizes courts to revoke firearms license and seize the weapons of certain individuals.” Essentially, if the person is a threat to the public, courts could take away the firearms license and weapons of that person.

It is safe to say that Scozzafava is pro-gun and clearly anti-gun control of any kind. (I would give her credit for the single “Yea” vote, but it was a unanimous vote in the Assembly. Every Republican voted for it.)

Also, keep in mind that the package came after the shootings in Binghamton, which was a national news story and led to immediate action in the Assembly.

– Scozzafava’s record on the environment is mixed, at best. She voted against the Bigger Better Bottle Bill, but voted for the Green Jobs bill that was unanimously passed in the Assembly. The Assembly passed a package of environmental bills earlier this year. Of the 14 bills included in the package, Scozzafava voted for six of the bills and against eight of them. These were bills that were supported by progressives and the Democratic conference in the Assembly.

– Scozzafava voted against the Farmworkers Bill of Rights that passed the Assembly. This was seen as a pro-labor and pro-worker bill to support farm laborers who face unpleasant conditions in some instances.

– Voted against a bill that would provide additional compensation for police officers in New York City that use a foreign language in the course of their duties. She also voted against legislation that would give the attorney general jurisdiction to investigate and prosecute police misconduct.

– Voted against regulating the use of “no-knock” warrants and monitoring the use of all search warrants.

– Cast a vote against the 2010 Campaign Finance Reform Act, which would provide “for optional partial public financing of certain election campaigns in this state.” (Here is more on this legislation she voted against.)

– Voted against a bill that would require restaurants (with 15 or more outlets in the U.S.) to post the caloric information of menu items. Also voted against a bill banning trans fats in restaurants.

– Voted against legislation that would strengthen New York’s laws against unfair debt collection practices. Also voted against “legislation requiring debt collection firms to provide consumers a written “Debtor’s Bill of Rights” along with their initial debt collection communication.”

– Voted against expanding foreclosure protections. This bill included protections for tenants in property that is being foreclosed.

– Among the many areas, one area that Scozzafava seems to have a consistent record of voting “no” in is housing. This year, the Assembly has passed 20 pieces of legislation related to housing. Of those 20 bills, Scozzafava voted against several of them. The bills she voted against include: A rent increase cap, rent increases linked to inflation rate, Section 8 housing being included in rent regulation, landlord rental unit recovery, affordable housing preservation, excessive rent increase shield and expansion of the Loft Law.

The reality is this: When people say “don’t judge a book by its cover”, you should take their advice. The “cover” on Scozzafava was that she was this progressive Republican because she was backed by the WFP, supported a woman’s right to choose and has been a supporter of marriage equality. But the “book” tells the whole story (as it usually does). Scozzafava has a few positions that are more liberal (on abortion and marriage equality) but most of her positions are, at best, moderate-to-conservative. More often than not, however, she is a conservative.

One more thing: This statement on Scozzafava’s website came after President Barack Obama’s health care address a couple of weeks ago. One of the ideas she pushes? Tort reform. Not exactly the progressive approach to solving the health care crisis, but it’s one of the first (if not THE first) things brought up by Scozzafava.

The conclusion I draw from looking over numerous pieces of legislation is that Scozzafava on most issues is nothing more than your average Assembly Republican. Most of the votes that she did support the Democratic (or progressive) positions came when the whole Assembly voted unanimously for a bill. Scozzafava’s conservative positions are not reflected in the mainstream media, where she is labeled a “liberal” because of her stances on two social issues that, while important, should never define any candidate and should never be the sole indicator of a candidate’s ideology.

I see Scozzafava as someone who is far from the Glenn Becks of the world. But that doesn’t mean she is not conservative. The modern-day conservative is a different breed, but a lot of what Scozzafava stands for resembles an old school conservative. At best, she’s a moderate with conservative leanings. At worst, she’s a conservative Republican whose liberal stances on two social issues have given her an inaccurate label.

Would she be a Susan Collins-type, as Markos suggested? Probably not. Her record has shown that she hasn’t really been willing to buck the GOP party line on big issues (unless the whole GOP goes along with it). There are worse Republicans than Scozzafava, but she isn’t someone I would depend on to cross party lines and vote on a Democratic (and/or progressive) issue.

