Swing State Project

With the midterms only 10 months away it is time now to cast our eyes over the biggest state in the country – California.

How will we fare in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

All of the doom and gloom amongst naysayers about our chances in this years midterms simply does not tally when we drill down into race by race analysis in California.

For a start I think that all 34 Democratic incumbents are as safe as houses – yep including McNerney in the 11th and Sanchez in the 47th.

So what about all 19 Republican held districts?

Here we go:

CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,

Obama/McCain – 42.7/55

Kerry/Bush – 36.6/62

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 33.12/45.09

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 33.81/43.18

House result 2008 (D/R)- 42.1/57.9

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+11 district next year that we don’t already hold?

We don’t even have a candidate yet.

Enough said.

CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,

Obama/McCain – 49.2/48.7 (1592 Votes!)

Kerry/Bush – 40.8/58.2

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 36.14/42.70

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 37.73/39.58

House result 2008 (D/R)- 44/49.5

This one is definitely going to be competitive!

Bera led the COH race as at end of September 585K/446K – an impressive effort indeed. With all other Democratic candidates withdrawing and endorsing him and with a rapidly closing Voter reg gap this district will be the scene of a torrid race. Note also that Obama narrowly carried it.

CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,

Obama/McCain – 43.9/54

Kerry/Bush – 37.4/61.3

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 30.28/47.86

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 31.14/45.83

House result 2008 (D/R)- 49.7/50.3

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don’t already hold? Especially as we don’t have a candidate yet and 2006/8 nominee Charlie Brown is definitely not running.

Enough said.

CA-19 (Radanovich OPEN) – R+9,

Obama/McCain – 46/52.1

Kerry/Bush – 37.9/61.1

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 36.09/46.73

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 37.19/43.62

House result 2008 (D/R)- Unopposed

Our candidates are seriously 2nd tier and need to step up massively if this is to be competitive. Do we have a State Rep who can run?

CA-21 (Nunes) – R+13,

Obama/McCain – 42.1/56.3

Kerry/Bush – 33.7/65.4

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 33.84/49.55

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 34.89/46.76

House result 2008 (D/R)- 31.6/68.4

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+13 district next year that we don’t already hold?

We don’t even have a candidate yet.

Enough said.

CA-22 (McCarthy) – R+16,

Obama/McCain – 38.3/59.7

Kerry/Bush – 31/67.9

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 30.06/51.21

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 31.29/48.31

House result 2008 (D/R)- Unopposed

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+16 district next year that we don’t already hold?

We don’t even have a candidate yet.

Enough said.

CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,

Obama/McCain – 50.5/47.7

Kerry/Bush – 43.1/55.7

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 34.15/44.12

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 35.83/41.82

House result 2008 (D/R)- 41.8/58.2

This one should be competitive but one of our candidates needs to put the foot down on the fundraising pedal. Is there a top tier candidate out there?

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

Obama/McCain – 49.4/48.3

Kerry/Bush – 39.9/58.8

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 34.52/43.76

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 37.77/39.29

House result 2008 (D/R)- 42.2/57.8

This one too should be competitive but either Conaway fundraises like crazy or we get a better candidate.

CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,

Obama/McCain – 51/47

Kerry/Bush – 43.7/55.1

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 33.54/44.42

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 35.67/40.50

House result 2008 (D/R)- 40.4/52.7

On paper this should be right up there but is Warner the guy to do it?

If so better start raising the dough.

CA-40 (Royce) – R+8,

Obama/McCain – 46.6/51.1

Kerry/Bush – 38.4/60.2

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 32.04/46.78

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 33.86/42.75

House result 2008 (D/R) – 37.4/62.6

No Candidate no chance. Simple really. Even with a good candidate it is a tough district.

CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,

Obama/McCain – 43.7/54.2

Kerry/Bush – 36.9/61.8

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 32.18/47.80

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 34.12/44.20

House result 2008 (D/R)- 38.3/61.7

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don’t already hold? Only if Lewis bails out owing to ethical “issues”!

Enough said.

CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,

Obama/McCain – 44.9/53.2

Kerry/Bush – 36.9/62

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 28.88/49.79

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 30.56/46.16

House result 2008 (D/R)- 39.8/60.2

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don’t already hold?

Enough said.

CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,

Obama/McCain – 49.5/48.6 (2532 Votes)

Kerry/Bush – 39.9/59

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 31.98/46.89

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 34.63/46.40

House result 2008 (D/R)- 48.8/51.2

Simple equation here. We have the candidate in Hedrick. If he can lift his fundraising game he may make a real of this. Remember he was the guy who delivered that 2008 result above.

CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,

Obama/McCain – 51.5/46.9

Kerry/Bush – 43.1/56

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 35.85/45.53

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 37.81/42.08

House result 2008 (D/R)- 41.7/58.3

Pougnet is the mayor of Palm Springs and this will be a zinger IMHO. His fundraising is going well (347K COH as at end of September) and he obviously has a very high local profile.

CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,

Obama/McCain – 47.9/49.8

Kerry/Bush – 41.6/56.9

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 30.49/46.84

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 32.02/43.49

House result 2008 (D/R)- 43.1/52.6

No candidate presently this one is at best a long shot.

CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,

Obama/McCain – 49.3/48.6 (2479 Votes)

Kerry/Bush – 40.4/58.3

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 27.13/49.32

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 29.40/44.77

House result 2008 (D/R)- 40.6/55.7

An intriguing district. Terribly low % of registered Dems and yet Obama won the district. Krom needs to put the foot down with her fundraising (126K COH as at end of September is not great) to make this an outside chance.

CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,

Obama/McCain – 45.1/53

Kerry/Bush – 36.5/62.5

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 28.50/47.96

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 30.94/43.86

House result 2008 (D/R)- 37.5/58.3

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don’t already hold?

Enough said.

CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,

Obama/McCain – 51.3/47.1

Kerry/Bush – 43.9/55.2

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 29.62/43.64

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 31.40/40.27

House result 2008 (D/R)- 45.2/50.3

We lost our best candidate here (Roberts), Busby is I think flawed and Emblem has yet to make a splash. And yet Obama won the district.

Either Emblem steps up her fundraising or we get a better candidate IMHO.

CA-52 (Hunter) – R+9,

Obama/McCain – 45/53.4

Kerry/Bush – 37.7/61.4

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 29.87/45.66

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 31.41/42.90

House result 2008 (D/R)- 39/56.4

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+9 district next year that we don’t already hold?

We don’t even have a candidate yet.

Enough said.

So in summary:

Competitive race:

CA-03, CA-45

Competitive if fundraising steps up:

CA-44, CA-48

A chance if the candidate steps up their fundraising or we find a more viable candidate:

CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-50

Long shot:

CA-19, CA-40, CA-46

Forget it:

CA-02, CA-04, CA-21, CA-22, CA-41, CA-42, CA-49, CA-52.

Not bad 2 definitely competitive races and two more that could become so if our candidates step up the fundraising. Another 4 as well that could be competitive in the right circumstances. Not bad in an environment that is supposedly toxic for Democrats.

A last word also on the two supposedly vulnerable Democratic Districts:

CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,

The GOP lost their best candidate when Del Arroz withdrew. If presumptive frontrunner Grape Grower Brad Goehring makes it out of the torrid Primary (7 candidates and counting) he will still remain a 2nd tier candidate, albeit one that can self fund. McNerney will be waiting with his 675K COH as at end of September. Following from an 11 point victory last year and near parity in voter reg (in 2006 there was a 5% GOP edge) McNerney will be just fine.

CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,

Does anybody really think that a D+4 District is going to flip in California next year? The Tran/Pham GOP Primary promises to be a zinger and the winner gets to take on an incumbent who got 69% of the vote last year and has 769K COH as at the end of September as well as a 12% party reg gap.

This one ain’t gonna flip.

What say you?

Scott Eliott (ElectionProjection.com) is up with his first nationwide ’10 projections, and it isn’t so bad.

Eliott is a wingnut – but he’s as objective as they come w/r/t election data. For example, he called every Senate race correctly in ’06 and just missed 1 in ’08.

