Tag: Louisiana

11:32pm: One final update to play us out: The AP has indeed called a runoff for LA-03 (R). Jeff Landry must be gnashing his teeth at his 49.6% haul. Hunt Downer will probably have a hell of a time turning things around, having taken just 36.1%, and since I’d have to guess Kristian Magar is much more likely to endorse Landry. Still, this is probably good news for Dem Ravi Sangisetty in this long-shot race, since the runoff won’t take place until October 2nd! Anyhow, that ends the show.

11:07pm: Only a single precinct remains, and it doesn’t look like it’ll be enough to bump Landry from 49.6% back up to 50. Runoff time!

10:50pm: Just three precincts are outstanding in LA-03, and Jeff Landry has fallen below the runoff line — to 49.6% of the vote. One precinct is left in Landry-friendly Jefferson, and another in Lafourche, which split its votes fairly evenly between Landry and Downer.

10:40pm: The AP also calls LA-02 for Cedric Richmond, and over in LA-03, I may have spoke too soon. There are still 10 Downer-friendly precincts left, all in Terrebonne Parish, in the remaining 14.

10:34pm: We’re up to 96% done in LA-03, and Landry is holding steady at 50.3%. Looks like Hunt Downer is finished.

10:30pm: Things are tiiiight in LA-03, where Jeff Landry must hold the line at 50.2% (with 82% reporting) in order to avoid a runoff.

10:26pm: As noted in the comments, WWL-TV has called LA-02 for Cedric Richmond. With 21% in, Richmond has 63% of the vote. I’ll keep an eye on that one for a little longer, though.

10:14pm: We’re up to 11% of precincts in LA-02, and Richmond’s rolling with a 63-16 lead over LaFonta.

10:11pm: Chalie Melancon has won the Dem Senate nod in Louisiana. The AP has called the race for him, with 67% of the vote.

10:04pm: Landry now has a 52-33 lead on Downer with 43% in.

10:00pm: The AP has called the GOP Senate nod for David Vitter.

9:45pm: What a Downer! Landry now has a 51-37 lead on Downer with about 10% in.

9:43pm: Richmond’s now up to a 63-19 lead on LaFonta with 9% in. This is good news for Dems so far.

9:38pm: In LA-02, which is, from my perspective, the race with the most at stake tonight for Team Blue, Richmond now leads LaFonta by 58-20 with 6% of precincts reporting.

9:34pm: With six precincts reporting in the 3rd, Landry leads Downer by 48-44. Ultrabagger Kristian Magar has 9%. Whether or not this one goes to a runoff could be a close call.

9:30pm: Thanks to GOPVoter in the comments, we have some actual LA-02 results (neither the AP nor the SoS are reporting anything there so far). With 4% of precincts reporting, Cedric Richmond leads Juan LaFonta by 56-22, a few points above the runoff threshold.

9:19pm: Chet Traylor has surged all the way up to 8%, vastly exceeding expectations. In the 3rd, Landry has a 52%-38% lead on Downer, but we’re only looking at a couple hundred votes there so far.

9:08pm: With one precinct reporting (check out the LA SoS site), Melancon has 71% and Diaper Dave is at 92%. In the 3rd, Landry leads Downer by 3 votes.

9:02pm: Polls have now closed in Louisiana. This thing is about to go off.

8:51pm: It’s time to send this race to a farm upstate. The AP has called the GOP Senate nod for ’06 loser John Raese. He’s winning with 72% of the vote — a nearly equal share (in terms of %, not raw vote total) to Manchin’s 73%.

8:31pm: You don’t need money. You don’t need fame. You may not even need a credit card to ride the Ken Hechler train, but that’s a one-way express to nowhere. The AP calls the Dem Senate nod for Gov. Joe “The Manchine” Manchin. No call yet for the Republicans, even though Raese is cruising with nearly 70% of the vote.

8:11pm: I’m smelling an upset brewing. With almost 1% of precincts in, Hechler is hot on Manchin’s heels at 73-19.

7:55pm: And we’re off! A batch of early votes from Marion County are in, and Joe Manchin leads Ken Hechler by 83-10. (Stunner.) For the GOP, John Raese leads Mac Warner by 63-17.

Polls are now closed in West Virginia, where fireworks are about to go off as Joe Manchin faces off against the formidable 95 year-old Ken Hechler for the special Democratic Senate primary. Polls in Louisiana will close at 9pm Eastern.

---

RESULTS:

• Louisiana: Associated Press | Geaux Vote | Politico
• West Virginia: Associated Press | Politico

Saturday night is alright for hot congressional primary action. Polls close in West Virginia at 7:30pm Eastern, and Louisiana at 9pm.

LA-Sen (R): The race that never was. After being teased with the tantalizing prospect of cat fud for, well, years, David Vitter just never drew a Republican challenger of any substance despite his “serious sins”. The best he got was ex-state supreme court justice Chet Traylor, who has yet to break 5% in the polls. I believe that Crisitunity summed this race up pretty well earlier in the week:

Former state supreme court justice Chet Traylor’s late-breaking bid against Vitter was very interesting for the first few days, but at this point we might as well just close the book on it: his fundraising never materialized, his “family values” turned out to be as suspect as Vitter’s, and somehow he manages to be upside-down on favorables among GOP voters.