SSP Daily Digest: 10/2

CA-Sen: We’re starting to get fundraising reports filtering in, via the media and the rumor mill. And one of the most eyebrow-raising numbers comes from Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, of all places: he pulled in $330K in the third quarter, leaving him sitting on over $700K. He’s been given afterthought status as the NRSC and tradmed have rushed to fawn over Carly Fiorina, but his seeming success at tapping movement conservative wallets indicates that he won’t be going away quietly.

FL-Sen: When you have so many people giving you money, a few of them are bound to be very bad apples…. Alan Mendelsohn, a prominent eye doctor and chief fundraiser for the Florida Medical Association PAC, was also a key financial backer of Charlie Crist and a member of his transition team. Yesterday he was charged by a federal grand jury with mail and wire fraud, aiding and abetting fraud, and lying to federal agents.

IL-Sen: Maybe Mike Ditka doesn’t have the same iconic power that he used to, but if he does, then upstart GOP primary challenger Patrick Hughes got a really big get. The former coach of da Bears endorsed Hughes, who seems to be coalescing most of the hard-right, anti-Mark Kirk sentiment in the Senate primary.

MA-Sen: More showy fundraising numbers out of Massachusetts, where everyone is scrambling for money in view of the primary election a few months away. Most notable is AG Martha Coakley, whose only real weakness seemed to be a lack of money (as she already has statewide name rec, is the only woman in the race, and a big edge in the polls). That’s a weakness no longer, as she raised $2.1 million in less than a month. By contrast, Rep. Michael Capuano raised only $300K in that period; even with the $1.2 mil in his House account, his one advantage — money — has now vaporized. The big surprise is City Year founder Alan Khazei, who raised $1 million in just a week after a late start to his candidacy; the question is whether he can convert that into a decent share of the vote. Celtics co-owner Steven Pagliuca raised only $200K, but can dip into his own money to advertise.

NV-Sen: A long but must-read piece from the NYT looks at the tangled web between John Ensign and the Hampton family. Most significantly, it looks like Ensign not only went further than previously thought in trying to line up a job for Doug Hampton (the mistress’s husband) but then used his governmental power to do favors for Hampton’s new employer, Allegiant Air — certainly a violation of Senate ethics rules. And this is the Ensign that new GOP golden girl Sue Lowden was trying to circle the wagons around, even long after most of the rest of the local GOP had decided he was better served under the bus.

NY-Gov: This is interesting: Mitt Romney is moving to back ex-Rep. Rick Lazio in the governor’s race and hosting a Lazio fundraiser. Since polls show Lazio getting completely flattened by Rudy Giuliani if they face off in a gubernatorial primary, Romney’s expenditure of political capital is either a) a sign that insiders are pretty well aware that Giuliani won’t be getting into the governor’s race after all, or else b) a repayment for Lazio’s backing in the 2008 prez primary and a thumb-in-the-eye for primary rival Giuliani.

GA-12: More news out of the 12th: Wayne Mosley, a wealthy doctor and the NRCC’s recruit in the race thanks to his self-funding capacity (in fact, one of their top recruits in the nation, if you believe Mosely himself), had to drop out of the race. Mosely is being sued by his hospital for breach of contract, and apparently that’s taking up all his time and money. That leaves Thunderbolt Fire Chief Carl Smith and activist Jeanne Seaver as options to go up against Blue Dog Dem Rep. John Barrow.

HI-01: Here’s some good news for those of us who’d like to see the House stay nice and Ed Case-free: state Senate president Colleen Hanabusa is getting in the race for the Democratic nomination for the open seat in the 1st being vacated by Neil Abercrombie. Hanabusa’s main opponent looks like it will be ex-Rep. Ed Case, who beat Hanabusa in the 2002 race in HI-02; the progressive Hanabusa may have better odds against the moderate Case this time, as Case alienated a lot of the local party with an ill-advised primary challenge to Sen. Dan Akaka in 2006.

MO-03: Rep. Russ Carnahan picked up a Republican opponent: attorney Ed Martin. The 3rd is a D+7 district that has presented Carnahan with little trouble in the past.