His numbers after ’10:

Senate: 56-42-2  (D -2)

House:  249-186  (D -8)

I believe would be depicted as a huge D victory, a virtual endorsement of President Obama’s agenda by a majority of the country.

Scott Elliot has his views, which I disagree with strongly. But he runs a clean site, free of the virtol associated with the typical Wingnut blog (perhaps except for the banner ads).

His record is stellar – he was right on 48 of the 50 states in the ’04 election (he switched IA and WI). He called all six of our Senate gains in ’06, with obvious pain in his words.

Eight days before election day ’08, he said

Eight days from Election Day, here is this blogger’s conclusion:  Barack Obama will win this election in a landslide.  He will capture at least 350 electoral votes and win the popular vote by 7% or more.

2010 details – w/r/t the Senate, he currently sees

D losses in DE, CO, CT

D gain in OH

w/r/t the House, the current projection shows

R gains in

AL-02, FL-08, ID-01, KS-03, LA-03, MD-01, NM-02, OH-15, PA-07, TN-06, TN-08, and VA-05

While I disagree with him w/r/t FL-08, there will be a lot of wingnut money flowing to whomever opposes Grayson this year.

Eliott also projects D gains in

DE-AL, IL-10, LA-02, PA-06

His formulas are interesting as well. http://www.electionprojection…. –

a quantitative formula based on polls and pundits.

He even uses partisan polls – but includes a 3% correction factor.

That the Northeast has been trending blue in recent cycles is self evidently true. Will it continue in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Whilst current polls don’t look too good for incumbent Democrats across the Northeast I believe that we have hit the bottom. Now that Health Care reform is done I believe that the polls will rebound for Democrats, particularly in the Northeast.

Thus it is my contention that despite the current challenging environment the Northeast will continue its long term move towards the Democratic Party, despite a sure to be spiteful debate on cap and trade and despite an economic outlook that is improving in fits and starts.

The US Census defines the Northeast region as including 9 states as follows: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And aggregating across all 9 states the lay of the land looks like this:

States that voted for Obama: 9/9

Governors: 5/9

US Senators: 15/18 (Counting Sanders and Leiberman as Dems)

House Districts: 69/83

State Senates: 8/9

State Houses: 9/9

Where I think a race is a safe Democratic hold I won’t be saying anything about it.

Going state by state then:

Connecticut

Gubernatorial – With GOP Gov Jodi Rell not running again it is very likely to be a Dem pickup.

US Senate – Both Dems. If Dodd runs he may lose for any other Dem it is a safe hold.

US House – All Dem, all Safe (including Himes in the 4th.)

State Senate – 24D/12R – Safe

State House – 114D/37R – Safe

Maine

Gubernatorial – Whilst it seems that half of Maine is running for the open Gubernatorial mansion I believe that the Democratic nature of the state will lead to a Democratic retention.

US Senate – Both Repubs! Not on ballot in 2010

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 20D/15R – Safe (Margin is growing).

State House – 95D/55R – Safe

Massachusetts –

Gubernatorial – Whilst Deval Patrick really hasn’t set the world on fire the 2nd tier nature of his potential opponents should see him safely re-elected.

US Senate – Both Dems (at least after the upcoming special election.)

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 35D/5R – Safe

State House – 144D/16R – Safe

New Hampshire

Gubernatorial – Safe Dem

US Senate – definitely a race to watch. I will be stunned if Hodes loses here. Hodes has almost $1 million dollars COH and there is a divisive GOP primary in the offing also. New Hampshire, whilst less Blue than almost all of the other states in the North East, is not going to elect a Republican as US Senator in 2010.

US House –

NH-01 – There has been a lot of focus on both of the New Hampshire congressional races. I don’t get it to be honest – Shea Porter will win, not by much but she will win.

NH-02 – Again a lot of focus here including a lot of hand wringing about how vulnerable it is to switch. Not gonna happen folks. Gore, Kerry and Obama all won this district – Obama by 13 points – and we have a quality field of candidates  running AND a divisive GOP Primary. Lead Dem Ann McLane Kuster has 250K COH as at the end of September.