It’d probably be something of a minor accomplishment if Traylor could crack double digits tonight.

LA-02 (D): This Democratic primary — originally thought to be essentially to be the offer of a free House seat, although accidental GOP incumbent Joe Cao released an internal that suggests otherwise — was supposed to attract every ambitious New Orleans politician around. In the end, though, it really only attracted two of note: state Reps. Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta. The establishment, both local and in DC, also quickly got behind Richmond (who finished third in the 2008 primary that Bill Jefferson eventually won). The DCCC added him but not LaFonta to Red to Blue, and both Mitch and Mary Landrieu recently endorsed him. The lone internal poll of the primary made public gave Richmond a 53-13 edge over LaFonta, outside the runoff zone. (There are some minor candidates present, so a runoff is possible.) (C)

LA-03 (R): Three GOPers are in the race for this Cajun Country seat left behind by Dem Charlie Melancon: former Houma State Rep. (and Democrat until 2000) Hunt Downer, attorney Jeff Landry, and engineer Kristian Magar. Downer is the establishment pick, but we saw on Tuesday how far that may or may not get you in the GOP these days. The tea-stained Landry and Magar have both been hitting Downer, whose history as a Democrat might just come back to bite him. Landry’s outspent Downer ($297k to $282k) and has the CoH advantage as well ($234k to $126k). This race will head to a runoff should no one clear 50%; a mano-a-mano matchup against either ‘bagger may be more difficult for Downer to handle. (JMD)

WV-Sen (D/R): If Gov. Joe Manchin doesn’t win the Democratic primary for the race to fill the late Sen. Robert Byrd’s senate seat, we might have transitioned into an alternate universe. Manchin’s “main” opponent is Ken Hechler, “a 95-year-old former congressmen who represented West Virginia between 1959 and 1976 and also served in the Truman administration.” That means Hechler is actually older than Byrd was at the time of his death! Manchin’s already raised $1.2 million. No one else is even remotely close.

On the GOP side, richie rich John Raese is expected to win the nod against an even more uninspiring field. Raese has self-funded half a million bucks so far, and again, everyone else is scrounging for couch change. (Note that Raese spent more than $2 million of his own money running against Byrd in 2006, only to pull just 34% of the vote.) (D)

This is the second part of two posts analyzing Louisiana’s 2003  gubernatorial election, in which Republican candidate Bobby Jindal  narrowly lost to lieutenant governor Kathleen Blanco. It will focus on racial dynamics in the 2003 election. The previous part can be found here.

Race and Bobby Jindal’s 2003 Run

In my previous post, I began analyzing the electoral coalition that voted for Mr. Jindal. As a map of the election below indicates, he drew support heavily from the New Orleans suburbs, while doing extremely poorly in the rural north:

More below.

Discomfort with Mr. Jindal’s race probably accounted for most his underperformance in the rural north. Take La Salle Parish, for instance. Located in the northern stretches of Louisiana, the parish constitutes a typical example of the rural conservatism that backs much of the Republican Party. The district is very thinly populated; in 2003 less than 5,000 people voted in total. It is also quite poor; 2000 census figures indicate that per capita income was only two-thirds of the American average. And it is 86% white.

Like many of its rural peers, La Salle Parish usually votes Republican. It gave Senator John McCain 85.5% of the vote – which probably means that every single white person voted for Mr. McCain, and that every single black person voted for Mr. Obama. Mr. Jindal, however, received less than 40% of the vote in this staunch Republican district.

Interestingly enough, Mr. Jindal also did unremarkably with black voters. Exit polls indicated that he drew about 9% of the black vote in 2003. This was better than most Louisiana Republicans, but not exactly an impressive performance (reaching more than 20%, or even 15%, of black support is considered an extremely strong performance for a Republican politician – especially in the Deep South). African-Americans, it appeared, did not seem to view Mr. Jindal much differently from a typical white Republican in Louisiana.

White voters in rural Louisiana apparently did. A look at white supremacist David Duke’s 1991 run for governor provides a revealing context:

Of the 19 deeply conservative, mostly rural parishes that voted for Mr. Duke, only four could bring themselves to vote for a deeply conservative but non-white Republican. Mr. Duke won two-thirds of the vote in La Salle Parish.

On the other hand, Mr. Duke lost almost all of Louisiana’s conservative southeast; he only managed to win one of the suburban New Orleans parishes Mr. Jindal dominated. These parishes vote equally Republican, if not more so, as places like La Salle Parish.

The disparate supporters of Mr. Jindal and Mr. Duke point to an interesting division in the Republican coalition of Louisiana. Usually this division is not noticed, since Republicans generally hold it together well; only rarely does one leg of the coalition bolt altogether, as in the gubernatorial elections of 1991 and 2003.

Nevertheless, there are indeed two parts of Louisiana’s Republican base. One part, represented by northern Louisiana, is largely rural and poor; in bygone days it formed the core of both Huey Long’s support and the Solid South. The other, located largely in the suburbs surrounding New Orleans, is mostly suburban and relatively wealthy; it will vote for a Bobby Jindal but not a David Duke.

Indeed, these two strands of Republicanism are present not just in Louisiana but throughout the nation. Which strand the Republican Party decides to model itself after in the future will play a great deal in shaping the future of the party, as well as that of the nation.

