Tag: Texas

The hardest thing for me to remember when making GOP friendly gerrymanders is that a 50% John MctCain district isn’t a toss-up but a likely R district, similar in theory to a 60% Obama District. 5 points more friendly to the gop then the nation as an average implies that, but it is somewhat tricky for me, at least, to wrap my mind around it. However, that was my goal when I started North Carolina: create as many districts that went GOP in 08 as possible. After getting an 11-2 in a state that went for Obama, i figured a 36-0 in Texas was possible. and it was. One district voted for Obama by less than 1000 votes, so I’m going to count it. A 59% Obama district would be okay for most of us here… Without further ado, MAPS!

As always, ask me and i will provide a zoomed in map of whatever area you wish if it isn’t clear from the big one.

http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

El Paso: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 1 (Blue):  Mccain 56%, 56% Hispanic

El Paso and Odessa

District 2 (Green): M 53%, 63% H

Rest of El Paso and some nearby counties

San Antonio and Austin: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 3 (Purple): M 50%, 60% H

South San Antonio

District 4 (Red): M 51%, 50% H

North and West Antonio

District 5 (Yellow):  M 51%, 40% H, 10% Black, 3% Asian

East and North San Antonio

District 6 (Teal): M 50%, 72% H

Laredo and some Border counties, then up to West Texas

District 7 (Gray): M 50%, 66% H

McAllen and Border areas all the way up to Bastrop and Fayette Counties

District 8(Violet) M 51%, 62% H

Brownsville, Mcallen and then up.

District 9(Sky Blue): M 51%, 59%  H

Brownsville, Harlingen, up to Williamson and Milam counties.

District 10 (Pink):  M 50%, 35% H, 16% B, 3% A

Corpus Christi and up

Houston:  http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 11 (Lemon-Lime Green): M 55%,  55% White

South of  Houston

District 12 (Blue-Line Green) :  M 56%, 22% H, 20% H, 11% A

Some of the south-west of Houston and then surroundin areas.

District 13(Light Brown): M 53%, W 52%

Houston and some areas north

District 14(Gold):  M 57%,  W 61%

Houston and some areas north

District 15 (Orange): M 52%, 32% H, 19% B, 4% A

South of Houston, with a bit of the city

District 16(Lime Green):  M 52%, 39% H, 12% B, 4% A

Houston and Areas East

District 17(Navy blue): M 52%, 41% H,  16% B

Houston and Areas North East

District 18 (Golden Yellow):  M 56%, 56% W

North of Houston

District 19 (Puke Green): M 56%, 65% W

Wraps around 11-17

District 20 (Light Pink): M 52%, 59% W

Wraps around Austin and takes part of the city then to Abilene

District 21 (Blood Red): M 54%, 66% W

Parts  of Austin then  going to sparsely populated Northern Texas

District 22 (Poo Brown):  M 51%, 79% W

Austin and North Texas

Dallas-FW: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 23 (Robin’s Egg Blue): M 54%, 57% W

Dallas and some northern suburbs

District 24 (Dark Purple):  M 56%, 59% W

Dallas and Some Eastern areas

District 25 (Rose): M 54%,  59% W

Dallas then to some less populated eastern areas

District 26 (Silver) M 58%,   54% W

Dallas, FW, then to North Texas

District 27 (Sea Green) M 49%, 54% W

Dallas, FW, then to North Texas

District 28 (Pinkish Purple) M 60%, 57% W

Irving, then up to North Texas

District 29 (Gray Green): M 53%, 60% W

Waco and Forth Worth

District 30 (slightly lighter shade of rose then

the one touching it): M 55%, 60% W

Parts of Arlington, Dallas and Fort Worth

District 31 (Tan): M 61%, 71% W

North Fort Worth and Dallas then North

District 32 (Red Orange): M 64%, 79% W

North FW and then northern areas surrounding it

District 33 (I can’t name that many different shades of blue): M 63%, 80% W

North of Dallas

District 34 (Somewhat dark-green): M 69%, 75% W

Wraps around a lot of other districts, filling in a lot of gaps

District 35 (Royal Purple): M 62%, 64% W

Everything Else Part 1

District 36 (Not Flyers Orange, but I’m using it anyways): M 68%, 69% W

Everything Else, Part 2

This is not a perfect 36-0 Map. The last 5-6 districts could bleed some republican voters to some of the more borderline districts. However, in an ok to good year, the republicans win all 36 seats barring an exceptional democratic candidate.

Dave’s seems to have deleted my other maps. I’ll redo them later and either edit this diary or do a new one, depending on what you guys thing.

Now that we know that the Texas House and Governor’s mansion will be safely in the hands of the Republican Party during redistricting, I decided to draw a map using Dave Bradlee’s application that predicts what the Republicans might do.  (I used 1.0 instead of 2.0 because I had a previously drawn map that I could easily modify in 1.0.  If there is an easy way to convert a 1.0 map to a 2.0 map, then please let me know in the comments.) Again to be clear, this is a prediction of what I think the new map might look like, not what I hope happens.  I really wish I was sharing a more liberally friendly map than this one.  

It’s also a pretty boring map with the following objectives:

1) Keep all incumbents with their base voters, except McCaul.

2) Draw a Republican safe district for McCaul.

3) Draw a non-VRA Republican safe district using the suburban-exurban part of Nueces for Farenthold.

4) Draw a non-VRA Republican safe district using the Northern part of Bexar for Canseco.

5) Draw a new Republican safe district in Harris.

6) Draw a new VRA Democratic safe district in DFW.

7) Draw two new VRA Democratic safe districts from the current 23 and 27.

I suspect objectives (1)-(5) are real Republican goals, and objectives (6)-(7) will likely be required by the Obama DOJ.  Here are the maps with the pretty colors.

The state.

Greater Houston.

DFW.

Central Texas.

The Valley.

El Paso.

CD 1: (Blue) [31% Obama – 68% McCain, Wh 66%, Bl 19%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 12%] Tyler based district for Gohmert.

CD 2: (Dark Green) [41% Obama – 58% McCain, Wh 54%, Bl 19%, Nat 0%, Asn 2% Hisp 24%] Northeast Harris based district for Poe.

CD 3: (Purple) [43% Obama – 56% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 10%, Nat 0%, Asn 12% Hisp 17%] Plano based district for Sam Johnson.

CD 4: (Red) [35% Obama – 65% McCain, Wh 65%, Bl 12%, Nat 1%, Asn 2% Hisp 19%] Rockwall based district for Hall.

CD 5: (Yellow) [42% Obama – 57% McCain, Wh 55%, Bl 17%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 25%] Dallas based district for Hensarling.

CD 6: (Teal) [43% Obama – 56% McCain, Wh 54%, Bl 9%, Nat 0%, Asn 7% Hisp 28%] Dallas based district for Sessions.  Sessions district now goes up into Collin County making him significantly safer. (I switched the numbers on 6 and 32, because the color contrast was poor with 4.  It’s strictly a visual effect, and I don’t expect the numbers to switch.)

CD 7: (Silver) [42% Obama – 57% McCain, Wh 50%, Bl 7%, Nat 0%, Asn 8% Hisp 34%] Houston based district for Culberson.  This district is a little safer than his current district.  

CD 8: (Violet) [25% Obama – 74% McCain, Wh 76%, Bl 7%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 14%] Montgomery County based district from Brady.

CD 9: (Sky Blue) [76% Obama – 24% McCain, Wh 15%, Bl 39%, Nat 0%, Asn 10% Hisp 35%] Houston based district for Al Green.

CD 10: (Hot Pink). [39% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 68%, Bl 9%, Nat 0%, Asn 3% Hisp 18%] Austin/Waco/Johnson Country district for McCaul. Really, the only challenge in this map was McCaul. He lives in liberal Austin, which is a few hundred miles away from his base voters in one of the conservative parts of Harris County.  Furthermore, because of population growth in both Harris County and Austin, there is no way to keep this district together for him.  In fact, I used that part of Harris to draw the new Republican district mentioned in objective (5). A congressperson does not have to live in his/her district, so McCaul could hypothetically run for the Harris district.  However, there are several state legislators in that district, who are looking up, and he could get hit with a primary.  So, I really don’t think living that far away from a district is practical.  Hence, I drew him in with Johnson County, which is very Republican and is not home to a congressperson.  With Waco in this district, there is a chance Chet Edwards could run against him, but I doubt it.

CD 11: (Lawn Green) [25% Obama – 75% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 5%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 34%] Midland based district for Conaway.

CD 12: (Steel Blue) [36% Obama – 63% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 5%, Nat 1%, Asn 3% Hisp 32%] Fort Worth based district for Granger.

CD 13: (Dark Salmon) [25% Obama – 74% McCain, Wh 70%, Bl 5%, Nat 1%, Asn 1% Hisp 22%] West Texas based district for Thornberry.  This one though now spreads east and has a new conservative base in Wichita Falls.  

CD 14: (Olive) [39% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 56%, Bl 13%, Nat 0%, Asn 3% Hisp 27%] Galveston based district for Paul.

CD 15: (Orange) [68% Obama – 31% McCain, Wh 9%, Bl 0%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 89%] Hidalgo County based district for Hinojosa.  This district is much more compact.  [UPDATE: Several comments have noted that this district may be too Hispanic.  The 15 was after all one of the districts that the courts redrew in 2006.  That could very well be true.  This issue could easily be resolved by redrawing 15 and 28 (and possibly the new 33) similar to how they are drawn now to reduce the Hispanic influence in 15.  I considered doing this myself, but I decided against it.  One reason for my decision was that I ran out of time to work on this.  Two, I actually decided that the GOP could argue that (a) this district is compact and within a single community, (b) all of the neighboring districts are safely VRAs too, and (c) breaking up this district would break up a community, which is against the spirit of the VRA.  That’s not a great argument, but Justice Kennedy might buy it.  Since it gives the GOP a chance to weaken the Democrats in 28 almost down to a swing district, I wouldn’t be surprised if they made this argument. (See description of 28 below.)  Nonetheless, even if it doesn’t go as predicted, I suspect they will go with a fix by redrawing 15 and 28.]

CD 16: (Lime) [65% Obama – 34% McCain, Wh 14%, Bl 3%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 81%] El Paso based district for Reyes.