State Senate – 14/10 – No change in 2008 really locks in our 2006 gains. If this one flips it will be a bad night for us.

State House – 223D/176R – Safe

New Jersey

Gubernatorial – Repub – Not on ballot in 2010

US Senate – Both Dems

US House –

NJ-02 – If State Senator Jeff Van Drew finally steps up and runs this race becomes very competitive. Hopefully he won’t wait until 2012. If State Sen Jim Whelan runs it could also get competitive in this district that Obama won 54/45 and that Bush won by less than 1% in 2004.

NJ-03 – Adler is safe.

NJ-04 – Gore carried this district and Obama lost 47/52 so a good candidate here is a must to get it on the radar instead of the second tier candidates we have run thus far.

NJ-05 – Unlikely to be on the radar in 2010.

NJ-07 – This district is winnable particularly with a freshman GOP incumbent. Obama carried it 51/48 also. Surprising then that there is no declared Dem candidate yet. Potentially a top tier race that will probably be a big miss for the DCCC.

NJ-11 – The safest GOP district in NJ and a rarity in the Northeast, (outside Pennsylvania,) a generically safe GOP district. Short of a fantastic candidate this one won’t be on the radar.

State Senate – Up in 2011

State House – Up in 2011

New York

Gubernatorial – Safe for Cuomo.

US Senate – Gillibrand will get over the line against 3rd tier opponents and Schumer is Safe too.

US House –

NY-03 – Unless Suozzi or another top tier candidate emerges then this will be a big miss for the DCCC.

NY-13 – McMahon is safe.

NY-20 – Murphy will prevail – bet on it. He had almost 1 Mill COH at the end of September!

NY-23 – One of two really competitive races in Dem held districts in NY. I think Owens will prevail, especially against Hoffman.

NY-24 – After a scare in 2008 Arcuri will be safe.

NY-25 – Maffei is safe.

NY-26 – Unless a good candidate pops up this will be a big miss for the DCCC.

NY-29 – Massa has his work cut out for him – that’s for sure. But for me Massa by a nose. Why? When was the last time the NY GOP won a District off us? Massa’s 500K COH as at end of September will help too.

State Senate – 32D/30R – A chamber to watch – big time. I expect us to hang onto or increase our majority.

State House – 109D/41R – Safe

Pennsylvania

Gubernatorial – A real worry this one could flip.

US Senate – 2 Dems – Whoever emerges from the Dem primary will beat Toomey. The good folk of Pennsylvania wouldn’t be crazy enough to sent Toomey to the US Senate would they?

US House –

PA-03 – Dahlkemper will have her work cut out to win this District that Obama JUST lost. Race to watch.

PA-04 – Altmire will be safe.

PA-05 – This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans.

PA-06 – Generic Dem beats generic Rep – Period. Doug Pike’s massive COH advantage (largely self funded) of 750K as at end of September should help him pull this one out.  

PA-07 – Not quite sure why so many people are predicting this will flip. Top tier candidates for both parties makes for a tough race but this district was won by Gore, Kerry and Obama. Add in a competitive GOP Primary and it is Dem for me.

PA-09 – One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans. This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. Yep just like PA-05.

PA-11 – Against Lou Barletta Kanjorski will be fine. Tough part of Pennsylvania for Democrats though.

PA-12 – Murtha is vulnerable but i expect him to survive (just).

PA-15 – Like PA-06 Obama carried every county in this one and yep it is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Dem Callahan is a top tier challenger and is fundraising like one (325K COH as at end of Spetember).

PA-16 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th and 9th unlikely to be a priority.

PA-18 – In theory could be vaguely competitive in 2010 (Bush only got 54% here in 2004) but unlikely given the low hanging fruit in the 6th and 15th.

PA-19 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th, 6th and 16th unlikely to be a priority in 2010, unless Todd Platts lands the Government job he is chasing. Even then unlikely to be competitive.

State Senate – 20D/30R – Safe GOP

State House – 104D/99R – Definitely a chamber to watch.