NY-23: Dede Scozzafava finally hit the TV airwaves with a new ad, leading the polls but lagging both her opponents in the battle for the airwaves. Also, check out Robert Harding’s thorough examination at the Albany Project of Scozzafava’s not-so-liberal actual voting record in the Assembly, if you’re looking for a counterpoint to yesterday’s Daily Kos piece about Scozzafava.

SD-AL: Republican state Rep. Blake Curd, a Sioux Falls surgeon, is the first opponent to officially get in the race against Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Secretary of State Chris Nelson is still considering the race, though, and given his statewide profiel seems like he’d be likelier to win the GOP primary if he got in.

VA-10: Rep. Frank Wolf, the Republican dean of the Virginia delegation, has picked up a Democratic challenger in the form of attorney Patrick Lewis. Demographics are quickly moving this NoVa suburban/exurban district in the Democratic direction (it’s up to R+2 now), but Wolf has the kind of personal staying power that makes Lewis’s challenge an uphill fight.

OH-SoS: Bad news out of the Ohio Secretary of State race (on the short list as one of the nation’s most important downballot statewide offices): Franklin County Commissioner Marilyn Brown decided to end her bid for the Democratic nomination, preferring instead to run for re-election. While this may spare the Dems a contested primary, this leaves only the much more conservative state Rep. Jennifer Garrison in the race, which may leave the base unenthused for the general election.

ME-Init: Democracy Corps has a poll out on the anti-gay marriage ballot measure in Maine. They find 41% “yes” and 50% “no.” (Remember, as with California’s Prop 8, a “yes” vote is a vote against gay marraige.) These numbers are slightly better than the near-even split an R2K poll found a couple of weeks ago. But as Markos notes, D-Corps tested registered voters, while R2K looked at likely voters. (D)

DE-Sen: Castle Leads Beau by 5

Rasmussen (9/30):

Beau Biden (D): 42

Mike Castle (R): 47

Undecided: 6

Beau Biden (D): 49

Christine O’Donnell (R): 40

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4.5%)

These are the best numbers yet for Beau in a head-to-head against Castle. Back in March, Public Policy Polling had Castle up by 8 points, and a debatable Susquehanna Research poll from May had Biden trailing by 21 points.

Biden’s back from Iraq, and everyone — Castle, included, it seems — is waiting for him to make the first move. There have been some mixed signals out of Delaware on Biden’s intentions, but the overwhelming sentiment is that he’ll jump into the race soon. So what’ll it be for Castle: retiring to catch some rays in Florida or jumping into a Senate campaign?

RaceTracker: DE-Sen | DE-AL

NY-23: Money Where Their Mouths Are

It looks like the independent expenditure war in New York’s 23rd District is heating up in a big way. The Club For Growth reported a $275,000 media buy attacking Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava earlier this evening with the FEC, on top of a $15K direct mail piece in support of Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman.

The party committees are also in the thick of it, too: the NRCC upped their ad buy against Owens by $35K, raising their total tab for the open seat race to just north of $150,000. The DCCC dropped another $65K on media buys earlier this week, too, bringing their total amount spent on Owens to $127K. I’d expect those buys to snowball in the coming days, as the committees try to neutralize the Club For Growth’s investment.

NJ-Gov: Two More Pollsters Show a Tightening Race

Monmouth University (PDF) (9/24-29, likely voters, 9/8-10 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40 (39)

Chris Christie (R): 43 (47)

Chris Daggett (I): 8 (5)

Undecided: 8 (7)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

As we’ve seen from some other polling firms, Corzine’s numbers haven’t really improved, but Christie’s keep dropping – take a look at the Pollster chart. Monmouth also shows the race tied among registered voters, 40-40.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/28-9/30, likely voters, 8/3-5 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 42 (40)

Chris Christie (R): 46 (48)

Chris Daggett (I): 7 (-)

Undecided: 5 (9)

(MoE: ±4%)

R2K didn’t ask about Daggett last time (which was a couple of months ago), but he seems to be drawing from Christie and the undecided column, rather than Corzine, which is good. Incidentally, “even the conservative” Wall Street Journal has a new editorial out tomorrow, hammering Christie for running an “empty” campaign. They hit him hardest for his failure to articulate any plans for dealing with Jersey’s high property taxes (this is the WSJ, after all) – hopefully this attack will resonate with the anti-tax GOP base and keep them home or spur them to vote Daggett. The WSJ finishes with this:

Even if Mr. Christie ekes out a win because Mr. Corzine is so unpopular, the Republican will arrive in Trenton with a mandate to do what he campaigned on – nothing.