CD 17: (Midnight Blue) [33% Obama – 66% McCain, Wh 64%, Bl 15%, Nat 0%, Asn 2% Hisp 18%] College Station based district for Flores. This district was moved out of Johnson County and McClennan County to make 10 friendlier for McCaul.

CD 18: (Yellow) [75% Obama – 24% McCain, Wh 17%, Bl 32%, Nat 0%, Asn 4% Hisp 46%] Houston based district for Jackson.

CD 19: (Yellow Green) [26% Obama – 74% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 6%, Nat 1%, Asn 1% Hisp 32%] Lubbock based district for Neugebauer.

CD 20: (Pink) [65% Obama – 34% McCain, Wh 15%, Bl 4%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 78%] San Antonio based district for Gonzalez.

CD 21: (Maroon) [42% Obama – 57% McCain, Wh 68%, Bl 4%, Nat 0%, Asn 3% Hisp 24%] San Antonio/Austin based district for Smith.

CD 22: (Chocolate) [39% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 52%, Bl 8%, Nat 0%, Asn 12% Hisp 27%] Sugar Land based district for Olson.

CD 23: (Cyan) [33% Obama – 66% McCain, Wh 65%, Bl 3%, Nat 0%, Asn 2% Hisp 29%] North Bexar based district for Canseco.  As noted previously, this district is much more Anglo and Republican than the current VRA 23.

CD 24: (Indigo) [41% Obama – 58% McCain, Wh 63%, Bl 8%, Nat 1%, Asn 8% Hisp 18%] Southlake/Coppell based district for Marchant.

CD 25: (Violet Red) [69% Obama – 30% McCain, Wh 41%, Bl 10%, Nat 0%, Asn 5% Hisp 41%] Austin based district for Doggett.

CD 26: (Grey) [34% Obama – 65% McCain, Wh 72%, Bl 7%, Nat 1%, Asn 3% Hisp 16%] Flower Mound/Denton based district for Burgess.

CD 27: (Spring Green) [39% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 53%, Bl 6%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 38%] Greater Corpus Christi based district for Farenthold.  It is no longer a VRA district since it extends north.

CD 28: (Plum) [53% Obama – 46% McCain, Wh 24%, Bl 3%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 72%] Laredo based district for Cuellar.  This district however is not nearly as safe as it is today even though is still safely a VRA.  It could be a Republican target, but Cuellar is a staple in Laredo, so I doubt he is going anywhere.

CD 29: (Dark Sea Green) [70% Obama – 30% McCain, Wh 13%, Bl 22%, Nat 0%, Asn 2% Hisp 63%] Houston based district for Gene Green.

CD 30: (Light Salmon) [76% Obama – 23% McCain, Wh 15%, Bl 29%, Nat 0%, Asn 2% Hisp 54%] Dallas based district for Eddie Bernice Johnson.

CD 31: (Khaki) [43% Obama – 55% McCain, Wh 61%, Bl 12%, Nat 1%, Asn 4% Hisp 21%] Williamson County based district for Carter.

CD 32: (Orange Red) [39% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 64%, Bl 14%, Nat 0%, Asn 3% Hisp 18%] Ellis County based district for Barton.  (See comment about switching 6 and 32 above.)

CD 33: (Slate Blue) [58% Obama – 41% McCain, Wh 19%, Bl 2%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 78%] Corpus Christi/South Padre Island based district for Ortiz, possibly Ortiz Junior if Ortiz Senior is ready to retire after losing.

CD 34: (Lime Green) [61% Obama – 38% McCain, Wh 21%, Bl 8%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 69%] South Bexar/Border based VRA district for Rodriguez.

CD 35: (Orchid) [66% Obama – 33% McCain, Wh 29%, Bl 29%, Nat 0%, Asn 5% Hisp 36%] New Dallas-Fort Worth based VRA district for some Democrat like Royce West or Rafael Anchia. [UPDATE: curiousgeorge noted that this may not be a VRA district.  That is probably true.  After all, it looks a lot like Martin Frost’s old 24th district that the courts allowed DeLay to butcher in his mid-decade redistricting. Nonetheless, I still believe that there will be a new Democratic district in DFW.  Otherwise, at least one Republican would be seriously weakened.]

CD 36: (Dark Orange) [35% Obama – 65% McCain, Wh 61%, Bl 7%, Nat 0%, Asn 7% Hisp 24%] New Harris County based district for some Republican like Dan Patrick or Debbie Riddle.

Overall 24 R – 12 D.

[UPDATE: I corrected some minor typos, added racial percentages, and addressed the issue of 15 being too Hispanic.  There are some other minor issues with the map, but I think that the overview is about right.  Specifically, we’ll see a 24 R-12 D map with the Democrats representing the following: 3 from Greater Houston, 2 from DFW, 2 from the Valley, 1 from El Paso, 1 from Austin, 1 from San Antonio, 1 from Laredo, and 1 from South San Antonio to the border.]

Had a whole write up posted but it got deleted. No comments this time but you guys know the deal by now. Its a 17-16-3 Democratic gerrymander.

http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

El Paso: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 1 (Blue) 54 Obama 66 Hispanic

El Paso and Odessa

Lean/Likely D

District 2 (Green) 57 O 72 H

El Paso and tentacles

Likely D

District 3 (Purple) 56 O 78 H

Mexican Border and some other counties

Likely D

District 4 (Red) 55 0 74 H

Mexican Border and it snakes up

Lean/Likely D

District 5 (Yellow) 55 0 72 H

Mexican Border and Corpus Christi

Likely D

District 6 (Teal) 34 O 59 White

Counties that border the Gulf of Mexico and going inward.

Safe R

San Antonio: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 7 (Gray) 55 O 58 H

Southern San Antonio and surrounding areas

Likely D

District 8 (Lilac Purple) 54 O 54 H

Middle of San Antonio and some other parts of Bexar county.

Lean/Likely D

District 9 (Sky Blue) 33 O 69 W

Northern San Antonio and its conservative suburbs and exurbs.

Safe R

Austin: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 10 (Bright Pink) 55 O 57 W

Austin and its suburbs

Likely D

District 11 (Lime Green) 54 O 63 W

Austin

Lean/Likely D

District 12 (Periwinkle) 53 O 67 W

Austin and Killeen

Lean D

District 13 (Burt Sienna) 31 O 74 W

Waco, Temple and empty spaces

Safe R

District 14 (Gold) 25 O 66 W

A lot of space and part of lubbock

Safe R

District 15 (Orange) 25 O 66 W

More Nothing.

Safe R

Fort Worth: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 16 (Kelly Green) 52 O 51 W

Surprisingly Conservative Fort Worth

Toss-Up

District 17 (Navy Blue) 30 O 84 W

Suburbs of Fort Worth

Safe R

Dallas: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 18 (Golden Yellow) 59 O, 30 Black 19 Hispanic 5 Asian

Dallas

Safe D

District 19 (Puke Green) 54 O, 22 Black 27 Hispanic 2 Asian

Dallas and a few southward counties

Likely D

District 20 (Rose) 55 O, 39 Hispanic 14 Black 6 Asian

Dallas and Irving

Likely D

District 21 (Blood Red) 50 O, 54 W

Dallas  and surrounding areas

Toss-Up

District 22 (Poo Brown) 39 O 72 W

North of Dallas and FW

Safe R (Winnable with a great candidate in a good year or an incumbent in an ok one, but tilts very r)

District 23 (Robin’s Egg Blue) 35 O 75 W

North of FW to OK border

Safe R

District 24 (Dark Purple) 29 O 72 W

Wraps Around 19, 13 to the end of 11

Safe R

District 25 (Salmon)  35 O, 79 W

North Of Dallas

Safe R

District 26 (Dark Gray) 33 O, 77 W

Between OK Border and 24

Safe R

District 27 (Seafoam Green)31 O 72 W

Along the LA Border

Safe R

Houston: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

Note: I made a small error here in the large map. It is fixed in the numbers and in the close–up of houston (part of the district didn’t connect)

District 28 (Really Light Purple) 58 O  28 Black 13 Asian 26 Hispanic

Southwest Houston

Safe D

District 29 (Sage Green) 33 O 73 W

Northeast of Houston

Safe R

District 30 (Pinkish-Red near houston) 33 O 70 W

Wraps Around Houston

Safe R

District 31 (Pale Yellow) 39 O, 61 W

South of Houston

Safe R (See District 22)

District 32 (Bright Red) 37 O, 66 W

Wraps even closer around Houston then does 30

Safe R

District 33 (Denim Blue) 56 O, 24 B 7 A 28 H

Houston

Likely D

District 34 (Green in Houston) 51 O, 12 B 6 A 34 H

Houston

Toss-up

District 35 (Purple in Houston) 53 O, 16 B 3 A  43 H

North Houston

Lean D

District 36 (Orange in Houston) 62 O, 26 B 42 H

Southeast Houston riding up to Northwest Houston

Safe D

What I think makes this most effective is that the Democratic districts will only get more liberal over the Decade, cementing the safety of Incumbents and helping unseat any republicans who manage to pull an upset or win a toss-up.

Please reply, this took a while 🙂

And a big thank you for my girlfriend for help with the names of colors (You can tell which parts she left for, lol)

Continuing the thought experiment about what 2010 redistricting look might like under the “Wyoming Rule,” I give you Texas.  The mid-cycle Delaymander, together with the freak elections of Farenthold and (slightly less shocking) Canseco, several incumbents in the Dallas and Houston areas that are seeing their once solid districts become purplish (think Culberson and Sessions), means that likely the GOP is going to play tactical defense with redistricting this time around.  But the nice thing with adding 14 new districts (versus 3-4 in actual reality) under the Wyoming Rule is the GOP is able, in addition to protecting each and every one of its incumbents, to create several open GOP seats throughout the state.

The second thing I wanted to know what how exactly the VRA might place a monkey wrench in efforts to expand the GOP congressional delegation in Texas.  We know in reality, with a likely 35 or 36 seats after 2010, 2-3 of those will be new VRA seats (probably a new Hispanic district each in the Dallas-Forth Worth and Houston areas), plus perhaps a new Hispanic district in South/West Texas.  But, interestingly, under Wyoming-sized districts, even though there are more VRA districts, the GOP is still able under this map to gain 9 out of the 14 new districts (and that includes one VRA Hispanic district in West Texas that voted 55% for McCain!)  It turns out that the VRA will not prevent the GOP from locking down a likely 32-14 split in Texas’ congressional delegation under the Wyoming Rule.  Follow me below the jump for maps and a fuller explanation.