Rhode Island

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Don Carcieri is term limited so either a Dem or former Repub Sen now Indy Lincoln Chaffee will be elected. The GOP bench here is terrible.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 35D/5R Safe

State House – 69D/6R Safe

Vermont

Gubernatorial – With GOP Gov Douglas not running the GOP have scored their best possible candidate in Lt Gov Brian Dubie; who will lose to a Dem (unless the Progressive Party act as a spoiler).

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 28D/7R Safe

State House – 95D/48R Safe

So with 10 months until election day it is off to the races!

What do you think?

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

Switzerland’s landslide vote to ban Muslim minarets surprised many pundits and commentators, more familiar with the nation’s image as a bastion of tolerance and European enlightenment.

These results, in fact, are not so surprising. They derive from the peculiar structure of Swiss democracy, which effectively creates a voter base less diverse than the general public. These voters are generally predisposed to support such initiatives as the minaret vote.

I am specifically talking about Swiss citizenship. Becoming a Swiss citizen implies that one has become part of the Swiss people, and the Swiss have a very strict definitions of what this means. Since – of course – only citizens may vote, this strictness directly impacts the Swiss electorate.

While Switzerland may have an image as a tolerant place, its naturalization policy is one of the least tolerant in the Western world.

More below.

Achieving citizenship can be nearly impossible. Some communities routinely reject applicants connected in any manner to Africa or the Balkans, even if have they lived in Switzerland their whole lives. Many applicants must appear before a local citizenship committee, which asks deep-probing questions such as whether the applicant “can imagine marrying a Swiss boy,” or if said applicant likes Swiss music.

As a result, 21.9% of the Swiss population is foreign – one of the highest rates in the world. An aspiring immigrant may move to Switzerland, but neither he, nor his children, nor even his grandchildren will be guaranteed citizenship. Nearly 90% of Swiss Muslims face this situation, foreigners in a land some have lived their entire lives in.

Because Swiss immigrants are denied citizenship, they naturally cannot vote: only the Swiss people can. It is no wonder then, that Switzerland’s selectively chosen electorate regularly passes initiatives like the minaret law. Or that the anti-immigrant Swiss People’s Party won the most seats in the 2007 federal elections.

This is not to say that the Swiss people are particularly intolerant or bigoted. It is a naturally human tendency to be suspicious of outsiders. Nativist sentiments exist throughout the world, whether in English disdain for Eastern Europeans, Japanese dislike of white gaijins, Muslim discrimination against black Africans, or Russian pogroms against Jews.

The problem is that, by restricting citizenship (and therefore the ballot) to only certain groups, Switzerland’s peculiar system encourages this inherently human flaw. Switzerland is not the only country with xenophobic sentiment; many Americans, for example despise Spanish-speaking Latinos. But in the United States, these Latinos (or their children) can vote; in Switzerland 90% of Muslims can’t vote, because they are denied citizenship. That is why the Swiss People’s Party can run an ad like this:

The Swiss People’s Party won that referendum. Republicans, on the other hand, wish to appeal to the Latino electorate; very few would dare do such a thing.

If Switzerland is to prevent more minaret initiatives from passing, it should make naturalization easier – at the very least, for example, it could grant citizenship to third-generation citizens. In doing so, Switzerland can follow America’s lead, a country whose naturalization policy is among the most progressive in the world. America is also the world’s superpower. That is not a coincidence.

Quick update on the app. Because so many of you have been using the app (and it was discussed on the DailyKos front page last weekend) and because the test data for NY is so large, we’ve blown thru my bandwidth quota for the month. I’ve upped it a couple of times, and we’re over that, too. So far it seems the site still works, thanks to the grace of my host.

But, I’ve made a change so that once you load the date for a state, the app saves it on your machine in the same place as the drf.xml files. If you then refresh the browser and reload the state, it grabs the data from your machine, saving a lot of bandwidth and…bonus…making it a lot faster to load.

I’ve tested this with NY, NV and a couple of other states (and with combinations of voting districts and block groups) and it seems to work. Please let me know if you have problems.

(Also, I know about the Indiana voting district problem and will get to that soon.)