Post-mortem: Following his 2003 defeat, Mr. Jindal campaigned heavily in the rural regions that had voted against him. In 2007, the Republican was elected governor with 54.3% of the vote; his next closest opponent won 17.6%. Mr. Jindal won almost every parish in the state, including many of the rural, conservative parishes that had voted against him in 2003 – proving that racism is not an impossible obstacle to surmount.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

This is the first part of two posts analyzing Louisiana’s 2003 gubernatorial election, in which Republican candidate Bobby Jindal narrowly lost to lieutenant governor Kathleen Blanco. The second part can be found here.

Bobby Jindal’s Strange Coalition

In 2003, an ambitious Bobby Jindal ran for Louisiana governor against Democratic candidate Kathleen Blanco. Despite holding a narrow polling lead throughout most of the campaign, Mr. Jindal ended up losing by a three-point margin.

The story of the coalition that voted for Mr. Jindal constitutes quite the interesting tale. It is much different from the Republican base as commonly envisioned in the Deep South.

To begin, let’s take a look at a map of the election – which is substantially different from most modern electoral maps. Here it is:

More below.

The first thing that strikes the eye is the sheer number of parishes Mr. Jindal lost. He was absolutely crushed in rural Louisiana.

This is a remarkable thing. In the United States of today, it is usually an accomplishment for a Democrat to win a state’s rural counties, even in a landslide. Democrats almost never win the rural vote when the election is close.

Mr. Jindal, of course, got 48% of the vote somewhere. As it turns out, these votes came mainly from the state’s most populous parishes. The state’s most populous parish – Jefferson Parish – voted for Mr. Jindal by more than a 3-to-2 margin. In New Orleans, with the endorsement of Mayor Ray Nagin, Mr. Jindal did as well as possible for a Republican, winning almost one-third of the vote.

In other words, Mr. Jindal used strong margins from metropolitan, suburban Louisiana to counter Ms. Blanco’s rural strength and New Orleans – a strategy more familiar to Democrats than Republicans.

Here is a more “normal” election in Louisiana:

Although it does not look like it, Republican candidate Suzanne Terrell did only one point better than Mr. Jindal.

There are substantial differences in their coalitions, however. Ms. Terrell did worse in the populous southeast, although the map does not show it well. She lost Baton Rouge (which Mr. Jindal won) and took only one-fifth of the vote in New Orleans, compared to the one-third Mr. Jindall racked up.

On the other hand, Ms. Terrell performed far better in rural, northern Louisiana – winning a number of thinly populated, poor parishes that Mr. Jindal lost. It was Mr. Jindal’s performance that constituted the aberration; deeply conservative, these parishes are a core part of the Republican base.

The next section will focus on the racial dynamics that caused this effect.

After a slow few weeks in late June and July, August promises to be quite exciting, primary-wise!

Here are some races to watch in August:

8/3:

MO-Sen (R) – Blunt v. teabagger

MO-04 (R) – Free-for-all

MO-07 (R) – open seat

Proposition C – It’s about NULLIFICATION!

KS-Sen (R) – Moran/Tiahrt

KS-01, 04 (R) – open seats

KS-03 (R) – Yoder v. Lightner

KS-04 (D) – will Raj Goyle get VicRawl’d?

MI-Gov (D), (R)

MI-01, 02, 03 (R) – open seats

MI-07 (R) – Rooney/Walberg

MI-09 (R) – Rocky v. Welday

MI-12 (D)

MI-13 (D) – Kilpatrick weak

8/5: (hey, two primaries in one week!)

TN-Gov (R) – open seat

TN-03 (R) – Wamp’s open seat

TN-04 (R) – clusterfuck

TN-06 (R) – open seat

TN-08 (R) – Kirkland v. Flinn

TN-09 (D) – impending Willie Herenton fail

8/10:

CT-Gov (D) and (R) – Lamont/Malloy and Fedele/Foley

CT-Sen (R) – ghost of Rob Simmons?

CT-02, 04, 05 (R)

CO-Gov (R) – McInnis and Maes double fail

CO-Sen (D) – Bennet v. Romanoff

CO-Sen (R) – the devil wears prada?

CO-03, 07 (R)

GA-Gov (R) – Palin Handel v. Newt Deal

GA-07, 12 (R) – more runoffs

GA-09 (R) – Graves v. Hawkins round 3

MN-Gov (D) – Dayton v. Kelliher

8/17:

WA-Sen

WA-03

WY-Gov (D), (R)

8/24:

AZ-Sen (D), (R)

AZ-03 (R) – Shadegg’s open seat

AZ-01, 05, 08 (R)

VT-Gov (D)

FL-Gov (R) – (yes!!!!!!)

FL-Sen (D) – Meek v. Greene

FL-12, 25 (R) – open seats

FL-02, 08, 22, 24 (R)

FL-02 (D) – challenge to a Blue Dog from the left, v4.1

FL-17 (D) – Meek’s open seat

AK-Gov (R) – Parnell and the ghost of Palin?