Now were this New York, they would sensibly label the districts in a coherent way, but this is crazy Texas which means having districts jumping all over the place!  But because I wanted to know where the new districts were going to be, I kept the numbers all the same and added in the new districts.  Since Texas is several states all onto one, I will divide my discussion here by region, starting with Dallas-Forth Worth.

Dallas-Fort Worth Metro Area

The map in the Dallas-Forth Worth area sees several major changes.  First of all, the VRA would require the creation of not one but two new Hispanic districts while turning Johnson’s 30th, which is currently a fusion minority-majority district, into a Black majority district.  But because all the Democratic votes get vacuumed up in three as opposed to one district, as is currently the case, the remaining two open seats created in the region are heavily favored to elect Republicans and all currently existing GOP incumbents are given safe districts.

District 3 (light purple) Johnson (R)

Obama 39, McCain 60

This district divides almost neatly into two given its explosive population growth and the smaller districts under the Wyoming Rule.  I decided to move this district completely into Collin County.

District 36 (light orange) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 39, McCain 60

Took swingy areas in northern Dallas County from Johnson’s current district and merged them with uber-red outlying areas in Collin County mostly now in Hall’s 4th.  Like any GOP mapmaker would do.

District 32 (dark orange) Sessions (R)

Obama 43, McCain 56

Proof you can still create a relatively safe GOP seat in north Dallas, once you create the new VRA seats.

District 5 (yellow) Hensarling (R)

Obama 34, McCain 65

Mostly a Dallas and East Texas hybrid, like now.

District 33 (blue in Dallas County) NEW HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 52, W 25, B 20

Obama 71, McCain 28

The first of two new VRA-compliant Hispanic districts in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

District 30 (mauve) Johnson (D) BLACK DISTRICT

B 53, W 29, H 14

Obama 80, McCain 19

To make 2 Hispanic districts in the Dallas/Forth Worth area and to gobble up Democratic voters in Fort Worth, Johnson’s district now gives up Hispanic areas in Dallas to the 33rd in exchange for black voters in Fort Worth.  In the real world of redistricting under a 35/36 district map after 2010, her district will likely be drawn in much the same way.

District 34 (green) NEW HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 52, W 30, B 15

Obama 61, McCain 38

This is the 2nd Hispanic majority district, this one a fusion extending from western Dallas to parts of Irving all the way over to Fort Worth.  Again, in the real world after 2010, GOP mapmakers are likely to draw the new Hispanic seat this way as well to maximize the amount of Democratic voters sucked into VRA districts.

District 6 (teal) Barton (R)

Obama 38, McCain 61

Largely as currently, a south Dallas exurbs and rural district with a piece of Arlington to remove all the most pro-Democratic parts away from the open 35th district next door.

District 35 (purple in Tarrant County) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 39, McCain 60

Should elect a Tarrant County Republican no problem.

District 12 Granger (R)(light blue)

Obama 36, McCain 63

Granger gets a considerably safer district now that minority areas in Forth Worth are removed into the 30th and the 34th.

District 24 Marchant (R) (dark purple)

Obama 41, McCain 58

Should be a safe district for Marchant as long as he wants it…  no longer goes so much into swingish Irving.

District 26 Burgess (R) (slate)

Obama 36, McCain 63

Confined just to Denton County now.

District 39 (light white/beige) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 23, McCain 76

I combined all the Dallas-Fort Worth exurban counties north, west, and south into one district instead of splitting them off in a million and one directions.  Should be safe for a firebreather as Democrats are an endangered species here.

East Texas

District 1 Gohmert (R) (dark blue)

Obama 30, McCain 69

Slight changes made.

District 4 (red) Hall (R)

Obama 29, McCain 70

Should be safe for the GOP when Hall retires or dies.

District 5 (yellow) (see writeup in Dallas-Fort Worth section)

District 6 (teal) (see writeup in Dallas-Fort Worth section) The only thing I’ll add here is that the 6th now cuts Waco in half with the new 40th, thus probably ensuring no return to Congress by Chet Edwards.

District 40 (burnt orange) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 39, McCain 60

Probably a safe seat for the GOP, Obama percentage is as high as it is due to abnormally high turnout in 2008 for him in Bell County.  Probably overstates Democratic strength a bit.  If Edwards were to try to get back into Congress, it might be from this district, but I still think the deck is stacked against him.

District 37 (light blue) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 32, McCain 67

East Texas gets a district of its own.  While this district at one time may have elected a conservative Dixiecrat in the mold of Charlie Wilson, I don’t think it will now.

District 17 (dark purple) Flores (R)

Obama 33, McCain 66

Removes the possibility of Edwards trying to take his old seat back by removing Waco completely and recentering the district more to the left-over areas from drawing districts in East Texas and the Houston area.  

Houston Area

This is one area where the VRA, once thought to be a major friend to the Democrats, actually surprised me in not being all that much of one (South/West Texas is the other).  Back in 2004, the GOP actually sensibly left three Democrats alone here.  A second Hispanic district is added and Lee gets a Black majority district instead of her current fusion minority-majority one.  Even though two new GOP suburban seats are created, all GOP incumbents are given safe districts.

District 2 (forest green) Poe (R)

Obama 38, McCain 61

Shrinks a little bit from before but basically the same.

District 42 (neon green) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 42, McCain 57

Was able to partition Olson’s district roughly in half into two successor districts, this is one of them.  Would be the congressman who represents the space center in Houston I believe.

District 29 (greenish-gray district right next to it) Green (D) HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 63, W 22, B 12

Obama 63, McCain 36

Perhaps the end of Green and an Hispanic congress-member at last from this district?  Cut in half from its current version to make another Hispanic district in the Houston area.

District 18 (yellow) Jackson-Lee (D) BLACK DISTRICT

B 56, H 24, W 15

Obama 85, McCain 15

Once you scrape off the Hispanic precincts and place them into a new Hispanic district, it is possible to create a Black-majority district in the Houston area, and something which the VRA would require.  In actual reality, after 2010, the Houston area is going to look a lot like I have it now under a 35/36 seat map as under a 46 Wyoming Rule map.

District 9 (sky blue) Green (D) MINORITY-MAJORITY COALITION SEAT

B 38, H 33, W 16, A 11

Obama 79, McCain 21

Very similar to what currently exists.  A very proactive Obama DOJ would perhaps require a black-majority district stretching all the way down to Galveston and over to Beaumont, but I don’t think the Texas GOP will concede such a district unless legally forced to.  I know if I were a Texas Democrat, I would draw such a very district!  In the latter scenario, this district would extend a bit further than now into Fort Bend (and scrape off a few more areas out of the 7th) and retain its mixed-race character.

District 41 (top lighter gray) NEW HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 58, W 30, B 9

Obama 58, McCain 41

Takes Hispanic areas currently in the 7th and 18th, and left-over areas from the 29th, and combines them into a district.

District 7 (lower slightly darker gray) Culberson (R)

Obama 41, McCain 58

Largely the same as before except with  heavily-Democratic Hispanic precincts cut out.

District 38 (light green) NEW GOP DISTRICT

Obama 40, McCain 59

Should be fine for the GOP.

District 8 (purple) Brady (R)

Obama 23, McCain 76

All of Montgomery County and a bit of north Houston County to equalize its population.  Very safe GOP.

In Fort Bend and south of Houston…

District 22 (brown) Olson (R)

Obama 42, McCain 58

Removed the Houston parts of the district into a new district as well as shaved off a few very blue precincts of Fort Bend into the 9th.  Olson should be fine.

District 14 (ugly green) Paul (R)

Obama 33, McCain 66

The incongruity of a congressman who doesn’t believe in flood insurance representing several areas prone to hurricanes gets me.  But then again, I understand very little that comes out of Texas!

Austin Area

With the smaller Wyoming-sized districts, it is prudent to pack Democrats of Travis County into one uber-Democratic district instead of trying to crack them as is currently the case.  Indeed, I would not be surprised if the GOP did this anyways in the real world after 2012.  Doggett isn’t going anywhere.

District 25 (mauve) Doggett (D) NEW MINORITY-MAJORITY DISTRICT

W 42, H 39, B 13, A 5

Obama 78, McCain 20

Packs Democrats and packs them some more into this one Austin-based seat.

District 10 (pink) McCaul (R)

Obama 43, McCain 55

Instead of going east in search of Republican votes to offset the still large numbers of Democrats leftover after drawing the 25th, this district now goes south to the exurbs of San Antonio.  Still, McCaul should like this district.

District 31 (white-yellow) Carter (R)

Obama 43, McCain 55

All of Williamson County and then dips south into a bit of Travis County to help spread the remaining Democratic voters out safely among the 3 districts surrounding the 25th.  If Williamson ever turns purple or blue, Carter may be in for some difficulty.  If the GOP had a long-term version, they’d concede a 2nd Democratic seat in Travis.  But I’m dealing with yahoos who think they can secede from the union for crisssakes!

District 45 (light blue) NEW GOP DISTRICT

Obama 42, McCain 56

This district completes the cracking of remaining Democratic voters out of Travis County by combining Democratic and lean-Democratic areas of Travis with uber-Republican areas north and northwest of San Antonio currently in Lamar Smith’s district.

San Antonio

Here the idea was to see whether I could create a VRA-compliant district that protects Conseco.  A Democrat could still win the district back, but I think I have achieved this goal.  Otherwise, Smith moves entirely into Bexar County.

District 21 (dark brown) Smith (R)

Obama 42, McCain 57

It is possible to draw an entire district in Bexar County that will continue electing Lamar Smith.  Amazing!

District 20 (pink) Gonzolez (D)

H 71, W 19, B 7

Obama 68, McCain 31

Packs Democrats in so that Conseco can be given a fighting chance next door.

District 23 (light blue) Conseco (R)

H 56, W 37, B 3

Obama 50, McCain 49

I believe this just barely meets VRA muster in that 56% is likely just enough to ensure that a majority of adults are Hispanic.  If not, the district can be tweaked a bit to ensure that it is.  About the best that can legally be done for Conseco under the Wyoming Rule.