Ouch! With friends like these….

Ohio, Part 4

By: http://thepolitikalblog.wordpr…

This is the last part of my review of the swing state Ohio.

Republican Ohio

What parts of Ohio vote Republican?

All of it, of course, except for the parts that vote Democratic.

That is a pretty facetious answer to a fairly serious question, but there is something to it. Blue Ohio has a set of defined, separate characteristics. Red Ohio does too, but not to the same degree. It is far easier to describe Democratic Ohio than Republican Ohio.

The following map is a good beginning in exploring Republican Ohio.

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These are the places which most heavily supported John McCain (for those who are curious, the most Democratic counties were Cleveland, Toledo, Ohio University, and Youngstown). They are located primarily in the southwestern portion of the state, away from the Democratic ‘7’. Interestingly, practically none are part of Appalachia – considered Obama’s weakest region in the country.

Southwest Ohio historically – and to this day remains – the most conservative part of Ohio. Geographically, it is the Republican base; even in Democratic landslides, it often will vote for the red candidate.

There is another trait the highlighted counties have in common: most are semirural and somewhat less populated. Another map helpfully illustrates this.

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Compare the two maps. Very few of the counties in which John McCain took over 60% of the vote were populated enough to appear on the above map. There is very little overlap between the reddest parts of Ohio and the densest parts of Ohio – except, importantly, the suburbs of Cincinnati.

More below the flip.

This does not mean, however, that all counties with over fifty thousand votes went blue. Quite the opposite, in fact: many of the yellow counties voted for McCain. Only counties with over one hundred thousand votes tread Democratic. Take a look:

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What does this mean?

The yellow counties are an imperfect representation of what famously cost John Kerry the state: the exurban reaches of Ohio, especially in Columbus and Cincinnati. Most of them are well-off and home to middle-class folk, like exurbs in general. White flight played an important role in their formation (although it was not, as some maintain, the biggest motivator). Both McCain and Bush got their largest margins from these places; they constitute an important – perhaps the most important – block of the GOP coalition today.

This has not always been the case. Before 2000, Hamilton County (Cincinnati) tended to give Republican candidates their biggest margins in the state. Today, it has been replaced by the surrounding counties, rapidly growing exurban communities. Nevertheless, Hamilton County remains a reliable Republican stronghold.

Contrary to popular perception, the city Cincinnati itself is not that conservative (not anymore); its deep red suburbs account for the county’s Republican lean. Cities in general never vote Republican, but in GOP strongholds – like Cincinnati – the overwhelmingly red suburban vote outweighs their Democratic lean.

For a visual illustration of Cincinnati’s importance, here is how George Bush did in Ohio:

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Cincinnati and its surrounding exurbs provide the largest Republican margins. The exurbs of Columbus are going heavily Republican; so is much of eastern Ohio.

Note, however, that George Bush only won the state by 3.5%. Unfortunately the Times does not have maps of stronger Republican victories (e.g. 1988, 1980).

How has the Republican base changed since 2000? The following map provides a sense of how things stand today.

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There is not too much to show. One can see a coherent north-south divide; northern Ohio has become more Democratic, southern Ohio less so. Most of the rural southwest is fairly lukewarm to Obama – but so is the blue east. Interestingly, the exurbs seem to have moved Democratic more than their rural brethren. Note that most counties are blue because the country as a whole voted more Democratic in 2008.

It is difficult to tell how much of this is permanent and how much was specific to 2008. Perhaps the exurban counties were only bluer because of the housing crisis. Certainly a place like Cincinnati (with its large black population) voted for Obama as a person, not the Democratic party. Then again, maybe not; the county supported Bush ’04 by only 5%.

But as a whole, red Ohio seems to vote the same way it has for the past few years (or generations). Neither it nor the Ohio Republican Party has changed much in recent years. The same cannot be said for the Democrats.