AK-Sen (R) – Murkowski v. Palin proxy

8/28:

LA-Sen (R) – Vitter v. Traylor

LA-02 (D) – Lafonta v. Richmond

LA-03 (R)

WV-Sen (D), (R) – Byrd special primary

I wanted to take a look at what redistricting might look like in three Southern states (Alabama, Louisiana, and Maryland) with large black populations if, within each state, three VRA districts were created. Right now, Alabama has one VRA district, Louisiana has one, and Maryland has two; this diary has maps that raise that number to three in each state. I also wanted to take a look at what the political implications of this would be on a state-by-state basis; would Democrats be hurt or helped by such plans? Please read on to find out more and leave your comments and feedback as well. Thanks!

Alabama

Statewide Map

District 1 (Blue): South Alabama-Mobile, Dothan, Montgomery

Demographics: 83% white, 11% black

This is a strongly Republican district that picks up the white parts of South Alabama and then snakes up north past Montgomery. Incumbent 1st district GOP Rep. Jo Bonner would easily win in this district.

District 2 (Green): South/East Alabama-Dothan, Montgomery, Troy, Auburn

Demographics: 48% black, 48% white (black plurality)

This district picks up black areas in South Alabama and Montgomery, and then goes northward all the way to Anniston. This district should be Democratic due to a slight black plurality. While current 2nd district Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright would probably love to have a district like this, he might be vulnerable to a black challenger in a Democratic primary.

District 3 (Purple): East Alabama and Birmingham suburbs/exurbs-Birmingham

Demographics: 85% white, 10% black

This is a very Republican district that essentially combines the eastern half of the current 6th district (Birmingham suburbs and exurbs) with the mostly-white and rural northern areas of the current 3rd district. The homes of two incumbent GOP congressmen, 6th district Rep. Spencer Bacchus (from Vestavia Hills in Jefferson County) and 3rd district Rep. Mike Rogers (from Saks in Calhoun County) are both in this district so they would likely face off in a primary that I think Bacchus would be favored to win.

District 4 (Red): North Alabama-Florence, Madison, Huntsville, Albertville, Gadsden

Demographics: 87% white, 6% black

This is an extremely Republican district in North Alabama that has some of Obama’s worst areas and would be easily won by the probable congressman for the current 5th district after the 2010 elections, Republican Mo Brooks of Huntsville.

District 5 (Yellow): Southwest Alabama-Mobile, Selma, Greenville, Tuscaloosa

Demographics: 51% black, 46% white

This district takes in many of the non-Birmingham areas of the current 7th district in what is known as the Black Belt, and it now reaches down all the way into Mobile. This district has a black majority and would be an open seat almost certainly won by a black Democrat.

District 6 (Teal): Northwest Alabama, Birmingham suburbs/exurbs-Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Cullman

Demographics: 88% white, 6% black

This would be a safe GOP district that merges the western halves of the current 4th and 6th districts and would likely be won by Republican Congressman Robert Aderholt, who lives in Winston County.

District 7 (Gray): Urban Birmingham and North Alabama-Birmingham, Gadsden, Huntsville, Florence

Demographics: 53% black, 41% white

This black-majority district brings the number of VRA districts in Alabama to three by picking up urban Birmingham and then snaking through North Alabama into Gadsden, Huntsville, and Florence. It will be represented by a black Democrat, probably either Teri Sewell or Shelia Smoot.

So overall, Democrats will likely gain from this map. While it essentially closes the door on ever winning any of the 4 white majority districts (all of which are now at least 85% white), it creates 3 districts that should easily fall into Democratic control, unlike the current map, which really only has one safe district for Democrats (the 7th district). So we would see a likely change from either 5R-2D (Bright wins in 2010) or 6R-1D (Bright loses in 2010) to 4R-3D.

Louisiana

Statewide Map

District 1 (Blue): East Louisiana-Baton Rouge, Hammond, Kenner, New Orleans

Demographics: 80% white, 11% black, 6% Hispanic

This is a very conservative and Republican district that picks up white areas between New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Incumbent GOP Reps. Bill Cassidy and Steve Scalise would face off in this district’s Republican primary, and it is about half and half of each of their old districts so neither would really have the advantage of incumbency.

District 2 (Green): South Louisiana and New Orleans-New Orleans, Hammond, Houma

Demographics: 52% black, 39% white

This is essentially a successor to the current black-majority 2nd district, although it must expand south and west to make up for severe population loss from Hurricane Katrina. It retains a black majority, and will easily elect a black Democrat, probably either Cedric Richmond or Juan LaFonta, to Congress.

District 3 (Purple): South Louisiana-New Orleans, Houma, Lafayette

Demographics: 80% white, 12% black

This district has many of the white Cajun areas in the current 3rd district, but now extends to the west to pick up much of Lafayette. This district would likely elect a Republican simply due to its overwhelming whiteness, although there would be a fight in the Republican primary between Hugh Downer of Houma, who will likely be the GOP Rep. for the 3rd district following the 2010 elections, and 7th district Rep. Charles Boustany, whose Lafayette base is now in the 3rd district.

District 4 (Red): West and North Louisiana-Lake Charles, Alexandria, Shreveport, Monroe

Demographics: 82% white, 12% black

This district is intertwined with the new black-majority 5th district, taking up white areas in Western and Northern Louisiana and ending up with only 3 whole parishes, the rest of the parishes in the district being shared with neighboring districts. GOP congressmen Rodney Alexander of Alexandria and John Fleming of Minden (in Webster Parish near Shreveport) would have to battle it out in a Republican primary that Alexander would be favored to win, although either would easily hold the seat in a general election in this heavily white and Protestant district.