District 28 (light pink/purple) will be written about in the South Texas writeup.

South Texas

District 27 (light green) Farenthold (R)

H 63, W 31, B 4

Obama 50, McCain 50

In a shocker upset, a white Republican now represents a heavily Hispanic South Texas district in the Corpus Christi area.  To give him a fighting chance, I carved out a new more Democratic district to its south.  But even though this district is still well within VRA guidelines, McCain still narrowly carried it.

District 43 (pink) NEW HISPANIC SEAT

H 73, W 24

Obama 54, McCain 46

Still impressed by how good Republicans do down here.  I guess South Texas Hispanics really don’t vote (because many of them aren’t legal citizens yet?).  A Republican could easily win this D+1 seat in a wave election like we just had.

District 15 (orange) Hinojosa (D)

H 70, W 26

Obama 52, McCain 48

Legally you cannot pack South Texas too heavily with Hispanics; hence all the thin narrow districts.  But that also means that none of these districts are all that Democratic in vote performance.

District 44 (dark red) NEW HISPANIC SEAT

H 76, W 21

Obama 56, McCain 43

South Texas’ other VRA mandated new Hispanic seat.  Again note how it would only be lean-Democratic.

District 28 (lilac) Cuellar (D)

H 81, W 13

Obama 68, McCain 31

Okay, here we get a Democratic-performing district, probably because of the little bit of San Antonio in the district.  Delicious irony from a GOP mapmakers perspective that one of former President Bush’s favorite Democrats gets the most Democratic district in South Texas!

Northwest Texas

Here I decided to create a GOP voting VRA Hispanic district that climbs up the spine of the New Mexico border.  After that, I decided to neaten up the district a bit; there’s no need for wild crazy lines when the days when the likes of Charlie Stenholm ever representing this region again in Congress are now gone and probably gone forever.  This is the most Republican region of all of Texas (of America?) when you take the Hispanics out and give them their own district.

District 13 (beige) Thornberry (R)

Obama 22, McCain 77

District 19 (ugly green) Neugebauer (R)

Obama 29, McCain 70

District is still 27% Hispanic even with the Hispanic district next door explaining the slightly higher Obama performance.  Still Democrats are an endangered species in West Texas.

Southwest Texas

District 11 Conaway (R) (neon green)

Obama 21, McCain 78

District 46 (light red) NEW HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 61, W 32, B 5

Obama 44, McCain 55

This is one way the GOP can screw the Democrats using the VRA.  



District 16 (green)

H 78, W 18, B 2

Obama 65, McCain 34

District shrinks due to Wyoming Rule, making it possible to draw a 2nd West Texas Hispanic seat.

So to recap, the map protects fully 21 of the current 23 Republicans in the delegation and gives the other 2 VRA districts they have a fighting chance of winning.  Then of the 14 new seats, using the VRA to pack Democrats, the GOP is able under this map to carve out 9 new districts for themselves, yielding only 5 to Democrats under the VRA.  Result, a delegation anywhere from 30-16 to 33-13 (given that Hinojosa now represents a R+1 district by PVI).  Yuck, yuck, yuck!!!

I have been analyzing the available early/absentee vote totals from the first three days of voting in Texas.  Texas makes the cumulative early vote and absentee vote totals for the 15 most populous counties available, and also has day-by-day breakdowns available from previous years, providing great data for analysis.

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/ele…

Early vote numbers are up in every county.  So being that the numbers aren’t release by party, how can we tell who is turning out?  My choice was to arrange the 15 counties according to the performance of Barack Obama in the county, to get a rough idea of how Democratic the county is (arranging by Kay Bailey Hutchinson’s performance in 2006 gave a nearly identical inverse arrangement).  Then, I compared the 2010 vote so far to the vote in the county at this point in 2006, to see if there was a correlation between increased turnout this cycle and how Democratic the county was.  I then adjusted it for change in voter registration between 2006 and 2010.

This chart shows that the average county has so far cast 1.8 votes for every vote cast in 2006.  The counties on the left voted more strongly for Obama, and the counties on the right voted more strongly for McCain.  There is a spike in the middle for two counties: Harris and Fort Bend, near Houston, which were both roughly split in the vote in 2008.  If you ignore them for now, and look at the turnout in Obama counties (52% or more Obama vote), in these counties 1.57 votes have been cast for every vote in 2006.  In the McCain counties (47% or less Obama vote), 1.65 votes have been cast for every vote in 2006.

These numbers indicate that the advantage in Republican counties in Texas compared to Democratic counties is very slight, an advantage of 0.08 votes in 2010 for every vote in 2006.  No indication of Democrats getting crushed here.  What’s going on in Harris and Fort Bend?  My assumption is that these counties, being from the Houston area, are influenced by the presence of former Houston Mayor Bill White in the Governor’s race.  Whether people are coming out to vote for or against him, I can’t say.  I have seen it mentioned that turnout has been heavier in parts of Harris County that are more Republican-leaning, though I can’t confirm that, and it doesn’t seem to be part of a statewide trend.  Voters in urban, conservative Tarrant County are turning out at lower rate than urban, liberal Travis County.

The turnout numbers as a percentage of registered voters seem to indicate that the partisan make-up of the county has little effect on turnout, so far.  In short: no enthusiasm gap.  There is one gap, though.  Among the top 15 most populous counties in Texas, the ones that voted for Obama (counting Harris) have cast 284,635 votes so far.  The ones that voted for McCain (counting Fort Bend) have cast 149,764 votes.

UPDATE: Here is the graph with the 4 Houston metro area counties removed.  It’s clear that Bill White is having an effect on turnout in these counties, so I think comparing other areas of the state make a more clear apples-to-apples comparison.

In the non-Houston counties, we have 1.57 votes in 2010 for every vote in 2006 in the Obama counties, and 1.47 votes in the McCain counties.  An enthusiasm gap which slightly favors Democratic counties!

With Texas looking to gain four seats after the Census, I decided to gerrymander Texas to protect the current twenty Republican representatives. In my plan, I try to create a realistic-looking map and I try to follow the VRA. In my opinion, there will need to be at least two, maybe three new VRA-protected Hispanic-majority seats. My plan draws two, but they’re not slam-dunks for Democrats, unless Arizona’s “papers, please” law mobilizes Hispanics to actually, well, vote.  Republicans will pick up two of the new seats for sure, and probably the third.

With the GOP likely in control of the House, definitely the Senate, a quite possibly the governor’s mansion, this is what I think the trifecta might do.

In the end, only two white Democrats should survive this plan, unless Gene Green gets primaried by an ambitious Hispanic politician. Also, Ciro Rodriguez-who doesn’t even live there in the 23rd anymore-gets a pretty tough district.

In the end, this plan should result in a 26-10 Republican majority, while substantially protecting all Republican incumbents. At the end of the decade, though, this could change. The ideal population numbers are all within a 1000, meaning the districts can change a little to get to the ideal number, 0. There is 3,963 people who I can’t find on the map; they voted 62-38 for McCain.

After reading the write up, scroll down to see my summary at the end.

Please enjoy!

P.S. I worked forever on this, so I will go crazy if I see some b.s. diary go up and bump it down. Y’all know what I’m talking about.

METROPLEX

TX-3 PURPLE

Incumbent: Sam Johnson (R-Plano)

Counties: Collin

Cities of Note: Plano, Allen, Frisco, Wylie, McKinney

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 42-57

White: 76 Black: 5 Hispanic: 10 Asian: 9 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The district is completely based in Collin County, which has grown tremendously. Johnson is safe and will be succeeded by a conservative Republican if he retires.

TX-5 YELLOW

Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas)

Counties: Anderson, Henderson, Wood, Rains, Cherokee (Part), Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part), Kaufman (Part)

Cities of Note: Arlington, Mansfield, Dallas, Mesquite

Obama: 41%

McCain: 58%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 36-63

White: 71 Black: 13 Hispanic: 13 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-12 LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth)

Counties: Tarrant (Part), Wise (Part), Parker (Part)

Cities of Note: Fort Worth

Obama: 37%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 36-63

White: 67 Black: 5 Hispanic: 23 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The district gets smaller, but Granger should continue to be comfortable here.

TX-17 DARK BLUE

Incumbent: VACANT

Counties: Hood, Somerville, Johnson, Hill, Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Arlington

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 32-67

White: 77 Black: 7 Hispanic: 12 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican if Edwards runs; Safe Republican otherwise

Chet Edwards must be really annoying for Republicans. I drew a new Arlington-based district, with some of Edwards’ old exurban territory. Like I wrote, part of the DeLaymander’s success was that Democratic incumbents had to run in areas unfamiliar to them. As talented as he is, I don’t see Edwards winning in reflexively Republican urban areas in Tarrant County. Plus, Waco isn’t even in the district, so he’d have to move. This might finally dislodge him.

TX-24 DARK PURPLE

Incumbent: Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell)

Counties: Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part), Denton (Part)

Cities of Note: Coppell, Irving, Dallas

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 44-55

White: 65 Black: 7 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-26 GRAY

Incumbent: Michael Burgess (R-Lewisville)

Counties: Denton (Part), Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Denton, Lewisville, Frisco

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 80 Black: 5 Hispanic: 11 Asian: 4 Native American:  0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-30 DALLAS ORANGY COLOR

Incumbent: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas)

Counties: Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Dallas, Fort Worth

Obama: 83%

McCain: 17%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 82-18

White: 22 Black: 52 Hispanic: 22 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district now goes into Tarrant to take in black-majority precincts to create a new VRA-protected black-majority seat in the Metroplex.

TX-32 ORANGE

Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R-Dallas)

Counties: Rockwall, Dallas (Part)

Cities of Note: Dallas, Garland, Richardson, Rockwall

Obama: 40%

McCain: 58%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 71 Black: 7 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 6 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Adding Rockwall County makes Sessions safer.

TX-33 DARKISH BLUE (Entirely in Dallas)

Incumbent: VACANT SEAT

Counties: Dallas

Cities of Note: Dallas

Obama: 67%

McCain: 32%

White: 25 Black: 17 Hispanic: 53 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

A new Dallas-based VRA-protected Hispanic seat.