Thanks.

SSP is taking the rest of the year off. Have a Happy New Year!

• Redistricting: Just a reminder to anyone who wants to reach for the golden babka — the last day to submit entries in SSP’s redistricting contest is January 10th.

• MA-Sen: Sean Trende at RCP has an interesting “what-if” analysis, trying to game out what the Massachusetts senate election results would look like if turnout and voting patterns shifted there in the same way they did in the 2009 VA and NJ gubernatorial races. A lot of caveats, of course, but the bottom line number is interesting – if ultimately implausible. (D) Republican Scott Brown, meanwhile, has raised $600K in December for his bid. (Update: Martha Coakley raised $1 million between November 20th and December 31st, according to a press release from her campaign.)

• MD-Gov: In a fundraising letter, Dem Gov. Martin O’Malley raises the specter of a comeback attempt by the man he defeat in 2006, ex-Gov. Robert Ehrlich. Of course, we don’t know if O’Malley actually thinks Ehrlich will run, or if he’s just using the possibility as a way to scare up some scrilla. (D)

• AL-07: Former Selma Mayor James Perkins has dropped out of the Democratic primary for Artur Davis’ seat, citing health reasons for his decision. That leaves the primary as a three-way contest between state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr., attorney and ArturD2 protege Terri Sewell and Jefferson County Commissioner Sheila Smoot.

• TX-10: Attorney and one-time TV judge Larry Joe Doherty, the 2008 Dem nominee for this seat, declined to run a second time. In an email to supporters, he said he felt it would be wrong to ask his friends to donate to him, since a victory here could be “snatched away in redistricting,” depending upon the outcome of the governor’s race. (D)

• MN-State Sen: SSPer MinnesotaMike gives us a rundown on the candidates who are lining up for the special election to replace retiring GOP Sen. Dick Day (of “Dick Day Afternoon” fame).

• NY-State Sen: The New York Daily News says that a Senate report is likely to recommend expulsion for Democratic state Sen. Hiram Monserrate.

• Maps: This cool site has maps showing the presidential vote by county for every election dating back to 1836. Go get your Van Buren on.

• Fundraising: Today’s the last day of the quarter to donate to your favorite House or Senate candidates. If you’re thinking about donating to someone, now would be a good time to do it.

I am wondering if anyone has access to the old congressional maps of 1992 for New York. This isn’t really for the contest; I’m just kind of curious. Thanks in advanced (I’ll delete the diary, as this really isn’t a diary, once I get it)!

More bad news:

State Sen. Laura Kelly (D) just announced she will be withdrawing from the race to face Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R-Kan.). She becomes the fifth formidable recruit to bow out in recent weeks.

“I have been forced to make a decision between honoring the pledge I made to the people in my Senate district and my firm conviction that the people of the 2nd congressional district deserve a truly independent voice in Congress,” Kelly said in a statement.

It’s not yet clear whether any Dem contenders of note will step up to run in Kelly’s place. The Topeka Capital-Journal notes that state Sen. Tom Holland had been considering a bid until Kelly launched her campaign; perhaps he may be interested in giving the race a second look.

RaceTracker Wiki: KS-02

The Swing State Project is changing its ratings on seven Senate and three gubernatorial races:

• AR-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• AZ-Sen: Safe R to RTW
• CO-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• IA-Sen: RTW to Likely R
• IL-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• PA-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• TX-Sen: Likely R to RTW

• KS-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
• OR-Gov: Lean D to Likely D
• TX-Gov: RTW to Likely R

We’ll be posting full write-ups for all of these changes soon. In the meantime, the end of the year seems like a good time to post our full ratings charts, especially given the number of changes we’ve just made.

Our Senate chart:

Races to Watch:

     AZ (McCain)

     CA (Boxer)

     HI (Inouye)

     ND (Dorgan)

     NY-B (Gillibrand)

     TX (Hutchison)

     UT (Bennett)

     WI (Feingold)

Our gubernatorial chart:

Races to Watch:

     AK (Parnell)

     IL (Quinn)

     NY (Paterson)

     UT (Herbert)