District 5 (Yellow): West and North Louisiana-Lake Charles, Alexandria, Nachitoches, Shreveport, Monroe

Demographics: 51% black, 45% white

This new black-majority district snakes around the Mississippi and Arkansas borders and then stretches down all the way to Lake Charles, picking up many black precincts along the way. Perhaps former Congressman Cleo Fields would give it a try in this district, although any black Democrat would be favored to win.

District 6 (Teal): East and South Louisiana-New Iberia, Lafayette, Baton Rouge, Slidell

Demographics: 52% black, 44% white

This is the third black-majority district in the state, taking the black areas of Baton Rouge and Lafayette and the snaking along the border with Mississippi and then all the way down to St. Tammany Parish. It would probably be won by a black Democrat from Baton Rouge or Lafayette.

So Louisiana is another state where Democrats would benefit from having 3 black-majority districts. The balance of power would shift from 6R-1D to 3D-3R, a three seat loss for the Republicans and a two seat gain for the Democrats.

Maryland

Statewide Map

Baltimore Area Map

D.C. Area Map

District 1 (Blue): Eastern Shore and Baltimore, Harford, and Anne Arundel Counties-Annapolis, Aberdeen, Eaton, Salisbury

Demographics: 74% white, 19% black

2008 pres. results: 50% McCain-48% Obama

By trading heavily Republican suburban areas in Baltimore and Harford Counties with the 2nd district for Democratic areas in Baltimore and Anne Arundel Counties, this district becomes much more Democratic. While John McCain still narrowly won this district, Frank Kratovil would have no trouble winning this district as it is now mostly limited to Democratic areas and his base on the Eastern Shore.

District 2 (Green): Anne Arundel, Calvert, Harford, and Baltimore Counties-Annapolis, Bowie, Dundalk, Bel Air

Demographics: 86% white, 7% black

2008 pres. results: 59% McCain-39% Obama

This is now a heavily Republican district around Annapolis and Baltimore, a result of the creation of a third black-majority district. It was simply not possible to maintain a Democratic 2nd district and still have the three black-majority districts without threatening Democratic control of the 3rd district. As a result, this district was disproportionately packed with Republicans and gave John McCain a 20% margin of victory. We might finally say hello to Congressman Andy Harris, although he would likely be the only GOP member of Congress from Maryland.

District 3 (Purple): Baltimore, Howard, Montgomery, and Carroll Counties-Gaithersburg, Columbia, Westminster, Towson, Baltimore

Demographics: 69% white, 15% black, 8% Asian, 5% Hispanic

2008 pres. results: 56% Obama-42% McCain

This is a new district that stretches from Montgomery County all the way up to the Pennsylvania border. Both John Sarbanes and Dutch Ruppersberger would likely run in the Democratic primary in this district in order to stay in Congress, although they might split the Baltimore vote, allowing someone from Montgomery or Howard Counties to slip through. A Democrat should win here nonetheless.

District 4 (Red): Frederick, Carroll, and Montgomery Counties-Frederick, Westminster, Rockville, Gaithersburg

Demographics: 66% white, 12% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 10% black

2008 pres. results: 58% Obama-40% McCain

This map is not all bad news for Democrats, as GOP Rep. Roscoe Bartlett sees his Republican district split in half and replaced with two districts where Obama received 59% of the vote. The new 4th district combines most of the current 8th district’s portion of very Democratic Montgomery County with parts of Frederick and Carroll Counties. It has 8th district Rep. Chris Van Hollen’s home in Kensington and Van Hollen could easily defeat the very conservative Bartlett (who would also be 86 years old by Election Day 2012) in this Democratic district.

District 5 (Yellow): Montgomery, Prince George’s, Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary’s Counties-La Plata, Waldorf, Clinton

Demographics: 55% black, 33% white, 7% Hispanic

2008 pres. results: 78% Obama-21% McCain

The first of Maryland’s black majority districts, half of this super-Democratic district is made up of areas from Democratic Rep. Donna Edwards’ current 4th district and Chris Van Hollen’s 8th district, while the other half of the district comes from Democratic Rep. Steny Hoyer’s current 5th district. This new district is 56% black and contains Edwards’ base in Prince George’s County, although it also has Steny Hoyer’s base in Southern Maryland and the House Majority Leader would no doubt be difficult to topple in a primary. I think a primary would be very competitive between the two incumbents, so Edwards might decide to instead run in the new black-majority 8th district.

District 6 (Teal): Panhandle and Frederick, Montgomery, and Prince George’s Counties-Cumberland, Hagerstown, Frederick, College Park

Demographics: 65% white, 14% black, 12% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 pres. results: 59% Obama-39% McCain

This district is the second nail in the coffin for Roscoe Bartlett. The conservative rednecks living in the Panhandle are placed in the same district as liberal voters in Prince George’s and Montgomery Counties, and the University of Maryland’s campus in College Park is placed in the district as well. While Van Hollen’s home is in the 4th district, he could easily run here and win, even against Roscoe Bartlett. Former 8th liberal Republican Rep. Connie Morrella would have likely defeated Van Hollen here in 2002 though. I really don’t know which of these two districts Van Hollen and Bartlett would run in, but I think they would both elect Democrats.