HOUSTON AREA

TX-2 GREEN

Incumbent: Ted Poe (R-Humble)

Counties: Harris, Liberty, Orange, Jasper, Orange, Jefferson (Part)

Cities of Note: Humble, Baytown, Beaumont

Obama: 36%

McCain: 63%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 40-60

White: 68 Black: 15 Hispanic: 13 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Poe gets safer by subtracting a chunk of Beaumont and adding Jasper, Newtown, and Orange Counties. The Harris part of the district remains very conservative, so Poe should have no problems here until 2020 redistricting-or a sooner redistricting, if history is a guide.

TX-7 LIGHT GRAY

Incumbent:  VACANT

Counties: Fayette, Harris (Part), Colorado (Part), Fort Bend (Part), Lavaca (Part)

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 40%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 70 Black: 8 Hispanic: 14 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

By splitting remaining territory in Harris, one can make two pretty-safe urban Republican seats based in Houston. A lot of this is Culberson’s old district, but I think he’d run in the new 36th, which contains his home and is one point more Republican. The district might be competitive eventually, but for now it’s safely Republican.

TX-8 LIGHTISH BLUE

Incumbent: Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands)

Counties: Hardin, Tyler, Polk, San Jacinto, Walker, Grimes, Madison, Leon, Houston, Cherokee, Montgomery (Part), Jefferson (Part)

Cities of Note: Beaumont, Huntsville

Obama: 31%

McCain: 68%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 26-74

White: 75 Black: 13 Hispanic: 9 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

When the district was drawn in the DeLaymander, it was designed to unseat any East Texas Democrats. Now that it has done so, I can stop wasting so many Republican votes. I split Brady’s base in Montgomery, and I added some Democratic precincts in Beaumont. Still, it’s insanely Republican, and Montgomery should continue to grow, making it even more so.

TX-9 TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Al Green (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris (Part), Fort Bend (Part)

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 76%

McCain: 23%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 77-23

White: 17 Black: 37 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 12 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-14 ARMY GREEN

Incumbent: Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson)

Counties: Chambers, Matagorda, Jackson, Calhoun, Brazoria (Part), Harris (Part), Galveston (Part)

Cities of Note: Galveston, Baytown, Texas City, League City, Freeport

Obama: 37%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 33-66

White: 59 Black: 11 Hispanic: 27 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

An urban-suburban-exurban leftovers district, Paul and his nutty views should be safe here.

TX-18 HOUSTON YELLOW

Incumbent: Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 79%

McCain: 20%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 22-77

White: 18 Black: 46 Hispanic: 31 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The 18th is another safe black-plurality district in Houston.

TX-22 BROWN

Incumbent: Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land)

Counties: Harris (Part), Fort Bend (Part), Brazoria (Part), Galveston (Part)

Cities of Note: Sugar Land, Pearland, Pasadena

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 63 Black: 8 Hispanic: 18 Asian: 11 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The old DeLay seat, it gets smaller, but is still safe for Olson, who beat a great candidate in Lampson in 2008.

TX-29 GREENISH GRAY

Incumbent: Gene Green (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 66%

McCain: 33%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 62-38

White: 18 Black: 11 Hispanic: 68 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-36 YELLOWY ORANGE

Incumbent: John Culberson (R-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 39

McCain: 60

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58 (7th District)

White: 64 Black: 8 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

See TX-7 for analysis.

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO

TX-10 PINK

Incumbent: Michael McCaul (R-Austin)

Counties: Lee, Burleson, Washington, Austin, Waller, Travis (Part), Montgomery (Part), Harris (Part)

Cities of Note: Austin, Conroe

Obama: 36%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 44-54

White: 72 Black: 9 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Seeing how Montgomery County has grown tremendously since 2000, I split it up into two districts to help McCaul. The district loses some precincts in Austin and Harris County. If I were a Republican (I’m not), I’d feel pretty good about McCaul until 2020.

TX-20 BEIGE

Incumbent: Charlie Gonzalez (D-San Antonio)

Counties: Bexar

Cities of Note: San Antonio

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 64-36

White: 14 Black: 7 Hispanic: 77 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district gets more Hispanic and more Democratic. Gonzalez should be, and will be, fine.

TX-21 DARK RED

Incumbent: Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio)

Counties: Kendall, Comal, Hays (Part), Travis (Part), Bexar (Part)

Cities of Note: San Antonio, Austin

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 74 Black: 3 Hispanic: 19 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Smith is entrenched and should be fine here. I’d be concerned about Travis County’s booming population down the road, but for now the Travis part is swingy or leans Republican. Safe.

TX-25 PINKISH RED

Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)

Counties: Travis

Cities of Note: Austin

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 59-40

White: 49 Black: 11 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

Now entirely in Austin, Doggett is safe as can be.

TX-28 LIGHT URPLE

Incumbent: Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)

Counties: La Salle, Frio, Atascosa, Webb (Part), Bexar (Part), Wilson (Part), Guadalupe (Part), Caldwell (Part), Bastrop (Part)

Cities of Note: Laredo, San Antonio, San Marcos, Bastrop

Obama: 53%

McCain: 46%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 56-44

White: 36 Black: 4 Hispanic: 57 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district changes a lot. It’s a lot more San Antonio heavy, and Cuellar’s home might not be even in the district. Still, it should elect a Hispanic Democrat,

TX-35 PURPLE

Incumbent: Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio)

Counties: Mitchell, Nolan, Sterling, Coke, Runnels, Coleman, Concho, Schleicher, Menard, Sutton, Kimble, Edwards, Real, Kerr, Bandera, Bexar (Part), Guadalupe (Part), Caldwell (Part), Brown (Part)

Cities of Note: San Antonio, Seguin

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

White: 58 Black: 7 Hispanic: 31 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican

A new district in the San Antonio area, I combined a strip of San Antonio with Republican-leaning suburbs and parts of rural West Texas. Should be safe, unless Hispanics start voting. Rodriguez lives in the district I think.

FAJITA STRIPS

TX-15 ORANGE

Incumbent: Ruben Hinjosa (D-Mercedes)

Counties: Refugio, Goliad, Bee, Aransas, Jim Wells, Brooks, Hidalgo (Part), Cameron (Part), San Patricio (Part)

Cities of Note: McAllen, Harlingen

Obama: 62%

McCain: 37%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 60-40

White: 17 Black: 1 Hispanic: 81 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

Probably now the most Hispanic district in the nation, this would pass VRA muster because there is a new Hispanic district that borders it, the 34th District. McAllen based, it’s pretty similar to today’s 15th district. The new 15th should get incredibly more Democratic over the next decade if trends continue, especially if McAllen continues to grow.

TX-27 BLUEISH GREEN

Incumbent: Solomon Ortiz (D-Corpus Christi)

Counties: Nueces, Kleberg, Kenedy, Willacy, Cameron

Cities of Note: Brownsville, Corpus Christi

Obama: 53%

McCain: 46%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 27 Black: 2 Hispanic: 69 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-34 LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent:

Counties: Starr, Zapata, Jim Hogg, Duval, McMullen, Live Oak, Karnes, Gonzales, DeWitt, Victoria, Hidalgo (Part), Wilson (Part) Lavaca (Part), Colorado (Part), Wharton (Part), Fort Bend (Part)

Cities of Note: McAllen, Rosenberg, Victoria

Obama: 49%

McCain: 50%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 27 Black: 3 Hispanic: 69 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Tossup

A newly-created McAllen-based district, it’s swingy territory. I think it should elect a conservative Hispanic Democrat, but it has a R-leaning bent and should probably would, at first, elect a Republican Hispanic.

EVERYTHING ELSE

TX-16 GREEN

Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso)

Counties: El Paso (Part)

Cities of Note: El Paso

Obama: 65%

McCain: 34%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 66-33

White: 18 Black: 3 Hispanic: 77 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

No difference really, but it gets smaller. Safe Democratic.

TX-1 DARK BLUE

Incumbent: Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler)

Counties: Smith, Upshur, Gregg, Harrison, Nacogdoches, Shelby, Panola, Angelina, San Augustin, Sabine, Marion (Part)

Cities of Note: Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, Marshall

Obama: 30%

McCain: 69%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 70 Black: 19 Hispanic: 9 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Not much has changed. It loses a little land due to population growth. East Texas should keep electing Republicans. Gohmert, as crazy as he is, is safe.

TX-4 RED

Incumbent:  VACANT

Counties: Fannin, Lamar, Red River, Bowie, Cass, Morris, Camp, Titus, Hopkins, Delta, Hunt, Marion (Part), Kaufman (Part), Collin (Part), Dallas (Part)

Cities of Note: Paris, Dallas, Mesquite

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 73 Black: 14 Hispanic: 10 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

It’s pretty much Ralph Hall’s district, but I couldn’t justify keep Rockwall County in the district; Sessions needed to be made safer. Hall is getting up there in age, and he survived a good teabagging this year in the primary. Anyway, he could move here or another very conservative Republican could run here.

TX-6 DARK TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Joe Barton (R-Ennis)

Counties: Ellis, Navarro, Freestone, Limestone, Falls, Robertson, Brazos, Bell (Part), Milam (Part)

Cities of Note: Ennis, Bryan, Temple, Killeen

Obama: 36%

McCain: 63%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 40-60

White: 65 Black: 15 Hispanic: 16 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

I make no apologies (heh) to Barton for taking out Arlington, as he gets an exurban and pretty safe new district. However, Edwards might consider taking a shot at him, as Temple and Bryan are now in the district. Still, I would feel good about Barton’s chances.

TX-19  LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock), Chet Edwards (D-Waco)

Counties: Lubbock, Crosby, Motley, Dickens, King, Stonewall, Haskell, Throckmorton, Young, Erath, Comanche, Bosque, McLennan, Hamilton (Part), Palo Pinto (Part), Hamilton (Part), Bell (Part)

Cities of Note: Lubbock, Waco

Obama: 33%

McCain: 66%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 27-72

White: 66 Black: 10 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Leans Republican

This district will be a Lubbock vs. Waco district, with a spaghetti strange of rural West Texas in between. Edwards would have to get acquainted with a new district in inhospitable West Texas. Edge to “It’s a Baby Killer.”

TX-13 BEIGE

Incumbent: Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon)

Counties: A lot

Cities of Note: Wichita Falls, Amarillo, Denison

Obama:

McCain:

Old District (Obama-McCain): 23-76

White: Black: Hispanic: Asian: Native American: Other:

Projected:

TX-11 LIGHT ARMY GREEN

Incumbent: Mike Conaway (R-Midland)

Counties: A lot

Cities of Note: Midland, Abilene, Amarillo

Obama: 22

McCain: 77

Old District (Obama-McCain): 24-75

White: Black: Hispanic: Asian: Native American: Other:

Projected: Safe Republican

I think this becomes the safest GOP seat in the country…

TX-23 LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Counties: Medina, Uvalde, Dimmit, Zavala, Maverick, Kinney, Val Verde, Terrell, Brewster, Presidio, Jeff Davis, Culberson, Hudspeth, Reeves, Loving, Winkler, Ector, Howard, Glasscock, Ward, Crane, Upton, Reagan, Tom Green, Irion, Crockett, El Paso (Part), Webb (Part), Andrews (Part)

Cities of Note: El Paso, Laredo, San Angelo, Odessa

Obama: 42%

McCain: 57%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 36 Black: 3 Hispanic: 60 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican

A VRA-protected seat, it’s more Hispanic than the current 23rd. It’s way more Republican now, a net of 18 points more. Ciro Rodriguez doesn’t live here anymore, and the district is based in three different population centers: San Angelo, Odessa, and Northern Laredo.  A Blue Dog Hispanic could win here eventually, as Hispanics in the area might, you know, vote eventually. This district is likely going to go to an Hispanic Republican, but down the road, the huge 23rd might flip.

TX-31 LIGHT MUSTARD YELLOW

Incumbent: John Carter (R-Round Rock)

Counties: Williamson, Burnett, Blanco, Gillespie, Llano, Mason, San Saba, McCulloch, Mills, Lampasas, Coryell, Hamilton (Part), Hamilton (Part), Milam (Part)

Cities of Note: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown

Obama: 36%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-57

White: 75 Black: 6 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Again, this redistricting took countless hours. I kinda dared myself to try it out. I think it turned out pretty well…

Some thoughts: the DeLaymander was absolutely brilliant–in a nefarious sort of way. Just looking at the districts though, it’s almost inevitable that some districts start flipping our way. I think I used West Texas more effectively than it is now. I’ll add more later.

This diary takes a look at what might have happened if the 2003 Texas redistricting had never occurred. I compared the 2000 demographics and presidential results for the map used in the 2002 elections with the 2008 demographics and presidential results under the same lines. I used Dave’s App to do this, with the Test Data setting to get the political data, but the regular voting district map (without the Test Data setting) to get the correct demographic estimates. I also looked at the shifts for the districts during this time period and elaborated a bit on what might have occurred had this map remained in place for the rest of the decade. Please vote in the survey at the end as well. Thanks and enjoy!

Statewide Map

East Texas



District 1 (Blue); Northeast Texas-Texarkana, Paris, Greenville, Nacogdoches, Marshall

2002 winner and winning percentage: Max Sandlin (D), 56%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	75	16	7	0	651,619
2008 population (est.)	72	15	11	1	683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	-1	+4	+1	+31,798

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
64% Bush-36% Gore	69% McCain-30% Obama	+5% Republican, -6% Democratic

District 2 (Green): East Texas-Lufkin, Orange, Huntsville, Liberty

2002 winner and winning percentage: Jim Turner (D), 61%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	76	14	9	0	651,619
2008 population (est.)	73	13	12	1	683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	-1	+3	+1	+37,712

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
63% Bush-37% Gore	70% McCain-29% Obama	+7% Republican, -8% Democratic

District 4 (Red): North and East Texas-Longview, Tyler, Sherman

2002 winner and winning percentage: Ralph Hall (D), 58%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	77	12	9	1	651,620
2008 population (est.)	72	11	14	1	773,426
Change from 2000 to 2008	-5	-1	+5	0	+121,806

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
70% Bush-30% Gore	70% McCain-29% Obama	0% Republican, -1% Democratic

District 9 (Light Blue): East Texas and Harris County-Beaumont, Port Arthur, Galveston, Texas City

2002 winner and winning percentage: Nick Lampson (D), 59%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	60	21	14	3	651,619
2008 population (est.)	56	21	19	3	675,944
Change from 2000 to 2008	-4	0	+5	0	+24,325

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
55% Bush-45% Gore	56% McCain-43% Obama	+1% Republican, -2% Democratic

Dallas/Fort Worth Area



District 3 (Purple):Collin County and northern Dallas County-Richardson, Garland, Plano, McKinney

2002 winner and winning percentage: Sam Johnson (R), 74%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	70	7	14	7	651,620
2008 population (est.)	61	9	18	10	898,778
Change from 2000 to 2008	-9	+2	+4	+3	+247,158

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
72% Bush-28% Gore	60% McCain-39% Obama	-12% Republican, +11% Democratic

District 5 (Yellow): Dallas County and Central/East Texas-Dallas, Mesquite, Palestine, Athens

2002 winner and winning percentage: Jeb Hensarling (R), 58%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	63	16	18	2	651,620
2008 population (est.)	56	17	23	2	677,043
Change from 2000 to 2008	-7	+1	+5	0	+25,423

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
62% Bush-38% Gore	57% McCain-42% Obama	-5% Republican, +4% Democratic

District 6 (Dark Teal): Tarrant County and Dallas/Fort Worth suburbs and exurbs: Arlington, Ennis, Cleburne, Corsicana

2002 winner and winning percentage: Joe Barton (R), 70%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	72	10	14	3	651,620
2008 population (est.)	67	11	18	3	748,734
Change from 2000 to 2008	-5	+1	+4	0	+97,114

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
67% Bush-33% Gore	61% McCain-38% Obama	-6% Republican, +5% Democratic

District 12 (Periwinkle): Tarrant and Parker Counties-Weatherford, Fort Worth, Keller

2002 winner and winning percentage: Kay Granger (R), 92%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	71	5	20	2	651,619
2008 population (est.)	64	5	26	3	788,643
Change from 2000 to 2008	-7	0	+6	+1	+137,024

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
67% Bush-33% Gore	65% McCain-34% Obama	-2% Republican, +1% Democratic

District 24 (Dark Purple): Dallas and Tarrant Counties-Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Duncanville

2002 winner and winning percentage: Martin Frost (D), 65%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	35	22	38	3	651,619
2008 population (est.)	28	22	45	4	836,571
Change from 2000 to 2008	-7	0	+7	+1	+184,952

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
46% Bush-54% Gore	36% McCain-63% Obama	-10% Republican, +9% Democratic

District 26 (Dark Gray): Denton, Tarrant, and Collin Counties-Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, McKinney

2002 winner and winning percentage: Michael Burgess (R), 75%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	78	5	11	4	651,619
2008 population (est.)	70	7	16	6	897,454
Change from 2000 to 2008	-8	+2	+5	+2	+245,835

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
73% Bush-27% Gore	63% McCain-36% Obama	-10% Republican, +9% Democratic

District 30 (Salmon): Dallas County: Dallas, Irving

2002 winner and winning percentage: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D), 74%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	25	41	31	2	651,620
2008 population (est.)	19	39	39	2	726,340
Change from 2000 to 2008	-6	-2	+8	0	+74,720

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
31% Bush-69% Gore	21% McCain-78% Obama	-10% Republican, +9% Democratic

District 32 (Burnt Orange): Dallas County-Dallas, Farmer’s Branch, University/Highland Park, Irving

2002 winner and winning percentage: Pete Sessions (R), 68%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	55	9	27	6	651,619
2008 population (est.)	44	9	38	7	703,588
Change from 2000 to 2008	-11	0	+11	+1	+51,969

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
65% Bush-35% Gore	53% McCain-46% Obama	-12% Republican, +13% Democratic

Houston Area



District 7 (Gray): Harris County-western Houston, the Villages

2002 winner and winning percentage: John Culberson (R), 89%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	50	11	26	11	651,620
2008 population (est.)	43	11	32	12	746,517
Change from 2000 to 2008	-7	0	+6	+1	+94,897

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
68% Bush-32% Gore	55% McCain-44% Obama	-13% Republican, +12% Democratic

District 8 (Dark Lavender): Harris and Montgomery Counties-Jersey Village, Humble, Conroe

2002 winner and winning percentage: Kevin Brady (R), 93%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	77	5	13	3	651,619
2008 population (est.)	71	6	18	4	846,293
Change from 2000 to 2008	-6	+1	+5	+1	+194,674

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
78% Bush-22% Gore	71% McCain-28% Obama	-7% Republican, +6% Democratic

District 18 (Banana Yellow): Harris County-Houston

2002 winner and winning percentage: Sheila Jackson-Lee (D), 77%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	21	42	33	3	651,620
2008 population (est.)	18	41	38	3	779,948
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	-1	+5	0	+128,328

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
26% Bush-74% Gore	22% McCain-77% Obama	-4% Republican, +3% Democratic

District 22 (Brown): Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Harris Counties-Rosenberg, Sugarland, Pearland, Pasadena

2002 winner and winning percentage: Tom DeLay (R), 63%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	60	10	20	8	651,619
2008 population (est.)	52	12	23	12	866,297
Change from 2000 to 2008	-8	+2	+3	+4	+214,678

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
68% Bush-32% Gore	59% McCain-40% Obama	-9% Republican, +8% Democratic

District 25 (Dark Pink): Fort Bend and Harris Counties-Houston, Belaire, University Place, South Houston, Baytown

2002 winner and winning percentage: Chris Bell (D), 55%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	37	23	34	5	651,619
2008 population (est.)	32	22	40	5	683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008	-5	-1	+6	0	+156,401

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
48% Bush-52% Gore	41% McCain-59% Obama	-7% Republican, +7% Democratic

District 29 (Grayish Green): Harris County-Houston, Jacinto City, Galena Park, South Houston

2002 winner and winning percentage: Gene Green (D), 95%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	20	15	62	2	651,620
2008 population (est.)	16	13	68	2	825,305
Change from 2000 to 2008	-4	-2	+6	0	+173,685

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
39% Bush-61% Gore	31% McCain-69% Obama	-8% Republican, +8% Democratic