District 7 (Gray): Baltimore City and Baltimore and Anne Arundel Counties-Baltimore

Demographics: 55% black, 38% white

2008 pres. results: 80% Obama-18%  McCain

This black-majority district takes up nearly all of Baltimore City and some surrounding areas. It is very Democratic and would retain Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummings as its representative.

District 8 (Lavender): Baltimore City and Baltimore, Howard, Anne Arundel, Prince George’s, and Montgomery Counties-Baltimore, Columbia, Laurel, Bowie, Greenbelt

Demographics: 55% black, 29% white, 8% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 pres. results: 84% Obama-15% McCain

This is the third black-majority district in the state as well as Obama’s best district, picking up black areas in between Prince George’s County and Baltimore. While Democratic Rep. Donna Edwards might choose to run here rather than face Steny Hoyer in a primary, it would likely be an open seat won by a black Democrat.

So it is definitely possible to make three black-majority districts in Maryland. However, would this plan necessarily result in three black representatives being elected? Districts 7 and 8 would easily elect black congressmen, although Steny Hoyer might continue to win in the 5th district despite its new black-majority due to significant establishment support. The three black-majority districts are not an obstacle to toppling Roscoe Bartlett, although they must sacrifice either John Sarbanes or Dutch Ruppersberger. The change after redistricting would be minimal, going from a 7D-1R (Kratovil wins in 2010) or 6D-2R (Kratovil loses in 2010) split to a probable 7D-1R split (assuming Kratovil wins the 1st district seat). Despite the lack of a change in partisan balance under this map, Democrats would probably want to avoid forcing Hoyer into a tough primary and losing Sarbanes or Ruppersberger, so this is one state where three black-majority districts would be a bad thing for Democrats.

Thanks for reading and please leave your comments and feedback!

In my latest U.S. Senate projections, posted a few weeks back, I opted to move the Louisiana race, between Republican incumbent David Vitter and Democratic challenger Charlie Melancon, from “Lean GOP” to “Safe GOP.” In fact, it was one of five particular races I gave special attention, given its notable shift in ranking amid my projections.  I moved this race further into red territory, given a) most polling conducted on the match-up has shown Vitter with upwards of a 30 point lead, b) Melancon’s campaign hadn’t ignited much excitement, and c) it appeared as though Louisiana voters had forgotten about or outright forgiven Vitter for the infidelity controversy that plagued his Senate tenure a few years back.

It’s now more than a week into June, and I feel this race deserves a second look.

Why? Because, while Sen. Vitter is doing incredibly well, given the shaky press coverage he’s garnered in recent years, the recent BP disaster has finally given Congressman Melancon, whose district has perhaps been most hard-hit during the crisis, his moment in the sun. And, what a tremendous job he has done.

While both Vitter and fellow Sen. Mary Landrieu deserve kudos for their PR handling of the BP crisis, it has been Melancon who really struck a chord, with both Louisiana’s residents and the nation, on this issue. He gave heartwrenching testimony to Congress regarding the oil spill’s impact upon the people of his district, and he’s hit the cable news circuit, establishing himself as one of the most affective communicators on the issue. I must admit, I’ve been quite moved by Melancon’s work in the past weeks, and I will be rooting for him for the remainder of this political season.

Of course, this begs the question – can Charlie Melancon really defeat David Vitter? Is this still a “Safe GOP” race?

Truthfully, at this point, it’s difficult to tell. LA-Sen has been a gravely-underpolled race, with only the conservative-leaning Rasmussen bothering to conduct polling on it this year. The last time a non-partisan outlet polled it was all the way back in July, 2009 (!), while Public Policy Polling showed Vitter with a 12 point lead. Which, for the record, only constitutes a “Likely GOP” ranking in my methodology, not “Safe GOP.” Rasmussen, for the record, found Vitter with a 24 point lead in both February and March, before giving up on polling the state.

With no help from the pollsters, it’s difficult to get a solid grasp on this race. In all likelihood, Vitter is still ahead, and at least by double-digits. 24 points, though? That’s probably a stretch. A 24-point lead in Louisiana means Vitter trimming a quarter of Democrats from Melancon, and that’s awfully unlikely.

Indeed, the potential good news for Melancon is that Democrats make up a plurality – about 40 percent – of the Louisiana electorate. The bad news? About a third to a fourth of those Democrats are conservative ones, “Blue Dogs” if you will. And the Republicans? They’re some of the most conservative in the country. The non-affiliated voters, who make up a fifth of the electorate, are also right-leaning.

If I had to take a stab on the outcome of this race, I imagine it looks something like…

Democrat – 40%

GOP – 38%

Independent – 22%

Melancon – 85%/10%/46% = 48%

Vitter – 15%/90%/54% = 52%

Which, would of course make this a bonifide toss-up. Despite my voter model, I suppose Vitter is perhaps ahead by more. If only Rasmussen would release its internal numbers, which it, unfortunately, does not. For the time being, I’ll give the benefit of doubt to Sen. Vitter, but Melancon could be on the rise.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

Greetings all –

I’m the writer/director of a new feature-length documentary about redistricting, a subject which I know is near and dear to many hearts here.  It’s called, aptly, GERRYMANDERING.  I’ve been working it now for about five years and the film will have its world premiere two weeks from today in the Discovery section of New York’s Tribeca Film Festival.

In the course of making the film, I got in touch with DavidNYC who provided terrific advice here and there.  When I let him know about the premiere he suggested I diary about it, so here goes…

GERRYMANDERING World Premiere!

Tribeca Film Festival 2010

Tuesday, April 27, 6:00 pm, Village East Cinema (181 Second Avenue at 12th Street)

Tickets are available now for Amex cardholders: http://www.tribecafilm.com/fes…

General tickets go on sale 4/19.  

If you can’t make the premiere, we’ll screen three more times:

Wednesday, April 28, 5:30 pm, Village East

Friday, April 30, 7:00 pm, Clearview Chelsea  (260 West 23rd Street (between 7th and 8th Avenues)

Saturday, May 1, 10:00 pm, Clearview Chelsea

Here’s the Tribeca FF description:

What is “gerrymandering”? You don’t have to wait for your oversized 2010 census envelope to figure out what exactly it means. Named for the Massachusetts governor who conveniently redrew a few erratic lines in 1812, gerrymandering is the redistricting of electoral boundaries to effect voting outcome in favor of a particular candidate, political party, et cetera. And why should you care? As the governor of California will tell you, the reestablishment of district lines takes away the voice of individual communities, reduces voter turnout and lessens competition among candidates. Whether it’s a community, race, or party issue, an issue it surely is.

Director Jeff Reichert gathers an impressive bevy of experts to smartly present a well-rounded exposé. From California’s struggle to pass Prop 11 to The Daily Show’s mockery of a gaggle of border-jumping Texas politicians, this accessible and informative documentary encourages us to put on our bifocals and more closely inspect the warp and woof of America’s democratic system.

–Ashley Havey

Residents of California, Florida, Texas, Iowa, DC, New York, Massachusetts, Louisiana or Oklahoma will recognize a lot of our shooting locations.  (Hopefully we’ll be able to get the film to the rest of the country soon).

For more info (and a quick, somewhat old teaser trailer) check out our website: www.gerrymanderingmovie.com

And if you have specific questions about the film, I can try to answer them in the comments…

Using Dave’s Application, I have drawn a redistricting plan for Louisiana.  It appears that the state will be losing one seat in 2012, so the plan here has six seats.  There is currently only one Democrat in the entire delegation, and this plan aims to make that two or three Democrats, including two African-Americans.  I tried to make the map so districts are relatively compact, no parish is split among more than two districts, and altogether only 13 out of Louisiana’s 64 parishes are split at all.  

Louisiana’s legislature is currently Democratic controlled, although it may switch to GOP or divided control by 2012.  The governor is a Republican.  Nevertheless, the state is about 1/3 black, and so out of 6 seats, two should ideally be represented by an African-American.  With preclearance and VRA requirements, it may indeed be possible to draw a plan such as this and the Obama DOJ may even aim at making such a plan mandatory (even if state government control was all in GOP  hands).  Even with a huge loss of population in New Orleans, two relatively compact African-American Democratic seats centered on New Orleans (LA-2) and Baton Rouge (LA-6), respectively, are still quite feasible.  

The third possible Democratic seat, LA-4, would be in the northern part of the state (with GOP control, it would perhaps be hard to draw the seat this way, but if the legislature stays Democratic, it may be possible, especially because the seat as drawn is quite compact).  I must admit I am not that familiar with the intricacies of Louisiana politics, so perhaps this plan would not work at all, but I’m throwing it out there anyhow.

District 1 – blue

81% white; 9% black; 21% Obama; 78% McCain

Suburbs and exurbs of New Orleans and Baton Rouge, this district would become perhaps the most Republican congressional district in the country under this plan.

District 2 – green

50% black (50%+); 40% white; 66% Obama; 33% McCain

Due to large population losses following Katrina, this New Orleans based district has to necessarily expand geographically.  I make it go into areas south and west of the city, maximizing black and Democratic numbers.  The new district is less Democratic than the current one (which is 74% Obama) but whichever Democrat beats Cao in 2010 should have no trouble here come 2012.

District 3 – red

73% white; 18% black; 28% Obama; 70% McCain

This district includes a good part of “Cajun Country” in southern Louisiana as well as the eastern part of East Baton Rouge parish.  The new seat is heavily GOP.

District 4 – purple

55% white; 40% black; 44% Obama; 55% McCain

If Carmouche had run under these new lines, he would have very likely won last year, as the current district is only 40% Obama/59% McCain and Carmouche lost to Fleming by a couple hundred votes.  Whether Carmouche or another Democrat can win here in the future is another story, but the district might be competitive at some point in the next decade.

District  5 – teal

77% white; 17% black; 26% Obama; 73% McCain

The new 5th combines much of the current 5th and 7th districts in central and southwestern Louisiana, and should be a GOP stronghold under this plan.

District 6 – yellow

53% black; 42% white; 57% Obama; 41% McCain

This new district includes most of Baton Rouge and most areas bordering the state of Mississippi.  The current 6th is only 41% Obama/57% McCain and this plan flips those numbers around to 57% Obama/41% McCain.  The district is sufficiently Democratic and African-American to elect a black Democrat here.