Central Texas



District 10 (Magenta): Travis County-Austin

2002 winner and winning percentage: Lloyd Doggett (D), 84%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	50	11	33	4	651,619
2008 population (est.)	45	10	38	5	809,987
Change from 2000 to 2008	-5	-1	+5	+1	+158,368

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
47% Bush-53% Gore	28% McCain-70% Obama	-19% Republican, +17% Democratic

District 11 (Lime Green): Central Texas-Waco, Georgetown, Temple, Killeen

2002 winner and winning percentage: Chet Edwards (D), 52%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	64	15	16	2	651,620
2008 population (est.)	61	15	20	2	742,620
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	0	+4	0	+91,000

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
67% Bush-33% Gore	61% McCain-38% Obama	-6% Republican, +5% Democratic

District 14 (Bronze): Texas Hill Country and Texas Coastline-Victoria, San Marcos, Calhoun, Seguin

2002 winner and winning percentage: Ron Paul (R), 68%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	58	8	32	1	651,620
2008 population (est.)	54	8	35	1	751,893
Change from 2000 to 2008	-4	0	+3	0	+100,273

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
66% Bush-34% Gore	62% McCain-37% Obama	-4% Republican, +3% Democratic

District 21 (Maroon): Central/West Texas-San Antonio, Austin, New Braunfels

2002 winner and winning percentage: Lamar Smith (R), 73%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	77	2	17	2	651,619
2008 population (est.)	74	2	20	3	779,551
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	0	+3	+1	+127,932

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
73% Bush-27% Gore	62% McCain-37% Obama	-11% Republican, +10% Democratic

District 31 (Beige): Central Texas and Houston suburbs/exurbs: Round Rock, Bryan, Sealy, Katy

2002 winner and winning percentage: John Carter (R), 69%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	69	9	17	3	651,620
2008 population (est.)	64	9	21	4	780,639
Change from 2000 to 2008	-5	0	+4	+1	+129,019

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
72% Bush-28% Gore	60% McCain-38% Obama	-12% Republican, +10% Democratic

West Texas



District 13 (Tan): West Texas-Wichita Falls, Amarillo

2002 winner and winning percentage: Mac Thornberry (R), 79%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	70	6	22	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	65	6	26	1	654,677
Change from 2000 to 2008	-5	0	+4	0	+3,058

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
75% Bush-25% Gore	76% McCain-23% Obama	+1% Republican, -2% Democratic

District 16 (Bright Green): El Paso County: El Paso

2002 winner and winning percentage: Silvestre Reyes (D), unopposed

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	17	3	78	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	14	3	81	1	683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	0	+3	0	+59,428

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
41% Bush-59% Gore	33% McCain-66% Obama	-8% Republican, +7% Democratic

District 17 (Iris): West Texas: Abilene, San Angelo

2002 winner and winning percentage: Charlie Stenholm (D), 51%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	75	4	20	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	71	4	23	1	683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008	-4	0	+3	0	+16,986

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
72% Bush-28% Gore	75% McCain-24% Obama	+3% Republican, -4% Democratic

District 19 (Pea Green): West Texas-Lubbock, Big Spring, Midland, Odessa

2002 winner and winning percentage: Larry Combest (R), 92%

2003 special election winner and winning percentage: Randy Neugebauer (R), 51%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	58	6	34	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	53	6	39	1	689,654
Change from 2000 to 2008	-5	0	+5	0	+38,035

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
76% Bush-24% Gore	73% McCain-27% Obama	-3% Republican, +3% Democratic

San Antonio and South Texas

District 15 (Tangerine): South Texas- McAllen, Kingsville

2002 winner and winning percentage: Ruben Hinojosa (D), unopposed

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	17	3	78	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	14	3	81	1	711,047
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	0	+3	0	+59,428

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
41% Bush-59% Gore	33% McCain-66% Obama	-8% Republican, +7% Democratic

District 20 (Light Pink): Bexar County-San Antonio

2002 winner and winning percentage: Charlie Gonzalez, unopposed

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	24	5	68	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	21	5	71	2	776,861
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	0	+3	+1	+125,242

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
43% Bush-57% Gore	36% McCain-63% Obama	-7% Republican, +6% Democratic

District 23 (Light Blue): West and South Texas: El Paso, Eagle Pass, Laredo, San Antonio

2002 winner and winning percentage: Henry Bonilla (R), 52%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	30	1	67	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	27	1	69	1	728,212
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	0	+2	0	+76,593

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
59% Bush-41% Gore	50% McCain-49% Obama	-9% Republican, +8% Democratic

District 27 (Spring Green): South Texas-Corpus Christi, Harlingen, Brownsville

2002 winner and winning percentage: Solomon Ortiz, 61%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	25	2	72	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	21	2	75	1	717,846
Change from 2000 to 2008	-4	0	+3	0	+66,227

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
49% Bush-51% Gore	43% McCain-56% Obama	-6% Republican, +5% Democratic

District 28 (Rose): South Texas and Bexar County: San Antonio, McAllen

2002 winner and winning percentage: Ciro Rodriguez (D), 71%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	21	8	70	1	651,620
2008 population (est.)	19	7	72	1	761,316
Change from 2000 to 2008	-2	-1	+2	0	+109,696

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
41% Bush-59% Gore	36% McCain-63% Obama	-5% Republican, +4% Democratic

So what would have happened in the past three elections had this map stayed in place for the rest of the decade? Often people assume that the Anglo Democratic incumbents who were targeted would have been reelected had the redistricting not occurred. This is definitely true in the case of Martin Frost, Lloyd Doggett, and Chris Bell, whose already Democratic and urban districts have shifted even more to the left since 2000. But the other Anglo Democrats largely came from more rural, Republican-leaning areas, and their districts all went for Bush in 2000. This list includes Max Sandlin, Jim Turner, Ralph Hall, Nick Lampson, Chet Edwards, and Charles Stenholm. Now let’s look at a county map of Texas showing the change between 2000 and 2008, with the congressional districts where Gore outperformed Obama superimposed over the map.



Despite a roughly 4% move towards the Democrats statewide between 2000 and 2008, there were 6 congressional districts where Obama  actually did worse than Gore: TX-01 (Max Sandlin (D)), TX-02 (Jim Turner (D)), TX-04 (Ralph Hall (D)), TX-09 (Nick Lampson (D)), TX-13 (Mac Thornberry (R)), and TX-17 (Charlie Stenholm (D)). Besides TX-13, all of these districts elected Democrats in 2002. In addition, all of the Anglo Democrats elected in districts that Bush won in 2000 saw their districts become more Republican over time, with one exception. TX-11 in Central Texas would have become notably more Democratic during this time period, and  its representative, Chet Edwards, is the only one of these men still in office as a Democrat.

However, I am not convinced that the marked rightward shift would have occurred inevitably had the boundaries not changed in the 2003 redistricting. Many residents in these districts were trending Republican at the presidential level, but felt comfortable continuing to vote for Democrats at the congressional level. But in 2004, the redrawn districts included areas that had previously been represented by Republicans or by other targeted Democratic members, meaning the advantage of incumbency was greatly diminished. This led to the defeat, party switching, or retirement of all the legislators listed above, but I believe, also contributed to these areas becoming more Republican at the presidential level in 2004 and 2008. Without the option to vote for a familiar incumbent Democrat for Congress further down the ballot, voters felt less inclined to vote for a Democrat at any level, including President. Had the 2003 redistricting not occurred, I believe not only that several of these lawmakers might still be in office, but Obama may have even performed better in these districts in 2008.

Other than the representatives just discussed, I believe that all of the other Democratic and Republican incumbents would still be in office right now, with the possible exceptions of John Culberson (R, 7th) and Henry Bonilla (R, 23rd), whose districts would have become much more competitive by the end of the decade. But I think this analysis shows that in the long-term, Texas is turning blue, and it is only a matter of time before the shifts to the Democrats in the Houston area, the Dallas/Forth Worth Area, and Central Texas finally push Texas into the Democratic column.

Rasmussen Reports released polling for the Texas Governor’s race today. Surveying likely voters, they found incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry ahead 48% – 44% over former Houston Mayor Bill White.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

(Per Political Wire)

White’s four point deficit is pretty spectacular when one considers Texas’ political leanings, the national environment, and the right leaning house of effect of the source, Rasmussen.

The Texas Governor’s race could be a bright spot in what appears to be a disappointing cycle for Democrats.

The race is even more important considering the upcoming redistricting fight. A win here would give Democrats at least some leverage in the process (if they fail to make the slim gains needed to take the Texas House of Representatives).

If Mr. White were to take the governor’s mansion, I speculate it would have immediate implications on the 2016 Presidential Election.

I believe that a White win would immediately make him a contender to succeed President Obama.

First, the voters Bill White appeals to are the same as those that Mr. Obama brought into the fold. These voters tend to be college-educated and live within cities and (to a greater extent) suburbs across America.

These are the voters in NOVA, in NC’s Research Triangle, in Omaha (yes, Omaha, the site of Mr. Obama’s lone Nebraska elector to the Electoral College), and even in Texas’ Harris, Travis and Fort Bend counties.

Bill White won his first election as mayor in 2003 37% – 33% – 29% and defeated Republican Councilman Orlando Sanchez 63% – 37% in the runoff.

His three terms as mayor of America’s fourth largest city were seen as wildly successful by most. He won his two subsequent elections with 91% and 86% respectively.

During this time, he made his first appearance on the national stage after Hurricane Katrina decimated Louisiana and Mississippi. He welcomed thousands of refugees to Houston.

Almost exactly a month later, he would help implement the largest evacuation in American history, an act that would make him the perfect foil to then-New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin.

As a result of his actions during and after these two massive natural disasters, Mayor White was given the Profile in Courage Award and named Governing Magazine’s Public Official of the Year in 2007.

Bill White has a great chance to pull off a stunning upset in the Lone Star State. The path to victory begins in the city he led for 6 years.

If he can post substantial margins in Harris county (which President Obama barely won 51-49) and in Fort Bend county (which Sen. McCain won 51-49) and make a strong showing in Montgomery county (where Sen. McCain’s 83,012 vote margin was the largest in the state and, to my knowledge, the third largest in the country), you’re looking at the newest Governor of Texas.