So that’s my plan for Louisiana. I welcome your comments.

Well, I checked the poll results from my New Jersey map and the most popular result was Louisiana. I next plan to do Minnesota or Georgia so you can help me decide by voting in the poll below. Mainly because of Katrina, Louisiana will lose one electoral vote. Unfortunately, most of the population loss comes from New Orleans, a Democratic stronghold. This means that I had to extend the 2nd district all the way out to Baton Rogue through some marginal territory. My main objectives were to keep the 2nd district at Black majority status, keep the 3rd district safe enough for a Democrat. Charlie Melancon, its current Representative is running for Senate so the district needs to be safe enough for him if he loses the Senate race and decides to return to the 3rd. It also needs to be safe for another Democrat who would replace him if Melancon beats Vitter. I was able to create the majority Black 4th district which is very convoluted. You will see it before I even tell you what color it is. I think the map will create a 3-3 delegation. Trust me, a Republican controlled Legislature and Governorship will never let this plan pass. Feel free to share your thoughts. The link to my maps is http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

District 1 Steve Scalise (R) Blue

This district contains St. Tammany and Livingston Parishes. It contains parts of Jefferson, Ascension, Tangipahoa, and Washington Parishes. I tried to make this district as Republican as possible and I think I got it to be somewhere in the low 70’s. I slightly increased the Black population to 14% and the white population is 77%. Since Bill Cassidy is losing his Baton Rogue based district, he might want to take a run at this one. He probably will lose to Scalise, the current 1st district congressman. This is definitely a safe Republican hold. Status is Solid Republican.

District 2 Joseph Cao (R) Green

Since New Orleans lost a lot of people through Katrina, I had to snake the district up into Baton Rouge. This was detrimental to my plan and may have inadvertently weakened a few Democrats. The district contains all of Orleans Parish, parts of Jefferson, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. John the Baptist, St. James, Ascension, Iberville, West Baton Rouge and East Baton Rouge Parish. This district barely has an African American majority and I hope that a Democrat holds it instead of Cao by the time they redistrict. It looks to me like a safe hold for a Democrat so we should not worry. Well, the stats are 52% Black and 39% White. Obama’s numbers here were probably between 58% and 64%. Status is Solid Democrat if Cao loses in 2010 which will probably happen.

District 3 Charlie Melancon (D) Purple

Before I tell you more about this district, I just want to say to Charles Melancon that I wish I gave you more Democratic precincts. I removed a lot of the river ones when I gave them to Districts 2 and 4. Anyway, the district has been Conservative while Melancon had it and he has been able to win not by nail biters. Since its original form has not been altered much, he could probably find a way to hold on unless a strong Republican ran against Melancon. Unfortunately, I put in some Republican precincts in East Baton Rogue but I think they should not alter the district too much. They might encourage Bill Cassidy to run in this district. Since he is unfamiliar to the voters outside of the Baton Rogue area, he does not have a strong chance of winning. The stats for the district are 24% Black and 69% White. They are the same as the current demographics for the district so I think Melancon will hold it unless Boustany decides to bail out and not run in the 6th. This district should vote Democratic in statewide elections. Status: Likely Democrat if Melancon runs without the 6th district congressman, Lean Republican if he does not.

District 4 No Incumbent Red

Boy, did I try here to pull off one. I created it to connect precincts with African Americans from Baton Rouge to Shreveport! It meanders along the river then extending across the northern border into Shreveport. It snakes into Monroe to take in a few Black precincts. Still, the northern parishes are Conservative and they drastically reduced the Black percentage of the population. Also, I had to extend the district to the east a bit because the 1st had too many people. I did it reluctantly but the eastern areas should not offset the Democratic areas enough. I do not know who would run here but I think Dan Cazayoux might want to give it a go. Or the guy who almost won the Shreveport seat might try too and since the bases are equal, this could trigger a large primary on the Democratic side. The Black population is 51% and the White population is 44%. This means that the district is now protected under the Voting Rights Act. It resembles the Cleo Fields district from the 90’s but this district is now much more Democratic. I estimate Obama won in this district somewhere in the range of 53% to 57%. Unless the Republicans can find a credible challenger, this district appears to be headed for the Democratic column. Status is Likely Democratic.

District 5 Rodney Alexander vs. John Fleming Yellow

Stats are 26% African American, 70% white. You could say that this district is the leftovers from the 4th district. The 5th district is meant to be safe for whichever Republican wins it. It should be safe for him and McCain probably won it within the 65% range. It contains the northern part of the state except for most of Shreveport, the border with Arkansas and the Mississippi River. Alexander could have a competitive primary with John Fleming but Alexander should probably win because the new 5th contains more of his district. Status is safe Republican.

District 6 Charles Boustany (R) Teal

This district closely resembles the old one. It has a 24% Black population and a 70% white one. I estimate McCain won this in the neighborhood of 66% of the vote. It takes in part of Lafayette and goes up the Texas border almost to Shreveport. John Fleming might take a go at this district but would probably lose to Boustany. This district might be competitive in statewide elections but in national races, the Republican hold it. Status is Safe Republican.