Of course, he will still need to turn out the large Hispanic vote across the state. He will also need to rack up big margins in Dallas county (Dallas), Bexar county (San Antonio), El Paso county (El Paso) and Travis county (Austin).

If White can do this, which definitely will not be a cake walk, I speculate he will instantly be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for the President in 2016 (if he runs).

As a former resident of Montgomery county, I can see him doing well in some of the more Republican friendly areas there and elsewhere.

All the rancorous, incomprehensible talk out of the current governor doesn’t play as well in wealthier suburbs. Yes, rural former dixiecrats and Palinites alike will eat it up, but I do not see those Kay Bailey Hutchison backers in Tarrant, Montgomery, Fort Bend, and Denton counties.

Bill White needs these voters. They are the stereotypical Texas Republicans of the 1950s. They are oilmen, soccer moms, college-educated and suburbanites. They are also overwhelmingly white.

This is not to discount the millions of young and minority voters who turned out for then-Sen. Obama in 2008. They are an integral part of the Democratic coalition. These voters are also extremely important in Texas and to White’s campaign; however, they are not enough to win this year.

In 2020, that may be a completely different story, but this year, Mayor White will need white, Republican suburbanites. He won’t need all, he won’t even need most.

But this year, Bill White will need a strong showing among them, at least for a Democrat, and anecdotal evidence out of Fort Bend and Montgomery counties tells me he has a pretty good shot.

Wouldn’t it be sweet, delicious irony that the man who (hopefully) defeats secessionist, Tea Bagger Rick Perry go on to be the Democratic successor to President Obama?

Greetings all –

I’m the writer/director of a new feature-length documentary about redistricting, a subject which I know is near and dear to many hearts here.  It’s called, aptly, GERRYMANDERING.  I’ve been working it now for about five years and the film will have its world premiere two weeks from today in the Discovery section of New York’s Tribeca Film Festival.

In the course of making the film, I got in touch with DavidNYC who provided terrific advice here and there.  When I let him know about the premiere he suggested I diary about it, so here goes…

GERRYMANDERING World Premiere!

Tribeca Film Festival 2010

Tuesday, April 27, 6:00 pm, Village East Cinema (181 Second Avenue at 12th Street)

Tickets are available now for Amex cardholders: http://www.tribecafilm.com/fes…

General tickets go on sale 4/19.  

If you can’t make the premiere, we’ll screen three more times:

Wednesday, April 28, 5:30 pm, Village East

Friday, April 30, 7:00 pm, Clearview Chelsea  (260 West 23rd Street (between 7th and 8th Avenues)

Saturday, May 1, 10:00 pm, Clearview Chelsea

Here’s the Tribeca FF description:

What is “gerrymandering”? You don’t have to wait for your oversized 2010 census envelope to figure out what exactly it means. Named for the Massachusetts governor who conveniently redrew a few erratic lines in 1812, gerrymandering is the redistricting of electoral boundaries to effect voting outcome in favor of a particular candidate, political party, et cetera. And why should you care? As the governor of California will tell you, the reestablishment of district lines takes away the voice of individual communities, reduces voter turnout and lessens competition among candidates. Whether it’s a community, race, or party issue, an issue it surely is.

Director Jeff Reichert gathers an impressive bevy of experts to smartly present a well-rounded exposé. From California’s struggle to pass Prop 11 to The Daily Show’s mockery of a gaggle of border-jumping Texas politicians, this accessible and informative documentary encourages us to put on our bifocals and more closely inspect the warp and woof of America’s democratic system.

–Ashley Havey

Residents of California, Florida, Texas, Iowa, DC, New York, Massachusetts, Louisiana or Oklahoma will recognize a lot of our shooting locations.  (Hopefully we’ll be able to get the film to the rest of the country soon).

For more info (and a quick, somewhat old teaser trailer) check out our website: www.gerrymanderingmovie.com

And if you have specific questions about the film, I can try to answer them in the comments…

In today's daily digest, it was posted that Team Blue and the GOP are trying to hammer out a compromise that would effectively split Texas' four new congressional districts: two for Democrats and two for Republicans. (The article can be found here.)

For a little while, I've been working on a diary examining whether the VRA helps or hurts Team Blue, specifically in the South. My first diary was going to be about Texas, specifically the Metroplex and the near-the-border districts. So, while that diary might still happen, I think it would be interesting to use Dave's Redistricting App to examine how this proposed compromise would affect the Texas Congressional delegation. 

DISCLAIMER: All districts are drawn as a Republican gerrymander, keeping with VRA restrictions. Also, incumbent homes are largely ignored.

As many of you know, Texas is supposed to gain four congressional seats from the upcoming Census. If they only gain three, then this is all moot, but let's assume that they'll gain four.

Over the past four years, the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex has experienced rapid population growth, specifically Hispanic population growth. In fact, the MSA grew by almost exactly 25% since the 2000 census–a little more than one million people. Therefore, the area should gain a district an a half.

As it stands right now, there are eight districts that occupy part of Tarrant County (Ft. Worth, Arlington) or Dallas County: seven are GOP seats and one is occupied by Eddie Bernice Johnson, who represents a minority-majority district that sucks up a whole lot of Democratic votes.

After the DeLaymander, DavidNYC posted a good explanation of the VRA that would affect any redistricting process: 

But #3 is, perversely, what gets us. The Voting Rights Act is a very complex piece of legislation, and the litigation interpreting it is very, very hard to get a handle on. But at its core, the VRA says that redistricters must try to maximize the number of "majority-minority" districts – ie, districts where cohesive minorities constitute a sufficiently large bloc such that this group's will is likely to prevail at election time. 

This means that Texas redistrict-ers must maximize the majority-minority districts in the Metroplex. After the 2010 census, if the GOP has control over of the Senate, the House, and the governor’s mansion (which is probable, but not a foregone conclusion), they must create two majority-minority districts, something like this:

The turquoise and the yellow snake-like districts in Ft. Worth and Dallas are the minority-majority districts.

Yellow District:

Obama: 80%

McCain: 20%

White: 27%

Black: 51%

Hispanic: 18%

Turquoise District:

Obama: 62%

McCain: 37%

White: 27%

Black: 9%

Hispanic: 61%

The rest of the districts all had 45% or less for Obama.

A black majority and a Hispanic majority district should come out of this process. The current 30th (seen below) has the 2000 Census demographics:

White: 36.6%

Black: 41.8%

Hispanic: 34.8%

There’s no way that could pass VRA muster right now. So, from the two new VRA districts in the Metroplex, Democrats automatically gain a safe seat without any deal.

Now, we explore Houston, where Hispanic growth has occurred over the past ten years. To accommodate the VRA, a new Hispanic district must be drawn. Further, both black plurality districts must remain. It should look something like this:

I used MattTX2’s bipartisan compromise as inspiration for the boundaries. However, my pink Hispanic district is much less Democratic. Here are the results:

Pink District:

Obama: 52%

McCain 47%

White: 35%

Black: 8%

Hispanic: 51%

Blue District:

Obama: 59%

McCain: 41%

White: 27%

Black: 12%

Hispanic: 58%

Beige District:

Obama: 79%

McCain: 21%

White: 17%

Black: 47%

Hispanic: 24%

Army Green District (Northern District)

Obama: 65%

McCain: 35%

White: 34%

Black: 38%

Hispanic: 22%

Now, the pink district is barely a Hispanic majority district, so it could be argued that there are not enough voting age Hispanics to make it a VRA-protected districts (I’ll get to that later). So, the district might need to change shapes and might need to add more Hispanic precincts (making it more Democratic). I would think that this would be a safe Democratic seat, so a Hispanic Dem would win here. Without the deal, we just picked up two seats.

Here’s where it gets complicated:

Southern Texas. Let’s ignore the El Paso seat because it’s a safe Dem seat anyway. Let’s also ignore the yellow suburban San Antonio seat because it’s safely Republican and not completely drawn (and Lamar Smith’s). Here, we have six VRA-protected Hispanic seats. They cannot be packed along the border (no McAllen-only district) because that would put too many Hispanics in one district, which was ruled unconstitutional after the DeLaymander.

Let’s go left to right.

PURPLE DISTRICT

Obama: 47%

McCain: 52%

White: 37%

Black: 3%

Hispanic: 58%

When Bonilla was the congressman for this district, it was R+14. After the DeLaymander, the district was ruled unconstitutional because it didn’t have enough Hispanics of voting age. Well, this district is 58% Hispanic now, compared to Ciro Rodriguez’s current district, which has 55%. So I think this would pass muster. This is where the GOP can screw everything up (and open a whole big can of worms). They can draw this district to elect a Hispanic Republican, but they will be open to lawsuits as it takes in heavily conservative white suburban parts–but, hey, it’s a gerrymander! We can still hold this seat, but it gets harder.

Red District

Obama: 54%

McCain: 45%

White: 33%

Black: 7%

Hispanic: 57%

This would be frustrating for Dems, as Cuellar now has to enter San Antonio. Still, this is a safe Dem district.

Green District

Obama: 50%

McCain: 50%

White: 27%

Black: 3%

Hispanic: 69%

A newly-created district, we would be competitive, but I think it would be hard. However, with changing demographics, I think this is winnable very soon.

The District With Brooks County (sorry, I don’t know what color that is)

Obama: 61%

McCain: 38%

White: 18%

Black: 1%

Hispanic: 80%

Corpus Christi District

Obama: 52%

McCain: 47%

White: 28%

Black: 3%

Hispanic: 67%

San Antonio Blue District

Obama: 66%

McCain: 33%

White: 19%

Black: 5%

Hispanic: 74%

Here are some more close ups:

What this means is that the Purple and Green districts would become ultra competitive (and lean Republican). Still, the demographics changes could eventually lead to a Dem flip.

Conclusion:

Even without such a deal, we will likely gain two seats due to the VRA anyway. In addition, one of the other added seats is a Hispanic majority seat in Southern Texas that would be a tossup.

Since the Dems have a little leverage (a possible gubernatorial win or a possible takeover of the House), they could push to take the two of the newly-drawn districts Dallas and Houston districts (which they’ll get anyway), protect Edwards, and draw all of the Southern districts. I think that would probably be the best.

And, lastly, this took forever!!! So please comment and tell me what you think.